I agree, but since then he was caught in a really good armbar by Marin but sage gritted it out and was able to take the pain but get out of it. Marin is just as good a bjj practitioner as sage. Also none of us really know how tight it was. If you listen to the post fight interview Barbarena says it something he has caught from that position before in training so he knows it was gonna work and he felt it was really tight. So I don't think we should just take it as sage "quiting". I'll agree sage might be iffy on the ground but I don't think you can say he has no heart. You don't beat UFC caliber guys if you have no heart
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Hector Sandoval vs. Fredy Serrano: I have Serrano as the slight fav at around -125. He's a better wrestler, more explosive, and has the reach and power on the feet. If Sandoval drags this fight deep I think he will have the better cardio and could win rd.3 but will likely find himself down two rounds at that point. A small bit of value here on Serrano IMO. I may consider a small play.Comment -
The_Rudester need to watch some tape. He has looked very impressive, but equally impressively bad in terms of striking defence. And thats why youll get -140 and not -200 or -250.Comment -
To be honest I do not really like this card and the match ups. I like the heart Perry has shown and I actually had some kind of read on him his last 2 fights (during weight ins) were I really thought he'd get the win and sure enough he has won both times as underdog. Let's just say I like what I've seen from Perry and I think Jouban isn't a top fighter in the UFC. I totally agree with the defensive issues he has but I think he might pull it off one more time and get the win this one before his opponents become a lot tougher. Seen some video and he predicted to win first round KO and he plans on calling out 4 fighters. LOL. I like the confidence this may be a coin flip but I'll take my chances on this one and it will be my only ufc wager for the night.Comment -
I def see some holes with jouban that he may exploit, but i just think it may go both ways. What i do like with perry, is that he hardly backs down. He is fearless, as long as he wont get badly clipped, he will win the fight. My issues with him is that, he might get clipped. And it seems that he doesnt care if he gets hit. At some point you should start caring, because youre gonna get knocked the fack out for that. He seems like a stupid type of person, and he fights stupid, so i expect stupid things from that guy. I wont lay money down for that shit. But good luck!Comment -
really liking this parlay: northcutt dec, perry moneyline, and covington/bambam goes to decision -- 15.5:1 payoutComment -
I made a comment and his buddy hit me up on facebook with a first round KO guarantee lol....really that's why I like Jouban---he is fast and precise---little ballzy on occasion but I think he will know to stay away from MP's big shots....MP defense is garbage IMO...Comment -
Part 2 -MMAMANIA part 1 previews and short reads -
135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. Takeya Mizugaki
A 1-3 skid, kicked off by a spinning back kick knockout from Renan Barao and capped off by a one-sided decision loss to Bryan Caraway, seemed to signal the end of Eddie Wineland's (22-11-1) days as a top Bantamweight. After nearly one year out of the cage, he returned in September to upset Frankie Saenz by knockout and earn his second "Performance of the Night" bonus.
Five of his last six wins have come via knockout.
Once stuck alternating wins and losses, Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) turned the corner in 2012 and rattled off five consecutive wins, including decisions over Bryan Caraway and Francisco Rivera. He is 1-3 since, all losses by stoppage and a decision over George Roop the sole bright spot.
This will be his eighteenth fight since his World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) debut opposite Miguel Torres.
Mizugaki hasn’t lost to bad fighters by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the way he’s lost that troubles me. His swarming demands durability that I’m no longer convinced he possesses. Though Wineland’s had his own issues, the Saenz fight saw him seemingly shake off the passivity that plagued him during his slump.
That’s bad news for Mizugaki, who has never been hard to hit at the best of times.
Were I confident that Mizugaki could withstand that right hand, I’d pick him by decision. I’m not, so I say Wineland plugs him late in the first.
Prediction: Wineland by first-round technical knockout
125 lbs.: Fredy Serrano vs. Hector Sandoval
Colombia’s Fredy Serrano (3-1) fell short in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Latin America," but managed to stop Bentley Syler and Yao Zhikui in the Octagon itself, earning "Performance of the Night" for the former. His unbeaten run came to an end last July at the hands of Ryan Benoit, who won a split decision in a rather oddball fight.
He is a full seven years older than Hector Sandoval (12-3).
Sandoval earned multiple Flyweight belts during his career, including the Tachi Palace Fights, West Coast FC and Global Knockout titles. Most recently, he stepped up on short notice at UFC 201 and suffered a first-round submission loss to Wilson Reis.
He owns three wins via (technical) knockout and two by submission.
If Serrano had come into mixed martial arts (MMA) 10 years earlier, he’d be a serious threat. As is, he’s capable and athletic, but can’t bring his wrestling pedigree to bear as much as he needs to. Against the vastly more experienced Sandoval, decent takedowns and heavy hands just aren’t enough.
Sandoval’s aggression, speed and scrambling ability ought to be enough to overcome Serrano’s physical strength. He out-lands "El Profe" on the feet and steers clear of bad positions on the mat for a clear decision win.
Prediction: Sandoval via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Sultan Aliev vs. Bojan Velickovic
After a questionable decision loss to Doug Marshall ended his Bellator MMA run, Sultan Aliev (13-2) picked up four consecutive knockouts on the international circuit to punch his ticket to UFC. Once there, he suffered a one-punch knockout loss to Kenny Robertson and suffered an injury before a planned fight with Hyun Gyu Lim.
This will be his first fight in almost 23 months, the longest layoff of his career.
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) entered UFC as the RFA Welterweight champion and extended his win streak to five with a decision over Alessio Di Chirico in his Octagon debut. His next time out, he fought TUF veteran Michael Graves to a majority draw at UFC 201.
"Serbian Steel" owns eight professional victories by submission.
This is frustrating. In a vacuum, I’d pick Aliev in a heartbeat -- Velickovic is a decent grappler, but his striking is rudimentary and he hasn’t yet learned to parlay his size into powerful wrestling. Aliev, meanwhile, is a more proven takedown artist and power puncher.
This isn’t a vacuum, unfortunately, and there’s Aliev’s monster layoff to consider.
Still, he has enough of an edge that I’m picking him anyway. Whatever chin issues he demonstrated against Robertson, Velickovic is ill-equipped to replicate that feat and I don’t imagine his bulk troubling someone with a history of manhandling Middleweights. So long as Aliev’s gas tank stays intact, expect him to control the grappling before putting away the Serb with strikes.
Prediction: Aliev via first-round technical knockout
205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Luis Henrique da Silva
Paul Craig (8-0) hasn’t needed a baseball bat to run through the European circuit, stopping all eight of his professional opponents. His run includes seven first-round finishes, a win over Irish prospect Karl Moore and a successful bid for the BAMMA Light Heavyweight title in Nov. 2015.
Of those eight stoppage wins, seven came by submission.
Luis Henrique da Silva (12-0) knocked out UFC veteran Ildemar Alcantara in his final pre-UFC appearance, then extended his knockout streak to 11 by outlasting Jonathan Wilson in his Octagon debut. In his third fight of 2016, "Frankenstein" survived a second-round knockdown to submit Denmark’s Joachim Christensen and earn a "Performance of the Night" bonus in the process.
Eight of his 12 stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Craig moves very well on the mat for a man his size and has a keen eye for submission opportunities. That said, I’m not sure the wrestling’s there quite yet; in fact, Moore had him mounted in their fight and seemed in control before running into a guillotine. "Frankenstein" is quite strong and has the edge in firepower on the feet. Without strong takedowns, "The BearJew" may be in for it.
Henrique’s striking edge ought to carry him to an entertaining victory. So long has he keeps his neck out of Craig’s arms, expect a stoppage victory.
Prediction: Henrique da Silva by second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Cole Miller vs. Mizuto Hirota
The last two years have been rather tumultuous for Cole Miller (21-10), who entered 2015 on a two-fight win streak and proceeded to lose two of his next three bouts. In addition to suffering a "No Contest" against Jim Alers between those losses, a bout with B.J. Penn fell through because of United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA)-related issues and his first booking against Mizuto Hirota (17-7-2) wound up on the ill-fated Manila card.
"Magrinho" has 15 submissions among his eighteen stoppage wins.
Hirota, whose first ZUFFA run featured some close decision losses, fought his way through "Road to UFC: Japan" to get another crack inside the Octagon. Two Septembers ago, he survived Teruto Ishihara’s early onslaught and fought his way to a split draw in the tournament finals.
He will give up six inches of height to the 6’1" Miller.
This fight could go a lot of ways. Hirota is 0-3-1 in ZUFFA, but had an argument for a win against Pat Healy, Rodrigo Damm and the aforementioned Ishihara. Miller, meanwhile, has moments of beauty where his long-range boxing and grappling skills work in beautiful tandem, but just as many where he looks lost on the feet.
Miller’s struggles against a very beatable Alex Caceres and his issues outside the cage with UFC have me leaning toward Hirota. "Pugnus’s" submission defense has proven impregnable to anyone not named Shinya Aoki, his Judo matches up well against Miller’s lackluster takedowns, and he can hold his own on the feet. I say he sprawls-and-brawls to a competitive decision victory.
Prediction: Hirota via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Bryan Barberena vs. Colby Covington
Bryan Barberena (12-3) split his first two UFC bouts at Lightweight before making the jump to 170 pounds earlier this year, where he choked out Sage Northcutt at UFC on FOX 18. Unsatisfied with just one major upset, he out-slugged Warlley Alves in May to take a unanimous decision in hostile territory.
"Bam Bam" has eight wins by form of knockout and two via submission.
Colby Covington (10-1) saw his unbeaten record and three-fight UFC win streak crash to a halt at the hands of Warlley Alves, who snared him in a guillotine 86 seconds into their Dec. 2015 showdown. He has since won two straight over Jonathan Meunier and Max Griffin, stopping both men in the third round.
"Chaos" has submitted four people via choke and one by strikes.
Covington’s a bad match up for a lot of Welterweight fighters, but Barberena in particular is going to have boatloads of issues. Barbarena’s success comes from being utterly exhausting to deal with -- it’s a chore to take him down and, on the feet, his relentless advance and stubborn refusal to acknowledge return fire is utterly demoralizing.
Unfortunately, Covington thrives in the grind, in the slogging mess that Barberena’s fights devolve into. Worse, he has the cardio and wrestling prowess to take down Barberena all night. "Bam Bam’s" going to make a fight of it, but constant takedowns will gimp his momentum before it can ever get going. Covington grinds his way to a decision.
Prediction: Covington via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: James Moontasri vs. Alex Morono
James Moontasri (9-4) spent the first three UFC fights at Lightweight, going 1-2 before persistent weight-cutting issues sent him up to 170 pounds. There, "Moonwalker" has knocked out Anton Zafir in Melbourne and dropped a decision to Alex Oliveira in July.
He and Alex Morono (12-3) were originally set to fight in Manila.
"Great White" rattled off five straight stoppage wins, four in the first round, to earn a shot at UFC with the Legacy FC Welterweight title around his waist. He debuted in January, edging out veteran Kyle Noke by split decision.
He owns five wins by submission and four by (technical) knockout.
I’ve come to terms with the fact that Moontasri isn’t quite as good as I think he is. That said, aside from a debut he arguably won despite a terrible gameplan, his UFC losses have come to two excellent fighters in Kevin Lee and Alex Oliveira. Morono isn’t that sort of physical powerhouse and lacks the wrestling to stifle Moontasri’s vast striking arsenal.
When Moontasri can stay on his feet, he’s a scary opponent. Whatever luck Morono had to earn the decision against Noke runs out here as Moontasri breaks him down for the stoppage win.
Prediction: Moontasri via second-round technical knockout
155 lbs.: Josh Emmett vs. Scott Holtzman
Josh Emmett's (10-0) first nine fights saw him earn the West Coast FC Lightweight title and defend it with a knockout of UFC veteran Christos Giagos. In May, he stepped up on short notice to beat Jon Tuck by split decision decision.
He has three wins via (technical) knockout and two by submission.
Scott Holtzman (9-1) -- a product of the venerable MMA Lab -- announced his arrival in UFC's 155-pound division last year with a thrashing of Anthony Christodoulou. An upset loss to Drew Dober slowed his roll in January, although he’s since bounced back with a decision over Cody Pfister.
He stands an inch taller than Emmett at 5’9."
Holtzman’s technical prowess just hasn’t caught up to his physical gifts yet. He strikes well, but neither his takedown defense nor grappling off of his back are up to snuff. Emmett will have a speed advantage and his time at Team Alpha Male ought to give him the tools to exploit Holtzman’s still-developing ground game.
It should be a fun fight, Emmett’s rapid combinations against Holtzman’s pressure. With the aforementioned wrestling issues keeping Holtzman honest, expect Emmett to outland him for the decision win.
Prediction: Emmett via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Leslie Smith vs. Irene Aldana
Leslie Smith (8-7-1) -- a product of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu -- went 3-2-1 in Invicta with wins over Raquel Pennington and future champion Jennifer Maia. She is 2-3 in UFC, alternating losses and wins and most recently suffering a knockout loss to Cris "Cyborg" Santos.
Half of her professional wins have come by form of knockout.
First-round submissions of Peggy Morgan and Colleen Schneider set up Irene Aldana (7-2) for a crack at the Invicta FC Bantamweight title. Though she came up short against Tonya Evinger, she went on to knockout Jessamyn Duke and Faith Van Duin in a round apiece.
Each of her seven wins -- five of them (technical) knockouts and two of them submissions -- have come in the first round.
Keep an eye on Aldana in the coming years -- she’s not the overwhelming force teammate Alexa Grasso is, but she’s an excellent offensive bruiser with real power in her hands. Her greatest issues are her lack of striking defense, which she makes up for with a great chin, and middling takedown defense, which Smith has neither the skill nor desire to exploit.
Though Smith’s pressure and durability make her a fearsome foe, she is way too hittable. Aldana has the speed and combination punching to pick her apart the way Sara Kaufman and Jessica Eye did and likely hits harder than either of them. She dominates, picking up either a one-sided decision or an accumulation stoppage.
Prediction: Aldana by second-round technical knockoutComment -
Holtzman vs. Emmett: Both guys have wide low stances. Both have good gas tanks. Emmett is a little more varied by mixing more kicks in but these two guys almost look like two mirror images of each other. Not much of an edge here. i have this fight as 50/50 all the way. If Holtzman gets to be more of an underdog then I may throw a small play at him for value. For now I'm laying off.Comment -
I think I'm on Waterson the Karate hottie.. I don't like the long year and a half layoff though..
I took a closer look at both fighters and after further review the play stands as called.. Waterson it is.. I think she'll be better standing, she can wrestle and has a legit submission game as well if need be..
I also just remember Page getting her asss beat pretty badly against Rose exactly a year ago.. It could happen again..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Paige-VanZant-99019
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Love their prediction LOL...Wineland 1st round TKO.....F OFF LOL....that fight has decision written all over it ...Comment -
The only people to take out a TOUGH Mizugaki in round 1 are the Current Champ and the guy fighting the champ...Wineland is FAR from that....Guess Time will tell...Yeah they are casually calling out a +300..... Miz come out tough in round 1 and I wouldn't be shocked to see him eat a punch and get the takedown---and win the round....Comment -
I keep going back and forth now on that Northcut/Gall fight.. Originally I thought Gall by sub, he'll pressure Sage and get him against the cage and take him down.. Out work and then break Northcut and at some point sub him out..
Then again Sage is training full time now, actually more big fight experience.. The kid is athletic and explosive early on especially.. He's gonna be quick and hard to take down early on most likely.. How will Gall respond and deal with that?
Shit I may just take the Under, cross my fingers and call it a day.. It really is a tricky blind fight to bet on IMO..
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Northcutt's 4 UFC opponents 42-11-1. Mickey Gall's 6 opponents 3-3.Last edited by UncleChael; 12-15-16, 05:29 PM.Comment -
As much as I disagree with the Velickovic/Aliev write-up, I think this is dead on. Moontasri is not living up to his hype and rightfully so. He just isn't as good in MMA as he is decorated in his individual disciplines. That said, Morono doesn't have what it takes to dictate this fight. He is likely going to end up fighting Moontasri on the feet. Given the time to get comfortable there, Moontasri will be the more precise striker and will show his skill. Morono is aggressive and wild, but Moontasri will be able to handle it when he realizes he can keep himself off the mat. Even if this fight goes down, Morono is a bit wild in transitions and loses position too easily. I'm not a big fan of his fight IQ. Finally, his BJJ is best from his back, which I think Moontasri will either handle or avoid and take the fight back to the feet. Composed, with a good game plan, this is Moontasri's fight to lose, but I do think he will have to earn it. I have him at -150-170 range, so I think there is a little value on Moontasri. I won't be playing him big, but will likely be on him to win.Comment -
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By looking at these two warm up, the technique of Waterson is just lightyears ahead, in every category.
Cardio of waterson is stil garbage though, so pretty curious to see how this fight end up.
If Van Zant believe shes the new mike tyson, she will struggle big time on the feet.Comment -
Not for me....Gall will dance with him and pick his spot....NC will throw a kick or something stupid and get caught...I keep going back and forth now on that Northcut/Gall fight.. Originally I thought Gall by sub, he'll pressure Sage and get him against the cage and take him down.. Out work and then break Northcut and at some point sub him out..
Then again Sage is training full time now, actually more big fight experience.. The kid is athletic and explosive early on especially.. He's gonna be quick and hard to take down early on most likely.. How will Gall respond and deal with that?
Shit I may just take the Under, cross my fingers and call it a day.. It really is a tricky blind fight to bet on IMO..
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well papertrail07, you might be right about the jouban dec
His answer pretty much spells out that hes gonna try to fight this to a decision or attempt a submission?Last edited by valueguyman; 12-16-16, 02:00 PM.Comment -
Sage's open workout:
Can't find one posted for Mickey Gall anywhere.
I guess people think Mickey Gall is a scrub destined to lose, no sense in posting his material.
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Exactly....it's going to looks like a Bisping fight......His IQ talking is better than when fighting BUT....I like it.....well papertrail07, you might be right about the jouban dec
His answer pretty much spells out that hes gonna try to fight this to a decision or attempt a submission?Comment -
Mizuto Hirota vs Cole Miller: Ewww. Ugly fight. I don't trust Hirota AT ALL. His punches are short. His kicks are shorter. He will have a massive reach disadvantage to begin with. And as he moves forward looking to strike with his short punches, he keeps his chin way up in the air. Against a much taller Miller I have to imagine he will be keeping his chin even higher. His wrestling is relatively weak and he won't control Miller on the ground. The problem with betting against Hirota is... it means you have to be on Cole Miller and who wants to do that? He looked absolutely horrible in his last fight vs. Caceres. Looked better vs. Alers until the eye poke, but not great. Has no power. No speed or athleticism. This is an ugly fight. I would say there's value on Miller due to the reach and ground skill but I really don't want to put my money behind him. Will probably lay off.Comment -
I'm pretty big on the over, surprised i got it at -130 earlier in the week, however the more i think about it, Miller always gets hurt and he's at that point on his career where him getting knocked out should be the norm instead of the exception, Hirota has yet to even come close to hurting a guy when fighting in the states however he does love to knockout japanese grapplers and he is due to finally getting a big win after so many tries.Comment -
GALL and WATERSON my only bets tonight.
good luck and enjoy the beatings.Comment -
Da Silva vs. Craig: This fight is pretty interesting. From what I've seen, Craig hasn't fought a guy as powerful or aggressive with his strikes as Da Silva. There will be a clear advantage on the feet for Da Silva, and I think he will make good work of it. Craig doesn't engage with a ton of strikes on the feet but when he does get aggressive and throws punch combinations he leaves his head up and out, which is trouble against the power of Da Silva. He would be better served to engage very little and look for clinch even if it means he gets backed up to the cage.
Meanwhile, Da Silva is the opposite striker. Very aggressive. Very powerful. His defense only really lets him down against a strong counter striker and Craig just won't be solid with counters when Da Silva is throwing as hard as he does. This is all Da Silva on the feet.
But the ground game... Da Silva is comfortable on the ground, but not necessarily scary. His guard is open and he lays flat. A lot of his ground game is waiting, and then out of nowhere he will throw a quick sweep or sub attempt, which he is better at than people think, particularly the sweeps. But Craig has serious composure on the ground. Strong chokes. Good subs from his back. Almost a little too comfortable on his back that he gives up top position at times, but it works for him because he lands the subs. Something tells me he is going to have to work his top game to be successful in this fight. If Da Silva sweeps and gets on top he should just stand up and make Craig get up, which he has done in previous fights. On the feet it's no contest. Interesting fight. Very curious to see if Craig can put Da Silva on his back and give him a serious test there. That said, this line is probably dead on with Da Silva -200 or so. Not much value in the line IMO but a very interesting fight IF Craig can get it to the ground.Comment -
Perry vs. Jouban: This one should be awesome. Could quickly become a brawl because both guys are durable and love to bang. To me, this fight will be decided against the cage. Perry loves to pressure a guy backwards until he gets them pinned and then he tees off with bombs. However, that's a real dangerous place to be with Jouban because he has not only punches but knees and short elbows too. I don't see Jouban stopping Perry with punches alone, so he will need those elbows/knees if he's really gonna hurt Perry. Coin flip. Great fight, but no bet for me.Comment
