UFC on FOX: VanZant Vs Waterson (December 17, 2016)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Sure.. Even odds it goes the distance I'm in.. 500 bet points..

I'd like the Under at the current (+140) if that's good with you.

[JIBBBY]

I'd like the Under at the current (+140) if that's good with you.

I don't like the -160 odds on the 4.5 over Hugo.. Sorry pal... If you want to bet the distance prop odds when the odds come out let me know..

I don't like to bet MINUS - odd props often unless I think it's a lock, that's how you lose bank roll...

I do think this fight most likely goes the distance.. I don't think it's a lock though.. I would be willing to bet that at near even odds..

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't like the -160 odds on the 4.5 over Hugo.. Sorry pal... If you want to bet the distance prop odds when the odds come out let me know..

I don't like to bet MINUS - odd props often, that's how you lose bank roll...

Me either. Ok I think it will come out around -120 a side but I'll let you know when it does.

[JIBBBY]

Me either. Ok I think it will come out around -120 a side but I'll let you know when it does.

All good Hugo.. Whet ever is clever I say, just let me know...

There are certainly better bets to play on this card then this over/under or distance bet in the chick fight and I think we can both agree to that..

[Hugo de Naranja]

All good Hugo.. Whet ever is clever I say, just let me know...
There are certainly better bets to play on this card then this over/under or distance bet in the chick fight and I think we can both agree to that..

Definitely.

[Shagdogy]

I'm just starting my research for this card, but there is a MASSIVE problem with the line in the first fight IMO. It's not a sexy fight, but this is where you can find value. Bojan Velickovich should be -300 or more against Sultan Aliev.

Aliev is pretty damn bad and he is 32. He's low volume, sambo striker with a looping right hand and sometimes a left hook and nothing else. He shoots doubles with no set up and backs out of them as soon as he doesn't get in deep. Meanwhile Velickovich is taller, has more reach, fights southpaw, has solid inside leg kicks (and Aliev has a wide, flat footed stance to be kicked over and over), and much better movement. My book doesn't have this line up yet, but seeing it at -150 is a STEAL and I will max bet it as soon as I get the chance unless any of you guys have any solid reasons why I shouldn't. Anyone?

[TheCaliforniaKid]

Per Sher-Dog, Aliev hasnt fought in over 6 years (Oct 2010). My online bookie has released a -150 price on Bojan. In total agreeance with your value assessment. Best of Luck

[Shagdogy]

Per Sher-Dog, Aliev hasnt fought in over 6 years (Oct 2010). My online bookie has released a -150 price on Bojan. In total agreeance with your value assessment. Best of Luck

Sherdog was real messed up with their Aliev info... check wikipedia and UFC. This guy has fought in UFC in January of 2015 and lost a TKO to Kenny Robertson. A few minutes googling his old fights will show you his level of competition was pretty poor prior to the UFC and he still doesn't have much for them. He either throws a looping right or shoots doubles from far out and hopes to get in deep enough to transition to a body lock / trip. Once on top he doesn't even have good top control and guys get up easy. He doesn't have it IMO and hes not gonna get much better at 32 years old.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm just starting my research for this card, but there is a MASSIVE problem with the line in the first fight IMO. It's not a sexy fight, but this is where you can find value. Bojan Velickovich should be -300 or more against Sultan Aliev.

Aliev is pretty damn bad and he is 32. He's low volume, sambo striker with a looping right hand and sometimes a left hook and nothing else. He shoots doubles with no set up and backs out of them as soon as he doesn't get in deep. Meanwhile Velickovich is taller, has more reach, fights southpaw, has solid inside leg kicks (and Aliev has a wide, flat footed stance to be kicked over and over), and much better movement. My book doesn't have this line up yet, but seeing it at -150 is a STEAL and I will max bet it as soon as I get the chance unless any of you guys have any solid reasons why I shouldn't. Anyone?

I'm on Bojan here at (-135) for several units. Aliev is terrible. The only thing that makes me a little cautious here is that Bojan really should be 0-2 in the UFC rather than 1-0-1. Check out mmadecisions.com. Both of his UFC fights were very controversial decisions. I think this is the right side to take but I'd proceed with caution.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Per Sher-Dog, Aliev hasnt fought in over 6 years (Oct 2010). My online bookie has released a -150 price on Bojan. In total agreeance with your value assessment. Best of Luck

He's fought like 15 times since October 2010. I'd check that again.

[Shagdogy]

I'm on Bojan here at (-135) for several units. Aliev is terrible. The only thing that makes me a little cautious here is that Bojan really should be 0-2 in the UFC rather than 1-0-1. Check out mmadecisions.com. Both of his UFC fights were very controversial decisions. I think this is the right side to take but I'd proceed with caution.

I don't really look at his record. I watched his fight with Graves (I agree he shoulda lost) and I watched 3 of Aliev's previous. Aliev is terrible like you said. At 32 he's gonna still be terrible, whereas Bojan is training with a hot camp at team elevation and at 27 will most likely come in better than we've seen him. He lost TKO in his TUF entrance fight but he looked absolutely gassed. Probably a huge adrenaline dump, but his cardio looked solid vs. Graves. Aliev's takedowns are way worse than Graves and when I've seen him land them he doesn't keep guys down for long. On the feet, it's no contest. Bojan is way better and if he's smart will use his range and pick apart Aliev until he's a sitting duck. He showed some solid inside leg kicks which would be good for him to throw a lot since Aliev has a real wide stance and stays flat footed. I don't think Aliev can take him down fresh, and if he slows him down a bit then it's on the feet for the rest of the fight unless Bojan decides otherwise. His fight to lose. Good luck. I'll be on Bojan with you. I just wish I coulda hit -135. Still waiting for it with my book.

[Shagdogy]

Also, Aliev's previous fights were against trash and as soon as he entered the UFC he looked like garbage himself and got KO'd after throwing a horrendous spinning back kick. He sucks.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I don't really look at his record. I watched his fight with Graves (I agree he shoulda lost) and I watched 3 of Aliev's previous. Aliev is terrible like you said. At 32 he's gonna still be terrible, whereas Bojan is training with a hot camp at team elevation and at 27 will most likely come in better than we've seen him. He lost TKO in his TUF entrance fight but he looked absolutely gassed. Probably a huge adrenaline dump, but his cardio looked solid vs. Graves. Aliev's takedowns are way worse than Graves and when I've seen him land them he doesn't keep guys down for long. On the feet, it's no contest. Bojan is way better and if he's smart will use his range and pick apart Aliev until he's a sitting duck. He showed some solid inside leg kicks which would be good for him to throw a lot since Aliev has a real wide stance and stays flat footed. I don't think Aliev can take him down fresh, and if he slows him down a bit then it's on the feet for the rest of the fight unless Bojan decides otherwise. His fight to lose. Good luck. I'll be on Bojan with you. I just wish I coulda hit -135. Still waiting for it with my book.

Let's get these $$$

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I like Gall..I think he gets Sage down and exposes him on the ground

[richie360]

From previous fights I've seen of Gall and Northcutt I can't look past a Gall submission victory. Gall looks like a tough dude who genuinely just loves a scrap. Northcutt looks good until the going gets anywhere remotely tough. Also Gall called out Sage specifically. I can also see Faber locking in a sub and finishing Pickett, Pickett is finished!

[JIBBBY]

I like Gall..I think he gets Sage down and exposes him on the ground

I'm kinda thinking the same.. That kid Mickey seems very confident and showed he is skillful on the ground.. I'm certainly gonna play Mickey Gall by sub as a hedge and for profit.. Maybe hit Sage 1st round and or ITD depending on the odds on the flip..

[Hugo de Naranja]

All good Hugo.. Whet ever is clever I say, just let me know...

There are certainly better bets to play on this card then this over/under or distance bet in the chick fight and I think we can both agree to that..

Fight Doesn't Go Distance is (+130)

[JIBBBY]

Fight Doesn't Go Distance is (+130)

Yep... I saw that..I'm gonna take a pass on this bet at -155.. I don't like the odds.. You should still take the fight won't go the distance at + odds if you think it will land...

Michelle Waterson vs Paige VanZant - Strawweight 5 rounds - UFC on Fox 22

Sat 12/17		1003 Waterson / VanZant goes 5 round distance		-155
9:30PM		1004 Fight won’t go 5 round distance		+125

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA part 1 previews and short reads -




135 lbs.: Eddie Wineland vs. Takeya Mizugaki

A 1-3 skid, kicked off by a spinning back kick knockout from Renan Barao and capped off by a one-sided decision loss to Bryan Caraway, seemed to signal the end of Eddie Wineland's (22-11-1) days as a top Bantamweight. After nearly one year out of the cage, he returned in September to upset Frankie Saenz by knockout and earn his second "Performance of the Night" bonus.
Five of his last six wins have come via knockout.
Once stuck alternating wins and losses, Takeya Mizugaki (21-10-2) turned the corner in 2012 and rattled off five consecutive wins, including decisions over Bryan Caraway and Francisco Rivera. He is 1-3 since, all losses by stoppage and a decision over George Roop the sole bright spot.
This will be his eighteenth fight since his World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) debut opposite Miguel Torres.
Mizugaki hasn’t lost to bad fighters by any stretch of the imagination, but it’s the way he’s lost that troubles me. His swarming demands durability that I’m no longer convinced he possesses. Though Wineland’s had his own issues, the Saenz fight saw him seemingly shake off the passivity that plagued him during his slump.
That’s bad news for Mizugaki, who has never been hard to hit at the best of times.
Were I confident that Mizugaki could withstand that right hand, I’d pick him by decision. I’m not, so I say Wineland plugs him late in the first.
Prediction: Wineland by first-round technical knockout

125 lbs.: Fredy Serrano vs. Hector Sandoval

Colombia’s Fredy Serrano (3-1) fell short in the opening round of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Latin America," but managed to stop Bentley Syler and Yao Zhikui in the Octagon itself, earning "Performance of the Night" for the former. His unbeaten run came to an end last July at the hands of Ryan Benoit, who won a split decision in a rather oddball fight.
He is a full seven years older than Hector Sandoval (12-3).
Sandoval earned multiple Flyweight belts during his career, including the Tachi Palace Fights, West Coast FC and Global Knockout titles. Most recently, he stepped up on short notice at UFC 201 and suffered a first-round submission loss to Wilson Reis.
He owns three wins via (technical) knockout and two by submission.
If Serrano had come into mixed martial arts (MMA) 10 years earlier, he’d be a serious threat. As is, he’s capable and athletic, but can’t bring his wrestling pedigree to bear as much as he needs to. Against the vastly more experienced Sandoval, decent takedowns and heavy hands just aren’t enough.
Sandoval’s aggression, speed and scrambling ability ought to be enough to overcome Serrano’s physical strength. He out-lands "El Profe" on the feet and steers clear of bad positions on the mat for a clear decision win.
Prediction: Sandoval via unanimous decision

170 lbs.: Sultan Aliev vs. Bojan Velickovic

After a questionable decision loss to Doug Marshall ended his Bellator MMA run, Sultan Aliev (13-2) picked up four consecutive knockouts on the international circuit to punch his ticket to UFC. Once there, he suffered a one-punch knockout loss to Kenny Robertson and suffered an injury before a planned fight with Hyun Gyu Lim.
This will be his first fight in almost 23 months, the longest layoff of his career.
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) entered UFC as the RFA Welterweight champion and extended his win streak to five with a decision over Alessio Di Chirico in his Octagon debut. His next time out, he fought TUF veteran Michael Graves to a majority draw at UFC 201.
"Serbian Steel" owns eight professional victories by submission.
This is frustrating. In a vacuum, I’d pick Aliev in a heartbeat -- Velickovic is a decent grappler, but his striking is rudimentary and he hasn’t yet learned to parlay his size into powerful wrestling. Aliev, meanwhile, is a more proven takedown artist and power puncher.
This isn’t a vacuum, unfortunately, and there’s Aliev’s monster layoff to consider.
Still, he has enough of an edge that I’m picking him anyway. Whatever chin issues he demonstrated against Robertson, Velickovic is ill-equipped to replicate that feat and I don’t imagine his bulk troubling someone with a history of manhandling Middleweights. So long as Aliev’s gas tank stays intact, expect him to control the grappling before putting away the Serb with strikes.
Prediction: Aliev via first-round technical knockout

[TheCaliforniaKid]

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sultan-Aliev-7902

[Hugo de Naranja]

http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Sultan-Aliev-7902

Sherdog has the wrong guy or something. Here's his record https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sultan_Aliev

[TheCaliforniaKid]

Thanks for the clarification. Does make more sense. Hard to believe we live in a day and time where Wikipedia is more trustworthy than a sport specific site like Sherdog

[Hugo de Naranja]

Thanks for the clarification. Does make more sense. Hard to believe we live in a day and time where Wikipedia is more trustworthy than a sport specific site like Sherdog

Yeah haha. Sherdog is generally right. Everybody makes mistakes I guess.

[Sanity Check]

Does anyone know when Sultan Aliev made the move to american top team or where he's training right now?

[PaperTrail07]

I don't know what it is...BUT I am just NOT SOLD on Perry.....Gall and Jouban for the W...

[valueguyman]

well I'm a big Perry fan but I'll admit theres a ton of group think on him getting the W which makes me hesitant to bet large but I just don't see the angles where Jouban wins. Maybe the decision win is possible but I don't think he can survive a war like Roberts almost did and I continue to think about the Tumenov fight where he took 1 flush shot and was pretty much done. Jouban submission? I haven't seen much of that in his fights, have you? Jouban KO? Perry took 3 flush headkicks from Roberts, tons of jabs, crosses shrugged it off and is fighting two months later. Jouban Decision? Only angle imo but hes going through a war to get there.

Overall this card is horrible to bet on the favorites are too much of a favorite and the decent favorites (Wineland, Emmett) I'm not overly crazy about. I'll probably just lay 1-3 units on Perry and call it a day.

[PaperTrail07]

For me---Speed and Skill....Roberts Gassed at the end and paid for it....MP will be losing the points so I guess if you bet him, take the KO prop.....

well I'm a big Perry fan but I'll admit theres a ton of group think on him getting the W which makes me hesitant to bet large but I just don't see the angles where Jouban wins. Maybe the decision win is possible but I don't think he can survive a war like Roberts almost did and I continue to think about the Tumenov fight where he took 1 flush shot and was pretty much done. Jouban submission? I haven't seen much of that in his fights, have you? Jouban KO? Perry took 3 flush headkicks from Roberts, tons of jabs, crosses shrugged it off and is fighting two months later. Jouban Decision? Only angle imo but hes going through a war to get there.

Overall this card is horrible to bet on the favorites are too much of a favorite and the decent favorites (Wineland, Emmett) I'm not overly crazy about. I'll probably just lay 1-3 units on Perry and call it a day.

[PaperTrail07]

Love Gall...that Emmett fight for me---bet Tuck last time LOL...I am going on the dog again....

well I'm a big Perry fan but I'll admit theres a ton of group think on him getting the W which makes me hesitant to bet large but I just don't see the angles where Jouban wins. Maybe the decision win is possible but I don't think he can survive a war like Roberts almost did and I continue to think about the Tumenov fight where he took 1 flush shot and was pretty much done. Jouban submission? I haven't seen much of that in his fights, have you? Jouban KO? Perry took 3 flush headkicks from Roberts, tons of jabs, crosses shrugged it off and is fighting two months later. Jouban Decision? Only angle imo but hes going through a war to get there.

Overall this card is horrible to bet on the favorites are too much of a favorite and the decent favorites (Wineland, Emmett) I'm not overly crazy about. I'll probably just lay 1-3 units on Perry and call it a day.

[thetitanlb]

Not sure about this?

Probably Northcut is the call but this kid Mickey Gall seemed like he was the real deal in the couple of fights I remember seeing him in. He is undefeated too.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mickey-Gall-160145

He is undefeated against weekend warriors....

[thetitanlb]

I'll probably play similarly, depending on odds of course. I'd caution everyone GO SMALL on this fight. We really don't know anything about Gall and Northcutt BARELY beat fuckingg Enrique Marin.

Marin lost in the Tuf finals via a split decision. Iono one you are talking like he is a can...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Marin lost in the Tuf finals via a split decision. Iono one you are talking like he is a can...

Gall obviously hasn't beaten anyone either.

[Shagdogy]

170 lbs.: Sultan Aliev vs. Bojan Velickovic

After a questionable decision loss to Doug Marshall ended his Bellator MMA run, Sultan Aliev (13-2) picked up four consecutive knockouts on the international circuit to punch his ticket to UFC. Once there, he suffered a one-punch knockout loss to Kenny Robertson and suffered an injury before a planned fight with Hyun Gyu Lim.
This will be his first fight in almost 23 months, the longest layoff of his career.
Bojan Velickovic (14-3-1) entered UFC as the RFA Welterweight champion and extended his win streak to five with a decision over Alessio Di Chirico in his Octagon debut. His next time out, he fought TUF veteran Michael Graves to a majority draw at UFC 201.
"Serbian Steel" owns eight professional victories by submission.
This is frustrating. In a vacuum, I’d pick Aliev in a heartbeat -- Velickovic is a decent grappler, but his striking is rudimentary and he hasn’t yet learned to parlay his size into powerful wrestling. Aliev, meanwhile, is a more proven takedown artist and power puncher.
This isn’t a vacuum, unfortunately, and there’s Aliev’s monster layoff to consider.
Still, he has enough of an edge that I’m picking him anyway. Whatever chin issues he demonstrated against Robertson, Velickovic is ill-equipped to replicate that feat and I don’t imagine his bulk troubling someone with a history of manhandling Middleweights. So long as Aliev’s gas tank stays intact, expect him to control the grappling before putting away the Serb with strikes.
Prediction: Aliev via first-round technical knockout

I couldn't disagree with this more. Aliev's wins on the "international circuit" were against garbage competition. He has very poor entrances on his takedowns and is only successful if he gets in deep enough for an inside leg trip, which he is very good at. But against a taller, longer fighter like Velickovic I just don't see him getting in that deep. Even if he does, Velickovic is decently slick with sweeps and transitions. And if all else fails, Velickovic has good heart and a solid chin. This write-up says Aliev needs his gas tank to be decent, but then says he'll win by TKO round 1? Wtf? I've got my max bet 5 units on Velickovic here and I feel good about it.

[thetitanlb]

Gall obviously hasn't beaten anyone either.

That's my point. I don't get how anyone can put minus money on a fighter who has legit beaten no one. Dude only has 3 pro fights and 2 were against legit nobody's. You could probably find random dudes on the street who are better fighters than punk and that Jackson guy. No one that Gall has faced has 1 pro mma win. Not 1 pro mma win.

[thetitanlb]

Gall obviously hasn't beaten anyone either.

Sage has looked iffy in spots but at least he has faced UFC caliber guys and is 3-1 against them.

[Shagdogy]

Sage has looked iffy in spots but at least he has faced UFC caliber guys and is 3-1 against them.

He's just a hard bet cause everyone can remember him tapping (quitting?) to an arm triangle from half guard which just should not happen. He either gave up, has some bush league skills on the ground, or both.