UFC on FOX: VanZant Vs Waterson (December 17, 2016)

[Plaza23]

Gall with the submission win. I think he can win a title someday.

[UncleChael]

Galll getting lit up...

[Kermit]

I see Gall getting his 4th pro win by a 4th RNC finish.

[UncleChael]

Holy fukk..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Nice performance by Gall. Good finishing ability but I think is cardio is pretty questionable going forward.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[Hugo de Naranja]

Think VanZant loses the first round but gets the comeback win

[Hugo de Naranja]

Good call bud.

[Ty$]

I'm on PVZ straight and by dec and parlayed w Gall... my night rides on PVZ

[Unwritten Law]

Go Michelle!!!

[firekillex]

Nice performance by Gall. Good finishing ability but I think is cardio is pretty questionable going forward.

i dont see how he could make 55 hes a pretty big 70er and hes only getting older that would be a bad move imo, zahabi one of the most intelligent coaches in the game should sway him from doing this, dropping weight doesnt always help you i think it would hinder his performances imo.... on another note his finishing ability and back taking skills are great every fight he lands the punch and circles to the back in a split second sinking the choke in. sage is all offense you can tell from previous fights, he doesnt like to get hit and he gives up far to easily doesnt seem like a true fighter imo i dont think he makes it really anywhere in the sport, gall definitely has a future though

gall vs hardy i do not see going well for him though , wish he didnt make that call out if hardy actually comes back from his health problems

[Plaza23]

Damn that was nothing of a main event. oh well Paige. You're still sexy in my book.

[Ty$]

Well that was quick ... shit

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Picks:
Bojan Velickovic Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Hector Sandoval Split Decision (30-27, 29-28, 28-29)
Eddie Wineland Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Irene Aldana Round 1 TKO (Knee and Punches)
Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
James Moontasri Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Colby Covington Round 3 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Mizuto Hirota Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Luis Henrique da Silva Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Mike Perry Round 1 KO (Punch)
Urijah Faber Round 2 Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Sage Northcutt Round 1 Submission (Triangle Choke)
Paige VanZant Round 3 Submission (Guillotine Choke)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Draftkings Double Up Lineup:
Colby Covington ($8,900) 137 Points
Bojan Velickovic ($8,600) 14 Points
Mike Perry ($8,500) 18.5 Points
Mizuto Hirota ($8,100) 106.5 Points
Sage Northcutt ($8,000) 19.5 Points
James Moontasri ($7,800) 23 Points

Risk: 1u
Total Points: 318.5 Points
Result: Did Not Cash, -1u

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson Draftkings Tournament Lineup:
Luis Henrique da Silva ($9,000) 23 Points
Eddie Wineland ($8,800) 114.5 Points
Josh Emmett ($8,700) 119.5 Points
Sage Northcutt ($8,000) 19.5 Points
James Moontasri ($7,800) 23 Points
Alan Jouban ($7,700) 84.5 Points

Risk: .2u
Total Points: 384 Points
Result: Did Not Cash, -.2u

[Hugo de Naranja]

Losing night for me. Will post results once they announce FOTN.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on Fox 22: VanZant vs. Waterson

Fight Pass Prelims:

Fight #1: Velickovic vs. Aliev
Velickovic (-135) -2.7u
Velickovic/Aliev Draw (+6000) -.1u

Result: Sultan Aliev Split Decision (30-27 x2, 28-29)
Fight: -2.8u
Card: -2.8u

Fight #2: Sandoval vs. Serrano
No Bet

Result: Hector Sandoval Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)

Fight #3: Wineland vs. Mizugaki
Wineland KO/TKO (+165) +2.475u
Wineland/Mizugaki Draw (+6500) -.1u

Hedge:
Mizugaki Decision (+340) -1u

Result: Eddie Wineland Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Fight: +1.375u
Card: -1.425u

Fox Sports 1 Prelims:

Fight #4: Smith vs. Aldana (DEBUT)
Aldana+Smith Under 2.5 (+150) -2u
Aldana ITD (+165) -2u
Aldana KO/TKO (+300) -1u

Hedge:
Smith Round 3 (+2550) -.25u

Result: Leslie Smith Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Fight: -5.25u
Card: -6.675u

Fight #5: Emmett vs. Holtzman
No Bet

Result: Josh Emmett Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)

Fight #6: Moontasri vs. Morono
Moontasri Decision (+444) -.75u
Moontasri Round 2 (+600) -.5u
Moontasri Round 3 (+1050) -.25u
Moontasri Submission (+1275) -1u

Result: Alex Morono Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Fight: -2.5u
Card: -9.175u

Fight #7: Barberena vs. Covington
Barberena (+350) -1u
Barberena Round 2 (+1250) -.25u
Barberena Round 3 (+2050) -.25u

Hedge(s):
Covington Submission (+495) -1u
Covington Round 3 (+1075) -.5u

Result: Colby Covington Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Fight: -3u
Card: -12.175u

Fight #8: Miller vs. Hirota
Hirota (-120) +2u
Hirota Decision (+200) +1u

Result: Mizuto Hirota Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 30-26)
Fight: +3u
Card: -9.175u

Fight #9: Henrique da Silva vs. Craig (DEBUT)
Henrique da Silva KO/TKO (+160) -1u
Henrique da Silva Round 2 (+425) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Craig Submission (+435) +2.175u
Craig Round 1 (+600) -.25u

Result: Paul Craig Round 2 Submission (Armbar)
Fight: +.425u
Card: -8.75u

Main Card:

Fight #10: Perry vs. Jouban
Perry (-130) -1.3u
Perry KO/TKO (+140) -1u
Perry Round 1 (+300) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Jouban Decision (+475) +2.375u
Jouban Round 1 (+1575) -.5u

Result: Alan Jouban Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Fight: -.925u
Card: -9.675u

Fight #11: Faber vs. Pickett
Faber Submission (+300) -3u

Result: Urijah Faber Unanimous Decision (30-26 x3)
Fight: -3u
Card: -12.675u

Fight #12: Gall vs. Northcutt
Northcutt (+120) -1u
Northcutt Scorecards = No Action (+155) -2u
Northcutt Submission (+1060) -.5u

Hedge(s):
Gall Decision (+665) -.5u
Gall KO/TKO (+1318) -.5u

Result: Mickey Gall Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: -4.5u
Card: -17.175u

Fight #13: VanZant vs. Waterson
VanZant (-125) -2.5u
VanZant (+100) -2u
VanZant+Waterson Under 4.5 Rounds (+140) +2.8u
VanZant ITD (+263) -1u
VanZant Round 3 (+1050) -.5u
VanZant Split/Majority Decision (+1180) -.25u
VanZant Round 4 (+1450) -.25u
VanZant Round 5 (+2050) -.25u

Hedge(s):
Waterson ITD (+456) +4.56u
Waterson KO/TKO (+1500) -.25u
Waterson Round 3 (+1675) -.25u

Result: Michelle Waterson Round 1 Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Fight: +.11u
Card: -17.065u

Straight Parlays:
Emmett/Da Silva (+117) -1u
Da Silva/Faber -3.5 (+135) -1.5u

Results: Emmett, Faber -3.5 Win, Da Silva Loses
Fights: -2.5u
Card: -19.565u

Prop Parlays:
Covington+Barberena Starts Round 3/Da Silva+Craig Won’t Start Round 3 (+113) +2.26u
Miller Scorecards=No Action/Northcutt Scorecards=No Action(+342) -.5u
Da Silva ITD/Perry KO/Faber+Pickett Goes Distance (+664) -.25u
Da Silva KO/Jouban KO (+908) -.5u
Wineland Decision/Aldana Decision (+1030) -.25u
Emmett Decision/Moontasri/Faber Decision (+1206) -.25u
Aldana Round 1/Perry Round 1 (+1587) -.25u
Aldana+Smith Under 2.5/Emmett Decision/Moontasri ITD (+1893) -.25u
Velickovic Decision/Sandoval Decision/Wineland KO (+2184) -.25u
Covington Submission/Miller Submission (+2488) -.25u
Covington Submission/Hirota Decision/Da Silva ITD (+3458) -.25u
Moontasri Submission/Gall Submission (+3956) -.1u
Perry ITD/Faber ITD/Northcutt ITD/VanZant ITD (+4449) -.25u
Covington Submission/Miller Submission/Craig Submission (+13748) -.1u
Moontasri Round 3/Covington Round 3 (+15500) -.1u
Northcutt Submission/Waterson KO (+17914) -.1u

Added:
Faber Decision/Waterson Decision (+712) -.5u

Results: See Above
Fights: -1.89u
Card: -21.455u

Full Card Props:
Over 7.5 Fights Go Distance (+328) +3.28u
Over 4.5 Fights End in Submission (+478) -.5u
Over 8.5 Fights Go Distance (+850) +4.25u
Perry+Jouban FOTN (+550) -1u
Sage Northcutt Wins Fastest Sub (+2500) -.25u
Over 9.5 Fights Go Distance (+2575) -.25u
Irene Aldana Wins Fastest KO (+3000) -.5u

Results: See Above
Fights: +5.03u
Final Card Total: -16.425u

[TPowell]

I beat Hugo tonight..... about all I can say. I lost my ass on Perry, da Silva, Sage, Paige, Moon, and Miller. Had a big play on Emmett and a parlay with Faber and Wineland but that was it. Think I lost 7 units

[Hugo de Naranja]

I beat Hugo tonight..... about all I can say. I lost my ass on Perry, da Silva, Sage, Paige, Moon, and Miller. Had a big play on Emmett and a parlay with Faber and Wineland but that was it. Think I lost 7 units

Seems like most everyone I know had a bad night. Weird card with a lot of decisions, random underdogs coming through.

[TPowell]

Seems like most everyone I know had a bad night. Weird card with a lot of decisions, random underdogs coming through.

I told myself I was going to bang those decision props for event but stupid penetrating Fox cards start in the middle of the day. Just a bad day. I thought there was no way Perry couldn't find Jouban's chin and no way he wouldn't drop. Couldn't see da Silva losing to a BJJ guy from Europe, and I just put too much on Paige and Sage. Should have just passed or played a 0.5 unit total or something.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I told myself I was going to bang those decision props for event but stupid penetrating Fox cards start in the middle of the day. Just a bad day. I thought there was no way Perry couldn't find Jouban's chin and no way he wouldn't drop. Couldn't see da Silva losing to a BJJ guy from Europe, and I just put too much on Paige and Sage. Should have just passed or played a 0.5 unit total or something.

My betting is built a lot on finishes so I always play em as a hedge for nights like these. They've saved me more than once.

[Shagdogy]

Velickovic -150, 5 units
Moontasri -112, 2 units
Holtzman +155, 1 unit
Serrano +105, 1 unit

Good luck everyone. Go Bojan!

Yeah so um... this went really well. Count me as one of those "bad night" people. Damn.

[Shagdogy]

I'm still convinced Aliev spent his two year rehab in Russia getting regular roid injections. His smother game was especially suffocating, even if he did nothing with it. Man. Need to bounce back from this one.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm still convinced Aliev spent his two year rehab in Russia getting regular roid injections. His smother game was especially suffocating, even if he did nothing with it. Man. Need to bounce back from this one.

UFC 207 should have plenty of good spots. Keep your head up Shags. We'll get back to winning ways

[TPowell]

I thought Aliev by decision was the play but thought Sage and Paige were wiser investments

[Ty$]

Yup I tend to always put my eggs in 1 basket so either I'm up a lot or down the 50-100 I play per card not smart I know but fun. Hit Emmet and Gall prop threw it all on PVZ. Dumb. Lost $100.

[Ty$]

UFC 207 should have plenty of good spots. Keep your head up Shags. We'll get back to winning ways

Hope youre right.. already liking Ronda Caine and Cruz

[getlucky2win]

I'm pounding the hottie

Tried to throw u btchz a bone

[Shagdogy]

UFC 207 should have plenty of good spots. Keep your head up Shags. We'll get back to winning ways

Hope you're right... I've only recently recommitted myself to betting MMA. Used to hang around here a lot more.

What's your money management like Hugo? If I had 15-20 unit swings I'd be going off the deep end. I try to keep 1unit = 1.5% of bankroll and even still I don't like to bet more than 10-15units per card.

Edit: That wasn't a dig at you... just curious how you manage the units and swings overall.

[JIBBBY]

Hit and miss all night, Hit Waterson straight...Also hit Gall by sub, but hedged Northcut ITD, hit Faber by decision also.. .. I was just down to big going into those last 3 main fights to make up the losses....

I decided not to chase hard in the last 3 fight wins when I should have... Errr.. Just an off night..

A losing card for Jibs.. Didn't get destroyed but lost... Next. ....


Got Football today... It's a new day!!! Go Packers on the ML....

[PaperTrail07]

Hit gall jouban and waterson. Didn't hear a chirp from Perry s buddies after lol

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hope you're right... I've only recently recommitted myself to betting MMA. Used to hang around here a lot more.

What's your money management like Hugo? If I had 15-20 unit swings I'd be going off the deep end. I try to keep 1unit = 1.5% of bankroll and even still I don't like to bet more than 10-15units per card.

Edit: That wasn't a dig at you... just curious how you manage the units and swings overall.

1u is 1% of my bankroll. I do play a lot of units per card but with prop hedging I rarely get killed even when I miss some big plays.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Overall a bad night for me. Lost on Velickovic, Aldana ITD, Moontasri, Barberena, Da Silva, Faber Submission, and Northcutt. Won on Wineland KO, Hirota + Decision, and Full Card Props. Didn't cash DK this week. On to UFC 207 which should be a killer event!