Future Fights Thread

[Hugo de Naranja]

I'm on Porier straight for 4 units, plus have a few units with a Porier-Bisping parlay. I'm leaning Brunson, but debating the bet.

I like Muhammad over Montano, but don't think the line is out. I also probably like Randy Brown over Montano (his brother). Of course, these depend on what the lines are, but those are some of my initial thoughts.

Agreed on all of those. I think Muhammad wins a decision and neither Montano brother is very good. One thing to note is that Augusto Montano is 15-0 in fights that don't go the distance and 0-2 in fights that do. Maybe I'll play Augusto Montano Scorecards = No Action as the hedge. I think Brunson gets the win convincingly unless he gets KO'ed, which is a definite possibility against Hall.

[xagonzx]

Placed 2u on Lineker (+100). I think Dodson might try to throw hands with him at some point and could get put out.

You're on Lineker?! I'm in shock!

In all seriousness, that's a tough fight. Comes down to Lineker's stalking style vs Dodson's movement. I think Lineker Scorecards NA would be a good bet.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Rockhold vs. Souza II should be a good fight. Any guesses on the line?

[Hugo de Naranja]

You're on Lineker?! I'm in shock!

In all seriousness, that's a tough fight. Comes down to Lineker's stalking style vs Dodson's movement. I think Lineker Scorecards NA would be a good bet.

Good idea! I'll toss a bit on that.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Andre Fili will be filling in for Brian Ortega and fighting Hacran Dias after Ortega had to pull out due to injury.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Bets for Upcoming Fight Night Main Events:
Luke Rockhold (-105) 15.75u to win 15u -> This is an incredible price on Rockhold and has a lot to do with him getting caught against Bisping in his last fight. He holds a win over Souza in a 5-round fight back in Strikeforce a few years back.

Rafael Dos Anjos (-120) 4.8u to win 4u

Dos Anjos/Ferguson Under 3.5 Rounds (+115) 2u

[firekillex]

Bets for Upcoming Fight Night Main Events:
Luke Rockhold (-105) 15.75u to win 15u -> This is an incredible price on Rockhold and has a lot to do with him getting caught against Bisping in his last fight. He holds a win over Souza in a 5-round fight back in Strikeforce a few years back.

Rafael Dos Anjos (-120) 4.8u to win 4u

Dos Anjos/Ferguson Under 3.5 Rounds (+115) 2u

Concerned about rockhold in this next fight , his mind doesn't seem into mma right now he's talking about modelling and all this other crap, jacare has vastly and I mean vastly improved since the last encounter but the -105 price tag is hard to not take the value is definitely there.. This fight is definitely no cake walk though I'd lean rockhold 60/40 but jacare is super dangerous man be careful


dos Anjos/ Ferguson another super super tricky fight , I'm leaning RDA as well and j see you like the under since tony has shown he can be clipped plus he's a potent finisher so if he wins it could be by finish as well... I'll most likely play that u3.5 for +115 only bet for this fight and just enjoy the show between 2 of the 155 elite talents


see the porier line dropped today as well -160 ouch.... Not liking that one bit gonna have to see some prop bets because at that value it's a no play for me . Derek Brunson -180 is a joke as well I was hoping to get the guys at -130 range max ...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Point spreads on both Poirier and Brunson should be +odds and I think both will cash as long as they don't get clipped.

[firekillex]

Point spreads on both Poirier and Brunson should be +odds and I think both will cash as long as they don't get clipped.

Not to confident on -3.5 for either tbh... I see both being super close might honestly play dog on both and hope one cashes for small profit Imo.... Maybe small prop bets on Brunson decision and a porier late finish ... Sucks because I was heavily leaning porier and Brunson, but at those odds I just can't hit it... Uriah hall is way to explosive and could Ko anybody and Michael Johnson is being slept on dudes a legit beast and can strike with anybody at 55

gl on weekend though Hugo

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not to confident on -3.5 for either tbh... I see both being super close might honestly play dog on both and hope one cashes for small profit Imo.... Maybe small prop bets on Brunson decision and a porier late finish ... Sucks because I was heavily leaning porier and Brunson, but at those odds I just can't hit it... Uriah hall is way to explosive and could Ko anybody and Michael Johnson is being slept on dudes a legit beast and can strike with anybody at 55

gl on weekend though Hugo

I think I can figure out some prop hedges for these fights but you have given me some good things to think about. Thanks!

[Hugo de Naranja]

Concerned about rockhold in this next fight , his mind doesn't seem into mma right now he's talking about modelling and all this other crap, jacare has vastly and I mean vastly improved since the last encounter but the -105 price tag is hard to not take the value is definitely there.. This fight is definitely no cake walk though I'd lean rockhold 60/40 but jacare is super dangerous man be careful


dos Anjos/ Ferguson another super super tricky fight , I'm leaning RDA as well and j see you like the under since tony has shown he can be clipped plus he's a potent finisher so if he wins it could be by finish as well... I'll most likely play that u3.5 for +115 only bet for this fight and just enjoy the show between 2 of the 155 elite talents


see the porier line dropped today as well -160 ouch.... Not liking that one bit gonna have to see some prop bets because at that value it's a no play for me . Derek Brunson -180 is a joke as well I was hoping to get the guys at -130 range max ...

Good points to think about. I think Rockhold should be a (-220) and am 90% sure Jacare will close at +odds so this should be easy to buy out of if I think Rockhold's head is not in the game. Also have a few hedges in mind already since it's such a big bet, Rockhold is not flawless, and Jacare is not an easy out.

[xagonzx]

Bets for Upcoming Fight Night Main Events:
Luke Rockhold (-105) 15.75u to win 15u -> This is an incredible price on Rockhold and has a lot to do with him getting caught against Bisping in his last fight. He holds a win over Souza in a 5-round fight back in Strikeforce a few years back.

Rafael Dos Anjos (-120) 4.8u to win 4u

Dos Anjos/Ferguson Under 3.5 Rounds (+115) 2u

Wow Hugo, looks like a huge bet on Rockhold. I'm in shock that he was that low, he's still at (-115)! I don't like Rockhold and can't imagine cheering for him, but I might have to at those odds. That said, Jacare is still a beast and on a mission, so it definitely isn't without risk. I think Jacare has improved his overall game a ton since the Strikeforce title fight, but Rockhold is very well rounded also and might be motivated to get his hands on Bisping again. (Did you watch that post- fight conference, he was furious)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Wow Hugo, looks like a huge bet on Rockhold. I'm in shock that he was that low, he's still at (-115)! I don't like Rockhold and can't imagine cheering for him, but I might have to at those odds. That said, Jacare is still a beast and on a mission, so it definitely isn't without risk. I think Jacare has improved his overall game a ton since the Strikeforce title fight, but Rockhold is very well rounded also and might be motivated to get his hands on Bisping again. (Did you watch that post- fight conference, he was furious)

I consider Rockhold to be the Number 5 P4P fighter in the sport. Dude is a beast although he is super cocky and generally not very likeable. The size of this bet also factors in predicted line movement since the public is likely to pound Rockhold at these odds. I see him closing around (-170).

[firekillex]

I consider Rockhold to be the Number 5 P4P fighter in the sport. Dude is a beast although he is super cocky and generally not very likeable. The size of this bet also factors in predicted line movement since the public is likely to pound Rockhold at these odds. I see him closing around (-170).

Agreed on on most of this , I think he'll definitely close -150/170 range with name value alone.. But this is a super super tough fight if rockhold comes in anything less then 100% he losses this fight .. But at -110 you gotta hope he's all there and take rockhold I'm with you .... Maybe hedge at worst with a jacare itd

[Hugo de Naranja]

Agreed on on most of this , I think he'll definitely close -150/170 range with name value alone.. But this is a super super tough fight if rockhold comes in anything less then 100% he losses this fight .. But at -110 you gotta hope he's all there and take rockhold I'm with you .... Maybe hedge at worst with a jacare itd

In his whole career, I think Rockhold has lost 3 times, all by Round 1 KO interestingly enough. He's great everywhere and once he settles into a rhythm, he is very tough to beat. I've been impressed with Rockhold's ability to keep the fight where he wants it and mix things up when things aren't going his way in one sector of a bout.

[firekillex]

In his whole career, I think Rockhold has lost 3 times, all by Round 1 KO interestingly enough.

Dude could honestly be one of the greatest 185ers ever imo if he gets his head right ... Has one of the nastiest kicks in the game, super athletic and long, suffocating top game and great wrestling ... He just needs keep his hands up and push forward like the first jacare fight but if he tries to do any fancy shit like he didn't against bisping he could easily get finished by tko or sub jacare is a certified animal and he's super focused on getting that title shot ... I really like both guys so I'm pumped for this mini tournament hoping they book Yoel Romero / weidman next for MSG

[Hugo de Naranja]

Dude could honestly be one of the greatest 185ers ever imo if he gets his head right ... Has one of the nastiest kicks in the game, super athletic and long, suffocating top game and great wrestling ... He just needs keep his hands up and push forward like the first jacare fight but if he tries to do any fancy shit like he didn't against bisping he could easily get finished by tko or sub jacare is a certified animal and he's super focused on getting that title shot ... I really like both guys so I'm pumped for this mini tournament hoping they book Yoel Romero / weidman next for MSG

That Romero/Weidman bout is looking very likely. I plan to be there for UFC 205 and I'm hoping for a great fight card!

[xagonzx]

Yeah, I definitely agree that Rockhold has a ton of value in this spot. I'm kinda considering loading up, waiting for Jacare into + odds, then free rolling the difference. I thought Rockhold would open at (-150) at least, considering he was the champ and owns a victory over Jacare already. Rockhold also seems to have the popularity advantage, which inflates his line as well. So I do agree with you all that he'll probably close around (-170).

Gotta agree that Rockhold has the chance to be great if he can keep himself under control (I did bet on a Bisping first round KO). Great fight. Plus Weidman-Romero is in the making already for MSG isn't it? I've also heard rumors of Anderson Silva-Robert Whittaker. With Brunson-Hall this weekend too, MW is looking great for the foreseeable future.

[Hugo de Naranja]

I think porier will be around -140/-150 range and Brunson will be a dog around +125

also new line just dropped and I'm looking for a big play on it , Michael bisping -190 over hendo.. I think bisping is going to starch him here. Hendos movement is absolutely horrendous these days and his chin is shot all he has is that hbomb and I doubt bisping is stupid enough to get caught by it again , I'm guessing he batters him for 2-3 rounds then finishes him late

Looks like you were dead on with your Poirier opening prediction. I guessed Poirier (-190), Brunson (-150) which is pretty much their current prices flipped.

[Hugo de Naranja]

A bunch of lines just dropped for future fights on 5Ds. Anything jumping out to you guys?

[blazes_bff]

Kelvin+135
Cowboy -175

Cerrone looking great since moving up to 170. Going on a run like he did at 155.
Kelvin looked on point against hendricks, but seems like everyone does nowadays.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Kelvin+135
Cowboy -175

Cerrone looking great since moving up to 170. Going on a run like he did at 155.
Kelvin looked on point against hendricks, but seems like everyone does nowadays.

Yeah I like Cowboy here too. He's been a money-train of late. I will wait for (-150) or better to place a ML bet since I think the public will continue to fade Cerrone an we'll get a better price later. If not, there should be some pretty juicy props for this bout.

[firekillex]

A bunch of lines just dropped for future fights on 5Ds. Anything jumping out to you guys?

Ill need to check the lines.. Was really hoping I could snag cerrone at + money vs lawler though
not loving him at all for -175 against gastelum, one of the worst matchups for him tbh he could definitely out strike him but if this is 3 rounder not sure how this'll go at all

[Hugo de Naranja]

Stephen Thompson (-150) 3u to win 2u

Will add more on props when they come out but wanted to get a small stake on Thompson to get started.

[Hugo de Naranja]

All UFC Results:
UFC Fight Night Poirier vs. Johnson = -12.8875u
UFC 203 Miocic vs. Overeem = +13.405u
UFC Fight Night Arlovski vs. Barnett = -3.7425u
UFC Fight Night Maia vs. Condit = +14.1675u
UFC 202 McGregor vs.Diaz = +4.415u
UFC Fight Night Rodriguez vs. Caceres = +5.2775u
UFC 201 Lawler vs. Woodley = +8.85u
UFC Fight Night Holm vs. Shevchenko = +4.645u

Total UFC Profit/Loss: +34.13u

Bellator Results:
Bellator 160 = -1u
Bellator 161 = -1u
Total Bellator Profit/Loss = -2u

Losing weekend this time but I'll get back on the horse next week.

[firekillex]

Stephen Thompson (-150) 3u to win 2u

Will add more on props when they come out but wanted to get a small stake on Thompson to get started.

Super super tough call, I like wonderboy to win but I think Tyron is the only dude at 70 who can take out wonderboy at this point he has the wrestling and the explosiveness the close the distance on him... If wonderboy can take out Tyron 170 will be his to reign...


205--- Tyron Woodley vs wonder boy , Yoel Romero vs weidman, cerrone vs gastelum God dayummmmm this card is gonna be wild, if they announce mcgregor vs Alvarez I may just jizz my pants

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not liking much for the current MLs for the Brazil card. Just Trinaldo so far.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Super super tough call, I like wonderboy to win but I think Tyron is the only dude at 70 who can take out wonderboy at this point he has the wrestling and the explosiveness the close the distance on him... If wonderboy can take out Tyron 170 will be his to reign...


205--- Tyron Woodley vs wonder boy , Yoel Romero vs weidman, cerrone vs gastelum God dayummmmm this card is gonna be wild, if they announce mcgregor vs Alvarez I may just jizz my pants

I think Tyron's wrestling is pretty overrated. He strikes me as one of those guys with legit credentials who elects not to use his wrestling much because he has strong stand-up skills (a la Dan Henderson). I think he can knock anyone's block off early but I see Wonderboy winning this one.

[firekillex]

I think Tyron's wrestling is pretty overrated. He strikes me as one of those guys with legit credentials who elects not to use his wrestling much because he has strong stand-up skills (a la Dan Henderson). I think he can knock anyone's block off early but I see Wonderboy winning this one.

He has a super explosive double leg that nobody's stopping its just the fact of him being able to get into position on wonderboy will be the problem, wonderboy leaves his leg out open for a single leg but I don't see Tyron being able to take him down with that wonderboy is to athletic and smart for that, I think woodleys the hardest matchup for him in the division solely based off his explosiveness being able to close the distance and landing with huge power , we haven't really seen wonderboy get cracked yet, he's been hit but nothing significant because he rolls of the punches well and is usually moving back when he's getting hit , Woodley will only be dangerous the first 10 minutes of the fight but that first 10 minutes he's a lion in there, if it goes further he'll get picked apart all day long... I still lean wonderboy definitely but imo this is the toughest matchup for him at 170 right now... That's why I really wanted lawler to win that last fight because I think that would've been one of wonderboys easier matchups... The wild card is Maia but I think wonderboy would absolutely starch him I can't see Maia coming close to grabbing a leg with his fight IQ and movement , but we'll see I seen the price tags at -200 now wonderboy which I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole, you got value at -160 though for sure Hugo I hope he turns this one out for ya ... I most likely will just watch this bout as a fan and bet on the other fights on the card ... gonna dive into some future fight odds sometime this week when I get a chance btw well have some discussions

[Hugo de Naranja]

He has a super explosive double leg that nobody's stopping its just the fact of him being able to get into position on wonderboy will be the problem, wonderboy leaves his leg out open for a single leg but I don't see Tyron being able to take him down with that wonderboy is to athletic and smart for that, I think woodleys the hardest matchup for him in the division solely based off his explosiveness being able to close the distance and landing with huge power , we haven't really seen wonderboy get cracked yet, he's been hit but nothing significant because he rolls of the punches well and is usually moving back when he's getting hit , Woodley will only be dangerous the first 10 minutes of the fight but that first 10 minutes he's a lion in there, if it goes further he'll get picked apart all day long... I still lean wonderboy definitely but imo this is the toughest matchup for him at 170 right now... That's why I really wanted lawler to win that last fight because I think that would've been one of wonderboys easier matchups... The wild card is Maia but I think wonderboy would absolutely starch him I can't see Maia coming close to grabbing a leg with his fight IQ and movement , but we'll see I seen the price tags at -200 now wonderboy which I wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole, you got value at -160 though for sure Hugo I hope he turns this one out for ya ... I most likely will just watch this bout as a fan and bet on the other fights on the card ... gonna dive into some future fight odds sometime this week when I get a chance btw well have some discussions

Sounds good! I also played the under 2.5 (+140) here for a unit and added a unit on Dos Anjos/Ferguson Under 3.5 (+130). I think there's a good chance we see an early finish from either guy in both of those bouts.

[KushMoney]

Okay orange I'm liking all of your picks lately so hear me out.

Khabib vs Alvarez announced.

Thoughts on opening lines and winner of fight if it does happen?

I'm thinking Kalikas opens it near even odds slightly favoring the champ. Alvarez.. but I wouldn't be surprised to see him open the line with khabib as a slight favorite. That's IMO the sharp line as it will draw action on Alvarez..

Good luck!

My pick Khabib decision.

[firekillex]

Khabib will definitely be the favourite if the fight happens wouldn't be surprised to see him at -170 + if the fight is announced

[Hugo de Naranja]

Okay orange I'm liking all of your picks lately so hear me out.

Khabib vs Alvarez announced.

Thoughts on opening lines and winner of fight if it does happen?

I'm thinking Kalikas opens it near even odds slightly favoring the champ. Alvarez.. but I wouldn't be surprised to see him open the line with khabib as a slight favorite. That's IMO the sharp line as it will draw action on Alvarez..

Good luck!

My pick Khabib decision.

Khabib is such a tough matchup for everybody at LW and I think he has a good chance at winning a decision against Alvarez although the champ has excellent TDD. My guess for the opening line is Nurmy (-150)/Alvarez (+110)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Robert Whittaker to fight Derek Brunson on the upcoming card in Australia. I like Brunson here but think he may open as the dog.

[bjpenn85]

Robert Whittaker to fight Derek Brunson on the upcoming card in Australia. I like Brunson here but think he may open as the dog.

If the fight against natal is what whittaker lookes like in a three round fight, brunson is the pick. I was shocked of how close that fight was.