UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez (August 06, 2016)

[JIBBBY]

Geez, I wouldn't even put Cub in there. Yair went back up I see.

Crusher will gas and or get knocked out.. Cub Swanson probably wins rounds 2 and 3 if it goes the distance which I don't think it will.. Crusher always gasses out late in fights and just hangs on.. Cub will be able to defend the TD's better as the fight goes on.. Probably gets the KO or stoppage late in the 3rd..

Crusher turns 39 years old in a few months, Cub Swanson 32 and maybe in his MMA prime.. He's fought the best and is just a better all around fighter and there is no other way to say it...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Cub-Swanson-11002

$100.00

$120.00

Pending

8/6/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2009 Swanson wins inside distance +120* vs Not Swanson inside distance

[Hugo de Naranja]

Cub Swanson, Dennis Bermudez, and Yair Rodrigues pops first to mind for this card and in that order..

I'm pretty confident those 3 land... The odds reflect that as well unfortunately...

$200.00	$263.10	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -325* vs Alex Caceres
				Pending	8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -240* vs Rony Jason
				Pending	8/6/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson -400* vs Tatsuya Kawajiri

Bermudez is super overrated imo. These guys all should be favorites but the prices are terrible.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Liking David Teymur a lot in this spot. His striking and TDD in his last fight impressed me.

[JIBBBY]

Liking David Teymur a lot in this spot. His striking and TDD in his last fight impressed me a lot.

155 lbs.: David Teymur vs. Jason Novelli


The Muay Thai pedigree of David Teymur (4-1) carried him to the quarterfinals of TUF 22, where he lost a majority decision to teammate Marcin Wrzosek. Though he did not join his castmates at the Finale, he announced his entrance into UFC this past February with a crushing knockout of teammate Martin Svensson.

Three of his four wins have come by knockout.
Jason Novelli (11-1-1) opened his career with seven finishes in seven fights before running afoul of Ben "Phoenix Jones" Fodor, who choked out "Flipside" in the latter’s second SFL appearance. Novelli went on two win four straight before settling for a questionable draw against former UFC competitor Yosdenis Cedeno.
He stands three inches taller than Teymur at 6’0."
Novelli is a capable striker in his own right and his history of submission finishes suggest that he’ll have the edge on the mat, but I’m hesitant to pick against Teymur after how dominant he looked against Svensson. There’s a very good chance this turns into a striking battle, one where I favor Teymur’s power and experience in the art over Novelli’s length advantage.
If Novelli had shown himself more willing to take it to the ground against Cedeno -- who has consistently shown himself to have the ground game of a dying carp -- I might be willing to give him the nod. As is, he’s far too likely to give Teymur the stand up war he wants. Teymur catches him cold sometime in the second round.
Prediction: Teymur by second-round technical knockout

[Hugo de Naranja]

155 lbs.: David Teymur vs. Jason Novelli


The Muay Thai pedigree of David Teymur (4-1) carried him to the quarterfinals of TUF 22, where he lost a majority decision to teammate Marcin Wrzosek. Though he did not join his castmates at the Finale, he announced his entrance into UFC this past February with a crushing knockout of teammate Martin Svensson.

Three of his four wins have come by knockout.
Jason Novelli (11-1-1) opened his career with seven finishes in seven fights before running afoul of Ben "Phoenix Jones" Fodor, who choked out "Flipside" in the latter’s second SFL appearance. Novelli went on two win four straight before settling for a questionable draw against former UFC competitor Yosdenis Cedeno.
He stands three inches taller than Teymur at 6’0."
Novelli is a capable striker in his own right and his history of submission finishes suggest that he’ll have the edge on the mat, but I’m hesitant to pick against Teymur after how dominant he looked against Svensson. There’s a very good chance this turns into a striking battle, one where I favor Teymur’s power and experience in the art over Novelli’s length advantage.
If Novelli had shown himself more willing to take it to the ground against Cedeno -- who has consistently shown himself to have the ground game of a dying carp -- I might be willing to give him the nod. As is, he’s far too likely to give Teymur the stand up war he wants. Teymur catches him cold sometime in the second round.
Prediction: Teymur by second-round technical knockout

Do you have any thoughts on this one Jibster?

[JIBBBY]

Do you have any thoughts on this one Jibster?

Not yet.. Haven't capped it yet.. Taking my time with this event.. Based on that read though it sounds like the fight will stay standing and it's anyone's fight to win.. Odds kinda reflect that as well...

If you've watched vid on these guys and see something in this match up then you know more then me at this time..

[JIBBBY]

Just a general thought with MMA gambling -

I don't think you should rush to cap fights, run and jump to get in on bets early, try to beat the line movement...I do think it's better to gather as much info, video feed, and interviews leading up then make the call.. Weigh ins can help as well in a few fights at times with an entire card...

You may miss out on some line movement but it's better to take the winning bet and fighter then make the wrong call and or have regrets right before the fight begins..

I've always battled with this concept of betting MMA.. Some fights you know the line will move so you do need to jump on those early on if you have a strong feel for that matchup.. Most other fights on a card you don't have to rush IMO.. Patience is something I battle with constantly when betting MMA still to this day....

Props I do wait now as I know round betting and KO or SUB props will come out closer to fight time with the prelim fights.. Split and Unanimous props come out a bit later on also..

[Hugo de Naranja]

Just a general thought with MMA gambling -

I don't think you should rush to cap fights, run and jump to get in on bets early, try to beat the line movement...I do think it's better to gather as much info, video feed, and interviews leading up then make the call.. Weigh ins can help as well in a few fights at times with an entire card...

You may miss out on some line movement but it's better to take the winning bet and fighter then make the wrong call and or have regrets right before the fight begins..

I've always battled with this concept of betting MMA.. Some fights you know the line will move so you do need to jump on those early on if you have a strong feel for that matchup.. Most other fights on a card you don't have to rush IMO.. Patience is something I battle with constantly when betting MMA still to this day....

Props I do wait now as I know round betting and KO or SUB props will come out closer to fight time with the prelim fights.. Split and Unanimous props come out a bit later on also..

Does 5Ds have split and unanimous for prelim fights? I usually only see it for main events/title fights.

[JIBBBY]

Does 5Ds have split and unanimous for prelim fights? I usually only see it for main events/title fights.

No not often, just the main fights... I believe some pop up once in a while if memory serves me right.. Such as if it's a big name fight on the prelims.. I think I do remember seeing the UN and Spits up for those at times..

Right now this is the only fight that 5dimes has open for these types of props.. More will be added though come fight time...

Sat 8/6

		1043 Caceres wins by 5 rd unanimous decision		+1150
11:59PM		1044 Any other result		-2450
Sat 8/6		1045 Caceres wins by 5 round split/maj dec		+1830
11:59PM		1046 Any other result		-5490
Sat 8/6		1047 Rodriguez wins by 5 round unanimous dec		+440
11:59PM		1048 Any other result		-720
Sat 8/6		1049 Rodriguez wins by 5 round split/maj dec		+860
11:59PM		1050 Any other result		-1760
Sat 8/6		1051 Caceres / Rodriguez starts round 5		+165
11:59PM		1052 Fight won’t start round 5		-205

=======

[Hugo de Naranja]

No not often, just the main fights... I believe some pop up once in a while if memory serves me right.. Such as if it's a big name fight on the prelims.. I think I do remember seeing the UN and Spits up for those at times..

Right now this is the only fight that 5dimes has open for these types of props.. More will be added though come fight time...

Sat 8/6

		1043 Caceres wins by 5 rd unanimous decision		+1150
11:59PM		1044 Any other result		-2450
Sat 8/6		1045 Caceres wins by 5 round split/maj dec		+1830
11:59PM		1046 Any other result		-5490
Sat 8/6		1047 Rodriguez wins by 5 round unanimous dec		+440
11:59PM		1048 Any other result		-720
Sat 8/6		1049 Rodriguez wins by 5 round split/maj dec		+860
11:59PM		1050 Any other result		-1760
Sat 8/6		1051 Caceres / Rodriguez starts round 5		+165
11:59PM		1052 Fight won’t start round 5		-205

=======

Sounds good. I'll be on the lookout.

[Killer_Demo]

Make sure you picks have good cardio this card especially. Salt lake city is higher elevation, not as much as Denver but i can see some guys gassing early this card

[Demonata]

Make sure you picks have good cardio this card especially. Salt lake city is higher elevation, not as much as Denver but i can see some guys gassing early this card

Definitely. I live here. Court mcgee is pretty much my lock. He lives here and is good all around, also really capitalizes on fighters weaknesses.

[Ty$]

Definitely. I live here. Court mcgee is pretty much my lock. He lives here and is good all around, also really capitalizes on fighters weaknesses.

Hard to says he's a lock after his last fight. Steele isn't a good fighter but I think he's way bigger and could just bully McGee around.

[JIBBBY]

Steele has decent cardio himself.. Went to a 5 round unanimous decision win last year and his last fight he went the full 3 just three months ago. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominique-Steele-47845

Dominique Steele needs this win and usually responds well after a loss.. Not saying he's a lock to win but he has a chance against McGee I think...

[Hugo de Naranja]

Make sure you picks have good cardio this card especially. Salt lake city is higher elevation, not as much as Denver but i can see some guys gassing early this card

Excellent point KD. I'm from Denver and I've seen out-of-towners struggle with the altitude on their first few days here. Salt Lake City not too different.

[Rich Benjamins]

Damn, Jibby that's a brutal GIF! Yea, the dogs will bark on this card I think! I like Steele, Cammozzi, and possibly Cummings.

[JIBBBY]

Damn, Jibby that's a brutal GIF! Yea, the dogs will bark on this card I think! I like Steele, Cammozzi, and possibly Cummings.

No soft stuff up in this beast Rich, this is no place for the weak.. Brutal gif indeed.

Steele has his moments in the cage.. Won't be an easy out for McGee...

[Mxs1332]

I have a feeling Dogs will pay out tomorrow night. Might do the martingale Dog betting method for shits and giggles. +100, lose next fight +200, next fight +400, etc

[Ty$]

3 team Prop Parlay
Camozzi by DEC
Cummins by TKO
Cub by TKO
$10 wins $873

Camozzi by DEC
Cummins by DEC
Cub by DEC
$15 wins $348

[JIBBBY]

I have a feeling Dogs will pay out tomorrow night. Might do the martingale Dog betting method for shits and giggles. +100, lose next fight +200, next fight +400, etc

We had a dog heavy card last event.. My spider senses tell me this card could be favorite heavy but then again who frigg'n knows???..

I'm on a few dogs here and there, but nothing like last card down the stretch..

[Rich Benjamins]

3 team Prop Parlay
Camozzi by DEC
Cummins by TKO
Cub by TKO
$10 wins $873

Camozzi by DEC
Cummins by DEC
Cub by DEC
$15 wins $348

Wow, I love those parlays, Ty! I may follow you on the top one.

[Rich Benjamins]

Here's my crazy parlay:

8/6/2016 11:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1211 Camozzi wins by 3 round decision* +205 vs Not Camozzi by 3 round decision 8/6/2016 11:00 PM MMA Props Fighting 1333 Cummings wins by TKO/KO* +700 vs Any other result 8/6/2016 10:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1433 Gigliotti wins by TKO/KO* +170 vs Any other result 8/6/2016 9:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 1607 Steele wins by 3 round decision* +329 vs Not Steele by 3 round decision 8/6/2016 7:30 PM MMA Props Fighting 2033 Swanson wins by TKO/KO* +200 vs Any other result

Risking $15.00 To Win $12,703.13

[Thrilla]

Chase Sherman

https://www.facebook.com/VanillaGorillaMMA/

https://twitter.com/chaseshermanmma

[JIBBBY]

Ty I'm with ya on 2 of those props.. GL!! Hope they stick....

To go along with the ITD prop I also had to try the Cub TKO prop..

$100.00

$200.00

Pending

8/6/16 7:30pm MMA Props Fighting 2033 Swanson wins by TKO/KO +200* vs Any other result

$100.00

$700.00

Pending

8/6/16 11:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1333 Cummings wins by TKO/KO +700* vs Any other result

[Thrilla]

Jibbby Check out Chase Sherman vs Sammy Collingwood very funny fight

[JIBBBY]

Jibbby Check out Chase Sherman vs Sammy Collingwood very funny fight

I see a couple of cans fighting, then your boy Chase drops the boom..

[GoBlue77]

Steele has decent cardio himself.. Went to a 5 round unanimous decision win last year and his last fight he went the full 3 just three months ago. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Dominique-Steele-47845

Dominique Steele needs this win and usually responds well after a loss.. Not saying he's a lock to win but he has a chance against McGee I think...

mcgee has this. he won't lose in his hometown

[JIBBBY]

^^Always bet on Black when it's a reasonably close fight on paper, no?

It be like always fade the Asian fighter when it's a reasonably close fight on paper...

I like to stick to this rule of thumb in MMA at the UFC level as it typically works out more often then not..

Going with man of Steele!!! This is my only bet on this scrap... Not loading up...

$100.00

$175.00

Pending

8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Dominique Steele +175* vs Court McGee

[valueguyman]

first parlay ever, .5 units

389266103-1	8/5/16 1:39pm	$25.00	$368.45	Pending	3 Team Parlay
				Pending	8/6/16 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Chris Camozzi +140* vs Thales Leites
				Pending	8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Horacio Gutierrez +205* vs Teruto Ishihara
				Pending	8/6/16 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2101 Chase Sherman +115* vs Justin Ledet

I think sherman vs ledet is a toss up but sherman has a college football background which should make him the better athlete and wrestler. Gutierrez seems like value because hes gonna be the taller fighter with more reach and a mexican boxing style where as Ishihara is the shorter fighter with the karate style that leaves the hands lower,can expose him. He doesn't necessarily try for take downs a whole lot either so this fight seems like its standing. And Camozzi looks like a grizzled vet who is in the zone, can't bet against that.

[Ty$]

3 Team Prop Parlay
Cummins TKO
Tybura DEC
Ishihara 1st round win
$10 wins $1765

3 Team Prop Parlay
Cummins TKO
Tybura ITD
Ishihara 1st round win
$5 wins $340

I'll be real surprised if Cummins doesn't TKO this guy.

[Hugo de Naranja]

3 Team Prop Parlay
Cummins TKO
Tybura DEC
Ishihara 1st round win
$10 wins $1765

3 Team Prop Parlay
Cummins TKO
Tybura ITD
Ishihara 1st round win
$5 wins $340

I'll be real surprised if Cummins doesn't TKO this guy.

Like Ishihara R1 as well.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Big Steam on Cummings ML down to (+105)

[JIBBBY]

Big Steam on Cummings ML down to (+105)

Yep that was one fight where you just knew the line was gonna drop.. I probably still jumped on too late a few days ago... Anyone know what the opening line on that fight was?

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

8/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Zak Cummings +140* vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

[Hugo de Naranja]

Yep that was one fight where you just knew the line was gonna drop.. I probably still jumped on too late a few days ago... Anyone know what the opening line on that fight was?

$100.00

$140.00

Pending

8/6/16 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Zak Cummings +140* vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Opened Ponz (-175) Cummings (+135). Early action was on Ponz and Cummings peaked at (+160)

[GoBlue77]

^^Always bet on Black when it's a reasonably close fight on paper, no?

It be like always fade the Asian fighter when it's a reasonably close fight on paper...

I like to stick to this rule of thumb in MMA at the UFC level as it typically works out more often then not..

Going with man of Steele!!! This is my only bet on this scrap... Not loading up...

$100.00

$175.00

Pending

8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1601 Dominique Steele +175* vs Court McGee

can't disagree with that strategy however you forgot to include the white boy in front of home crowd factor. never go against it my man