UFC Fight Night: Caceres vs. Rodriguez (August 06, 2016)

**JIBBBY** · 08-05-16, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by GoBlue77

can't disagree with that strategy however you forgot to include the white boy in front of home crowd factor. never go against it my man

At high altitude where the air is thin as well which might also favor home town white power..

That's why I didn't load up.. Gotta stick to my theories though... Over the years these theories of mine have served me right..

Got a benny down on Steele as he's a tough brother and should represent and make this a competitive fight at worse.....

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:13 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

At high altitude where the air is thin as well which might also favor home town white power..

That's why I didn't load up.. Gotta stick to my theories though... Over the years these theories of mine have served me right..

Got a benny down on Steele as he's a tough brother and should represent and make this a competitive fight at worse.....

I feel the same way. Some value on Steele but I'm not going huge here.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:21 PM

UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
Dominique Steele Split Decision
Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision *My pick for FOTN
Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission

**Ty$** · 08-05-16, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
Dominique Steele Split Decision
Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision
Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission

I really think Moroz gets the finish

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:24 PM

UFC FN Salt Lake City Plays:

Fight #1: Sherman vs. Ledet
No Play

Fight #2: Swanson vs. Kawajiri
Kawajiri (+310) 1u
Kawajiri (+325) .5u
Kawajiri Submission (+1390) .25u

Hedge:
Swanson Round 3 (+925) .5u

Fight #3: Ishihara vs. Gutierrez
Does Not Go Distance (-185) 1.85u to win 1u
Ishihara (-185) 1.85u to win 1u
Ishihara ITD (-105) 1.05u to win 1u
Ishihara Round 1 (+225) .25u

Hedge(s):
Gutierrez KO/TKO (+625) .75u
Gutierrez Round 3 (+2100) .25u

Fight #4: Teymur vs. Novelli
Teymur (-105) 4.2u to win 4u
Teymur -3.5 (+165) 1u
Teymur ITD (+299) 1u
Teymur KO/TKO (+385) .5u

Fight #5: Pesta vs. Tybura
No Play

Fight #6: McGee vs. Steele
Steele (+185) 1u

Fight #7: Moroz vs. Taylor
Taylor KO/TKO (+621) 1u

Fight #8: Smith vs. Gigliotti
Smith (+120) 2u
Smith Decision (+470) .5u
Smith Round 3 (+1200) .25u

Fight #9: Ponzinibbio vs. Cummings
Cummings (+155) 2u
Cummings Scorecards = NA (+219) 1u
Cummings ITD (+443) .5u
Cummings KO/TKO (+850) .5u

Hedge:
Ponzinibbio Submission (+1400) .5u

Fight #10: Leites vs. Camozzi
Fight Goes Distance (-170) 3.4u to win 2u
Camozzi Decision (+240) 1u

Hedge(s):
Leites Submission (+365) 1u
Camozzi Round 3 (+1925) .25u

Fight #11: Bermudez vs. Jason
Jason Scorecards = No Action (+151) 2u
Jason (+200) 1u
Jason Submission (+535) .5u
Jason Round 1 (+550) .5u

Hedge(s):
Fight Goes to Decision (+110) 1.5u
Bermudez Round 3 (+1025) .5u
LOOK TO LIVE BET BERMUDEZ After Rd 1

Fight #12: Rodriguez vs. Caceres
Caceres (+250) 2u

Hedge:
Rodriguez Submission (+420) .75u

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:26 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

I really think Moroz gets the finish

That's a definite possibility but I think Taylor is actually the better value at these odds.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:26 PM

UFC FN Salt Lake City Draftkings Lineup:
Teruto Ishihara ($11,500)
Zak Cummings ($10,000)
Chase Sherman ($9,700)
David Teymur ($9,200)
Rony Jason ($9,000)

**Ty$** · 08-05-16, 06:46 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

That's a definite possibility but I think Taylor is actually the better value at these odds.

Not when she's never fought anyone like Moroz. I don't think she sees the third. Short notice regional fighters have been getting stopped. Yahya /// Reis

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 06:59 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

Not when she's never fought anyone like Moroz. I don't think she sees the third. Short notice regional fighters have been getting stopped. Yahya /// Reis

Hey you know me, I ALWAYS bet against debuting fighters. Breaking from the pattern for a small bet this time.

**Ty$** · 08-05-16, 07:05 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Hey you know me, I ALWAYS bet against debuting fighters. Breaking from the pattern for a small bet this time.

Hey it could work with the ladies. Those bitches been hittin!

**Demonata** · 08-05-16, 07:09 PM

That midget woman gonna get destroyed

**Ty$** · 08-05-16, 07:19 PM

Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9

**Rich Benjamins** · 08-05-16, 08:15 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9

I didn't know, but it makes sense. He's not a UFC caliber fighter, never was. Surprised he got moved up in the first place.

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-05-16, 09:23 PM

GL gents, need to get back on the winning track for this one.

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-05-16, 09:30 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

UFC FN Salt Lake City Picks:
Justin Ledet Round 2 Submission
Cub Swanson Unanimous Decision
Teruto Ishihara Rd 1 TKO
David Teymur Rd 2 TKO
Viktor Pesta Unanimous Decision
Dominique Steele Split Decision
Maryna Moroz Unanimous Decision
Trevor Smith Unanimous Decision
Zak Cummings Rd 2 TKO
Chris Camozzi Unanimous Decision
Dennis Bermudez Unanimous Decision *My pick for FOTN
Yair Rodriguez Round 4 Submission

Jumped on the Cummings KO, wanted to take him straight but the value has been depleted at this point. Still might go small while I can get him at +105.

Looking at Steele small also, I know Court is a tough SOB but I was really impressed with Steele last fight and felt like he got robbed. Worth the shot for +190 and a live fighter. Also like Teymur a lot but I am not sure I can lay -160.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-05-16, 09:33 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

Jumped on the Cummings KO, wanted to take him straight but the value has been depleted at this point. Still might go small while I can get him at +105.

Looking at Steele small also, I know Court is a tough SOB but I was really impressed with Steele last fight and felt like he got robbed. Worth the shot for +190 and a live fighter. Also like Teymur a lot but I am not sure I can lay -160.

Love Teymur at (-105) but obviously less value at current odds. Maybe Teymur -3.5 (+165). I think he gets the finish or wins a wide decision 50+% of the time.

**BELM0NT** · 08-06-16, 10:51 AM

Caceres / under 2.5
Bermudez
Camozzi
Cummings
Smith / over 1.5
Moroz / over 2.5
Steele
Pesta
Teymur
Ishihara / under 1.5
Kawajiri
Sherman / over 1.5

Good Luck everyone

**Snowball** · 08-06-16, 12:15 PM

rodriguez
camozzi
ponzinibbio
gigliotti
moroz
steele
teymur

**JIBBBY** · 08-06-16, 12:29 PM

This is the first fight.

I'm on the under 1.5 at -110 as both these guys are basically 1 round fighters... That means neither have really fought past the 1st round in their fights... Check the records for yourself if you don't believe me..

Chase Sherman KO prop at +177 was tempting but I passed on it as I think either of these fighters can win early on...

UFC Fight Pass Early Prelims

Chase
Sherman
"The Vanilla Gorilla"
vs
Justin
Ledet
"El Blanco"

USA
Country
USA

9-1-0
Record
6-0-0

100%
KO/TKO
33%

0%
SUB
67%

0%
DEC
0%

76 in
Height
76 in

252 lbs
Weight
203 lbs

78 in
Reach
80 in

43 in
Leg Reach
43 in

**Thrilla** · 08-06-16, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

This is the first fight.

I'm on the under 1.5 at -110 as both these guys are basically 1 round fighters... That means neither have really fought past the 1st round in their fights... Check the records for yourself if you don't believe me..

Chase Sherman KO prop at +177 was tempting but I passed on it as I think either of these fighters can win early on...

Underish record. That's because they fought cans until now. For both it will be the toughest opponent to date. From what little footage I saw those cans (Amateurs) exposed themself very easy to get finished. Ask myself to what degree they have debutant jitters aswell. + Have the impression both fighters are not very aggressive starters.

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-06-16, 02:02 PM

On Ledet by KO. Big heavyweights, it could be over quick. Hope the TX boy shows out.

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-06-16, 02:16 PM

For those who follow L/M, Teymur has dropped since this morning and is now at -125, and McGee has dropped all the way to -140 from -210 earlier.

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-06-16, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by HurlSweatPants

For those who follow L/M, Teymur has dropped since this morning and is now at -125, and McGee has dropped all the way to -140 from -210 earlier.

Interesting. I wonder why there has been so much steam on Steele. Did you end up betting Teymur?

**HurlSweatPants** · 08-06-16, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja

Interesting. I wonder why there has been so much steam on Steele. Did you end up betting Teymur?

Not yet, waiting to see where the line goes from here, I am looking at other plays at the moment.

If I can get it at -115 I might make a small play.

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 03:44 PM

Small little 3 legged parlay for tonight's action.

1 unit to win 2.32

3 Team Parlay
	Pending	8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -245* vs Rony Jason
	Pending	8/6/16 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1602 Court McGee -155* vs Dominique Steele
	Pending	8/6/16 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1901 Teruto Ishihara -230* vs Horacio Gutierrez

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 03:45 PM

Also for what its worth:
Some handicapping MMA staff picks, free of course.
UFC Fight Night 92

UFN 92	G. Killian	J. Lynch	B. Taschuk	B. Hemminger	N. Kalikas	J. Primetown	B. Wharton	R. Doxtater
Fight #1	Sherman	Sherman	Sherman	Ledet	Ledet	Sherman	Ledet
Fight #2	Kawajiri	Swanson	Kawajiri	Swanson	Swanson	Swanson	Swanson	Swanson
Fight #3	Ishihara	Ishihara	Ishihara	Gutierrez	Ishihara	Ishihara	Ishihara	Ishihara
Fight #4	Teymur	Novelli	Novelli	Teymur	Teymur	Teymur	Teymur	Novelli
Fight #5	Tybura	Pesta	Pesta	Tybura	Pesta	Tybura	Tybura	Pesta
Fight #6	McGee	McGee	McGee	McGee	McGee	McGee	McGee	McGee
Fight #7	Moroz	Moroz	Taylor	Moroz	Moroz	Moroz	Moroz	Moroz
Fight #8	Smith	Gigliotti	Gigliotti	Gigliotti	Gigliotti	Gigliotti	Smith	Smith
Fight #9	Ponzinibbio	Ponz.	Cummings	Ponz.	Cummings	Ponz.	Ponz.	Ponz.
Fight #10	Leites	Camozzi	Leites	Leites	Leites	Leites	Camozzi	Leites
Fight #11	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez	Bermudez
Fight #12	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez	Rodriguez
Last Event	8-2	6-4	8-2	4-6	6-4	6-4	6-4	5-5
2016 Record	164-102	149-116	150-115	160-105	171-94	166-99	151-114	162-103

**Snowball** · 08-06-16, 04:28 PM

well there you go.
they are all on McGee.

we know better.

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Ty$

Did you guys know Ben Saunders got cut? He's fighting Volkmann in MN Sept 9

No way!! I loved Ben Saunders. He was a cool guy and enjoyed him on the Fight Companion podcasts

**JIBBBY** · 08-06-16, 04:44 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Underish record. That's because they fought cans until now. For both it will be the toughest opponent to date. From what little footage I saw those cans (Amateurs) exposed themself very easy to get finished. Ask myself to what degree they have debutant jitters aswell. + Have the impression both fighters are not very aggressive starters.

Cans they did fight, but when you are use to finishing fights in the 1st round and that's all you know your mentality doesn't change.. Both these fighter share that same mentality so chances are someone gets caught and dropped early on, maybe even a sub win for Ledet...

The under 1.5 isn't a lock but I like the chances at almost even odds.. I feel more comfortable playing that then trying to pick a fighter to win..

**Thrilla** · 08-06-16, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by JIBBBY

Cans they did fight, but when you are use to finishing fights in the 1st round and that's all you know your mentality doesn't change.. Both these fighter share that same mentality so chances are someone gets caught and dropped early on, maybe even a sub win for Ledet...

The under 1.5 isn't a lock but I like the chances at almost even odds.. I feel more comfortable playing that then trying to pick a fighter to win..

Yeah difficult to pick a winner. Hope there is livebetting for this early prelim. Sherman is the bigger guy. More chance he might gas quicker thus a live bet late in the fight on Ledet maybe?

**Hugo de Naranja** · 08-06-16, 05:58 PM

Originally posted by Thrilla

Yeah difficult to pick a winner. Hope there is livebetting for this early prelim. Sherman is the bigger guy. More chance he might gas quicker thus a live bet late in the fight on Ledet maybe?

I don't think there is live betting for the FP Prelims.

**JIBBBY** · 08-06-16, 06:07 PM

Here we go!!! Let's end this one in a hurry...

**Mxs1332** · 08-06-16, 06:08 PM

Digging the walkout music by Sherman

LEGGG GO!

**spurginobili** · 08-06-16, 06:10 PM

On the under here..GL folks

**Thrilla** · 08-06-16, 06:13 PM

Nice nice nice nice fight!