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Will qll the lines be out wednessday?Comment -
Yhanks guys. Im trying to think of a good line for a big bet or maybe a two teamer for 500. Any ideas? Thibking gigliotti straight or bermudez cub parlay?Comment -
We all seem to agree on this one. I wouldn't lay -300 on Yair unless I am looking at parlaying him with a dog I am confident in, but the ITD looks good, I jumped not the under 2.5 at -105 when the line came out, line still hasn't moved. Caceras takes too many chances, I love watching him fight but he is not polished at all in regards to following a game plan.
After posting this decides to check the lines and YR is now at -270.Last edited by HurlSweatPants; 08-02-16, 04:26 PM.Comment -
I think betting on Yair Rodriguez is tough at those long odds. Alex Caceres looked really good in his last fight versus Cole Miller. Caceres has skills, but Rodriguez should get the win in a tough battle.Comment -
If you think Rodriguez is not worth a single or straight bet than it's even worse value to play him in a parlay. Stop thinking you get more value in parlay's with big favourites. Makes no sense.Comment -
I'm just trying to think if Cub Swanson knocks out the Crusher or not?..
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Asian fade is full effect with this fight though just for the record.. Just how does it end?
Every time I bet ITD with this guy I lose.. I'm weary now to try that!!! I know Cub can hit hard as well..
Will Cub get taken down early on in this fight and controlled a bit? I do think Cub will be too fast and his TD defense and stuffs will work specially late in the fight when Kawajiri begins to gas out..
Maybe Cub by KO in the 3rd are my early thoughts... Props aren't up yet...
Just for the record Kawajiri has gone to decision in his last 4 fights against tough guys.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Tatsuya-Kawajiri-1326
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-02-16, 07:53 PM.Comment -
Cub straight hedge is Crusher by decisionComment -
Beelz I wish you posted more!!!.. I think that's a very sharp hedge play right there for this fight...
Wrestling based fighters with limited submission skills like Kawajiri typically win fights by decision via the lay and pray.. (Last 4 fights ended in decisions 2-2 in those )
If the fight stays standing and the wrestler is facing a much better striker like Cub and the wrestler starts gassing out late in the fight they usually get knocked out or get sub'd out before the final bell sounds..
That's MMA text book gambling stuff you posted right there Beelz if the odds for the hedge both ways make sense....
I think I gamble and hedge cub ITD and Crusher by decision if the odds aren't workable on the above mentioned hedge....
Cub is pretty athletic and has some throws too.. Dennis Siver went for ride..
Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-02-16, 10:30 PM.Comment -
Watching the Miller Caceras fight, can't tell if Alex looked that good but I know that Miller looked awful. Yair won't turtle and have as much trouble with his speed. Miller looked awful until he basically fell into an arm bar.Comment -
I think I'll be on mostly dogs for this card.Comment -
value on kawajiri that one stood out the most, right now close to +300Comment -
These lines are interesting: Ponzinibbio/Cummins, Steele/McGee, and Camozzi/Leites. Couldn't the lines for all 3 just as easily be reversed? Maybe the play is to bet on the dogs for all 3 lines.Comment -
Mcgee and leites should be favourites , higher ranked, better wins, more skill set I think the odds are about right both should get the W
btw for those props you guys could definitely get buried. Cub should win that fight by decision imo kawajiri is super tough and likes to be in your face all fight long he won't gas In a 3 rounder , his style of constantly shooting is hard to finish unless you guillotine him which I doubt will happen or cub lands a flying knee which is possibly but I think he outpoints him in a 30/27 that's somewhat close. cub hasn't had a finish win since 2013 , kawajiri is tough as nails with a solid chin unless cub lands a really nice combo but first thing he lands kawajiri will be shooting in trying to recover / take him down and close the distance to not get hit so it's tough in a 3 rounder not always a lot of time... Unless the price is right for cub ITD I'd lean cub decision imoComment -
Those are about the only dogs with names worth a try IMO on this card.. Still a gamble..
I'm liking the favorites on this card but may still try Steel and Cummings.. Camozzi is a tough call but I'll probably play him as well.... Not going big on anyone of these guys though..
Guiterrez is another dog I may still consider in the prelims.. I'm still working the prelims on this card though..Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-03-16, 11:25 AM.Comment -
Gente BkofAma will win easy IMO....McGee.....Prob win as well....Camozzi may be worth a bet...MAYComment -
UFC Fight Night 92 predictions: 'Rodriguez vs Caceres' FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2MMA MANIA -
UFC Fight Night 92 predictions: 'Rodriguez vs Caceres' Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
145 lbs.: Cub Swanson vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Following one-sided stoppage losses to Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, the year-long hiatus for Cub Swanson (22-7) ended as he stepped into the cage against durable Nova Uniao grinder Hacran Dias. The fight saw something of a return to form for the Jackson Wink MMA Academy-trained product, who dropped Dias twice on the way to a unanimous decision win.
He has knocked out eight opponents and submitted another seven.
Solid wins over Dennis Siver and Jason Knight set up a clash between Tatsuya Kawajiri (35-9-2) and fellow wrestling powerhouse Dennis Bermudez. Kawajri struggled to bring "The Menace" to the mat and ultimately lost a decision after being sprawled-and-brawled by his younger foe.
"Crusher" has been competing in mixed martial arts (MMA) for more than 16 years.
Five years ago, when Kawajiri was first dropping to Featherweight and still had some confidence in his punching, I’d have picked him in a heartbeat. Swanson has historically struggled with powerful top games and his off-the-wall striking attack has a bad habit of leaving him open for takedowns.
Right now, though? Swanson’s got this.
Kawajiri’s biggest issue is that -- while he’s absurdly strong and has good takedown technique -- he doesn’t set up his shots well. Whether this is a product of his time fighting in a ring or simply wear-and-tear, he has issues getting in on people’s hips without a monumental struggle. Swanson’s powerful uppercuts and ability to deal damage in transition ought to be too much for the current iteration of Kawajiri. I’m rooting for "Crusher," but I think he succumbs to his foe’s power punching.
Prediction: Swanson by first-round technical knockout
265 lbs.: Justin Ledet vs. Chase Sherman
Following five stoppage wins in his first five fights, Justin Ledet (6-0) made the move to boxing, ultimately amassing a perfect (5-0) record with two knockouts. More than 3.5 years later, he returned to the cage with a first-round submission and was last seen accidentally poking Brice Ritani-Coe in the eye under the Legacy Fighting Championship banner.
He has submitted four opponents and knocked out another two.
Chase Sherman (9-1) -- a protege of Octagon veteran Alan Belcher -- took out his first five opponents before suffering a stoppage loss to current Light Heavyweight Alex Nicholson. He’s since won four straight, each of them via knockout and each in less than two minutes.
All of his wins have come by first-round knockout.
There’s no recent footage of Ledet and I wasn’t super impressed with what I saw of Sherman, leaving me in something of a pickle. Worse, both of their most recent fights ended with an early accident, Ledet’s with the aforementioned eye poke and Sherman’s with a freak leg injury to his opponent.
What little I saw of Ledet’s striking looked better than Sherman’s, as I’m not convinced the latter knows what a hook is, and the fact that Sherman’s never gone past the first round is as much a red flag as it is an accomplishment. I say Ledet handles himself on the feet before eventually submitting a fading Sherman late in the second.
Prediction: Ledet via second-round submission
170 lbs.: Court McGee vs. Dominique Steele
Following a nearly two-year layoff, Court McGee (17-5) returned to action with a grinding decision over The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil 3" finalist Marcio "Lyoto." TUF: "Brazil" got its revenge one fight later, when McGee suffered the first knockout loss of his career at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio.
He has gone 3-2 overall since dropping to Welterweight.
Dominique Steele (14-7) came back from a knockout loss in his UFC debut with a dominant knockout of Dong Hyun Kim, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus in the process. Five months later, he again lived up to his nickname in a strong-but-losing effort against Danny Roberts that earned them "Fight of the Night."
"Non-Stop Action-Packed" has knocked out four opponents and submitted another three.
Provided Ponzinibbio didn’t crack McGee’s chin for good, this has all the makings of a barnburner. This is a great fight between aggressive, well-rounded 170-pound fighters with solid cardio and a distaste for moving backward. The clinching factor may be that Steele’s chin has failed him four times to McGee’s one. It’s hard to be comfortable picking him in a fight wherein I expect constant furious exchanges. McGee’s not a big hitter, but I think he can do enough damage to just edge out a competitive decision.
Prediction: McGee via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Viktor Pesta vs. Marcin Tybura
Though he managed to knock down his foe with a heavy knee, Viktor Pesta (10-2) ultimately fell short in his Octagon debut opposite Ruslan Magomedov. He rebounded with an upset of hyped knockout artist Konstantin Erokhin, but ran out of gas against Derrick Lewis and suffered a knockout defeat. Four of his wins have come by form of knockout.
Marcin Tybura (13-2) -- the former M-1 Heavyweight Champion -- lost some luster in a technical knockout loss to 205-pound champion Stephan Puetz. "Tybur" got back in the win column with a first-round stoppage of rising Croat Ante Delija, earning a crack at UFC in the process, but dropped a decision to Timothy Johnson in his first Octagon appearance.
Eleven of his 13 wins have come inside the distance.
There’s a good chance this one winds up being a bore, unfortunately. Both Pesta and Tybura do their best work from top position and neither is an overpowering wrestler. Still, I can’t abdicate my prediction duties for bad fights, so here’s why Tybura’s going to win.
Pesta gassed badly last time out despite spending nearly two full rounds in top position, while Tybura came on strong in the third against Johnson. In addition, Tybura has a much stronger resume than Pesta, whose best win is probably still the massive flop that was Konstantin Erokhin. Tybura wins the grappling exchanges and holds his own on the feet for a decision win.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: David Teymur vs. Jason Novelli
The Muay Thai pedigree of David Teymur (4-1) carried him to the quarterfinals of TUF 22, where he lost a majority decision to teammate Marcin Wrzosek. Though he did not join his castmates at the Finale, he announced his entrance into UFC this past February with a crushing knockout of teammate Martin Svensson.
Three of his four wins have come by knockout.
Jason Novelli (11-1-1) opened his career with seven finishes in seven fights before running afoul of Ben "Phoenix Jones" Fodor, who choked out "Flipside" in the latter’s second SFL appearance. Novelli went on two win four straight before settling for a questionable draw against former UFC competitor Yosdenis Cedeno.
He stands three inches taller than Teymur at 6’0."
Novelli is a capable striker in his own right and his history of submission finishes suggest that he’ll have the edge on the mat, but I’m hesitant to pick against Teymur after how dominant he looked against Svensson. There’s a very good chance this turns into a striking battle, one where I favor Teymur’s power and experience in the art over Novelli’s length advantage.
If Novelli had shown himself more willing to take it to the ground against Cedeno -- who has consistently shown himself to have the ground game of a dying carp -- I might be willing to give him the nod. As is, he’s far too likely to give Teymur the stand up war he wants. Teymur catches him cold sometime in the second round.
Prediction: Teymur by second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Teruto Ishihara vs. Horacio Gutierrez
The brash Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2) battered his way to the finals of TUF: "Japan," starting strong before ultimately fading against Mizuto Hirota for a split draw. His next appearance saw him brutally knock out TUF 22 competitor Julian Erosa in the second round.
"Yashabo" has knocked out seven opponents overall.
Horacio Gutierrez (2-2) enjoyed his own successful run with two solid victories on TUF: "Latin America 2." This set up a Finale showdown with Enrique Barzola, who exploited Gutierrez’s grappling deficiencies to take a dominant decision win.
"The Punisher" stands three inches taller than Ishihara at 5’10".
This really looks like a showcase for Ishihara, who gets an opponent who’s more than willing to trade leather and who lacks the veteran savvy that Hirota used to defuse "Yashabo" as the fight progressed. The only real red flags are Ishihara’s dedication to training and the size discrepancy, as he’s bounced between Bantamweight and Featherweight, while Gutierrez has fought as high as 170 pounds.
Despite these concerns and Gutierrez’s boxing prowess, I’m leaning toward Ishihara, whose speed and power ought to drag his foe into the type of firefight he excels in. From there, it’s just a matter of time.
Prediction: Ishihara via first-round knockout
Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 96-60-4
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Excellent analysis Jibby, thanks. You seem to have it down pat, I may follow you on some.UFC Fight Night 92 predictions: 'Rodriguez vs Caceres' FOX Sports 1 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 2
170 lbs.: Court McGee vs. Dominique Steele
Following a nearly two-year layoff, Court McGee (17-5) returned to action with a grinding decision over The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil 3" finalist Marcio "Lyoto." TUF: "Brazil" got its revenge one fight later, when McGee suffered the first knockout loss of his career at the hands of Santiago Ponzinibbio.
He has gone 3-2 overall since dropping to Welterweight.
Dominique Steele (14-7) came back from a knockout loss in his UFC debut with a dominant knockout of Dong Hyun Kim, earning a "Performance of the Night" bonus in the process. Five months later, he again lived up to his nickname in a strong-but-losing effort against Danny Roberts that earned them "Fight of the Night."
"Non-Stop Action-Packed" has knocked out four opponents and submitted another three.
Provided Ponzinibbio didn’t crack McGee’s chin for good, this has all the makings of a barnburner. This is a great fight between aggressive, well-rounded 170-pound fighters with solid cardio and a distaste for moving backward. The clinching factor may be that Steele’s chin has failed him four times to McGee’s one. It’s hard to be comfortable picking him in a fight wherein I expect constant furious exchanges. McGee’s not a big hitter, but I think he can do enough damage to just edge out a competitive decision.
Prediction: McGee via unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Viktor Pesta vs. Marcin Tybura
Though he managed to knock down his foe with a heavy knee, Viktor Pesta (10-2) ultimately fell short in his Octagon debut opposite Ruslan Magomedov. He rebounded with an upset of hyped knockout artist Konstantin Erokhin, but ran out of gas against Derrick Lewis and suffered a knockout defeat. Four of his wins have come by form of knockout.
Marcin Tybura (13-2) -- the former M-1 Heavyweight Champion -- lost some luster in a technical knockout loss to 205-pound champion Stephan Puetz. "Tybur" got back in the win column with a first-round stoppage of rising Croat Ante Delija, earning a crack at UFC in the process, but dropped a decision to Timothy Johnson in his first Octagon appearance.
Eleven of his 13 wins have come inside the distance.
There’s a good chance this one winds up being a bore, unfortunately. Both Pesta and Tybura do their best work from top position and neither is an overpowering wrestler. Still, I can’t abdicate my prediction duties for bad fights, so here’s why Tybura’s going to win.
Pesta gassed badly last time out despite spending nearly two full rounds in top position, while Tybura came on strong in the third against Johnson. In addition, Tybura has a much stronger resume than Pesta, whose best win is probably still the massive flop that was Konstantin Erokhin. Tybura wins the grappling exchanges and holds his own on the feet for a decision win.
Prediction: Tybura via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: David Teymur vs. Jason Novelli
The Muay Thai pedigree of David Teymur (4-1) carried him to the quarterfinals of TUF 22, where he lost a majority decision to teammate Marcin Wrzosek. Though he did not join his castmates at the Finale, he announced his entrance into UFC this past February with a crushing knockout of teammate Martin Svensson.
Three of his four wins have come by knockout.
Jason Novelli (11-1-1) opened his career with seven finishes in seven fights before running afoul of Ben "Phoenix Jones" Fodor, who choked out "Flipside" in the latter’s second SFL appearance. Novelli went on two win four straight before settling for a questionable draw against former UFC competitor Yosdenis Cedeno.
He stands three inches taller than Teymur at 6’0."
Novelli is a capable striker in his own right and his history of submission finishes suggest that he’ll have the edge on the mat, but I’m hesitant to pick against Teymur after how dominant he looked against Svensson. There’s a very good chance this turns into a striking battle, one where I favor Teymur’s power and experience in the art over Novelli’s length advantage.
If Novelli had shown himself more willing to take it to the ground against Cedeno -- who has consistently shown himself to have the ground game of a dying carp -- I might be willing to give him the nod. As is, he’s far too likely to give Teymur the stand up war he wants. Teymur catches him cold sometime in the second round.
Prediction: Teymur by second-round technical knockout
145 lbs.: Teruto Ishihara vs. Horacio Gutierrez
The brash Teruto Ishihara (8-2-2) battered his way to the finals of TUF: "Japan," starting strong before ultimately fading against Mizuto Hirota for a split draw. His next appearance saw him brutally knock out TUF 22 competitor Julian Erosa in the second round.
"Yashabo" has knocked out seven opponents overall.
Horacio Gutierrez (2-2) enjoyed his own successful run with two solid victories on TUF: "Latin America 2." This set up a Finale showdown with Enrique Barzola, who exploited Gutierrez’s grappling deficiencies to take a dominant decision win.
"The Punisher" stands three inches taller than Ishihara at 5’10".
This really looks like a showcase for Ishihara, who gets an opponent who’s more than willing to trade leather and who lacks the veteran savvy that Hirota used to defuse "Yashabo" as the fight progressed. The only real red flags are Ishihara’s dedication to training and the size discrepancy, as he’s bounced between Bantamweight and Featherweight, while Gutierrez has fought as high as 170 pounds.
Despite these concerns and Gutierrez’s boxing prowess, I’m leaning toward Ishihara, whose speed and power ought to drag his foe into the type of firefight he excels in. From there, it’s just a matter of time.
Prediction: Ishihara via first-round knockout
Current UFC "Prelims" Prediction Record 2016: 96-60-4Comment -
That's not my write up Rich, I pull (copy and paste) that off MMAmania just to help with my capping.. My write ups would read slightly different.. I would add more trends and stats myself..
I do like this writers short reads, he packs in key information and is decent with his winning percentage.. I only stick to winners....Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-03-16, 12:04 PM.Comment -
I think there's value on Kawajiri as well since Swanson's TDD and sub defense is not good. A major problem with Kawajiri is that he doesn't seem to do much damage from top position so he can get multiple takedowns in a round and have control but still drop the round due to inactivity.Comment -
I'd like to think I'm a top notch MMA capper and can hold my own with the best... I thought you guys knew that already???..
I don't have time for MMA write up jobs and no small sports company can pay me enough to do it... Well I guess if ESPN came calling I'd consider it..
I'd rather be thinking about prop betting, smart hedging, and solid dog plays..
This is what I do for a part time job with this sport of MMA fellas.. I bet, win and have fun and make this green stuff below..
BEST JOB THERE IS
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In your opinion what are the 3 biggest locks on this card? Thanks manI'd like to think I'm a top notch MMA capper and can hold my own with the best... I thought you guys knew that already???..
I don't have time for MMA write up jobs and no small sports company can pay me enough to do it... Well I guess if ESPN came calling I'd consider it..
I'd rather be thinking about prop betting, smart hedging, and solid dog plays..
This is what I do for a part time job with this sport of MMA fellas.. I bet, win and have fun and make this green stuff below..
BEST JOB THERE IS
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Cub Swanson, Dennis Bermudez, and Yair Rodrigues pops first to mind for this card and in that order..
I'm pretty confident those 3 land... The odds reflect that as well unfortunately...
$200.00 $263.10 Pending 3 Team Parlay Pending 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Yair Rodriguez -325* vs Alex Caceres Pending 8/6/16 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Dennis Bermudez -240* vs Rony Jason Pending 8/6/16 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Cub Swanson -400* vs Tatsuya Kawajiri Last edited by JIBBBY; 08-03-16, 03:50 PM.Comment
