Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

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  • Hugo de Naranja
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 04-14-16
    • 14140

    #491
    Originally posted by latarianmilton
    Thoughts on the under for the cowboy fight? im surprised its only at -120, im feeling Brown got USADA'd he used to be an animal and in his last two fights hes looked like day and night, just too tentative, i think he folds when Cerrone starts beating him up, even on the ground Brown could get subbed.
    Took it for a pretty big stake at (-105). Both guys are the finish/get finished type.
    Comment
    • bjpenn85
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 02-17-11
      • 5059

      #492
      Final Plays UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis

      10 units on Cerrone, Max Holloway @ 2.09 to win - 10.9
      5 units on Jordan Mein @ 1.62 to win - 3.1 units
      5 units on Makovsky/Ortiz over 2.5 round, Jordan Mein @ 2.27 to win - 6.35 units
      1.25 unit on Mike Brown tko @ 6.25 to win back - 6.5 unit









      Comment
      • Hugo de Naranja
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 04-14-16
        • 14140

        #493
        On a lot of the same stuff myself. Best of luck to us
        Comment
        • bjpenn85
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-17-11
          • 5059

          #494
          I will add Pettis inside distance if cerrone wins, so that the parlay doesnt bust.
          Comment
          • Hugo de Naranja
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 04-14-16
            • 14140

            #495
            You might consider adding Pettis Scorecards = No Action as the hedge if they release the prop. It should pay about 2/1 and will push if the fight goes the distance, where I expect Max to win a wide decision.
            Comment
            • bjpenn85
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 02-17-11
              • 5059

              #496
              Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
              You might consider adding Pettis Scorecards = No Action as the hedge if they release the prop. It should pay about 2/1 and will push if the fight goes the distance, where I expect Max to win a wide decision.
              I agree
              Comment
              • Igor_1965
                SBR MVP
                • 04-18-15
                • 2631

                #497
                no Albany action?
                Comment
                • bjpenn85
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 02-17-11
                  • 5059

                  #498
                  Originally posted by Igor_1965
                  no Albany action?
                  Just some small parlays for fun, lewis inside, francis ngannou with dominick cruz.
                  Comment
                  • Hugo de Naranja
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 04-14-16
                    • 14140

                    #499
                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                    Just some small parlays for fun, lewis inside, francis ngannou with dominick cruz.
                    Favorites dominated this card. I believe they were 12-0
                    Comment
                    • bjpenn85
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 02-17-11
                      • 5059

                      #500
                      Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                      Favorites dominated this card. I believe they were 12-0
                      Some of the favourites had significantly more experience and had performed on a higher level. Like Villante. Although he sucks, he still is a lot better than regional cans. I slept through the whole event and woke up 1 min before lewis got the tko.
                      Comment
                      • Hugo de Naranja
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 04-14-16
                        • 14140

                        #501
                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                        Some of the favourites had significantly more experience and had performed on a higher level. Like Villante. Although he sucks, he still is a lot better than regional cans. I slept through the whole event and woke up 1 min before lewis got the tko.
                        Yup. I backed Villante here but don't favor him against most top 15 LHWs
                        Comment
                        • mackave
                          SBR MVP
                          • 03-22-14
                          • 4972

                          #502
                          err, posted something, wrong thread! GL!
                          Comment
                          • bjpenn85
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-17-11
                            • 5059

                            #503
                            [QUOTE=bjpenn85;26613306]Final Plays UFC 206: Holloway vs Pettis

                            10 units on Cerrone, Max Holloway @ 2.09 to win - 10.9
                            5 units on Jordan Mein @ 1.62 to win - 3.1 units
                            5 units on Makovsky/Ortiz over 2.5 round, Jordan Mein @ 2.27 to win - 6.35 units
                            1.25 unit on Mike Brown tko @ 6.25 to win back - 6.5 unit

                            Event result:-0,3 units

                            Jordan Mein, what a complete douchebag.
                            Comment
                            • freeVICK
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-21-08
                              • 7114

                              #504
                              U from hawaii brah. Bet max and pau. No touch nothing else
                              Comment
                              • bjpenn85
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-17-11
                                • 5059

                                #505
                                Originally posted by freeVICK
                                U from hawaii brah. Bet max and pau. No touch nothing else
                                Betting Mein, as much as holloway and cerrone is a horrible mistake. I was not confident in Mein, but i knew holloway and cerrone would win. Thats not how you size up wagers.
                                Comment
                                • Igor_1965
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 04-18-15
                                  • 2631

                                  #506
                                  I'm no pro but having watched all three fights I think it's hardly fair to say Cerrone and Holloway were good individual bets. At -150 range, sure. At -250? Early rounds way too close.

                                  And Mein needs a shrink. He's like James Franco's character in Why Him. Probably got bullied in school.
                                  Comment
                                  • bjpenn85
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-17-11
                                    • 5059

                                    #507
                                    Originally posted by Igor_1965
                                    I'm no pro but having watched all three fights I think it's hardly fair to say Cerrone and Holloway were good individual bets. At -150 range, sure. At -250? Early rounds way too close.

                                    And Mein needs a shrink. He's like James Franco's character in Why Him. Probably got bullied in school.
                                    Didnt fin holloway vs pettis very close, cerrone vs brown was way to close.
                                    Comment
                                    • bjpenn85
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-17-11
                                      • 5059

                                      #508
                                      UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson


                                      3.5 units on Emmet/Faber @ 1.77 to win - 2.8 units

                                      Emmet is better than holtzman standing effectively but also in terms of combos and variety. Hopefully also in the wrestling department. He has that typical showoff striking, proving to the judges that he wins rounds. So even if this getting close, which i think it will, he will win a 29-28 type of dec.

                                      Faber is better than Pickett all around, and the only time pickett actually has won in years are when he has used his wrestling to eak out close dec against other fighters having little wrestling. That wont work here.


                                      This card appears to be horrible for betting. Next card looks decent. If in need for some action, go for prop plays instead will be my advise.
                                      Last edited by bjpenn85; 12-12-16, 11:22 AM.
                                      Comment
                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 04-14-16
                                        • 14140

                                        #509
                                        Even this version of Faber is probably safe against Pickett at (-500). I'm not sure if there's any value on Emmett at these odds though. He's looked impressive in his 1 UFC fight but it was still a split decision against Jon Tuck who sucks. I think this is a good fight to get information but not to bet a whole lot on.
                                        Comment
                                        • bjpenn85
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-17-11
                                          • 5059

                                          #510
                                          Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                          Even this version of Faber is probably safe against Pickett at (-500). I'm not sure if there's any value on Emmett at these odds though. He's looked impressive in his 1 UFC fight but it was still a split decision against Jon Tuck who sucks. I think this is a good fight to get information but not to bet a whole lot on.
                                          It was a split dec because the judges got the score wrong. Tuck sucks, but holtzman fought too even with fighters that are way worse than tuck. Pfister and that christodoloulouloulou. Josh Emmet won easily gets tuck without preparation. But, the 1 fight in the ufc is def a typical reason why i loose, so i think were in full agreement here about the risk. Its only 3.5 units. So im willing to gamble a little bit here. And holtzman do also struggle with finishing fight, so if hes winning, its probably a controversial dec. I probably hedge with holtzman dec + faber for 0.25 units and get all my cash back. Faber and holtzman are not losing on the same card. This is a new way of hedging i have used lately. Its a genius move a brainiac friend of mine gave me. Works everytime.
                                          Comment
                                          • bjpenn85
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 02-17-11
                                            • 5059

                                            #511
                                            Adding:

                                            1,5 units on Bryan Barberena dec @ 8.7 to win - 10.6 units
                                            Comment
                                            • bjpenn85
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-17-11
                                              • 5059

                                              #512
                                              UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson

                                              event result: + 1.3 units
                                              Comment
                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 04-14-16
                                                • 14140

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                UFC on FOX 22: Van Zant vs Waterson

                                                event result: + 1.3 units
                                                At least somebody won on this event!
                                                Comment
                                                • bjpenn85
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                  • 5059

                                                  #514
                                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                  At least somebody won on this event!
                                                  Difficult event to bet on, so i had to limit myself to bet pennies.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                    • 14140

                                                    #515
                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                    Difficult event to bet on, so i had to limit myself to bet pennies.
                                                    I respect the discipline
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                      • 5059

                                                      #516
                                                      UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


                                                      Pending parlays

                                                      7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units
                                                      1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 4 units

                                                      1.5 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 3.75 units
                                                      05. units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units
                                                      Comment
                                                      • bjpenn85
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 02-17-11
                                                        • 5059

                                                        #517
                                                        Adding:

                                                        1.5 units on Garbrandt inside dist @ 3.5 to win back - 3.75 units
                                                        Comment
                                                        • bjpenn85
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 02-17-11
                                                          • 5059

                                                          #518
                                                          UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


                                                          7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units

                                                          1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 2.3 units

                                                          Hedge
                                                          3 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 7.5 units

                                                          0.5 units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Beelzebubzy
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 06-06-11
                                                            • 6995

                                                            #519
                                                            Dude, turn Pro. You have a lot of bet points. They are useless unless you are a pro.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • bjpenn85
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 02-17-11
                                                              • 5059

                                                              #520
                                                              Originally posted by Beelzebubzy
                                                              Dude, turn Pro. You have a lot of bet points. They are useless unless you are a pro.
                                                              First of all, regardless of how much you have as a non pro, they will be reset back to 3000 once you turn pro.

                                                              The bet point system doesnt interest me that much.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 04-14-16
                                                                • 14140

                                                                #521
                                                                Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                UFC 207: Nunes vs Rousey 30th dec


                                                                7,5 units on Francis Ngannou, Dominick Cruz @ 1.71 to win - 5.3 units

                                                                1 unit on Elliot/Johnson goes 5 round distance, Cain V. Dominick Cruz to win - 2.3 units

                                                                Hedge
                                                                3 units on Garbrandt inside @ 3.5 to win back - 7.5 units

                                                                0.5 units on Garbrandt dec @9.76 to win back - 4.3 units
                                                                Not as confident in Cruz anymore?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • bjpenn85
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 02-17-11
                                                                  • 5059

                                                                  #522
                                                                  Originally posted by Hugo de Naranja
                                                                  Not as confident in Cruz anymore?
                                                                  Im pretty confident he will win, if he doesnt get Koed. Garbrandt doesnt have any chance of winning outside KO.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 04-14-16
                                                                    • 14140

                                                                    #523
                                                                    Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                    Im pretty confident he will win, if he doesnt get Koed. Garbrandt doesnt have any chance of winning outside KO.
                                                                    Agreed
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bjpenn85
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-17-11
                                                                      • 5059

                                                                      #524
                                                                      Smolka/Borg seems like a tossup IMO, not sure why one will bet on such a fight.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Hugo de Naranja
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 04-14-16
                                                                        • 14140

                                                                        #525
                                                                        Originally posted by bjpenn85
                                                                        Smolka/Borg seems like a tossup IMO, not sure why one will bet on such a fight.
                                                                        Smolka is a much better finisher and has better cardio. He's a better scrambler and striker as well.
                                                                        Comment
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