Bjpenn85s 100 unit in 2016 if not im done with SBR-O thread

[bjpenn85]

Im curious to see how bad this serrano guy is. People like benoit. Benoit isnt top level fighter but maybe the price, style matchup and the overall discrepancy is large enough to make an exception..

[Rich Benjamins]

Im curious to see how bad this serrano guy is. People like benoit. Benoit isnt top level fighter but maybe the price, style matchup and the overall discrepancy is large enough to make an exception..

I think I'd lean towards Benoit because he's a more fully trained mixed martial artist, whereas Serrano is an Olympic wrestler and only the past few years has trained MMA. Serrano looked good in his fight against Bentley Syler, he was winning the whole fight, but it wasn't completely one-sided, it was competitive until Syler was literally knocked all the way out.

[CaptChaos145]

Line now at -165 for Lawler. The woodley KO/TKO prop (at 5Dimes) went from +405 to +268.

[Rich Benjamins]

9 months isnt that bad is it? Just watched perez vs lapilus. Perez isnt that bad. He has will power and cardio and ok striking. Maybe he leaves himself a bit open at times but i really cant see any edge here. Striking tech. should go the rivera, and im pretty sure Rivera wont getting taken down as riveras tdd historically is good while perez entries isnt anything special. Finish its rivera, a decision maybe perez. Overall my opinion on this fight hasnt changed after seing this fight, its still a pass for me. If you have a nose for bad bets, you should recognise one...this is one of those IMO

No, 9 months isn't that long. He's now a decent favorite, the line is going towards him and away from Rivera. He's been active on Facebook promoting https://www.facebook.com/ErikGoyitoPerez/. The lines have gotten more skewed towards the favorites, with the exception of the 2 main events. Krylov is now -225, glad I got a big bet on him when he was -150. I had also put a small wager on on KK at +210. I still need to bet on Scoggins, Graves and Masvidal. Although Masvidal did sound desperate in his interview on MMA Junkie, I don't like betting on desperate fighters. I'm still considering Benoit, but I think the best play there is a PASS. Unless someone can convince me otherwise.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Scoggins out of UFC 201

[Mxs1332]

Scoggins out of UFC 201

I like Ian as a person but Scoggins was money for this card. Shit

[bjpenn85]

Fakk. That sucks.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Im curious to see how bad this serrano guy is. People like benoit. Benoit isnt top level fighter but maybe the price, style matchup and the overall discrepancy is large enough to make an exception..

I think Benoit ML and or Benoit KO/TKO are worth small plays.

[bjpenn85]

I think Benoit ML and or Benoit KO/TKO are worth small plays.

Im not going to play benoit, although he is the more well rounded fighter in this matchup. Its hard to back him when all he does is loose. He also lost up until the KO of pettis. Not enough value IMO.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gotta disagree with you there but we'll see how things turn out.

Shudda listened to me bro

[bjpenn85]

Final bets for UFC 201: Lawler vs Woodley

14 units on M.Graves @ 1.52 to win 7.3 units
10 units on F. Ngannou, M.Brown @ 1.5 to win- 5 units
7.5 units on R.Lawler @ 1.48 to win - 3.5 units
2 units on J.Scoggins dec @ 2.07 to win - 2.15 units.
2 units on Ed Herman @ 2.60 to win - 3.2 units
1 unit on Ellenberger inside dist @ 5.44 to win back - 4.4 units
0.75 units on Woodley tko @ 5 to win back - 3.3 units

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Bad night. Most bet went wrong. Scoggins out, a draw, and two upsets. Fights can go different ways, this was the day when every fighters defensive flaw was exposed. Sometimes this scenario will happen all at once. On to the next, carefully.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Bad night. Most bet went wrong. Scoggins out, a draw, and two upsets. Fights can go different ways, this was the day when every fighters defensive flaw was exposed. Sometimes this scenario will happen all at once. On to the next, carefully.

You're one of the few people on this forum who owns their picks win or lose. I respect that a lot. You'll get 'em on the next one

[firekillex]

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Bad night. Most bet went wrong. Scoggins out, a draw, and two upsets. Fights can go different ways, this was the day when every fighters defensive flaw was exposed. Sometimes this scenario will happen all at once. On to the next, carefully.

Agreed, happens sometimes oh well gotta take it and move on . Be back at it in a few weeks then big 202 card coming up to get all that money back + more

[rsynweap84]

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Bad night. Most bet went wrong. Scoggins out, a draw, and two upsets. Fights can go different ways, this was the day when every fighters defensive flaw was exposed. Sometimes this scenario will happen all at once. On to the next, carefully.

Truthfully, tonight I didn't follow you, Woodley by ITD, KK decision, and Ellenburger TKO were my big bets. And they netted me over a thousand dollars profit tonight, but I was following your bets the entire night, and when I started adding the totals was like shit, he better freakin' stay on.

I said it before and I will say it again, I won't always agree with ya', but you know your shit. That said UFC is a sport where like every other sport ANYTHING can happen. Unlike every other sport, it is entirely dependent on 2 individuals.

Yea you had a bad night, you've always been willing to drop yer results win or lose, but if anyone needs to know why your one of the few who people follow, or have valued opinions on the fight allow me to illustrate this point more clearly.

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Winners don't win all the time. They can't, and neither can anyone else...but they do win most of the time. Let the numbers do the talkin'. Again, let me reiterate more clearly...

Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Case closed. Results are in...and even with the significant loss...guess what he's still up 3 grand...yeah bitches, you ain't gotta agree with the man, but ya' might at least hear what he has to say. It good medicine, and that goes for a few others too, Jibby, Hugo, firekrillex, Ty$, CaptChaos, and a whole group on here have valid info, in the end, evaluate and decide, the decision is always with the bettor. Win and lose it's what we do.

[firekillex]

Agreed rsynweap, take in all the knowledge / info you can then make a decision with your gut .. Sometimes it comes out a big winner and sometimes you lose that's mma and sports betting in general, can't win em all and you can't go chasing loses either , new card new slate . As long as you're profitable long term that's all that matters really , been on the side of shitty decisions, lucky decisions , unlucky kos, lucky kos it goes both ways just gotta keep at it , if you know mma and pick your spots you can easily hit dogs and favs at a 55%+ clip

[Ty$]

Truthfully, tonight I didn't follow you, Woodley by ITD, KK decision, and Ellenburger TKO were my big bets. And they netted me over a thousand dollars profit tonight, but I was following your bets the entire night, and when I started adding the totals was like shit, he better freakin' stay on.

I said it before and I will say it again, I won't always agree with ya', but you know your shit. That said UFC is a sport where like every other sport ANYTHING can happen. Unlike every other sport, it is entirely dependent on 2 individuals.

Yea you had a bad night, you've always been willing to drop yer results win or lose, but if anyone needs to know why your one of the few who people follow, or have valued opinions on the fight allow me to illustrate this point more clearly.



Winners don't win all the time. They can't, and neither can anyone else...but they do win most of the time. Let the numbers do the talkin'. Again, let me reiterate more clearly...



Case closed. Results are in...and even with the significant loss...guess what he's still up 3 grand...yeah bitches, you ain't gotta agree with the man, but ya' might at least hear what he has to say. It good medicine, and that goes for a few others too, Jibby, Hugo, firekrillex, Ty$, CaptChaos, and a whole group on here have valid info, in the end, evaluate and decide, the decision is always with the bettor. Win and lose it's what we do.

Word congrats on those hits ... Crazy awesome

[Ty$]

You're one of the few people on this forum who owns their picks win or lose. I respect that a lot. You'll get 'em on the next one

I'll tell you straight up last card I killed was Garbrandt/Almeida. I'm still up from that one card. But I've either broken even or lost half of what I played those nights.

[bjpenn85]

You're one of the few people on this forum who owns their picks win or lose. I respect that a lot. You'll get 'em on the next one

Thanks for the support. This loss stings a bit. I usually need 1-2 event to win back these losses. Got cocky after a longer winning streak.

[bjpenn85]

Agreed, happens sometimes oh well gotta take it and move on . Be back at it in a few weeks then big 202 card coming up to get all that money back + more

Thanks for the support, appreciate it. Human after all...

[bjpenn85]

Truthfully, tonight I didn't follow you, Woodley by ITD, KK decision, and Ellenburger TKO were my big bets. And they netted me over a thousand dollars profit tonight, but I was following your bets the entire night, and when I started adding the totals was like shit, he better freakin' stay on.

I said it before and I will say it again, I won't always agree with ya', but you know your shit. That said UFC is a sport where like every other sport ANYTHING can happen. Unlike every other sport, it is entirely dependent on 2 individuals.

Yea you had a bad night, you've always been willing to drop yer results win or lose, but if anyone needs to know why your one of the few who people follow, or have valued opinions on the fight allow me to illustrate this point more clearly.



Winners don't win all the time. They can't, and neither can anyone else...but they do win most of the time. Let the numbers do the talkin'. Again, let me reiterate more clearly...



Case closed. Results are in...and even with the significant loss...guess what he's still up 3 grand...yeah bitches, you ain't gotta agree with the man, but ya' might at least hear what he has to say. It good medicine, and that goes for a few others too, Jibby, Hugo, firekrillex, Ty$, CaptChaos, and a whole group on here have valid info, in the end, evaluate and decide, the decision is always with the bettor. Win and lose it's what we do.

Thats awesome. Congrats my fried. I was wrong about everything tonight. I thought Karolinas technique was really bad. I thought it was really weird to see a fighter figure out the opponent, but than two rounds after that playing right into her strength. At the same time, we saw what type of style who will give rose problems last time out, and i should have played KK for at least 2 unit all factors considered. Especially the godly like gast tank which very few fighters can deal with in the long run. In a 5 round fight, i actually think joanna may run into some problems.

Starting off with Herman. When i bet him i forgot a whole lot of things. Usually when going for underdogs my thought are like this. The underdog doesnt necessarily need to be better in every area on paper, good wins against fighters on the same level, in this instance boetsch and rafael Natal confirms that both fighter may be on the same level and the criteria for betting an underdog is fulfilled. But, the crazy line movement proved that i was wrong and not only that, i also forgot to look at both fighters physical attributes. No way in hell ed herman is winning over a fighter who are so much faster, younger, hungrier, basically more athletic than him. He looked so sluggish and bad also against boetsch.Again, bad mistake.

Ellenberger and his hurt dog is a dangerous dog -syndrome came back to bite me in the ass + matt browns = bad defence. Hard to back ellenberger after going 1-5 last six fights. I hedged, but the hedge could have been larger. I dont know if siding with fighters on the way out is the correct side, long term. It sure didnt feel like the logical pick before the fight. Kings MMA made ellenberger believe in himself, and throw a kick to the body maybe for the first time? Good game plan, sucks for me.

Woodleys power represented a huge risk, i should have either had a larger hedge or just bought out of the bet. The line movement already highlighted the risk for me. But , because of linemovement i would have lost on either side, not a lot, but i would have. That led to the temptation to ride lawler out and hope he would win. Man he was tentative and afraid for that power.

Cant win on every event. I still have bets won from last event who will win back my 11 units. Within the month im back, less arrogant, but still as rich.

[Rich Benjamins]

You'll bounce back BJ. You've taught myself and others a lot on here. I agree with what you said earlier, there's no reason to have any losses, unless it's some kind of a rare fluke. Usually, the fights go down how they're supposed to. I won money overall, but I bet big on Brown which was my big loss of the night. If you look at his wins, he really hasn't beaten anyone that good, with the exception of Tim Means. And Ellenberger has had the innate fighters ability for awhile, and capable of strong punches. Wasn't a good bet, I could've figured that out.

[firekillex]

You'll bounce back BJ. You've taught myself and others a lot on here. I agree with what you said earlier, there's no reason to have any losses, unless it's some kind of a rare fluke. Usually, the fights go down how they're supposed to. I won money overall, but I bet big on Brown which was my big loss of the night. If you look at his wins, he really hasn't beaten anyone that good, with the exception of Tim Means. And Ellenberger has had the innate fighters ability for awhile, and capable of strong punches. Wasn't a good bet, I could've figured that out.

Its still an mma fight and ellenberger has power everybody knew that , not many people can win a fight 10/10 times. If they fought 10 times I'd bet brown starches him 7 or 8 outta 10 times but ellenberger came out strong and tagged him then tagged him again with a beautiful body kick , it happens. Brown is definitely still more talented at this point of there careers but he got caught and couldn't completely recover , just by looking records you'd think brown sucks but he's definitely top 10 at 170 where ellenbergers days of top 10 are Basicslly gone , if he wins his next fight to maybe he's ressurecting his career but I highly doubt it , he'll a assuming get a top 10 opponent next put him against larkin or magny that'll gang where he's at. Usually older guys in lights divisions fall off quick oppose to the heavier weights where everyone in the top 10 is 30+ years old since power is the last to go and reflexes are the first

[CaptChaos145]

Event result: -11.8 units
Results since 7th. may 2016: + 30.15 units

Bad night. Most bet went wrong. Scoggins out, a draw, and two upsets. Fights can go different ways, this was the day when every fighters defensive flaw was exposed. Sometimes this scenario will happen all at once. On to the next, carefully.

I think those figures look worse than what they are. You were 1 judges point away (Graves) from having a very good night.

Tough one.

I like this next card a lot.

[firekillex]

I think those figures look worse than what they are. You were 1 judges point away (Graves) from having a very good night.

Tough one.

I like this next card a lot.

Who ya liking next week pal?
i think Bermudez and leites have some value

[CaptChaos145]

Who ya liking next week pal?
i think Bermudez and leites have some value

Love Ponzinbibio.

I think this card will be prop bet heaven. I'll be looking to win money on the Leites/Camozzi fight but only on prop bets. Odds should be good for the Ko/tko props for both fighters since neither has been stopped by strikes in a combined 65 fights (crazy stat.)

I want to manipulate the following: ko/tko props for both guys along with Leites by sub and fight Goes the distance. We shall see if there is a hole in the lines. Lastly hedge with a draw bet. $10 on a draw should pay at least $1,500.

[firekillex]

Love Ponzinbibio.

I think this card will be prop bet heaven. I'll be looking to win money on the Leites/Camozzi fight but only on prop bets. Odds should be good for the Ko/tko props for both fighters since neither has been stopped by strikes in a combined 65 fights (crazy stat.)

I want to manipulate the following: ko/tko props for both guys along with Leites by sub and fight Goes the distance. We shall see if there is a hole in the lines. Lastly hedge with a draw bet. $10 on a draw should pay at least $1,500.

I honestly see leites cruising to a unanimous decision here , camozzi is tough and hard to finish
Bermudez should definitely finish though , we'll have to see the prop bets for sure see where the values at

[KushMoney]

You'll get em next time!


I should have taken your advice and FADED Rivera. He looked like crap!


Took him at +140 got greedy and bet last minute. Also, Woodley at last minute at +110 (sad odds)


Line Movement was dead-on last night. Just a note.

[bjpenn85]

I think those figures look worse than what they are. You were 1 judges point away (Graves) from having a very good night.

Tough one.

I like this next card a lot.

Obviously its a bit of unluck in those numbers but it its a bit of poor picking the correct winner as well. Especially betting on lawler. Brown is borderline, its hard to foresee ellenbergers resurgence after 5 out of 6 losses. You cant really believe fighters when they say they had their best camp cause they always say. The power of ellenberger mixed with browns tendency to get hurt in almost every fight is a red flag. To have 10 units on that, in hindsight, its not good decision. It was a decision taken after winning a lot of money. You get a little careless after a good period.

[rsynweap84]

Obviously its a bit of unluck in those numbers but it its a bit of poor picking the correct winner as well. Especially betting on lawler. Brown is borderline, its hard to foresee ellenbergers resurgence after 5 out of 6 losses. You cant really believe fighters when they say they had their best camp cause they always say. The power of ellenberger mixed with browns tendency to get hurt in almost every fight is a red flag. To have 10 units on that, in hindsight, its not good decision. It was a decision taken after winning a lot of money. You get a little careless after a good period.

Ya might have had some bad luck but them judges were smokin' reefer, how the blue f*ck they call Graves fight a draw after he wins two out of the three rounds, is beyond me. I could understand it if Velickovic had threatened him and come close to finishing him...but that wasn't the case.

I know they say never leave it to the judges, but goddamn, does the UFC purposefully find the most retarded judges possible or what?

[firekillex]

Ya might have had some bad luck but them judges were smokin' reefer, how the blue f*ck they call Graves fight a draw after he wins two out of the three rounds, is beyond me. I could understand it if Velickovic had threatened him and come close to finishing him...but that wasn't the case.

I know they say never leave it to the judges, but goddamn, does the UFC purposefully find the most retarded judges possible or what?

the commission of the certain state or country assigns the judges , Dana white hates Basically and judges and refs , if they had they're pick I'm betting mostly all would be fired ... But that's the way it is, judges are old people who give a shit about mma and hardly watch the fight sometimes, it'll hopefully get better over time but it sucks that a guys career/ momentum can be ruined by incompetent judging

[Ty$]

Hey weap84!!! Jus curious how many combos of parlays you had on those last 3 fights??? I hit the same shit the Garbrant card. I'm looking at 202s 3 main plays to do the same.

[bjpenn85]

Adding:

2 units on Chris Camozzi @ 2.80 to win - 3.6 units

[rsynweap84]

Hey weap84!!! Jus curious how many combos of parlays you had on those last 3 fights??? I hit the same shit the Garbrant card. I'm looking at 202s 3 main plays to do the same.

Total parlay bets for the entire card was 37 parlays.

Those strictly pertaining to the last 3 fights was 12 parlays.

I had a few covering for Rose by decision, and submission, and the same with Lawler. Might a been kinda crazy to not cover for M. Brown but I was confident this would stay on the feet...confident aka "hoping like hell"...

Total cost of all the parlays was $159.00

$12.00 worth of that won the $1027.12 so definitely nice chunk o bettin' money for 202.

[Ty$]

Total parlay bets for the entire card was 37 parlays.

Those strictly pertaining to the last 3 fights was 12 parlays.

I had a few covering for Rose by decision, and submission, and the same with Lawler. Might a been kinda crazy to not cover for M. Brown but I was confident this would stay on the feet...confident aka "hoping like hell"...

Total cost of all the parlays was $159.00

$12.00 worth of that won the $1027.12 so definitely nice chunk o bettin' money for 202.

Nice let's kick around ideas for ... Nate-- Rumble---Cowboy... I think we could nail those 3 w w prop parlay.

[Thrilla]

JIBBBY 1

bjpenn85 0