JoshKnows Ufc fn 83: Feb 21st

[JoshKnows46]

Donald Cerrone -200/-245/-255/-270 Risking $3000

Parlay:
Donald Cerrone -270/-265
Derek Brunson -350/-335
Risking $3000

Gonna also have 300 on cerrone itd, 100 on cerrone sub, and 100 on cerrone finish in round 2.

[CaptChaos145]

Donald Cerrone -200/-245/-255/-270 Risking $3000

Parlay:
Donald Cerrone -270/-265
Derek Brunson -350/-335
Risking $3000

Gonna also have 300 on cerrone itd, 100 on cerrone sub, and 100 on cerrone finish in round 2.

Josh what is the parlay odds?

[JoshKnows46]

Josh what is the parlay odds?

-127 and -132

[AliMMA]

Hey Josh, any more leans on the lower tier fights?

[JoshKnows46]

Hey Josh, any more leans on the lower tier fights?

Waiting for the undercard fights to come out, this is all I'm betting on the maincard.

[CaptChaos145]

I'm absolutely loving Sarafian over Bamgbose. Sarafian is much more polished and has been battle tested... split losses to Dolloway and Cezar Ferreira. The only way Bamgbose wins is if he lands a big bomb. Bamgbose has not been out of the 1st round as a pro. His last loss was to Uriah Hall (hard to determine anything cause Hall is such a dynamic striker.) His 5 wins before the UFC were to local regional guys with a combined record of 9-12. At -200 for Sarafian is a steal.

[JoshKnows46]

Added:
Parlay
Cerrone -280
Gabarant -330
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -280
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +150/+130
Risking $1000

Parlay
Cerrone -270
Mcgregor inside the distance -116
Risking $500

Murphy -330 Risking $1000

Cerrone inside the distance -145/-160 risking $500

[JAKEPEAVY21]

went pretty heavy on the first parlay

hopefully the American Cowboy takes the main event

[CaptChaos145]

Added:
Parlay
Cerrone -280
Gabarant -330
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -280
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +150/+130
Risking $1000

Parlay
Cerrone -270
Mcgregor inside the distance -116
Risking $500

Murphy -330 Risking $1000

Cerrone inside the distance -145/-160 risking $500

What do you like about Guimares or don't like about Anthony Smith?

[JoshKnows46]

What do you like about Guimares or don't like about Anthony Smith?

For one of the same reasons i like murphy and garbarant, built in value, 4 days notice they have to cut weight and then rehydrate without a iv. Guimaraes has never been stopped by ko or sub, he should be able to take smith into deep waters, which smith hasn't experience in his last 5 fights and drown him. Have Guimares favored by 180

[JoshKnows46]

Cerrone wins by sub +250
Cerrone wins in round 2 +450
Risking 100 each

[TPowell]

Thinking about playing Guimares and Garbrandt together for a few units. Feel like I have enough on Cowboy already with 10 units risked on him straight and 10 more in the parlay with Brunson plus the ITD units

[TPowell]

I will say Guimares has awful footwork plus strike defense and tends to gas in fights from what I've heard. He's a solid striker in the clinch though and has some decent power. Will have to hear more about the new Smith before getting down on this

[TPowell]

Any opinion on the Garcia/Strickland fight going the distance? Sitting at even money right now

[bjpenn85]

Any opinion on the Garcia/Strickland fight going the distance? Sitting at even money right now

I thought about this as well, dont think anyone of these fighters can finish the other.

[JoshKnows46]

Any opinion on the Garcia/Strickland fight going the distance? Sitting at even money right now

I like it, hadn't thought about it, till you mentioned it....considering how much to bet on it, thanks man.

[JoshKnows46]

Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 +1325 $80 to win $1060
Lauren Murphy to win in round 2 +725 $30 to win $217.50

(kelly has bad cardio, shes on 4 days notice, will have to make weight and then rehydrate in a 4 days span without the use of a iv, so i like Murphy to push her against the cage, and wear her out in the 1st round, then ko her late 2nd, early 3rd round, i decided to go all in with the 3rd round, and just use the 2nd round as a means to profit $127.50, but the 3rd round finish is what i'm shooting for.)

[JoshKnows46]

Any opinion on the Garcia/Strickland fight going the distance? Sitting at even money right now

I'm waiting for the weigh ins before I commit to a wager on this, also a lean on Strickland.

[JoshKnows46]

Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300
Strickland/Garcia over 2.5 -160 $320

[TPowell]

Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300
Strickland/Garcia over 2.5 -160 $320

I thought about playing Bamgbose as well. I'm putting a half unit on TKO/KO at +245 and another half unit on winning in the 1st round at +400

[GoodSun]

may the best cowboy win, looking forward to some good fights, bellator sure raised the bar lol.best of luck

[TPowell]

may the best cowboy win, looking forward to some good fights, bellator sure raised the bar lol.best of luck

you are correct, they really put the bar in bar fights last night LMAO

[JoshKnows46]

Tailing tpow, 1 unit hedge on alex Olivera 1st round to cover 11 units of the 28 I have invested in cerrone. Cerrone sometimes has trouble getting his range in the 1st round and Olivera has power and reach, because of cerrones excellent chin it's a long shot as the odds suggest, but maybe dropped and jumps on a sub, but it's literally Olivera only chance in the fight, it co insides with my thoughts for betting cerrone 2nd round finish, as once cerrone gets his distance, the fight will be over soon after. So I believe it's worth a unit to hedge here just because of how much we have invested in the play.

[JIBBBY]

Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300

I'm with ya on these 2 props.. I took both ITD props instead just to play it a little more safe. The odds only dropped very slightly between the KO props and the ITD props so I figured why get greedy..

Good eye Josh both should hit...

[JoshKnows46]

I'm with ya on these 2 props.. I took both ITD props instead just to play it a little more safe. The odds only dropped very slightly between the KO props and the ITD props so I figured why get greedy..

Good eye Josh both should hit...

Thanks, gl tomorrow bud.. I didn't notice how close the itd props were, wish I would have, most likely ko for both, however i do perfer go itd if its close. What you got them for itd?

[JoshKnows46]

I thought about playing Bamgbose as well. I'm putting a half unit on TKO/KO at +245 and another half unit on winning in the 1st round at +400

He does have a bunch of 1st round finishes, I'll be rooting for it.

[JIBBBY]

Thanks, gl tomorrow bud.. I didn't notice how close the itd props were, wish I would have, most likely ko for both, however i do perfer go itd if its close. What you got them for itd?

$100.00

$230.00

Pending

2/21/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1705 Bamgbose wins inside distance +230* <small>vs</small> Not Bamgbose inside distance

$100.00

$105.00

Pending

2/21/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Garbrandt wins inside distance +105* <small>vs</small> Not Garbrandt inside distance

[JoshKnows46]

$100.00

$230.00

Pending

2/21/16 8:00pm MMA Props Fighting 1705 Bamgbose wins inside distance +230* <small>vs</small> Not Bamgbose inside distance

$100.00

$105.00

Pending

2/21/16 10:30pm MMA Props Fighting 1209 Garbrandt wins inside distance +105* <small>vs</small> Not Garbrandt inside distance

Nice..dam very close lol I'll be sick if one jumps on a sub, gotta pay more attention when placing my bets

[TPowell]

Bamgbose by sub is literally +2300

[TPowell]

Now I'm looking at lottery tickets lol. Nathan Coy at +1500 to win by sub is interesting. He's a solid top control wrestler but his BJJ is pretty shitty.....

[JoshKnows46]

Bamgbose by sub is literally +2300

I know both are very unlikely, but it's only 10 bucks diffrence.

[JoshKnows46]

Now I'm looking at lottery tickets lol. Nathan Coy at +1500 to win by sub is interesting. He's a solid top control wrestler but his BJJ is pretty shitty.....

Might be worth a fraction of a unit, some leans that I didn't play that might be worth a fraction of a unit if you just want sum action, are Campbell dec, kawajiri dec, Krause sub, camozzi dec.

[TPowell]

I can't play the Camozzi fight at all. I was leaning Campbell early in the week but backed out when the price went down. I think you might as well play Kawajiri straight. I can't see the difference being more than 15-20 cents

[TPowell]

Any opinion on the first fight at HW with Anthony Hamilton? A guy I really like said Hamilton may be the worst HW on the roster and wasn't sure how the heck the UFC found a guy he could beat (he won a fight not long ago)

[JoshKnows46]

Any opinion on the first fight at HW with Anthony Hamilton? A guy I really like said Hamilton may be the worst HW on the roster and wasn't sure how the heck the UFC found a guy he could beat (he won a fight not long ago)

They are both low level, wsof trashy fighters, Hamilton probable is more trashy, but not worth your money to make a play, heavyweights already carry increased risk.