JoshKnows Ufc fn 83: Feb 21st

[JoshKnows46]

Now I'm looking at lottery tickets lol. Nathan Coy at +1500 to win by sub is interesting. He's a solid top control wrestler but his BJJ is pretty shitty.....

I found a long shot that might be worth it.

Strickland finishes in round 3 +1350 Risking $50 (strickland has the better stand-up and i believe he can stop garcias wrestling for the most part, but the reason i ended up not betting him, is becuase he's hesistant to let his hands go, which could cost him a dec by way of garcia being more aggressive, garcia has cardio issues however, and may be gassed out from failed takedown attempts late in the fight, which will allow strickland to let his hands fly, and maybe strikland may need the finish by that time, in what should be a close fight.)

[JoshKnows46]

Full Card:

Donald Cerrone -200/-245/-255/-270 Risking $3000

Parlay:
Donald Cerrone -270/-265
Derek Brunson -350/-335
Risking $3000

Parlay
Cerrone -280
Gabarant -330
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -280
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +150/+130
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -270
Mcgregor inside the distance -116
Risking $500

Murphy -330 Risking $1000

Cerrone inside the distance -145/-160 risking $500

Cerrone wins by sub +250 $100 to win $250
Cerrone wins in round 2 +450 $100 to win $450

Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 +1325 $80 to win $1060
Lauren Murphy to win in round 2 +725 $30 to win $217.50
Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600 to win $630
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300 to win $720
Strickland/Garcia over 2.5 -160 $320 to win $200
Strickland finishes in round 3 +1350 $50 to $675

[GoodSun]

I found a long shot that might be worth it.

Strickland finishes in round 3 +1350 Risking $50 (strickland has the better stand-up and i believe he can stop garcias wrestling for the most part, but the reason i ended up not betting him, is becuase he's hesistant to let his hands go, which could cost him a dec by way of garcia being more aggressive, garcia has cardio issues however, and may be gassed out from failed takedown attempts late in the fight, which will allow strickland to let his hands fly, and maybe strikland may need the finish by that time, in what should be a close fight.)

this explains your over 2.5rds pick, well thoughtout picks. i jumped on the goes 3rds days ago.

[AliMMA]

I have Krause, Garbrant, Cerrone parlay $20 to get $122 good play?

[JoshKnows46]

I have Krause, Garbrant, Cerrone parlay $20 to get $122 good play?

we not gonna know if its a good play till after they fight lol, but krause isn't a fighter i'd recommend betting on in this perticular match-up, though neither is his opp, i see paths to victory for both guys, so krause is the only guy in your parlay you have to worry about...Cerrone and Garbarandt are virtually locks, no real worries with either, both should win very easily. i'll be rooting for Krause, hope you cash it.

[Sanity Check]

Its been impressive seeing you constantly beat the odds.

It makes me laugh how everytime I see your picks I think to myself "is this guy, crazy"?

Then things go your way more often than not. Its bizarre. lol

[AliMMA]

we not gonna know if its a good play till after they fight lol, but krause isn't a fighter i'd recommend betting on in this perticular match-up, though neither is his opp, i see paths to victory for both guys, so krause is the only guy in your parlay you have to worry about...Cerrone and Garbarandt are virtually locks, no real worries with either, both should win very easily. i'll be rooting for Krause, hope you cash it.

Thanks Josh, yes I am hoping for Krause to get a sub or lay and pray to victory!

[bjpenn85]

Full Card:

Donald Cerrone -200/-245/-255/-270 Risking $3000

Parlay:
Donald Cerrone -270/-265
Derek Brunson -350/-335
Risking $3000

Parlay
Cerrone -280
Gabarant -330
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -280
Leonardo Augusto Guimaraes +150/+130
Risking $1000

Parlay:
Cerrone -270
Mcgregor inside the distance -116
Risking $500

Murphy -330 Risking $1000

Cerrone inside the distance -145/-160 risking $500

Cerrone wins by sub +250 $100 to win $250
Cerrone wins in round 2 +450 $100 to win $450

Lauren Murphy wins in round 3 +1325 $80 to win $1060
Lauren Murphy to win in round 2 +725 $30 to win $217.50
Garbarandt wins by tko/ko +105 $600 to win $630
Bamgbose wins by tko/ko +240 $300 to win $720
Strickland/Garcia over 2.5 -160 $320 to win $200
Strickland finishes in round 3 +1350 $50 to $675

Great plays, im on nearly all of them.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

I have Krause, Garbrant, Cerrone parlay $20 to get $122 good play?

please tell me how -150, -300 and -350 parlayed pays +600???

[jordanft19]

On a scale of 1-10 how confident are you with Brunson winning?

we not gonna know if its a good play till after they fight lol, but krause isn't a fighter i'd recommend betting on in this perticular match-up, though neither is his opp, i see paths to victory for both guys, so krause is the only guy in your parlay you have to worry about...Cerrone and Garbarandt are virtually locks, no real worries with either, both should win very easily. i'll be rooting for Krause, hope you cash it.

[AliMMA]

please tell me how -150, -300 and -350 parlayed pays +600???

Enhanced odds with Coral, they are a UK betting shop! You can check don't worry I'm not lieing!!

[JoshKnows46]

On a scale of 1-10 how confident are you with Brunson winning?

Anytime I bet odds over 300, my confidents in the play is a 10, have him favored by -700. I rank them as biggest mismatches in order cerrone, garbardt, brunson.all 10s.

[JoshKnows46]

Roan has one path to victory, it's sub, it's at +900 if your worried and want to hedge.

[JIBBBY]

^^I also like Brunson but I don't like playing him straight or in a parlay at -430 (current odds).

I also don't think he'll get caught in a sub as he's pretty well rounded with solid wrestling.... I think he's very confident in his striking right now and will avoid the ground all together.. http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Derek-Brunson-68494

He's scored KO wins in his last 2 fights against stand up fighters... I think he goes after the 37 year old Roan standing and gets the KO myself or pounds him out on the ground...

1133 Brunson wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_45" size="4"> +145

The safer prop as always is ITD..

1109 Brunson wins inside distance

<input id="radiox" value="M1_33" name="radiox" type="radio">+103

[CaptChaos145]

Now I'm looking at lottery tickets lol. Nathan Coy at +1500 to win by sub is interesting. He's a solid top control wrestler but his BJJ is pretty shitty.....

Webb is a very good submission fighter. It would be shocking if Coy subs Webb. I know Webb well. Don't waste your money!

[shabang]

Its been impressive seeing you constantly beat the odds.

It makes me laugh how everytime I see your picks I think to myself "is this guy, crazy"?

Then things go your way more often than not. Its bizarre. lol

I thought the same, like what the fuk..this idiot thinkgs that'll actually hit..and then it does..and I"m even more like FUK FUK should've tailed.. I'm learning to keep an open mind with his picks and possibly tail.

[JIBBBY]

I thought the same, like what the fuk..this idiot thinkgs that'll actually hit..and then it does..and I"m even more like FUK FUK should've tailed.. I'm learning to keep an open mind with his picks and possibly tail.

I gotta agree, I actually get nervous a bit when I make a play against him these days.. Never doubted my picks in the past against anyone ever.... Gotta give the hot shot credit.. He can pick em.. He's also tightening up his gambling game I see, looking for better odds with props now and what not..

Kuddo's to Josh.... If he hits Cowboy Cerrone I'm gonna be pissed off though!!!

[shabang]

got cerrone, garb, and brunson in a parlay.

any good parlays for the undercard josh? what about one of the bitch fights starting round 2 + stickland over 2 1/2?

[CaptChaos145]

sorry please ignore

[CaptChaos145]

Reneau -180
250 to win 138

Sarafian -200
300 to win 150

Webb -230
150 to win 65

Bermudez -325
100 to win 30

Webb/Coy (under 2 1/2) +130
200 to win 260

Anthony Smith -140
150 to win 107

garcia/Strickland over 2 1/2 -150
60 to win 40

Sarafian -160
200 to win 125

[JoshKnows46]

Thanks for the kind words everyone.

[JoshKnows46]

got cerrone, garb, and brunson in a parlay.

any good parlays for the undercard josh? what about one of the bitch fights starting round 2 + stickland over 2 1/2?

Post 37 has my full card, you can parlay murphy and Guimaraes together, those are my top 2 plays on the undercard, 3.3 units on both. Have 300 on strikeland over 2.5, and 50 on strikeland finishing in the 3rd round.

[rabun]

Why do you like Leleco?? And how do you see this fight going??

[JoshKnows46]

I see alot of guys on anthony smith, Guimares is very durable and smith is wild and doesnt have any striking defense, Guimares will take anything he has and walk through it till he KO's smith, probable late 2nd. Longer the fight goes more it favors guim as smith is on 4 days notice and is use to stopping guys early, cardio advantage, and durabilty will prove the victory, as both guys fight wild, and smith will eventually fall, have guim as the clear favorite here.

[rabun]

Thanks

[bjpenn85]

Hit lauren murhpy round 3, inpsired by your bet. Thanks man! easy 300 dollar start

[JoshKnows46]

Hit lauren murhpy round 3, inpsired by your bet. Thanks man! easy 300 dollar start

Welcome brother, love hearing it.. rooting for bermudez for you, let's cash big tonight.

[JoshKnows46]

I added 200 on cody garbarandt 1st round finish at +200 and 100 on 2nd round finish @ +375

[latarianmilton]

Tailing you man, good luck.

[JoshKnows46]

Can't believe a judge CAN score the 1st round for smith, glad i stayed away from that one would have been sick, I'm gonna clean up with live betting with these terrible judges. I'll probable bet coy at plus odds after the 2nd. Take advantage of these horrible judges.

[TPowell]

Coy at -175

[JoshKnows46]

Dammit coy big fav live, nothing to bet.

[JoshKnows46]

I had it at 240 tpow

[JoshKnows46]

Coy at -175

I shoulda bet him after the 1st round, missed out on this one.

[TPowell]

Going to go with your guy against Smith in this next fight for a unit or 2. Still steamed over the reneau fight. No way she lost the 1st and the 2nd was pretty clear too