UFC 189: Aldo vs. McGregor (July 11, 2015)

[JoshKnows46]

like I said, no way am I saying fix but this all sets up way too easy for Conor to roll tomorrow night, just my 2 cents

Conor will roll because he is a much more skilled fighter than Chad, and he has the tools to keep the fight standing for extended periods of time, and chads on 3 weeks notice In a 5 round fight, and is forced to try to be one dimensional because he knows Conor is worlds better him on the feet, he'llbe unconscious before the 4th round because of lack of skill, not a fix.

[Giants007]

lol for the 3rd time im not saying fix. Just fishy Aldo/McGregor gets hyped as the biggest fight ever, Aldo backs out with injury weeks before fight (reports say he had bruised ribs from a previous injury and NO broken ribs) Mendes comes in on very short notice (even as the #1 contender a guy Dana knows McGregor will pound) Plans are already in place for Aldo/McGregor in vegas with even more hype and more money spent on promotion. Just seems strange to me, kinda like this entire scenario was all planned out

[JoshKnows46]

Love the under in this fight.. Agreed 100%.. Swick either gets finished or finishes early on....

Pending7/11/15 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1701 Mike Swick/Alex Garcia Under 1½ -110*

Disagree here, I'd love to see swick get the Ko, as a fan of his. That won't happen though, he will merely survive the 1.5 rounds, I like the over here and I really like the value of Garcia by decision at +365

[JoshKnows46]

lol for the 3rd time im not saying fix. Just fishy Aldo/McGregor gets hyped as the biggest fight ever, Aldo backs out with injury weeks before fight (reports say he had bruised ribs from a previous injury and NO broken ribs) Mendes comes in on very short notice (even as the #1 contender a guy Dana knows McGregor will pound) Plans are already in place for Aldo/McGregor in vegas with even more hype and more money spent on promotion. Just seems strange to me, kinda like this entire scenario was all planned out

Thats just aldo for you, he doesn't fight outside of Brazil and he doesn't fight less then 100%, it's a pattern with him.

[Unwritten Law]

Swick won't get out of the 1st against Garcia. This will probably be the fastest KO of the night. The other fastest fight will be Mendes when he chokes out McGregor in under a minute.

[JoshKnows46]

Swick won't get out of the 1st against Garcia. This will probably be the fastest KO of the night. The other fastest fight will be Mendes when he chokes out McGregor in under a minute.

Your so clueless on both these fights, it's quite sad.

chad has 2 subs in his career, over 5 and 7 years ago, he doesn't even try to improve his position on the ground, his grappling is basic, and you're grasping at straws to justify your idiotic bet on mendes. Stop making a fool of yourself... Chad better have a plan b... I say this with love, my hope isn't that you lose you're money, my hope is simply that you come to your senses.

[fitguy67]

I have Brown getting the sub.

Means has the weapons to take advantage of Brown's defense but he isn't used to fighting higher profile guys in pressure spots like this. Add this to the obvious pressuring style that Brown brings and to me it seems likely that Means will make the most glaring mistake. I've been more impressed with his potential than his performances which doesn't bode well in this situation. Still, both guys have the ability to finish here in a variety of ways. Great fight.

McGregor/Mendes is too fishy for me to bet. I like McGregor Rd 1 KO but if you asked me a week ago I would've taken Chad all day. Robbie seems like the right play in the WW fight but Rory has too many variables in my eyes for me to accurately read this.

I like Stephens but am taking the under rather than straight play. I think it's more likely for Bermudez to finish Stephens than for Stephens to decision Bermudez. If he gets off, Bermudez goes down. Stephens is getting up there in fights and the Yves KO, although it proved less foreshadowing than I originally thought, is in the back of my mind when breaking down Lil' Heathen.

Cathal Pendred and John Howard will be scored a draw. If I had access to this prop I would likely throw a flier.

Garcia should knock Swick out rather quickly but wouldn't touch those odds. The under 1.5 for a tiny play instead. Swick tends to be a finisher when he does show up healthy and fight ready. Also a chance Garcia gasses after 1 and Swick lands a combo or gets a sub.

Biggest play for me is Gunnar. I'm not one who's been on his hypetrain before and am not now, but I do believe that he has a big advantage here. Although his striking is highly overrated, in my opinion, Gunnar shows a solid level of consistency and mental stability to go along with the skill set needed to take advantage of Thatch's weaknesses, his grappling and his mentality. Also, I believe that the previous opponents (Howard/Hathaway) styles and the adjustments needed heading into this match favor Gunnar mentally and technically as well. And, last, and yes I am aware that this is pure speculation, but I believe that Gunnar's loss to Rick Story will have less impact on his confidence than the Benson Henderson loss will for Thatch even though Bendo is obviously the better and more accomplished fighter.

Don't have a good read on Almeida yet but making a small play on Pickett out of general principle.

welcome to the MMA-board...helluva contrib!

[Unwritten Law]

McGregor patiently waiting to press the "I submit" trigger.

[Killer_Demo]

2 bets for me this whole card

Conor -150
Conor vs mendes over 2 1/2 rounds -110

[fitguy67]

McGregor patiently waiting to press the "I submit" trigger.

there's a very good chance that McG is a "fair weather" fighter with negligible tolerance for joint pain...

Faber observed this very well in saying something to the effect that "what would make you tap to a little pain in the knee joint...can't be trained out of you"...

a quick sherdog of the guy's record show's that been completely dominant in all of his 17 wins (16 well ITD, 1 UD)...on the other hand, he's been Matt-Mitrione quick (in 30s and 38s) on both occasions when got into trouble...as they say at SBG, "fookin' 'ell ?!!"

before all you McNutHuggers bring up Holloway here...he got his ass injured, sure enough, and overcame that...but at no time did Max have him in any danger of losing the fight...if Hollaway had got him wrapped up in anything remotely painful it might have signalled the return of Connie McTapTap...all the "bullet-proof-self-belief" marketing-drivel to the contrary
________

"what would make you tap to a bit of knee pain...can't be trained out of you"

______________

just livening things up in here...

McNutHuggers to the support of their god in 3...2...1...

[JIBBBY]

Disagree here, I'd love to see swick get the Ko, as a fan of his. That won't happen though, he will merely survive the 1.5 rounds, I like the over here and I really like the value of Garcia by decision at +365

Swicks been out too long and this fight isn't getting out of the 1st round like unwritten said.... Something will give early.. Garcia has been dropped before, Mike Swick also has been lit up before and knocked out cold.. Both typically like to strike and trade early on.. Swick at age 36 isn't getting any younger or faster so I'm guessing he goes to sleep first.....

By the numbers...

Mike Swick has 8 first round finishes...http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Mike-Swick-5199

Alex Garcia has 9 first round finishes in 14 pro fights..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Alex-Garcia-54124

[mirinquads]

easy with parroting the McGregorisms there pal: your guy's like a beaver floating down the canal on his back, with a hard-on shouting to all who'll listen "raise the bridge, raise the bridge"...

not a single one of your guy's scalps (or scalps of any of those scalps) would remotely worry Chad/Frankie on the one hand or Aldo on the other...

great to promote yourself in your own mind and to the world...but ridiculing in any way people like Mendes who've accomplished so much more than you have to date is not confidence...it's just self-obsessed doltism..."pride goeth before the fall" and all that...

"pride" is best reserved for what you've done...not the bullshit new-age oprah-channel way for what we TINK we're gonna do
____________
as for the character of the guy's jock you're riding...it's most revealing that in today's big media do, the only question McSelfObsessed was unable to wax eloquent on was the very last one...about what good he's done/doing to anyone in the world outside of fighting...all of a sudden all his crisp and clear images and words got fuzzy as shit...if "hooray for me" is the only channel on your receiver/transmitter...your life ultimately rings empty

one thing that emerges from all these Embedded episodes is this: Mendes would be a hell of a lot cooler guy to spend an hour with over a brew...another thing is that Chad (just like Frankie and Aldo) are not in the least intimidated...amused, yes...and very very thankful to the guy for greatly magnifying any paydays involved in exchange for enduring the bravado and histrionics
___________
i'm not the only one in the world that would just love to see Chad carefully locate his testes on the forehead of Iced McHorizontal...

Hoooo might be because im High but dammn i want to bet mendes now

[fitguy67]

Hoooo might be because im High but dammn i want to bet mendes now

as good a reason as any, lol...

and more fun if we piss off as many "true believers" in the guy we're fading small by adding this to his list of nicknames

Connie McMittrione

[JIBBBY]

Weigh ins start now...

Mendes just hit +165 on 5d... That was my original prediction but it looks like it might jump to +170 or more before tomorrow fight time..

<small>UFC 189 - Featherweight 5 rounds - MGM Grand Garden Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada - PPV</small>
Sat 7/11		1001 Conor McGregor		<input id="editx" name="M1_0" size="4"> -190	<input id="editx" name="L1_0" size="4"> o2½ +100
11:59PM		1002 Chad Mendes		<input id="editx" name="M2_0" size="4"> +165	<input id="editx" name="L2_0" size="4"> u2½ -120

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

the Irish are there in force

[JIBBBY]

the Irish are there in force

The Irish crowd are gonna be let down... I don't think any of the Irish fighters win a single fight.. Those Mcc's better start drinking now to ease the pain... Lol..

[JIBBBY]

Damn Doomsday Howard looks like a midget standing next to Pendred.. That could be a problem...

Tim Means wants some.. Agro man ready to go......

Thatch is gonna thump Gunnar Nelson..

Stephens misses weight.. Dennis is gonna punish him for it...

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Almeida trying to be some kinda of playboy?? fade time

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

hmmmmm

[JIBBBY]

Captain America look alike has a mohawk dew.. Lol. Rory looking serious and ready to go!!! Ruthless Rob as well.. Should be a good fight!!!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

MCGreggor looks drawn out!!!!!!

look at his eyes

[JIBBBY]

Over blown midget, damn McMouth talks crap.. Got Chad fired up.. Let's see it go down tomorrow night, can't wait!!!!!

[JoshKnows46]

Damn Doomsday Howard looks like a midget standing next to Pendred.. That could be a problem...

Tim Means wants some.. Agro man ready to go......

Thatch is gonna thump Gunnar Nelson..

Stephens misses weight.. Dennis is gonna punish him for it...

3 outta 4 Irishmen win, maybe 4/4. Your gonna have a rough night if your betting against the Irish tomorrow night.

[JoshKnows46]

Almeida trying to be some kinda of playboy?? fade time

Waa thinking the same thing...

[fitguy67]

ME stare-down was a medical-school case study between a comfortable 10% cut and a dangerous 20% forced dehydration...

McDizzy's biggest fight now is with the screw-top to that drink box...the showman was fighting de-hydration vertigo so bad he could hardly mouth the pre-scripted marketing bravado to Rogan...and was uncharacteristically (and understandably, given the seriousness of the dehydration involved) "spacey"/"dissociated"...

Chad, on the other hand...looked fully in the moment and pumped...right down to the Ric-Flair "whooooo!!!"
_________

If you've ever had a bad gastro-attack and got IV'd in the ER to rehydrate...it works...but you don't feel anything close to "full speed ahead" recovered for 48 hours...

so Connor may be the bigger looking and heavier-on-the-scale man tomorrow night...but his drug-addict like appearance/demeanor at the weigh-ins...combined with what is known about the physiology of rehydration (water can be IV-replaced quite easily ...but the processes that were slowed during the dehydration need much longer to recover)...means that if i were a HEAVY holder of tickets on this now-shrivelled/tomorrow water-logged Mick...i'd lighten up my position considerably

if your bet is small, one way or the other...enjoy the fight...

[JuicedUp]

mendes is a .

pound it!

[JoshKnows46]

ME stare-down was a medical-school case study between a comfortable 10% cut and a dangerous 20% forced dehydration...

McDizzy's biggest fight now is with the screw-top to that drink box...the showman was fighting de-hydration vertigo so bad he could hardly mouth the pre-scripted marketing bravado to Rogan...and was uncharacteristically (and understandably, given the seriousness of the dehydration involved) "spacey"/"dissociated"...

Chad, on the other hand...looked fully in the moment and pumped...right down to the Ric-Flair "whooooo!!!"
_________

If you've ever had a bad gastro-attack and got IV'd in the ER to rehydrate...it works...but you don't feel anything close to "full speed ahead" recovered for 48 hours...

so Connor may be the bigger looking and heavier-on-the-scale man tomorrow night...but his drug-addict like appearance/demeanor at the weigh-ins...combined with what is known about the physiology of rehydration (water can be IV-replaced quite easily ...but the processes that were slowed during the dehydration need much longer to recover)...means that if i were a HEAVY holder of tickets on this now-shrivelled/tomorrow water-logged Mick...i'd lighten up my position considerably

if your bet is small, one way or the other...enjoy the fight...

Lmfao!!!, he made 145, safe to say he woulda came in at 146 had he struggled with the cut. Nothing diffrent than any other cut he's had, wishing your bet to win or coming up with nonsense like this won't help your odds.

[JIBBBY]

^^ I've been severly dehydrated to the point of feeling like I was dying and I was.. Had the IV drip and 10 minutes later felt like a million bucks.. Like magic.. I didn't have to go fight the next day though.. I was also in my 20's at the time..

Hard to say if McHydrate will be his normal self come tomorrow evening.. He's been there before and so perhaps he will be ok.. Still liking Mendes's chances regardless. He'll attack that single and get it...

Conrad had enough energy to start a scuffle with Faber back stage after weigh ins anyways.... http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/10...stage-mma-news

[mirinquads]

as good a reason as any, lol...

and more fun if we piss off as many "true believers" in the guy we're fading small by adding this to his list of nicknames

Connie McMittrione

I think you're one of the sharpest guys on the renments of this sinking ship my friend.

But I think you're the victim of counter hype. Mendes is not a guy to hold a guy down for 5 rounds, that's Edgars game, he could actually wrestle rape Mr Mcgregor. Mendes likes to punch and he punches extremely well, but he's going to reacting to CM because of the reach. If Mendes get's this win, it's due to a KO or gulliotine/RNC early. If Mendes get's the takedown, Conny is going to get up relatively quick and keep on the striking.
People LOVE to hate Conor, but he's style is extremely well put together. He likes to act how he acts, but he's a much better matchup against Mendes than he is Aldo.

Disclaimer: I'm very VERY close to switching to Mendes.

[Karmaphobia]

$200 Garbrandt/Briones Doesn't go to Decision
$100 Pendred/Howard Over 2.5 rounds
$50 Tim Means FTW
$80 Chad Mendes FTW
$100 Lawler/MacDonald starts round 3
$215 Mendes/McGregor Doesn't go to a Decision

GL y'all

[fitguy67]

^good identfication of differences between the two versions of "Frad" that have gotten unfortunately lumped together because of the well-cultivated heel-dom of McCoddled...

you're right, if this were McG v Edgar i would be more confident going against this guy who's style makes you either love him or "love to hate" him...as it is, the price of the fight has made it a no-brainer as far as a bet...but if it were -105/-105...i'd stay away on this fight and concentrate on the Thatch, Bermudez, and Means as sources for possible line-value (but if Conor-Edgar was pk-priced, i'd have no hesitation, whatever to bet against McG and if odds got to current levels, i'd invest maximally)...
_______

this Aldo, Edgar, Mendes, and now Conor is an example of how styles make fights cuz even tho' Edgar seems much more likely to whup the Mick, as you point out quite convincingly...an Edgar/Mendes h2h at even-odds would still definitely demand a fresh head-scratching look at even picking a winner
____________
right now, all we know for sure is that Aldo/Edgar/Mendes are the absolute top of the food chain...tomorrow night we may find out that it shall remain that way and the presumptuous Mick is put in his place (what i'm HOPING for, and betting small in this direction to make it more fun)...or the trio has clearly become a quartet, due to a close fight one way or t'other...or this fukkhead REALLY is in his own league...

intriguing...and it's fun trying to make some cash while this game of "777 card stud" plays itself out one reveal at a time...this "feddaweight" division specifically, and bettable markets in general

[JoshKnows46]

I think you're one of the sharpest guys on the renments of this sinking ship my friend.

But I think you're the victim of counter hype. Mendes is not a guy to hold a guy down for 5 rounds, that's Edgars game, he could actually wrestle rape Mr Mcgregor. Mendes likes to punch and he punches extremely well, but he's going to reacting to CM because of the reach. If Mendes get's this win, it's due to a KO or gulliotine/RNC early. If Mendes get's the takedown, Conny is going to get up relatively quick and keep on the striking.
People LOVE to hate Conor, but he's style is extremely well put together. He likes to act how he acts, but he's a much better matchup against Mendes than he is Aldo.

Disclaimer: I'm very VERY close to switching to Mendes.

Finally someone that gets it, Edgar will be his only test in the division, matchups make fights, and we'll get very good odds on it after the betting public see's what McGregor does to chad. I hope the aldo fight also happens before the Edgar fight,because we could still get a nice line on McGregor against aldo, and by the time he fights Edgar we could be looking at getting +270 range on Edgar., which would be outstanding value, I'd take Edgar at as low as +130, that's the only even money fight for Conor in the division, at the odds we'll end up getting, Edgar will be a massive play for me.

[fitguy67]

Finally someone that gets it, Edgar will be his only test in the division, matchups make fights, and we'll get very good odds on it after the betting public see's what McGregor does to chad. I hope the aldo fight also happens before the Edgar fight,because we could still get a nice line on McGregor against aldo, and by the time he fights Edgar we could be looking at getting +270 range on Edgar., which would be outstanding value, I'd take Edgar at as low as +130, that's the only even money fight for Conor in the division, at the odds we'll end up getting, Edgar will be a massive play for me.

josh, with that post u just jumped considerably in my estimation...

i had you pegged as an unconditional zombified Conor McNutHugger...obviously not so..."there's perspective in your madness"...

if (and that's a big IF, of course) you're right about Conor besting both Mendes and Aldo...the nickname irony comes into play...as it'll ultimately be a matchup with Edgar'll that'll provide "the answer" to the "can this upstart Mick really be the full package he says he is...to outclass all comers"

many of us think he'll be exposed tomorrow, and even if he succeeds...many will set the next test with Aldo...should the Conor train beat both Mendes and Aldo it'll be a full-fledged train, no "hype" about it...there'll only be one question left...and it'll be met by "the answer"
___________

BTW, due to the current closeness of Aldo-Mendes as evidenced by their last fight...should McG convincingly beat Mendes...i'll be a believer in McGregor as the best "feddaweight" in the world with only one possible exception...my favorite fighter...the ultimate cardio/chin/confidence (in both good times and bad) package i know of...Frankie "The Answer" Edgar...if anybody hasn't seen Edgar-Maynard 2...easily one of the greatest come-from-behind title-fight performances (and certainly THE greatest come from behind title-fight DRAW) of all time
___________

but, if Mendes exposes McGillicutty tomorrow, the feddaweight division will remain the Aldo/Mendes/Edgar division for the time being and will have derailed for now the McGregor train...hopefully spurring a little character-development in the process as he retools himself for his next serious run at a title (the current "it's all me all the time" oprah-channel-on-steroids shit is not only annoying, it's ultimately debilitating to a long run--as he'll need the perspective that comes from empathy/respect of others to keep himself "real"=free from the curse of the self and addiction to yes-men)...

if the guy can't free himself from the cult of himself, he may join a long list of "had it all's" who fizzled out WAY too early...possibly even before winning a title...may end up as the answer to a trivia question a generation down the road...if he can't escape the fascination he now has with just how fukkin' wonderful he is

there's currently a young Canadian woman's tennis player, named Eugenie Bouchard that's in danger of pissing all her talent down the drain because she's become intoxicated with herself, and drinks the kool-aid that all her hand-picked minions serve her..once you start "believing all the copy that your PR department prints" you're in trouble...

in Conor's case, he is his own PR department...and he fully believes ALL the hyperbole his PR department spits out...i expect this fukker to eventually hit the ground HARD...whether he picks himself up from that and recovers depends on a lot of things...i hope he hits the ground tomorrow (sooner, rather than later)...

________________

whatever happens, fascinating story in progress--worthy of a Rod Serling screenplay--"where'd THAT guy end up" flash in the pan trivia-item...OR all time great...it's all depends on if he's able to get his head out of his own ass that he's currently convinced himself smells better than any scent concocted by CalvinKlein

in ice-hockey terms you can google, the guy could easily become a Gordie Howe, but is currently on the path to end up as another Derek Sanderson...and everybody loves to see a self-absorbed asshole like a Derek Sanderson, or a Eugenie Bouchard fall flat on their face (or have it get punched violently by someone they ridiculed)

[shabang]

The problem with conor is that he has that 'all in' attitude.. like there isn't even an option of losing to people, not getting the belt etc etc .. So what happens if he loses against mendes tomorrow night? I mean, how can there really be "another run"? He'll be exposed, he won't get to fight aldo, etc. How can you not be embarrassed? How can you still talk after that and expect anybody to take you seriously? I mean, in my mind, him losing is absolutely huge just because thats what he has set himself up for. He has created this perfect mcgregor world and in that world he is the best, he does not lose, ever. It's not even an option. Not by a long shot. That's what is crazy. So what if he loses? What does he say after all that's been said?

This is why I bet on mcmuffin. His confidence. I've hedged a tiny bit with mendes since, and tempted to do it again tomorrow during the fights but, penetrate..wishing i would've stayed away from this one as it seems im just wasting money now since It seems like a coin toss at this point..it will be clear as fuk tomorrow though.

Can he stop the takdown or not..the more important question is can he get up when mendes takes him down. If he can spring right up then he'll be ok. If not, he is seriously fuked and he will know it probably right away. So I can't wait.
I feel like mendes will win and I will lose my money...especially after mcmuffin looked after the weigh ins, sheeeit..those lips were dry and white as fuk..Looked bad..He's def cutting too much weight and it doesn't look healthy..on the other hand, chad looked good and was energetic. Chad will be quicker, is anybody doubting this? I'm thinking he can hold him down and wrestle him but, we'll see.

[GR33D]

Mcmuffin getting manhandled by a bantamweight. lol

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2015/7/10/8931607/ufc-189-conor-mcgregor-vs-uriah-faber-weigh-in-fight-backstage-mma-news