UFC 189: Aldo vs. McGregor (July 11, 2015)

[agendaman]

mcgregor is a trap trap mendes here then mendes aldo aldo wins then aldo-mcgregor

[JIBBBY]

It's gonna keep going up, they can't put the line high enough. I'd bet McGregor all the way up to -300. Exellent balance, distance and angles he creates, he'll keep the midget on the end of his punches and knock him out early. Mendes has next to no chance, very slim punchers chance. Don't let the plus money draw y'all in...for percpective, its a similar fight to Jones/Cormier, exept mendes doesn't have the knockout power of Cormier, and McGregor is better at creating distance and using his reach then jones is. Eazzzzy money, this is a easier call then Werdum against Cain was. You'll know in the first minute of this fight, you have zero chance of winning this, if you bet chad.

All depends if Chad can close the distance and successfully get the takedowns early and often.. Chad had trouble getting Aldo down whom I think has much better take down defense then McGreg.. So I'm betting Chad shoots and puts McMouth on his back.. That becomes Chad's world as the ground and pound then begins...

Gotta consider even though Mendes couldn't get the ellusive Aldo to the ground he still survived the striking of a much longer and quicker fighter for the 5 rounds.. Mendes aslo looked really good in his last fight when literally knocking the head off Lamas in that 1st round...

Keep in mind McGregor has really ONLY been fed a steady diet of stand up strikers during his entire MMA pro career, he has also been training up for another striker in Aldo.. Now out of now where he is faced with perhaps the best wrestler in the division in Mendes..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Conor-McGregor-29688

Don't be so quick to write off Chad Mendez in this fight Josh.. He's got the experience, wrestling and the punching power going in.. He'll be McGregor's toughest test yet just because of his wrestling if not anything else..

[PaperTrail07]

Dont know why...but i feel Mendes has a better chance than aldo too....he has nothing to lose here...

[Killer_Demo]

Laid a unit on conor -150

[JoshKnows46]

All depends if Chad can close the distance and successfully get the takedowns early and often.. Chad had trouble getting Aldo down whom I think has much better take down defense then McGreg.. So I'm betting Chad shoots and puts McMouth on his back.. That becomes Chad's world as the ground and pound then begins...

Gotta consider even though Mendes couldn't get the ellusive Aldo to the ground he still survived the striking of a much longer and quicker fighter for the 5 rounds.. Mendes aslo looked really good in his last fight when he literally knocking the head off Lamas in the 1st round...

Keep in mind McGregor has really ONLY been fed a steady diet of stand up strikers during his entire MMA pro career, he has also been training up for another striker in Aldo.. Now out of now where he is faced with perhaps the best wrestler in the division in Mendes..http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Conor-McGregor-29688

Don't be so quick to write off Chad Mendez in this fight Josh.. He's got the experience, wrestling and the punching power going in.. He'll be McGregor's toughest test yet just because of his wrestling if not anything else..

Just because he's his toughest test, doesn't mean he's a test at all, Connor is more equipped to stop chads strength, then chad is to stop Connors strength... I personally believe aldo is more equipped to take down Connor than chad is, and he would have set it up better.The 3 week notice is a much bigger detriment to chad than it is Connor. Look at the fight with your head and not your heart, look at it from both sides. That's all I'm saying.

[JoshKnows46]

Dont know why...but i feel Mendes has a better chance than aldo too....he has nothing to lose here...

I don't think neither have much of a chance, but if Aldo came in with a smart gameplan then he would have had the better chance then mendes. He also is less wreckless then mendes and much better head movement and movement all together. Aldo and mendes wrestling is equal because Aldo is more athletic, and he can set it up with his striking, mendes will look like a fish outta water trying to close the distance against McGregor, McGregor is gonna run right through him.

Mendes only fought aldo close, because Aldo tends to rest during rounds and sometimes whole rounds, he doesn't mind going the distance, and he conserves energy, Aldos fighter iq is also not that of mcgregors, McGregor will put constant pressure on mendes, mendes will be sucking wind after 2 rounds if it lasts that long, no way this fight lasts longer than 3..mendes will be broken mentally after the first, all mendes bettors will know they have lost their bets after the first.

[PaperTrail07]

I don't think neither have much of a chance, but if Aldo came in with a smart gameplan then he would have had the better chance then mendes. He also is less wreckless then mendes and much better head movement and movement all together. Aldo and mendes wrestling is equal because Aldo is more athletic, and he can set it up with his striking, mendes will look like a fish outta water trying to close the distance against McGregor, McGregor is gonna run right through him.

Mendes only fought aldo close, because Aldo tends to rest during rounds and sometimes whole rounds, he doesn't mind going the distance, and he conserves energy, Aldos fighter iq is also not that of mcgregors, McGregor will put constant pressure on mendes, mendes will be sucking wind after 2 rounds if it lasts that long, no way this fight lasts longer than 3..mendes will be broken mentally after the first, all mendes bettors will know they have lost their bets after the first.

Well said....thats why I am on MCG but I feel you cant give someone like mendes that many chances without him landing something "lucky"...or things just going right for him....While he will win, I dont think it will be as easy at people think...mendes has a lot of heart

[JoshKnows46]

Well said....thats why I am on MCG but I feel you cant give someone like mendes that many chances without him landing something "lucky"...or things just going right for him....While he will win, I dont think it will be as easy at people think...mendes has a lot of heart

He does have heart, but this is the toughest test mendes has ever had, and it's on 3 weeks notice, he's never meet someone this skilled in the standup, that's gonna put this kinda pressure on him. The only comparable striker is aldo, minus the pressure, and he lost both times. Mendes knows he needs to get this fight to the ground, and Connor knows mendes needs to get this fight to the ground, I'll take Connors strength over mendes strength every day of the week. If mendes can't get it to the ground, he's finished, if mendes can get it to the ground, the next round starts on the feet, and as the fight goes on it's gonna get a little harder to get that takedown, I don't believe it's gonna come easy at all, because of Connors height, flexibility, reach, and how well he uses his distance, and his reach, and his power coupled with chads lack of defense and willingness to throw his whole body into each punch and takedown, that's two forces hitting hard, Connors fist to his face, and his complete lack of respect for chads stand-up and knowning chad needs it to the ground, it's harder to get something when your opponent knows your desperate for it, and that desperation will come more and more evident as each minute of the fight passes by.

[JIBBBY]

Josh you are way to McGregor happy..

The Irish dude hasn't really faced anyone yet like Chad.. Max Holloway was probably his stiffest test to date and that went the distance as he beat him on points in a striking fest.. Conor has never faced a guy like Mendes with this kind of wrestling pedigree.. We will see who gets t-bagged in a north south position in this fight.. Mcmouth talking all that ball crap just might get a mouth full.. Lol..

Let's see how much resolve McGregor has when he starts getting elbowed in the face and starts bleeding.. Guy has never been tested...

Chad represents in this fight, his confidence is at an all time high.. Been in championship fights before.. Mendez as the dog going in sounds good to me..

[JIBBBY]

I'm actually thinking Mendes by rear naked choke has a chance perhaps.. Might be worth a shot at these odds..

1039 Mendes wins by submission

<input id="editx" name="M1_18" size="4"> +670

McTap could get sub'd out (rear naked) if he gives up the full mount and then the back shortly after at some point.. He's tapped out before.. Mendes might just want to flatten him out though and then pound him out if given the chance in that position.. Hmmm? Just thinking these props over for value...

1041 Mendes wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_19" size="4"> +585

Flip side -

1015 McGregor wins in round 1

<input id="editx" name="M1_6" size="4"> +345

1037 McGregor wins by TKO/KO

<input id="editx" name="M1_17" size="4"> -102

[Heyeverybody99]

Head. Clean. Off.

[JoshKnows46]

Josh you are way to McGregor happy..

The Irish dude hasn't really faced anyone yet like Chad.. Max Holloway was probably his stiffest test to date and that went the distance as he beat him on points in a striking fest.. Conor has never faced a guy like Mendes with this kind of wrestling pedigree.. We will see who gets t-bagged in a north south position in this fight.. Mcmouth talking all that ball crap just might get a mouth full.. Lol..

Let's see how much resolve McGregor has when he starts getting elbowed in the face and starts bleeding.. Guy has never been tested...

Chad represents in this fight, his confidence is at an all time high.. Been in championship fights before.. Mendez as the dog going in sounds good to me..

I'm really not jibbby, you're in for a big surprise.... the best wrestler mcgregors faced, is that really your only reason?... Cain was the best wrestler werdum ever faced. You gotta be ahead of the curve, not behind it, if you ever want to get value on a fighter...what makes you think Conor can't stop chads takedowns, beside never fighting a wrestler?.... I know I'm beating this play hard, but it'll be worth it, if I can stop even just one person from making such a obviously horrible bet on mendes. For me, this is clear as day.

[Giants007]

anybody else liking Lawler-MacDonald won't go 5 round distance @ +115 ?

[JoshKnows46]

anybody else liking Lawler-MacDonald won't go 5 round distance @ +115 ?

I believe the most likely outcome is MacDonald by decision with MacDonald focused on out pointing Robbie and avoiding the big power. MacDonald will have the cardio advantage from the 3rd round- to the finish, don't see him getting into a slug fest... If your gonna go with the under rounds, I'd go with Robbie by Ko... I believe Robbie has a better chin than MacDonald, as well as more power... Robbie also does tend to take rounds off as well to conserve energy, he should work on his cardio....But I do see it going the distance, and MacDonald winning 4 or 5 of those rounds.

[GR33D]

$5.5k on mendes when the line reaches 2.50. will post screen shot for all those non believers

[Heyeverybody99]

$5.5k on mendes when the line reaches 2.50. will post screen shot for all those non believers

You also said Cain via TKO was your biggest bet of the year, so it's not surprising you make another horrible bet.

[GR33D]

You also said Cain via TKO was your biggest bet of the year, so it's not surprising you make another horrible bet.

it was, i failed. get over it. my largest bet before that was cormier. you cant win them all. if i lose this one, no doubt im robbing a bank.

[Heyeverybody99]

it was, i failed. get over it. my largest bet before that was cormier. you cant win them all. if i lose this one, no doubt im robbing a bank.

You have a greater chance of getting away with robbing a bank, than Mendes has of winning this fight.

[GR33D]

You have a greater chance of getting away with robbing a bank, than Mendes has of winning this fight.

this isnt randy couture vs james toney.

[Giants007]

I think the main event is 50/50 coinflip

[GR33D]

[JoshKnows46]

I think the main event is 50/50 coinflip

He will run right through him, even if this was under perfect circumstances for mendes, which it's not, McGregor would beat him 10 out of 10 times. Mendes barly has a punchers chance, very slightly because he has power, but McGregor has some of the best striking defense in the entire ufc, 10 out of 10 fights. This is Eazzzzy money, easy easy easy!!!!!! Pound this shit!...you will never see McGregor at this low of odds again after this fight,in this weightclass, not even against aldo... Next time you see McGregor at these odds again, will be when he moves up to lightweight!!!!

[GR33D]

news just coming in, Apparently Mendes is actually Conor's father.

[Giants007]

McGregor has no credit, honestly im leaning chad, at least I have seem him fight real guys

[JoshKnows46]

McGregor has no credit, honestly im leaning chad, at least I have seem him fight real guys

You might as well flush your money down the toliet. Good luck!

[Pmoney]

$5.5k on mendes when the line reaches 2.50. will post screen shot for all those non believers

[GR33D]

He will run right through him, even if this was under perfect circumstances for mendes, which it's not, McGregor would beat him 10 out of 10 times. Mendes barly has a punchers chance, very slightly because he has power, but McGregor has some of the best striking defense in the entire ufc, 10 out of 10 fights. This is Eazzzzy money, easy easy easy!!!!!! Pound this shit!...you will never see McGregor at this low of odds again after this fight,in this weightclass, not even against aldo... Next time you see McGregor at these odds again, will be when he moves up to lightweight!!!!

listen to this guy. i need the odds on mendes to rise.

[mirinquads]

Why are you guys dropping big bucks on this fight?

There's so many unanswered questions here, and SO many better spots coming up. I have never understood why people do this with big fights, it's not logical.

[GR33D]

Excitement factor.
I work for a mining company up north in the middle of the desert, most of us are on 200k+ a year. We work a month up here and a week off back home. There's nothing to do up here other then drink or go to the gym. So I like to gamble on fights for entertainment. If it was strictly for profit I would be cashing in Bermudez

[mirinquads]

Reasonable reply.

[UncleChael]

It's gonna be like 'Silva vs. Sonnen 2' with McGoat being 'Silva.

[JoshKnows46]

It's gonna be like 'Silva vs. Sonnen 2' with McGoat being 'Silva.

Great great comparison, Chad stays in guard and doesn't threatin with submissions or improve position when he has guys on the ground just like sonnen, exept sonnen is a bit more active with ground and pound. I'm personally not worried about chads top game, and for the amount of damage he does inflict on the ground, it won't be worth the amount of energy and punishment he has to take to get Connor down, it won't come easy at all getting Connor down as most people foolishly assume on this board. Guy has excellent balance, fights long and from the south paw, excellent defensive striking and he knows chads only shot is the takedown as silva knew with sonnen. This is as close as it comes to the books giving money away, still excellent value for those that didn't jump on Conor early, anything under -300 is a damn gift guys!!!!

[JoshKnows46]

Why are you guys dropping big bucks on this fight?

There's so many unanswered questions here, and SO many better spots coming up. I have never understood why people do this with big fights, it's not logical.

Because it isn't a close fight, line says it is, line getting closer to what it should be, but it's still off..pretty simple...value is value no matter where the fight is placed on the card, it's the best value on this card. 5 round fight, 3 weeks notice, striker that puts the pressure on guys, HUGE ADVANTAGE in the striking and easy path to victory....your never gonna have the answer to every question, you just need to have a educated observation, once that one question is answered, as it will be in this fight, you won't get that same value next time he fights a wrestler, it would have been -270/-400 if that question was answered before this fight, recieve your gift and feel blessed that question wasn't answered before this fight.

[GR33D]

You really are Inlove with the idea that Conor wins this fight. If he loses you really are going to have to change your username to Joshknowsfuckall46

[JoshKnows46]

You really are Inlove with the idea that Conor wins this fight. If he loses you really are going to have to change your username to Joshknowsfuckall46

I'll do that if he loses, I'll change my name to that for life, if you change ur name to joshknowsall for 2 weeks... Deal? I'm pounding it like pornstar pussy, I've never done that for a mma fight but my record when posting those on football is 23-2 over the last 5 years for those that know me from other forums, they don't come around often, but when they do, you better bet your ass I'm not losing... I'm extremely confident in this play!