UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014)

[Beelzebubzy]

the last time there was a browne vs silva main event, Silva KOed Browne

[Wilbo86]

the last time there was a browne vs silva main event, Silva KOed Browne

Ahhh nice catch, lucky i didn't throw any moeny down yet.

[MD]

Ahhh nice catch, lucky i didn't throw any moeny down yet.

But surely it won't come up red twice in a row, right? Brown should win to settle the variance brah.

[Skel]

Statz:

http://mmajunkie.com/2014/05/ufc-fight-night-40-pre-fight-facts-matt-brown-looks-to-build-on-welterweight-ko-record

[JIBBBY]

This is a good card.. Looking forward to it... Gonna do a write up on it later today..

I can start by saying I like what I've been seeing from Matt Brown lately, I use to think he wouldn't make it much longer in the UFC.. I was wrong as he's worked hard over the years and has really upped his MMA game of late.. It shows in his recent fights... He's corrected alot of weaknesses and doesn't get broken mentally as easily like in the past..

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2050279-matt-brown-vs-erick-silva-full-head-to-toe-breakdown

Silva is a tough cookie to crack though..

Thinking Matt Brown is a bit tougher standing if he comes to bang which he typically does.. Matt Brown is experienced enough now to handle himself on the ground as well.. At almost a 2-1 underdog going in I think it's worth a shot going with Matt Brown anyways...

Going with Matt Brown as I think he has a few more tools then Silva at this point.. Silva has been on a win one lose one fight streak... If that trend continues he will then lose this next fight.. Check... http://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Erick-Silva-15009

[marzwoody]

I have faith in mr brown

[JIBBBY]

Larkin vs Phillippou -

I'm thinking Phillippou comes out strong and then blows his wad as the fight continues on. Larking can take what ever Phillippou brings as he's never been dropped.. Stood with guys like Robbie Lawler, no problem..

I honestly don't see how Phillippou can win this fight once he starts to doubt and gas... I can see Larkin getting the KO late...

My money will certainly be on Larenz Larkin in this one..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinnati-fs1?f1=constantinos-philippou&f2=Lorenz-Larkin

[JIBBBY]

Daron Cruickshank vs Erik Kock -

Erik Kock is a huge favorite going into this one and I'm scratching my head thinking why this is so? I think this fight is almost a coin toss.. Daron is a tough dude and brings it.. Kock has fought stiffer competition lately..

Even though Kock has probably fought the better fighters recently, he hasn't been all that successful fighting them..

If I had to pick this fight - I'd say Erik Kock will probably win by KO late but at almost a 3-1 favorite I certainly think it's not worth the try at those odds..

[marzwoody]

Daron Cruickshank vs Erik Kock -

Erik Kock is a huge favorite going into this one and I'm scratching my head thinking why this is so? I think this fight is almost a coin toss.. Daron is a tough dude and brings it.. Kock has fought stiffer competition lately..

Even though Kock has probably fought the better fighters recently, he hasn't been all that successful fighting them..

If I had to pick this fight - I'd say Erik Kock will probably win by KO late but at almost a 3-1 favorite I certainly think it's not worth the try at those odds..

You are a good addition to the forum. keep it up

[JIBBBY]

You are a good addition to the forum. keep it up

Thanks Woody.. I will continue to post info. when I find the time.. Like this forum section.. It's not too busy or have too many idiots posting...

I'm not always right with my picks but do try to lay down the important facts in these match ups... I'm also a team player if it helps.. Hope you guys share your views on the fights like I do... Makes for good reads and continued insight...

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Hey Jibby (or anyone else) do you have any info. on how bad Brown is injured? I know he will never pull out of this main event in his hometown. I see upset potential for Cruickshank & maybe even Magny. There is an individual (who shall remain nameless) who's judgement I respect that disagree's with my belief that Koch should be only a slight favorite vs Cruickshank. -335 for Koch is way too expensive. I also believe Means should be around -185.

[bjpenn85]

Stood with lawler no problem? Did you see the fight? Let me know when you have done so. He was seconds away from getting KO. He should win this fight though.

[Vaughany]

Hey Jibby (or anyone else) do you have any info. on how bad Brown is injured? I know he will never pull out of this main event in his hometown. I see upset potential for Cruickshank & maybe even Magny. There is an individual (who shall remain nameless) who's judgement I respect that disagree's with my belief that Koch should be only a slight favorite vs Cruickshank. -335 for Koch is way too expensive. I also believe Means should be around -185.

Brown was posting photos and videos of him running through mountains and shiiit the other day so he cant be that badly injured!

[Skel]

is there any actual source for the injury rumor or are people just running with one guy's speculation?

[Vaughany]

is there any actual source for the injury rumor or are people just running with one guy's speculation?

ha what do you think

[Wilbo86]

is there any actual source for the injury rumor or are people just running with one guy's speculation?

http://www.bestfightodds.com

Have a look at the line movements after open, definately something weird going on.

I was pretty surprised when the line first came out and usually thats a good time to take another look.

[Wilbo86]

I can't justify that much movement on the basis of people rating his Silva's sub game.Mind you, there's some notable absence of input around here..
Get the tin foil hats out i say

[Vaughany]

http://www.bestfightodds.com

Have a look at the line movements after open, definately something weird going on.

I was pretty surprised when the line first came out and usually thats a good time to take another look.

Que?! what is weird?

if you are working on that basis then almost every fighter must have an injury that people know about because lines fluctuate all the time after opening on 5dimes/sportbet. Only takes a couple max bets to move a line.

[Wilbo86]

Que?! what is weird?

if you are working on that basis then almost every fighter must have an injury that people know about because lines fluctuate all the time after opening on 5dimes/sportbet. Only takes a couple max bets to move a line.

From +130 to +190? That seems big to me, but i'll defer to your opinion. If that was right before fight time i wouldn't have looked twice

[bringbacklife]

brown , koch, larkin

[Vaughany]

From +130 to +190? That seems big to me, but i'll defer to your opinion. If that was right before fight time i wouldn't have looked twice

Erik Silva is just a massively hyped "prospect" (despite being almost 30!) so people like to blindly bet him

[JIBBBY]

Stood with lawler no problem? Did you see the fight? Let me know when you have done so. He was seconds away from getting KO. He should win this fight though.

I saw the fight and for most of it he was taking what Robbie was giving standing like a champ.. Larkin started gassing out at the end and did almost get stopped.. Perhaps I shouldn't have said "no problem"..

Thanks for the correction.. Robbie Lawler does hit like a truck though..

Still Larkin did survive that fight and won it as no one has stopped him standing yet.. Phill. isn't going to drop Larkin I don't think in this one anyways..

[JIBBBY]

Ron Paul I haven't got any word on Matt Browns so called injury... I'm not buying into it..

This is an in depth write up as of yesterday with good sources.. I think it would have been mentioned in this write up if there were any serious pending injuries for either fighter going in.... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ith-matt-brown

[Vaughany]

Ron Paul I haven't got any word on Matt Browns so called injury... I'm not buying into it..

This is an in depth write up as of yesterday with good sources.. I think it would have been mentioned in this write up if there were any serious pending injuries for either fighter going in.... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2...ith-matt-brown

lol I assume this was written by you and were just looking for an excuse to post it?!

[Wilbo86]

Erik Silva is just a massively hyped "prospect" (despite being almost 30!) so people like to blindly bet him

Well i hope you're right good sir, becuase brown at + 200 makes me question my sexuality...

The matchmaking for Silva has consistently confused me, he either gets opponents he's custom built to destroy or gets thrown in with the elite, no middle ground. I assume the UFC is trying to fast track a prospect for the brazilian market.

[JIBBBY]

Neil Magny vs Tim Means - Looking at this fight I'm thinking Tim Means has a huge experience edge over Neil.. Dirty Bird has had 26 fights to Magny's 13... Also the recent losses of Tim Means have been tough fought decision losses against pretty good fighters..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinnati-fs1?f1=Neil-Magny&f2=Tim-Means

I'm liking Tim Means in this fight because I think he has more tricks and tools up his sleeve.. I think his experience in the cage will be a factor..... Magny will probably be the faster and quicker fighter but at some point I'm thinking Tim will get the best of him..

Maybe a sub victory for Tim means after he catches him standing and rocks him late in the fight perhaps?

Am I willing to bet on Tim Means at around -250 probably not though..

[TheCalculator]

Both of these guys are "live by the sword, die by the sword" fighters (although Silva has been working on pacing himself more -- but that's not his nature).

Brown vs. Silva is really a pick-em. I capped them close to even so there's massive value on Brown (assuming he's not injured).

[Wilbo86]

Both of these guys are "live by the sword, die by the sword" fighters (although Silva has been working on pacing himself more -- but that's not his nature).

Brown vs. Silva is really a pick-em. I capped them close to even so there's massive value on Brown (assuming he's not injured).

Yeah i conservatively capped it as about a pickem, I'm trying to temper my Brown bias.

Honestly, i see a farily significant discrepancy in the sticking matchup that isn't matched with an equal discrepancy in the ground game. Silva's stiking is a flashy, but still a little sloppy, and i consider Brown's clinch work is some of the best in MMA. The only worry is getting that close could result in a few scrambles, where Silva has proven highly effective, at least in the first round.

Sorry, i ramble. I just love talking about Matt Brown.

[TheCalculator]

I'm trying to temper my Brown bias.

I'm with you. I've been dead wrong before with my "heavy biases" with heavy dogs like this.

[MD]

From +130 to +190? That seems big to me, but i'll defer to your opinion. If that was right before fight time i wouldn't have looked twice

Nothing out of the ordinary.

Well i hope you're right good sir, becuase brown at + 200 makes me question my sexuality...

The matchmaking for Silva has consistently confused me, he either gets opponents he's custom built to destroy or gets thrown in with the elite, no middle ground. I assume the UFC is trying to fast track a prospect for the brazilian market.

Wait until you see some Oddessa specials, you'll lose your mind. Jon Tuck opened +125 against Zhang, closed over -300.

[JIBBBY]

Yeah i conservatively capped it as about a pickem, I'm trying to temper my Brown bias.

Honestly, i see a farily significant discrepancy in the sticking matchup that isn't matched with an equal discrepancy in the ground game. Silva's stiking is a flashy, but still a little sloppy, and i consider Brown's clinch work is some of the best in MMA. The only worry is getting that close could result in a few scrambles, where Silva has proven highly effective, at least in the first round.

Sorry, i ramble. I just love talking about Matt Brown.

Not so sure this one is gonna become a ground war Wilbo..

If it does remain standing I think Matt Brown will press the fight, but with that being said I'm not so convinced he has a stronger punch or a better chin then Silva.. I do think Matt Brown will come forward and try to impose his will on Silva and at some point he has a good chance of breaking Silva's will if he doesn't get clipped and dropped first...

Cardio and pace probably favors Brown..

I'd be surprised if this fight becomes a ground war anyways... Both fighters tend to like to throw down standing..

[PaperTrail07]

Cruik takes round 1 with cardio and kicks IMO...being a 3 round fight I might have to gamble on him

Daron Cruickshank vs Erik Kock -

Erik Kock is a huge favorite going into this one and I'm scratching my head thinking why this is so? I think this fight is almost a coin toss.. Daron is a tough dude and brings it.. Kock has fought stiffer competition lately..

Even though Kock has probably fought the better fighters recently, he hasn't been all that successful fighting them..

If I had to pick this fight - I'd say Erik Kock will probably win by KO late but at almost a 3-1 favorite I certainly think it's not worth the try at those odds..

[JIBBBY]

Ed Herman vs Rafael Natal - Not sure why this fight isn't on the main card? I think it's gonna be a good scrap.. Anyone think Ed can take Natal?

My thinking is Natal has a big advantage on the ground so Short Fuse better keep this one on the feet standing.. If Ed Herman can keep it standing I think he wins and it's just that simple in this fight..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinnati-fs1?f1=Ed-Herman&f2=rafael-natal

Tim Kennedy lit up Natal in his last fight so I'm sure Natal is looking for redemption coming into this one.. This fight is gonna be tricky but I'm leaning towards Ed Short Fuse Herman in this one.. I think he keeps it standing and gets the KO at some point.. It appears Ed is a slight underdog going in so I'm probably gonna lay a few pennies on it just to gamble I think..

[MD]

Ed Herman vs Rafael Natal - Not sure why this fight isn't on the main card? I think it's gonna be a good scrap.. Anyone think Ed can take Natal?

My thinking is Natal has a big advantage on the ground so Short Fuse better keep this one on the feet standing.. If Ed Herman can keep it standing I think he wins and it's just that simple in this fight..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinnati-fs1?f1=Ed-Herman&f2=rafael-natal

Tim Kennedy lit up Natal in his last fight so I'm sure Natal is looking for redemption coming into this one.. This fight is gonna be tricky but I'm leaning towards Ed Short Fuse Herman in this one.. I think he keeps it standing and gets the KO at some point.. It appears Ed is a slight underdog going in so I'm probably gonna lay a few pennies on it just to gamble I think..

No. No it isn't. Watch some tape.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

No. No it isn't. Watch some tape.

Slight edge to Natal. Just a pick not a play. Much better fights to bet on than this one.