UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014)

[JIBBBY]

No. No it isn't. Watch some tape.

I've seen them both fight for years, and what I remember most is that Ed gets pissed off and turns red and then brings it.. Crazy ginger rage!!! Lol..

Anyways, Ed is not easily defeated on his feet is my thinking. I just think ED brings a little bit more standing. Natal is no joke though, coming off an embarrassing loss as well.... I do think this is a tough fight to pick or bet on period.. Ed also loves to give up his back and then let his opponent sink in the rear naked choke when getting rocked....

Who frigg'n knows in this one?????.....Flip a coin and like Ron Paul said there are certainly better fights to bet on for sure... I just think this will be a good fight to watch and it probably should be on the main card...

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I think the Eduardo vs Wineland fight will be interesting. Eduardo is the Muay Thai coach for Jose Aldo & Renan Barao. Needless to say his stand up is pretty good. If Wineland decides not to use his wrestling then there is potential for an upset.

[Beelzebubzy]

I think the Eduardo vs Wineland fight will be interesting. Eduardo is the Muay Thai coach for Jose Aldo & Renan Barao. Needless to say his stand up is pretty good. If Wineland decides not to use his wrestling then there is potential for an upset.

This guy is
a) injury prone
b) had trouble with Curran
c) just because your a coach does not mean you are a good player
d) long layoff
e) 35 years old in Brazil is like the equivalent of being 45 American

[NunyaBidness]

e) 35 years old in Brazil is like the equivalent of being 45 American

I dunno why, but this made me snort tea out my nose.

[JIBBBY]

I think the Eduardo vs Wineland fight will be interesting. Eduardo is the Muay Thai coach for Jose Aldo & Renan Barao. Needless to say his stand up is pretty good. If Wineland decides not to use his wrestling then there is potential for an upset.

Eddie Wineland is a 4-1 favorite..(is tempting to bet the other way) but the dude is tough as nails and sooo hard to beat.. Eduardo isn't a bad fighter either but I think he's gonna be out classed in this fight.. Eddie hits harder, has a wrestling advantage and is simply more well rounded.. Lastly he has fought stiffer competition of late..

Eddie's only recent loss is too Barao and that's the man right there.. Eduardo has fought bums and barely squeaked out a decision victory over Jeff Curan in his last fight.. (His claim to fame so far)

Eddie Knocks out people, Eduardo tries to out point people.. I don't think this fight will be close.. Eddie probably takes him out early on...

I was thinking of taking Eddie Wineland and Nik Lents in a parlay bet myself..

[Pabst]

I really like the O2 1/2 on Herman vs. Natal at -180, what do you guys think?

[Wilbo86]

I'd take the under1.5 for potts/Palelei instead, roughly same line, much clearer path to it cashing.

[Bumdeal]

I really like the O2 1/2 on Herman vs. Natal at -180, what do you guys think?

I'd be worried about Herman getting subbed real quick or Natal getting slept real quick.

[JIBBBY]

I just found this link on this website... Man I love this forum!!!!

I certainly need to open up a few more accounts.. Maybe all 8 to get the best value on one bet... Hmmm? Got 2 accounts going now. Thinking that's not enough..

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ufc-fight-night-40-betting/

[FightFightFight]

https://www.bestfightodds.com

[JIBBBY]

www.bestfightodds.com

I love the team play and shared information.. Thanks man!!!

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Plays for this Saturday. Good Luck All!

8u Cabral & 1u Under 2.5
5u Wineland
5u Smolka & 4u Over 2.5
5u Means
3.4u Lentz Over 2.5
3.4u Horiguchi
3u Brown
3u Larkin & 3u Over 2.5
2.5u Koch
2u Palelei

[JIBBBY]

Plays for this Saturday. Good Luck All!

8u Cabral & 1u Under 2.5
5u Wineland
5u Smolka & 4u Over 2.5
5u Means
3.4u Lentz Over 2.5
3.4u Horiguchi
3u Brown
3u Larkin & 3u Over 2.5
2.5u Koch
2u Palelei

Good luck Ronny..

I don't bet the over or under rounds as you just never know when a fighter is going to fight to survive and go for the decision on points or blitz and go for bust..

However, a banger with suspect cardio is a good play for the under in rounds when I begin to think about it.. A dancer with good cardio and chin is something to think about on the flip side..

I typically just play winner or loser... I need to change it up like some of you guys do..

[Wilbo86]

Plays for this Saturday. Good Luck All!

8u Cabral & 1u Under 2.5
5u Wineland
5u Smolka & 4u Over 2.5
5u Means
3.4u Lentz Over 2.5
3.4u Horiguchi
3u Brown
3u Larkin & 3u Over 2.5
2.5u Koch
2u Palelei

I don´t see any double-digit unit plays here, please reconsider your bet sizes in a responsible manner and repost.

[Wilbo86]

Also, I could be mistaken but are Brown and the under the only non-chalk plays?

Sorry, I've had a few beers, probably should stop antagonising....

[Skel]

Natal -120 2.4 units to win 2 units
Brown in R1 +650 .5 units to win 3.25 units
Smolka -130 2.6 units to win 2 units
Brown ITD +275 1.5 units to win 4.125 units
Brown ITD +220 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Means -210 5.25 units to win 2.5 units
Brown +180 1.5 units to win 2.7 units
Brown/Silva U1.5 -130 2.08 units to win 1.6 units
Philippou/Larkin O2.5 + Henderson/Cormier O2.5 2.5 units to win 3.25 units
Philippou/Larkin O2.5 + Dos Santos 4 units to win 1.75 units
Tumenov + Natal/Herman O2.5 2 units to win 2.7 units
Gamburyan/Lentz O2.5 + Brown/Silva doesn't GTD + Not Cariaso ITD 2.5 units to win 2.15 units
Wineland + Lentz + Weichel/Green O2.5 2.5 units to win 3.4 units
Koch + Natal + Wineland + Tumenov + Lentz + Smolka/Cariaso O2.5 .5 units to win 3.5 units
Salas + Tumenov + Weichel/Green O2.5 + Not Cariaso ITD + Not Magny ITD 1.5 units to win 4.7 units
Weichel/Green O2.5 + Brown/Silva doesn't GTD + Not Magny ITD 2.5 units to win 2.45 units
Koch + Means + Salas + Lentz + Natal + Wineland + Natal + Weichel/Green O2.5 .5 units to win 7 units

I don't feel super-confident about these; not really feeling on this week. I also probably won't be able to watch the card live as I'll be traveling this weekend.

[Pabst]

I see this event as a very tricky event, so I'm betting small.

3.75units on Natal / Herman O2 1/2 at -180.
2units on Horiguchi -170

[JIBBBY]

2units on Horiguchi -170

Becareful on this bet Pabst.. I like the underdog actually in this one.. Rule of thumb always bet against the Asian fighters in the UFC unless they have a massive Olympic wrestling or Judo back ground!!!

Horiguchi is a punching threat but has he really fought anyone great? Hmmm? I'm giving the #15 ranked Montague 12-3 a legit shot at winning this bout.. He's got more ways to win then Horiguchi does in my mind.. Value is off as well in my mind at -170 ish... It's more like a pick em I think...

Montague got lit up against John Dodson in a 1st round KO loss in his last fight.. Understandable.. Not sure he's gonna let that happen again.. I see a good rebound fight coming up... His UFC career may be on the line also in this bout..

Horiguchi's last big fight win in the UFC was against this guy.. Come on. Whooopie.....http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Dustin-Pague I thinks it's good value with the underdog in this fight.. I'm on it for a few pennies myself..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinnati-fs1?f1=Kyoji-Horiguchi&f2=Darrell-Montague

[Ron_Paul_2012]

I just found this link on this website... Man I love this forum!!!!

I certainly need to open up a few more accounts.. Maybe all 8 to get the best value on one bet... Hmmm? Got 2 accounts going now. Thinking that's not enough..

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/ufc-...ht-40-betting/

You live in Cali if I remember correctly. So the best 3 for anyone living in the states would be 5dimes, Bookmaker & Bovada. I use all three to line shop. 5dimes opening lines are the best but if you miss the openers then Bookmaker usually has good lines as well. Bovada is always the last resort. However, once in a while you can find a line that beats both 5dimes as well as Bookmaker. All 3 are reliable when it comes to payouts. I consistently withdraw from all 3 & have never had a problem with any of them so far.

[Lick496]

1u Cariaso
1u Brown
1u Costa

[PunisherIND]

You live in Cali if I remember correctly. So the best 3 for anyone living in the states would be 5dimes, Bookmaker & Bovada. I use all three to line shop. 5dimes opening lines are the best but if you miss the openers then Bookmaker usually has good lines as well. Bovada is always the last resort. However, once in a while you can find a line that beats both 5dimes as well as Bookmaker. All 3 are reliable when it comes to payouts. I consistently withdraw from all 3 & have never had a problem with any of them so far.

the problem with bovada is they will limit you to peanuts if you are consistently beating them.

[BIGDAY]

I like Brown's chances. Silva can be pressured.

[Pabst]

Becareful on this bet Pabst.. I like the underdog actually in this one.. Rule of thumb always bet against the Asian fighters in the UFC unless they have a massive Olympic wrestling or Judo back ground!!!

Horiguchi is a punching threat but has he really fought anyone great? Hmmm? I'm giving the #15 ranked Montague 12-3 a legit shot at winning this bout.. He's got more ways to win then Horiguchi does in my mind.. Value is off as well in my mind at -170 ish... It's more like a pick em I think...

Montague got lit up against John Dodson in a 1st round KO loss in his last fight.. Understandable.. Not sure he's gonna let that happen again.. I see a good rebound fight coming up... His UFC career may be on the line also in this bout..

Horiguchi's last big fight win in the UFC was against this guy.. Come on. Whooopie.....http://www.ufc.com/fighter/Dustin-Pague I thinks it's good value with the underdog in this fight.. I'm on it for a few pennies myself..

http://www.ufc.com/event/ufn-cincinn...rrell-Montague

Go watch the Montague / McCall fight. McCall said a couple of times Darrell doesn't hit that hard and I do question his cardio where Horigoshi doesn't have cardio problem from what we've seen.

[fitguy67]

Liking Matt Brown in this one.

Erik Silva is just a massively hyped "prospect" (despite being almost 30!) so people like to blindly bet him

I like Brown's chances. Silva can be pressured.

don't know what's keeping Brown's price at such bargain levels...but i like it...bought some at +195 four days ago at 5d...just looked at it again a few minutes ago and see that it's firmed up only 5 ticks from then to +190...and I was still able to add a unit at matchbook at +194.1 (the posted +198 adjusted for commission)...

if you'll allow me an excursion down that dark alley of "MMA math"...if I saw Brown, StunGun and Fitch comin' at me with bad intentions...it's Brown i'd most like to avoid...i already made some dog-flyer coin fading the VERY flashy but VERY over-hyped Silva vs the other two, why not give the MMA slot-machine another crank with not-so-arguably the tougest hombre he's ever been drawn up against

[fitguy67]

This guy is
a) injury prone
b) had trouble with Curran
c) just because your a coach does not mean you are a good player
d) long layoff
e) 35 years old in Brazil is like the equivalent of being 45 American

I dunno why, but this made me snort tea out my nose.

it's like Detroiters driving across the Ambassador Bridge into Windsor for an exchange-rate enhanced weekend's worth of clubbing/skirt-chasing...getting jazzed--as they cross the line officially separating the two nations--that their 6-inch hog suddenly becomes "9-inches Canadian"

[PaperTrail07]

Fighting - 24401 M. Brown +175 for Game
Fighting - 24406 L. Larkin -240 for Game
Fighting - 24409 D. Cruickshank +350 for Game
Fighting - 24418 S. Palelei -310 for Game
Fighting - 24426 R. Natal -150 for Game
Fighting - 24434 Y. Cabral -470 for Game
Fighting - 24442 N. Lentz -410 for Game
Fighting - 24429 D. Montague +165

[PaperTrail07]

Magny at +215 has been added

[PunisherIND]

Who will be the parlay buster tonight? Manville?

[marzwoody]

Ladies and gentlemen. who do you have tonight?

[NunyaBidness]

Who will be the parlay buster tonight? Manville?

Ben Wall via being a manimal.

[Vaughany]

Haha wouldnt be surprised.

[NunyaBidness]

Seriously though, Gamburyan +460? Is he dead? Are his ring guys going to swing his body around the ring like Weekend at Bernies?

[Vaughany]

Ha its because parisyan droppped the bomb telling everbody about gamburyan and rousey's tampons

[Bumdeal]

so far:


risk 1u to win 2.32u
Pending 4 Team Parlay
Pending 5/10/14 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1102 Lorenz Larkin -240* vs Costas Philippou
Pending 5/10/14 11:00pm UFC Fighting 1302 Tim Means -255* vs Neil Magny
Pending 5/10/14 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2002 Nik Lentz -420* vs Manvel Gamburyan
Pending 5/10/14 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Justin Salas -275* vs Ben Wall


risk .5u to win 1.32u
Pending 5/10/14 6:30pm UFC Fighting 2202 Anthony Lapsley +220* vs Albert Tumenov




have a few open parlays with larkin i'm deciding how to fill

[NunyaBidness]

Good luck Bum, we're on a lot of the same plays.

Love the avatar btw, funniest show on TV!