UFC Fight Night: Brown vs. Silva (May 10, 2014)

[fitguy67]

If this fight was in Brazil, it might have been stopped in the first round. I really thought the ref was going to stop it tonight when Silva was pounding away.

I just started a thread on EXACTLY this...

http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma-ufc-betting/2879319-ufc-fn40-stoppages-too-fast-too-slow-just-right.html

[yisman]

If this fight was in Brazil, it might have been stopped in the first round. I really thought the ref was going to stop it tonight when Silva was pounding away.

yeah it's so subjective

different location and/or different referee, it could've been stopped earlier

[Skel]

Natal -120 2.4 units to win 2 units
Brown in R1 +650 .5 units to win 3.25 units
Smolka -130 2.6 units to win 2 units
Brown ITD +275 1.5 units to win 4.125 units
Brown ITD +220 1 unit to win 2.4 units
Means -210 5.25 units to win 2.5 units
Brown +180 1.5 units to win 2.7 units
Brown/Silva U1.5 -130 2.08 units to win 1.6 units
Philippou/Larkin O2.5 + Henderson/Cormier O2.5 2.5 units to win 3.25 units
Philippou/Larkin O2.5 + Dos Santos 4 units to win 1.75 units
Tumenov + Natal/Herman O2.5 2 units to win 2.7 units
Gamburyan/Lentz O2.5 + Brown/Silva doesn't GTD + Not Cariaso ITD 2.5 units to win 2.15 units
Wineland + Lentz + Weichel/Green O2.5 2.5 units to win 3.4 units
Koch + Natal + Wineland + Tumenov + Lentz + Smolka/Cariaso O2.5 .5 units to win 3.5 units
Salas + Tumenov + Weichel/Green O2.5 + Not Cariaso ITD + Not Magny ITD 1.5 units to win 4.7 units
Weichel/Green O2.5 + Brown/Silva doesn't GTD + Not Magny ITD 2.5 units to win 2.45 units
Koch + Means + Salas + Lentz + Natal + Wineland + Natal + Weichel/Green O2.5 .5 units to win 7 units

I don't feel super-confident about these; not really feeling on this week. I also probably won't be able to watch the card live as I'll be traveling this weekend.

-12.6 units for the weekend.
This was like the last Brazil card. Crazy upsets and finishes galore. Matt Brown saved me from a much worse beating. Thank you Erick Silva bettors!

[MD]

Replying to post #69... Lol on the 69...

Yes Ed standing.. Oooooooops...

If you watched that fight and thought "man, if Ed Herman keeps this fight standing, he definitely wins", then... well, it speaks for itself, really.

5 months is when they show and really start suffering carrying around your ass...

[Jim_Gunn]

What a night of fights, eh? I had too many browser windows open with betting to follow along in the thread tonight but I hope you guys did okay. Almost all of my parlays busted with this crazy night of upsets but I hit some great prop bets at high odds, did good with live betting and most importantly Matt Brown came through in a big way. Very fun night of fights!

UFN 40 Results

Brown wins by TKO/KO (+310) $20.00 for $62.00= $62.00
Cruickshank wins by TKO/KO (+700) $10.00 for $70.00= $70.00
Magny wins by 3 round decision (+450) $10.00 for $45.00= $45.00
Palelei by Submission (+750) $9.99 for $74.93= -$9.99
Cariaso wins by 3 round decision (+215) $15.00 for $32.25= $32.25
Tumenov wins by 3 round decision (+175) $10.00 for $17.50= -$10.00
Albert Tumenov (-195) vs Anthony Lapsley $48.75 for $25.00= $25.00

Parlays:
Lorenz Larkin (-235) + Erik Koch (-350) $40.00 for $33.31= -$40.00
Tim Means (-260) + Soa Palelei (-230) $45.00 for $44.40= -$45.00
Louis Smolka (-130) + Rafael Natal (-140) $40.00 for $81.32= -$40.00
Yan Cabral (-370) + Eddie Wineland (-425) $40.00 for $22.77= -$40.00
Nik Lentz (-370) + Justin Salas (-245) $30.00 for $23.66= $23.66

Live Bets:
Matt Brown (+245) vs Erick Silva $50.00 for $122.50= $122.50
Matt Brown (+140) vs Erick Silva $50.00 for $70.00= $70.00
Philippou wins in round 1 (+1100) $10.00 for $110.00= $110.00
Neil Magny (+120) vs Tim Means $40.00 for $48.00= $48.00
Louis Smolka (-145) vs Chris Cariaso $145.00 for $100.00= -$145.00
Darrell Montague (+145) vs Kyoji Horiguchi $20.00 for $29.00= -$20.00
-----
Total Profit:= $258.42

[Das Jax]

Replying to post #69... Lol on the 69...

5 months is when they show and really start suffering carrying around your ass...

Hah, I thought you meant to make a joke about how everyone on these forums didn't quite go the gestational distance.

Brown and Magny alone put me up 14 units tonight... which really saved my bacon because I've been getting killed lately. Feels good to get a win.

[Vaughany]

How much is rent in Ireland?!

100 euros per month. MD lives in a suped up shed in Meath...the dial-up internet connection is sick tho!

[Beelzebubzy]

#haters


Gabe’s Recommended Play: Daron Cruickshank (+378) 3.4u to win 12.85u

I sent kalikas a 50 yesterday I hope he can afford to pay you

[Beelzebubzy]

All in all, MMAOB premium, (counting Bellator last night) goes 1-3 losing about 1.5 units in total on the night. Wish we'd bet more dogs

[Wilbo86]

My most profitable night to date... I won't fool myself by trying to take the credit for it though.

If we could all take a moment to thank the lord jesus christ for delivering us Matt Brows.

[Rubber Guard]

I think I missed Koch's last fight, but Rafaello Oliveria is a tin can.

My question is: why in the world is Koch such a big favorite here?

????????????????????

[Rubber Guard]

I think the Eduardo vs Wineland fight will be interesting. Eduardo is the Muay Thai coach for Jose Aldo & Renan Barao. Needless to say his stand up is pretty good. If Wineland decides not to use his wrestling then there is potential for an upset.

Why did you play Wineland at such a price if you thought it would be interesting???

[PunisherIND]

#haters


Gabe’s Recommended Play: Daron Cruickshank (+378) 3.4u to win 12.85u

Not bad. However, not as good as fading gaberz official parlay at +11500

[kornuts]

Regardless who you played, last nights card was better than any ppv card I've seen in years.

[Thor4140]

Still finished up enough to pay my rent for the year. How'd you do bro?

I thought u don't do that. U throw up a list of losers but somehow had a big night again. Its like clockwork

[marzwoody]

I thought u don't do that. U throw up a list of losers but somehow had a big night again. Its like clockwork

Didn't you know? even when MD posts losers and Nunya doesn't reveal his plays, there still winnerz

[JIBBBY]

Matt Brown and those body blows.. A day later and sober now.. Lol..

What I don't understand is when fighters hurt someone to the body, why don't they try harder to finish the fighter going back to the body and forget about the head? It's a no brainer!!! Knees to the body are legal on the ground also in MMA...

Hitting a guy with rapid weak punches to the head is only gonna give his body time to recover, especially if the guy has a good chin and the ref doesn't stop the fight as he's reasonably defending himself in the fetal position..

Being around the sport of MMA as long as I am - When you get hit good to the body - the body shuts down instantly and you shut down as a fighter period. You can try and play it off being mentally strong if not hurt too bad but deep in your gut you are crippled and really just trying to buy time to recover... If you get touched again in the mid section while recovering and even lightly you fold like a cheap siut and ball up... Touch that belly one more time and the fight is stopped for sure or the dude is tapping..

We don't see that play out too much in MMA and I don't understand why? An open face to be punched I guess is more tempting.. Bas Ruten preaches it all the time but nobody is paying any real attention I guess..

A good no stop for Matt Brown anyways early on in that fight...... He recovered and resumed kicking arse to win the bout.. Brown has arrived and is mentally tough now..

[Vaughany]

Rogan did a podcast with Callen and Schaub during the Fight Night... pretty funny how Rogan speaks to Callen like he's his little beta bitch! "Shut the fuuck up Bryan"!

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

Rogan did a podcast with Callen and Schaub during the Fight Night... pretty funny how Rogan speaks to Callen like he's his little beta bitch! "Shut the fuuck up Bryan"!

They talk about the betting lines during Koch/Detroit Superstar fight...straight away both Rogan and Schaub say the Cruickshank line is way off and Schaub says "whoever is setting these lines needs educating"! Rogan says "It's a guy who doesnt train"!!!

Just before Cruickshank lands the head-kick Rogan is talking about Aubrey Marcus (Onnit guy) betting on the fights when he comes to the events and how Rogan tells him to bet the house on certain fighters! (Tyron Woodley is mentioned!).

Rogan also finally realises that Erik Silva isnt a "kid" - he says he's 24 then checks and finds out he's actually 29! Just needs to realise that Frankie Edgar isnt a teenager now as well

[kornuts]

Matt Brown and those body blows.. A day later and sober now.. Lol..

What I don't understand is when fighters hurt someone to the body, why don't they try harder to finish the fighter going back to the body and forget about the head? It's a no brainer!!! Knees to the body are legal on the ground also in MMA...

Hitting a guy with rapid weak punches to the head is only gonna give his body time to recover, especially if the guy has a good chin and the ref doesn't stop the fight as he's reasonably defending himself in the fetal position..

Being around the sport of MMA as long as I am - When you get hit good to the body - the body shuts down instantly and you shut down as a fighter period. You can try and play it off being mentally strong if not hurt too bad but deep in your gut you are crippled and really just trying to buy time to recover... If you get touched again in the mid section while recovering and even lightly you fold like a cheap siut and ball up... Touch that belly one more time and the fight is stopped for sure or the dude is tapping..

We don't see that play out too much in MMA and I don't understand why? An open face to be punched I guess is more tempting.. Bas Ruten preaches it all the time but nobody is paying any real attention I guess..

A good no stop for Matt Brown anyways early on in that fight...... He recovered and resumed kicking arse to win the bout.. Brown has arrived and is mentally tough now..

Agree. The only other one I rember is overeem attacking lesnar's ribs after he was hurt

[Beelzebubzy]

I didnt know MD was in Cincinatti last week

[Bumdeal]

Crazy event. Cummings, Herman, and Cruickshank made my night. Larken, Means, and Silva made me sad. Rushing in for the sub on an opponent who you rocked is smart, but not when its to body shots. Should have let him up and worked him. Brown had all his faculties and was able to defend the sub. Tough call though considering Silva was waiting for his opportunity to take it to the ground but he should have recognized the situation. Make brown get right back up and defend those ribs.

Still can't believe Koch was up to -450 at one point. There were a lot of opportunities to make real money on Saturday night.
Good job whoever picked Brown. Huge night for upsets!

[brooks85]

They did a great job putting this card together.

The lines on this card were off and then after all the favorites got slammed, it was even better.

[MD]

I didnt know MD was in Cincinatti last week

I asked him to c'maaaaahn me, but I don't think he understood what I meant.

Must be a redneck thing.

[PunisherIND]

I asked him to c'maaaaahn me, but I don't think he understood what I meant.

Must be a redneck thing.

oye! i dont appreciate this gay twist you put on my catchphrase!

[PaperTrail07]

Larkin killed a 100:1 parlay for me......that ************ lol

[PaperTrail07]

Granted it was a 9$ lotto ticket and Brown was left...buuut come on Larkin ya penetrating bum Lost : 9.00--PAID 956.42...
#1) Wager Type : Spread
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : NBA Basketball / Game
Selection : San Antonio Spurs
Time : 5/10/2014 7:35:01PM - (PST)
Line : -2 +114
Game Notes : (ESPN) Playoffs - Conference Semifinals - Best of Seven (2-2-1-1-1) Spurs Lead Series 2-0

#2) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game
Selection : M. Brown
Time : 5/10/2014 9:25:01PM - (PST)
Line : +200
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 40 - Welterweight 5 rounds - U.S. Bank Arena - Cincinnati, Ohio - Fox Sports 1

#3) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Loss
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game
Selection : L. Larkin
Time : 5/10/2014 8:25:01PM - (PST)
Line : -250
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 40 - Middleweight 3 rounds - U.S. Bank Arena - Cincinnati, Ohio - Fox Sports 1

#4) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game
Selection : D. Cruickshank
Time : 5/10/2014 8:25:01PM - (PST)
Line : +295
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 40 - Lightweight 3 rounds - U.S. Bank Arena - Cincinnati, Ohio - Fox Sports 1

#5) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game
Selection : S. Palelei
Time : 5/10/2014 7:30:01PM - (PST)
Line : -350
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 40 - Heavyweight 3 rounds - U.S. Bank Arena - Cincinnati, Ohio - Fox Sports 1

#6) Wager Type : Money Line
Outcome : Win
Sport / Period : MMA Fighting / Game
Selection : C. Cariaso
Time : 5/10/2014 7:05:01PM - (PST)
Line : +135
Game Notes : UFC Fight Night 40 - Flyweight 3 rounds - U.S. Bank Arena - Cincinnati, Ohio - Fox Sports 1

[PaperTrail07]

6 teamer with only 2 favs and a -250 kills it SM penetrating H...

[Bumdeal]

ouch. sorry PT, that's rough when one of the larger favorites in your parlay is the one that sinks it.

[PaperTrail07]

[PaperTrail07]

Yeah...sucked all part of the game though lol