UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos 3 (October 19, 2013)

[rosietop]

Ya I did throw a lot on Jordan. But I'm using the units as 1% system, so it would hurt but wouldn't be devasting to my BR if Jordan loses.

ya thats ok, I would do what Luca Fury advises and put him in a 2 man parlay (maybe with Lombard or Kaufman) that way you reduce the possibility of wiping out a lot of your bankroll if Jordan loses. He had this in a video somewhere...

here 3:20

[Vaughany]

[Vaughany]

....

[OracleAdam]

Jordan here, said that he had short notice for the Kongo fight and not enough time to train, which is partially why he lost. Also that he's more experienced since that fight. I agree.

[Noleafclover]

Jordan beat Barry, Russow, and Big Johnson. They aren't the best, but better than who Gonzaga has beaten. Jordan showed some good ground work against Russow.

Ben Rothwell.

[Noleafclover]

Love to hear the case for Darrell Montague... Guess it'd have to be a lack of activity from the magi...?

[mmaed]

Jordan is good but gonzaga is just plain old dangerous. I would just take fight doesn't go the distance.

[mirinquads]

Jordan might be a trap, Way more athletic and probably better gas, but Gonzaga throws hay and can easily snatch a something if Jordan tries to get cute on the ground. Jordan likely takes it, but wouldnt bet him at these odds.

[Noleafclover]

Not seeing an event on UFC's youtube for the weighins. There's streams on some of the media outlets, but they don't have a countdown. When is it?

[Noleafclover]

Jordan is good but gonzaga is just plain old dangerous. I would just take fight doesn't go the distance.

Dunno, -350 doesn't seem that off the mark there, still the UFC, could see a hugfest happening occasionally, or a stalled ground game. Think I'd prefer the under 1.5 -150 if I was to take a total, you think we see a late finish c. 18% of the time? May be worth seeing too what fight doesn't starts round 3 comes up at.

[Noleafclover]

Offtopic, but I think perhaps the biggest reason I'd want to lay Tate would be to see if she always has that sneer on her face.

[NunyaBidness]

Not seeing an event on UFC's youtube for the weighins. There's streams on some of the media outlets, but they don't have a countdown. When is it?

5pm

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/10/watch-fridays-ufc-166-weigh-ins-live-on-mmajunkie-com-at-5-p-m-et

[NunyaBidness]

ya thats ok, I would do what Luca Fury advises and put him in a 2 man parlay (maybe with Lombard or Kaufman) that way you reduce the possibility of wiping out a lot of your bankroll if Jordan loses. He had this in a video somewhere...

Terrible advice, like all Luca advice.

If your straight-up bets would wipe out too much of your bankroll if they lose, then you are overbetting. If you are attempting to avoid that by betting parlays at less risk than you are likely underbetting.

Optimal parlay strategy would ALWAYS involve round-robining every possible combination of +EV plays, and nothing else. Combining A with B, specifically, and not with C or D is completely arbitrary.

[Noleafclover]

Terrible advice, like all Luca advice.

If your straight-up bets would wipe out too much of your bankroll if they lose, then you are overbetting. If you are attempting to avoid that by betting parlays at less risk than you are likely underbetting.

Optimal parlay strategy would ALWAYS involve round-robining every possible combination of +EV plays, and nothing else. Combining A with B, specifically, and not with C or D is completely arbitrary.

Reducing variance is valuable, if merely for your sanity. My bankroll could handle losing -350 (dodson), but wiping out half my profits for my first 3 months would surely suck. Though I'm sure its NBD to a volume bettor, my skills lie other directions. Maybe in a few years, I'll be good enough to lay volume, but I've had more success in my tests picking my spots.

And thanks.

[Educ8d Degener8]

So wait... Nunya.... Are u trying to tell me parlays aren't magic?!!!

[NunyaBidness]

Reducing variance is valuable, if merely for your sanity.

Betting parlays doesn't decrease your variance, it increases them, because you are effectively betting less than your optimal bet size on your initial wager, and larger than your optimal size on later legs.

That's why every dumbass makes these big parlays and then hedges the last leg.

[NunyaBidness]

So wait... Nunya.... Are u trying to tell me parlays aren't magic?!!!

Somebody once told me that there was no better way to turn a heap of matchsticks into a woodpile than with parlays.

I responded that matchsticks were the perfect analogy.

[NunyaBidness]

5pm

http://www.mmajunkie.com/news/2013/1...om-at-5-p-m-et

MMAjunkie is wrong its at 7pm

[Noleafclover]

MMAjunkie is wrong its at 7pm

No, its on now.

[Noleafclover]

Betting parlays doesn't decrease your variance, it increases them, because you are effectively betting less than your optimal bet size on your initial wager, and larger than your optimal size on later legs.

That's why every dumbass makes these big parlays and then hedges the last leg.

Coinflips have the least variance. Certainly not advocating large parlays. And I spose thats technically true, cause thats what would happen if you did a parlay manually, but doesn't it seem kinda arbitrary which happens first once you've played a parlay? Now you've got a single proposition, that both win, from the outside.

[NunyaBidness]

No, its on now.

Weird. local tv listing shows 7.

[NunyaBidness]

How did Lombard look?

[PunisherIND]

How did Lombard look?

if you stream from junkie you can rewind to the beginning.

my dvr was set to record at 7pm also.

[NunyaBidness]

if you stream from junkie you can rewind to the beginning.

my dvr was set to record at 7pm also.

Thanks, consigliere.

[Rubber Guard]

Weighed in at 169 and was smiling up a storm.

[PunisherIND]

sunken in cheeks

[NunyaBidness]

sunken in cheeks

Yeah, looked a lot better than I expected, but noticed that.

[Vaughany]

Dunno, -350 doesn't seem that off the mark there, still the UFC, could see a hugfest happening occasionally, or a stalled ground game. Think I'd prefer the under 1.5 -150 if I was to take a total, you think we see a late finish c. 18% of the time? May be worth seeing too what fight doesn't starts round 3 comes up at.

Nice, got it at -230, now -400. This feeling of success im having right now must be how a pro like Fury feels every time a wakes up (when he occassionaly sleeps once a week)

[PunisherIND]

[mirinquads]

Mirin Trapezius and stasch

[MD]

Jordan beat Barry, Russow, and Big Johnson. They aren't the best, but better than who Gonzaga has beaten. Jordan showed some good ground work against Russow.

[MD]

Coinflips have the least variance. Certainly not advocating large parlays. And I spose thats technically true, cause thats what would happen if you did a parlay manually, but doesn't it seem kinda arbitrary which happens first once you've played a parlay? Now you've got a single proposition, that both win, from the outside.

Not at all.

[Noleafclover]

Not at all.

I'll take it you're both not arguing the first sentence, which is the bulk of my argument, and meet you on your ground anyway.

So I parlay A and B, which happen in that order. I've now underplayed A and overplayed B. But the schedule changes. Well shit, now we have a drastically different situation, I've underplayed B and overplayed A. Unfortunately, win or lose, this drastic difference reflects 0 change in my bankroll.

[MD]

I'll take it you're both not arguing the first sentence, which is the bulk of my argument, and meet you on your ground anyway.

So I parlay A and B, which happen in that order. I've now underplayed A and overplayed B. But the schedule changes. Well shit, now we have a drastically different situation, I've underplayed B and overplayed A. Unfortunately, win or lose, this drastic difference reflects 0 change in my bankroll.

Except in terms of EG.

[Noleafclover]

Except in terms of EG.

I don't do EG calculations often, would it really show a difference? That'd be funny, and belie the name "expected gains."