UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos 3 (October 19, 2013)

MD · 10-18-13, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

I don't do EG calculations often, would it really show a difference? That'd be funny, and belie the name "expected gains."

It's "expected growth", and it's pretty much the only thing that matters. And yes, it would show a difference.

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-18-13, 10:57 PM

I think Gonzaga is gonna own

**TheCalculator** · 10-18-13, 10:59 PM

Interesting to see Diego on a heavy dose of "sauce". Hasn't been this ripped it years. The test should have him snapping in the ring tomorrow night.

**Noleafclover** · 10-19-13, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by MD

It's "expected growth", and it's pretty much the only thing that matters. And yes, it would show a difference.

But your bankroll wouldn't, win or lose, and you're fine with that I spose? Seems to have a pretty low correlation with what you can expect on that reading

MD · 10-19-13, 12:30 AM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

But your bankroll wouldn't, win or lose, and you're fine with that I spose? Seems to have a pretty low correlation with what you can expect on that reading

I'm not quite sure what you mean with your second sentence; in regards to your first, nope. Negative expectation is negative expectation. I'd rather bet optimally for both than overshoot one and undershoot the other.

This post should explain everything: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...l#post19905206

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 10-19-13, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by MD

It's "expected growth", and it's pretty much the only thing that matters. And yes, it would show a difference.

Agreed. Largest expected growth for me was in the final eliteXC event when the commissioner shook his head as Gina weighed in and she had to go straight for the towel.

Fairytales do come true.

**Noleafclover** · 10-19-13, 01:11 AM

Troll

**Vaughany** · 10-19-13, 03:08 AM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

So wait... Nunya.... Are u trying to tell me parlays aren't magic?!!!

surely not, he isnt tht dumb!

**Vaughany** · 10-19-13, 03:22 AM

lol highlight of the weigh-ins was Canchez's retarded angry face and chest pounding and also Rogan saying "Former LW Champion of Strikefarce, hmmm former LW Champion of Strikeforce...."!!!

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-13, 11:08 AM

Gunshard gonna Gunshard:

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/2628656-favorites-vs-underdogs.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**Sykes** · 10-19-13, 11:40 AM

Yous take this shit very serious. I do parlays for +bets! two I like tonight

KJ Noons/Kufman/not goes the distance in GG/Jordan @2.99 - trixie bet
Kufman/Cain/Over1.5 DC/Nelson was @3.09 I think - patent bet

GL tonight!

**Imsmarterthanu** · 10-19-13, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

lol highlight of the weigh-ins was Canchez's retarded angry face and chest pounding and also Rogan saying "Former LW Champion of Strikefarce, hmmm former LW Champion of Strikeforce...."!!!

Originally posted by Vaughany

lol highlight of the weigh-ins was Canchez's retarded angry face and chest pounding and also Rogan saying "Former LW Champion of Strikefarce, hmmm former LW Champion of Strikeforce...."!!!

for me the highlight was when Rogan stuck his hand out to Cain expecting him to shake it and Cain completely ignored him haha rogan fail

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-13, 02:26 PM

Guess the cat's out of the bag.

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/service-plays/2631366-mma-oddsbreakers.html

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**terpkeg** · 10-19-13, 03:48 PM

Why is Fili only -200? Just short notice.

Has anyone here actually taken Larsen?

**getlucky2win** · 10-19-13, 04:09 PM

Lol. Maybe furry Lucy mite b on Larsen. She the only cat I know that likes dogs

**terpkeg** · 10-19-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Why is Fili only -200? Just short notice.

Has anyone here actually taken Larsen?

Fili was putting on weight to fight at 170 lbs in Nov, but already in camp. Not sure if missing weight is a bad thing or a good thing

**Noleafclover** · 10-19-13, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by terpkeg

Why is Fili only -200? Just short notice.

Has anyone here actually taken Larsen?

Weight disparity is a little worrying, Larsen's the bigger fighter.

MD · 10-19-13, 04:36 PM

Larsen's underrated. Not even trolling. Didn't 'cap that particular fight though. Missed a few on this card.

**Noleafclover** · 10-19-13, 04:44 PM

All bets to win x units

Gonzaga +170 to win 2u
Cormier dec -160 1u
Boetsch -185 .5u
nelson KOotN +1200 x1.5u
Dodson -350 1u risk in an open 2slot parlay. w/ Kaufman -220 1u->.87u

Tempted on Velasquez, an that as fight of the night (+350). Lean Sanchez, Sot, but just now doing work on those.

Vel -192 .5u.

**NunyaBidness** · 10-19-13, 05:00 PM

Prelims:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipyjH8Dh6Vo

**rocky16** · 10-19-13, 05:12 PM

4 units Velasquez
.5 unit Velasquez by tko/ko
1.5 units DC by decision
.5 unit Sanchez
1 unit Jordan
.25 unit Montague
.5 unit dolloway
1unit Lombard
1 unit noons

Suck me hard focking jooboys

**Dwil125** · 10-19-13, 05:28 PM

anyone else take the opener on sanchez/Melendez Fotn? Hopefully the main event ends early

**Crassus** · 10-19-13, 05:29 PM

Got money on Gonzaga by sub, KJ Noons, Tim Boetsch, and JDS. Provodnikov in boxing but that's besides the point.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 05:30 PM

this asian is crazy

**Noleafclover** · 10-19-13, 05:33 PM

Knew I shoulda taken haraigoshi.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 05:33 PM

best ground and pound from an asian i've ever seen

**richie360** · 10-19-13, 05:37 PM

Exciting fighter! He looked so much smaller than Pague to!!!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 05:46 PM

god damn, great fight

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 05:52 PM

impressive

**richie360** · 10-19-13, 05:52 PM

Things can only get worse in this card!! What an amazing couple of opening fights!! Jeremy Larsen's face is a mess!!!

**Rubber Guard** · 10-19-13, 06:09 PM

Cucuy time

**Rubber Guard** · 10-19-13, 06:13 PM

GABE was penetrating right!!!

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 06:16 PM

awsome

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-19-13, 06:35 PM

TJ is dead

**Grabaka** · 10-19-13, 06:36 PM

Yeeeeeeeeeeee penetrating adlan!!!!!