UFC 166: Velasquez Vs Dos Santos 3 (October 19, 2013)

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  • OracleAdam
    SBR Hustler
    • 09-28-13
    • 63

    #141
    Originally posted by NunyaBidness
    So, if they're young you've gotta bet on em because they're going to improve, but if they're old you gotta bet em because its for the love of the sport.

    The only reason to bet Sot in this spot is because Noons managed to make Couture look competitive.
    No, I've just seen spots where old guys make a comeback unexpectedly. Like Vanderlei beating Stann, and Hardy winning in his last fight after losing 4 in a row. It's like the UFC gives them a fight that's designed for them to win. I'm not betting either way.
    Comment
    • Thor4140
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-09-08
      • 22296

      #142
      Originally posted by Vaughany
      not necessarily, what if he's had to cut 20lbs in the previous 3 days?
      u and ur MMA math
      Comment
      • MD
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 01-31-12
        • 9728

        #143
        Originally posted by Vaughany
        not necessarily, what if he's had to cut 20lbs in the previous 3 days?
        If he's cut 20lbs in three days, days out from weigh-in, then yeah, he'll have a relatively simple time with the last 9lbs, unless he's dangerously off-schedule. I'd be more worried if he cut 9lbs in three days and was left with 20lbs to cut. That's assuming he cuts like 40 lbs to make 170 though.
        Comment
        • DoYouNotGetIT
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 09-25-13
          • 529

          #144
          Agreed Cain wins by forcing takedowns and not engaging in stand-up. Heavyweight division is the PED division (whole sport is on it, but any contender in the HW division is on PEDs). Back in the day there were no huge heavyweights like now. The biggest heavyweight was Ricco Rodriguez. The bigger heavyweights lost to Rodriguez or the rest of the LHW division (Couture, Coleman, and so on). Fedor wasn't even a big heavyweight and Ricco Rodriguez was bigger than Fedor (bigger not better).

          UFC 166: Roy Nelson and Diego Sanchez only one will probably lose. At +450 and +550. $100 bet on both wins you 350, 450, or 1150. Bet Cain to win as a insurance policy if both those fighters lose. Sanchez is moving down in weight which just for that shouldn't be +550 and Roy Nelson is a crafty veteran therefore he knows every trick to beat a better fighter.

          UFC 167: Rashad Evans is done with fighting. After his wife left him this guy crumbled. He was literally on that 24/7 for UFC and had no furniture in his house. I mean the house was empty and he wasn't planning on buying furniture. 2 out of the last 3 fights Evans has lost and if he fought Henderson 3 years ago he would have dominated him instead won by Split Decision. BET Chael Sonnan +125.

          Take Josh Koscheck over Tyron Woodley. Koscheck is a NCAA champion wrestler while Woodley has gotten beat by wrestlers. Odds are not out yet.

          UFC 168: For a lottery shot throw money at Miesha Tate +650. Women MMA Champions don't care about MMA and look for other things besides MMA. Ronda Rousey went Hollywood and is appearing in movies.

          JUST ADDED MY WRITE UP FROM ANOTHER POST!
          Comment
          • sideloaded
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-21-10
            • 7561

            #145
            Originally posted by DoYouNotGetIT
            Agreed Cain wins by forcing takedowns and not engaging in stand-up. Heavyweight division is the PED division (whole sport is on it, but any contender in the HW division is on PEDs). Back in the day there were no huge heavyweights like now. The biggest heavyweight was Ricco Rodriguez. The bigger heavyweights lost to Rodriguez or the rest of the LHW division (Couture, Coleman, and so on). Fedor wasn't even a big heavyweight and Ricco Rodriguez was bigger than Fedor (bigger not better).

            UFC 166: Roy Nelson and Diego Sanchez only one will probably lose. At +450 and +550. $100 bet on both wins you 350, 450, or 1150. Bet Cain to win as a insurance policy if both those fighters lose. Sanchez is moving down in weight which just for that shouldn't be +550 and Roy Nelson is a crafty veteran therefore he knows every trick to beat a better fighter.

            UFC 167: Rashad Evans is done with fighting. After his wife left him this guy crumbled. He was literally on that 24/7 for UFC and had no furniture in his house. I mean the house was empty and he wasn't planning on buying furniture. 2 out of the last 3 fights Evans has lost and if he fought Henderson 3 years ago he would have dominated him instead won by Split Decision. BET Chael Sonnan +125.

            Take Josh Koscheck over Tyron Woodley. Koscheck is a NCAA champion wrestler while Woodley has gotten beat by wrestlers. Odds are not out yet.

            UFC 168: For a lottery shot throw money at Miesha Tate +650. Women MMA Champions don't care about MMA and look for other things besides MMA. Ronda Rousey went Hollywood and is appearing in movies.

            JUST ADDED MY WRITE UP FROM ANOTHER POST!
            If you are going to play tate ( i wouldnt she has shown that her win against coenen was a fluke) I would just play tate by sub. Tate has bad cardio and zero knock out power. Only way she wins is by freak RNC
            Comment
            • Vaughany
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 03-07-10
              • 45563

              #146
              Originally posted by Thor4140
              u and ur MMA math
              que?
              Comment
              • Vaughany
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 03-07-10
                • 45563

                #147
                Originally posted by OracleAdam
                No, I've just seen spots where old guys make a comeback unexpectedly. Like Vanderlei beating Stann, and Hardy winning in his last fight after losing 4 in a row. It's like the UFC gives them a fight that's designed for them to win. I'm not betting either way.
                Hardy was hardly an old guy, he was 29!
                Comment
                • sideloaded
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-21-10
                  • 7561

                  #148
                  eye really seems to be focusing on the fight

                  Jessica Eye ‏@jessicaevileye 9h Good morning my awesome tweet friends.I am look for a locate limo service for about 15/20 people for Saturday night for my peeps in Houston


                  Comment
                  • Imsmarterthanu
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-02-12
                    • 1878

                    #149
                    Cain already has the keys to beat JDS it's timing and pace, JDS doesn't like a really fast paced fight because he can't get his shots off in time, it's gonna be a lot of the same like the 2nd fight but JDS always has that one strike ko chance. Just from what you see this fight is like an evolved version of Fedor vs Cro Cop
                    Comment
                    • OracleAdam
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 09-28-13
                      • 63

                      #150
                      Originally posted by Vaughany
                      Hardy was hardly an old guy, he was 29!
                      True, but it's just an example of an MMA fighter who everyone thought was good at one point, but then got down on his luck losing a lot of fights in a row, and made a comeback win. Some people thought Sotiropoulis was a title contender at one point. I don't think Nunes ever was.
                      Comment
                      • DoYouNotGetIT
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 09-25-13
                        • 529

                        #151
                        Also forgot to add Roy Nelson is in the same boat as Jon Fitch. Dana White doesn't like him so his career and contract pay is on the line every fight.
                        Last edited by DoYouNotGetIT; 10-17-13, 07:08 PM.
                        Comment
                        • dww123
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 07-06-11
                          • 441

                          #152
                          Originally posted by DoYouNotGetIT
                          Also forgot to add Roy Nelson is in the same boat as Jon Fitch. Dana White doesn't like him so his career and contract is on the line every fight.
                          Nelson just signed a 9 fight contract
                          Comment
                          • DoYouNotGetIT
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 09-25-13
                            • 529

                            #153
                            Originally posted by dww123
                            Nelson just signed a 9 fight contract
                            Didn't know. Still can be cut by Dana White though.
                            Comment
                            • OracleAdam
                              SBR Hustler
                              • 09-28-13
                              • 63

                              #154
                              Originally posted by DoYouNotGetIT
                              Didn't know. Still can be cut by Dana White though.
                              Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                              Comment
                              • sideloaded
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-21-10
                                • 7561

                                #155
                                Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                                you can be cut for almost any reason.

                                What is this sherdog?
                                Comment
                                • NunyaBidness
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 07-26-09
                                  • 9345

                                  #156
                                  Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                  Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                                  You don't really think UFC contracts work like that, do you?
                                  Comment
                                  • DoYouNotGetIT
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 09-25-13
                                    • 529

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                    Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                                    Are you that stupid that you cannot be cut with a contract? UFC contracts are like NFL contracts and I guarantee he can be cut.
                                    Comment
                                    • OracleAdam
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 09-28-13
                                      • 63

                                      #158
                                      Originally posted by NunyaBidness
                                      You don't really think UFC contracts work like that, do you?
                                      OK, enlighten me. Who has gotten cut in the UFC that was in a contract who didn't break the rules?
                                      Comment
                                      • OracleAdam
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 09-28-13
                                        • 63

                                        #159
                                        I also don't think the UFC ever cuts fighters who won their last fight. Unless they break the rules (like holding onto a submission too long).
                                        Comment
                                        • Thor4140
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-09-08
                                          • 22296

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                          Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                                          Comment
                                          • PunisherIND
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-24-11
                                            • 4980

                                            #161
                                            Originally posted by sideloaded
                                            you can be cut for almost any reason.

                                            What is this sherdog?
                                            lol wasnt jon fitch cut for refusing to give zuffa the rights to his image for the video game?
                                            Comment
                                            • sideloaded
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-21-10
                                              • 7561

                                              #162
                                              Originally posted by PunisherIND
                                              lol wasnt jon fitch cut for refusing to give zuffa the rights to his image for the video game?
                                              not just fitch, the entire aka gym was cut for a few days including anyone signed with bob cook and zenkin entertainment.
                                              Comment
                                              • Vaughany
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 03-07-10
                                                • 45563

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                                Huh? Do you know what a contract is? (Sorry, people give me shit on this board so I have to dish it out too )
                                                Lmaooooooo

                                                Do you know what a Dana White is?
                                                Comment
                                                • Vaughany
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                  • 45563

                                                  #164
                                                  Zuffa has the right to terminate this contract if the fighter breaks any of the previous contract terms. But that's not the only thing that makes this document potentially null and void—you can also be fired for losing a fight.
                                                  So, all those UFC contracts that claim to be for eight or 10 fights? That's only true if you keep winning. Otherwise, the contract is only as long as the UFC wants it to be.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Vaughany
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                    • 45563

                                                    #165
                                                    A contract also has a vague and subjective statement like this (so Dana can pretty much cut somebody whenever he likes if in his opinion they are not fighting to what he deems "the best of their ability"!):

                                                    ARTICLE XIII
                                                    REPRESENTATIONS AND WARRANTIES

                                                    Fighter represents and warrants to ZUFFA that:

                                                    a. Fighter shall prepare and honestly compete to the best of Fighter's ability in the
                                                    Bout and that there is no impairment to Fighter doing so;



                                                    Comment
                                                    • Noleafclover
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-06-13
                                                      • 1349

                                                      #166
                                                      Contracts often favor companies, shocker. About the fights doe...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Wanna Bet On It?
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 11-17-11
                                                        • 1032

                                                        #167
                                                        Oracles are too busy predicting past events to read legalese. Oracles hire Pun for dat.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Vaughany
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 45563

                                                          #168
                                                          Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                                          I also don't think the UFC ever cuts fighters who won their last fight. Unless they break the rules (like holding onto a submission too long).
                                                          He cut Riddle and Mills after their fight just because it was so damn bad and both were awful! (regardless of Riddle testing positive for weed or whatever)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • MD
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 01-31-12
                                                            • 9728

                                                            #169
                                                            Originally posted by OracleAdam
                                                            OK, enlighten me. Who has gotten cut in the UFC that was in a contract who didn't break the rules?
                                                            Good God.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • OracleAdam
                                                              SBR Hustler
                                                              • 09-28-13
                                                              • 63

                                                              #170
                                                              Obviously fighters have to do their job if they are in a contract. If you have a contract with a corporation, and you take breaks all the time and don't do your job, you are in breach of the contract. Overall though, I think the UFC and Dana have done the right things regarding fighters and their contracts. But if you guys don't think so, it's all good!

                                                              Moving on, here are my picks for UFC 166 and why:

                                                              1. Jordan (-200) over Gonzaga: Risking 11 units to win 5.5.
                                                              Jordan wins inside distance (-120): Risking 1 unit to win .75.
                                                              Jordan wins in round 1 (+175): Risking 1 unit to win 1.75 units.
                                                              Jordan wins by submission (+3150): 1 unit to win 31.5 units.

                                                              Jordan is my favorite bet of the night. I think the line is underestimating Jordan. With his superior power, speed, and endurance over Gonzaga, he should run him over. I don't think Gonzaga is better than Jordan in any area, and won't be able to outmanuever him on the ground for a submission. This is also an example of a fighter who is relatively new to the game improving as he learns more and is more comfortable with it. Jordan is on his way up, with his last 2 wins (including a first round KO of Barry) while Gonzaga is aging, has been in the game a long time and is on his way down. Gonzaga hasn't ever beaten anyone good, with the exception of an aging Cro Cop. He lost a one sided affair with Schaub, who, similar to Jordan, was an NFL pro who turned to MMA and was inexperienced.

                                                              2. Kaufman (-210) over Eye: 5 units to win 2.5

                                                              I wasn't going to bet on this one because I like Jessica Eye, but after reading some comments on here and doing some research, I think it's a good bet on Kaufman. Eye didn't look so dominant in her last decision win. Kaufman has more experience than Eye, but is still young and hungry at 28. Eye had an impressive first round victory over Zoila, but that might make her look better than she is. Zoila hasn't beaten any really tough females in her career, even though she was the Bellator champion at one point.

                                                              3. Lombard (-160) over Marquardt: 2 units to win 1.7.

                                                              Lombard is moving down a weight class which could either be an advantage or a disadvantage, but is usually an advantage. Marquardt hasn't looked too good lately with his back to back losses while spending the whole fights standing up. The standup game is Lombard's bread and butter, so it's likely superior to Marquardt's. Unless Marquardt can continually take Lombard down (which isn't Marquardt's normal MO), Lombard should be able to outstrike him.

                                                              4. Melendez by 3 round decision (-160): 4 units to win 2.5.

                                                              -160 to win by decision is a much better line than the -800 on 5 Dimes for Melendez to just win. Both Sanchez and Melendez have the majority of their fights ending in decision. Melendez has finished fighters but only when he is much better than they are. I think Sanchez is good enough to hold his own against Melendez for 3 rounds without getting finished. From watching interviews, it seems like Sanchez has trained hard for this fight and is ready for a war.

                                                              5. Cormier by 3 round decision (-150): 2 units to win 1.3.

                                                              Cormier played it safe against Mir to grind out a decision, and I think he'll do the same against Big Country. 4 of Cormier's last 6 fights have gone to decision. As Cormier is losing weight to move to light heavyweight, he has to lose some muscle, which will make his striking not as hard. Nelson has a tough chin and has only been KOed once in 2008, and was able to go the distance with Dos Santos.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Vaughany
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 03-07-10
                                                                • 45563

                                                                #171
                                                                Jordan was in NFL!?

                                                                who has jordan beaten if gonzaga hasnt beaten anybody good?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • mmaed
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 11-25-11
                                                                  • 1327

                                                                  #172
                                                                  Jordan is not better than gonzaga on the ground btw.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • rosietop
                                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                                    • 09-08-13
                                                                    • 200

                                                                    #173
                                                                    here he goes again throwing a million units on a favorite. Dude what happens if he loses, your whole night (just like last week) is in the negative..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • OracleAdam
                                                                      SBR Hustler
                                                                      • 09-28-13
                                                                      • 63

                                                                      #174
                                                                      Originally posted by Vaughany
                                                                      Jordan was in NFL!?

                                                                      who has jordan beaten if gonzaga hasnt beaten anybody good?
                                                                      Jordan beat Barry, Russow, and Big Johnson. They aren't the best, but better than who Gonzaga has beaten. Jordan showed some good ground work against Russow.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • OracleAdam
                                                                        SBR Hustler
                                                                        • 09-28-13
                                                                        • 63

                                                                        #175
                                                                        Originally posted by rosietop
                                                                        here he goes again throwing a million units on a favorite. Dude what happens if he loses, your whole night (just like last week) is in the negative..
                                                                        Ya I did throw a lot on Jordan. But I'm using the units as 1% system, so it would hurt but wouldn't be devasting to my BR if Jordan loses.
                                                                        Comment
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