Then how do you explain in that Gustafsson's head is clearly bigger in that photo, but when they're doing the staredown, Jones' head looks bigger? The only explanation is that Gustafsson is closer to the camera than Jon is in the first pic. There is literally no other explanation, so this is pretty easy to figure out.
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I agree with Jones ITD not being a good play, but I still think he will win this fight rather easily.
Their defense is on completely different levels. Gustafsson is very hittable vs other strikers while Jones has exceptional defense even against fellow strikers. That, along with the reach, will be the difference. Jones will methodically out-point Gus for 5 rounds and pick up a decision. Only way I see a finish is if Gus gasses and gets subbed.
Jones by decision at +500 is worth a play, IMO. Won't be a main bet for me since I hate prop, as they're very hard to hit, but I already threw some cash on it. Actually, I should probably give that out as an official free pick before the line moves.Comment -
here is a gif, arms look close to me
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Solid break down. but if Jones does do the rashad game plan, I wonder about his pace. Alex seems to set a slighty higher pace. Jones was in complete control for all his 5 rnd fights and seems to gas a little against shogun. I wonder if Alex can set his pace for 5 rds what Jones looks like deep in the fight.Comment -
I also should point out that I think Gus' power is way overrated. He's only TKO'd glass jaws like Hamman and Matyushenko. Thiago Silva's chin sucks too but Gus couldn't even finish him -- he only scored a knockdown early.
Jones doesn't have much power either. Couldn't T/KO suspect chins. Only way I see a stoppage is doctor or sub, but I think the fight will be standing, like I said earlier.
I found that GIF as well and even looked at it frame by frame after downloading it, but there is never a good shot of the arms. They are always bent.
An 8" reach advantage is 4" for each arm, so the only way to see a difference that small is to have both of their arms straight and (truly) side by side.Comment -
Rocky16 once taught me a move where you exert your alpha studness, causing the cacks of all those around you to shrivel up like plantains being picked in the hot summer sun by some gringo fock. 90% chance he taught it to Gustafsson and Jones' whole body shrank.
You've done it again you magnificent bastard.Comment -
Jones by decision is now only +350. Gave it out at +500 and it immediately dropped 150 cents even though it was the middle of the night. It didn't help that I hit it multiple times.Comment -
I also like the over 2.5 at +115. Even if Jones by decision loses, I think the over 2.5 still hits. I risked 3 units (standard sized play) on each so if that were to happen it'd be 1-1 for +0.45 units. I think they they both probably hi, though, for a total of 6 units risked to win 18.45.
Of course props are still hard to hit since there are so many possible outcomes, but I'll still have multiple other plays so even if these lose it won't decide my night. That's why I usually stay away from then, but this is low risk, extremely high reward on 2 props at plus money that I think should both hit more often than not.Comment -
The people moving their lines right now are either noobs or are lazy. Jones wins by decision and fight goes the distance period are both +350. Also, they usually move even more than that after multiple max bets. I expected it to drop to +300 or below, especially with the way they over move lines. Probably will drop below +300 when the daytime crew comes in, unless they start getting action the other way.Comment -
Let's not forget it took Jones 4 rounds to stop an undersized, completely gassed middleweight in Vitor Belfort. Before that fight, he took the weak chinned Rashad Evans to a 5 round decision in what was a horrible style matchup for Rashad. He also took a past-his-prime Rampage 4 rounds and only got the finish after he gassed.
Sure, he finished Chael in the first round last fight but that was another middleweight and one who is notorious quitter who did just that in the fight -- turtled up and quit for no reason.
Now he faces Gustafsson who unlike any of those guys is in his prime at his natural weightclass, and he's tougher with a better chin than all of them besides Rampage. I just don't see this ending inside the distance, or at least not before 2.5 rounds.
Although with props it seems like the sharp, logical plays hardly win. I try not to bet them too much because of this, but hopefully it works out.Comment -
Gustafsson hasn't actually been taken down by conventional double legs, although Diabate might have I can't remember what happened in that fight. Gustaffson actually took down Phil Davis, and Davis got top position and beat him in the scramble. Te Huna took Gustaffson down by a sacrificial throw type thing, where he used his body weight to pull Gustaffson down.
Jones comes across as having an extremely weird mind, but he also has a high fight IQ, so I assume he's noticed this. He said he knew Vera would be confident in the clinch because of how well he did against Randy, and Jones still made Vera fly. Jones' is pretty judoish so I think he should figure out some way to drag Gustaffson down if he wants to, although it may be Jones and Te Huna have different body mechanics so that Jones is unable to drag Gustaffson down in the same way.
Anyway, on the ground Jones should be able to force a stoppage. I'll probably just play Jones straight, but very small at these odds.Comment -
You'd have to assume there's an order of magniftude of difference between Vitor's defence on the ground and Gustafsson though. Gustafsson was subbed pretty easy way back when by Davis. Obviously Gustafsson would have skills on the ground, but unlikely to be on the same level as Vitor, who is difficult to stop by GNP unless you're Jones or Couture. And Vitor is very difficult to sub.
I've mentioned this before, but Vitor actually thinks lying down when he gasses and such is a strategic move. When he broke his hand on Saku's head, he lay down the whole fight trying to sweep Saku, and seemed surprised he didn't earn the decision. He also lay down against Jones to 'work his jiu jitsu'.Comment -
In all fairness, all the Jones' opponents you mentioned here are pretty much all in their own right, the quality of opponents Gustafsson hasn't even faced. Besides perhaps Phil Davis (but that's a fight he lost) and Shogun/Thiago, both of whom are pretty shot.
I just really really don't see anything overtly special in Gustafsson. I'm going to make a guess that Bones will trip/td him pretty much at will.Comment -
You could say I only use a 1-3 unit scale for props, as I've never bet one for more than 3u ever. Like how many people use different unit scales for different sports. Props are so different than moneylines, they're like a different sport to me.
This is because props are so hard to get a proper read on. If this was a moneyline, I would bet it as a 5 unit max play, as that would make sense considering the value. But for props I am much more careful.
They are FAR more volatile than moneylines since there are tons of outcomes rather than just 2 possibilities, and it seems like they have a high "fluke" rate. Meaning results that you would cap as having a severely minimal chance seem to happen quite frequently. This is the reason I try to stay away from props for the most part and when I do happen to bet them, I never bet as much on them. There are so many props that appear to have insane value, but hit so infrequently, that they are losing longterm bets. That's just the nature of them, so I am extra careful and never bet them for more than 3u.Last edited by Luca Fury; 09-06-13, 06:10 AM.Comment -
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Yeah, it's real easy to post an 8-0 record on a bunch of huge plus money props AFTER the fights are over. LOL… you're such a joke. No one give a shit and no one believes you unless you post them before the event.
Hey guys, I went 100-0 the last week on props, all at +500 or more. I didn't document these plays anywhere, so you'll just have to trust me
Last edited by Luca Fury; 09-06-13, 07:30 AM.Comment -
Plekz spent forever arguing that Shogun would beat Chael. Argued with anyone who dared to suggest that there was value on Chael. Chael wins, Plekz had no money on Shogun.Yeah, it's real easy to post an 8-0 record on a bunch of huge plus money props AFTER the fights are over. LOL… you're such a joke. No one give a shit and no one believes you unless you post them before the event.
Hey guys, I went 100-0 the last week on props, all at +500 or more. I didn't document these plays anywhere, so you'll just have to trust me
Plekz spent forever arguing that Ellenberger would beat Rory Mac. Argued with anyone who dared to suggest that there was value on Rory Mac. Rory Mac wins, and Plekz... had money on Rory Mac by decision.
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Yeah, it's real easy to post an 8-0 record on a bunch of huge plus money props AFTER the fights are over. LOL… you're such a joke. No one give a shit and no one believes you unless you post them before the event.
Hey guys, I went 100-0 the last week on props, all at +500 or more. I didn't document these plays anywhere, so you'll just have to trust me
<----- Here's my dick...stare at it. cool.Comment -
Not to mention, even if you do post screens for them, that still doesn't mean anything. You could have bet 50 props and gone 8-42 for a huge loss but are only pointing out the 8 that you won on. So again, bragging about bets that you won after the event when you never said a single play pre-event means nothing. Every time you HAVE said a play pre-event, it's lost miserably. But what a coincidence that the plays you don't post go 8-0, LOL……
I'm 7-0 on MLB this week for huge profit. And by 7-0 I mean 7-7 for a slight loss but am leaving out the losses. Want me to post screen grabs? I'll just crop out all the losses and only post pics of the wins. I should do this for all bets from now on so I can act like I hit 100% on all sportsLast edited by Luca Fury; 09-06-13, 07:49 AM.Comment -
Or you can post your plays then make up the record anyway and say you went 18-1!Yeah, it's real easy to post an 8-0 record on a bunch of huge plus money props AFTER the fights are over. LOL… you're such a joke. No one give a shit and no one believes you unless you post them before the event.
Hey guys, I went 100-0 the last week on props, all at +500 or more. I didn't document these plays anywhere, so you'll just have to trust meComment -
yeah meant to add that this method of posting plays and reviewing is known as "The Gaberz Criterion"Comment
