UFC on FUEL 10 (June 08, 2013)

[Sacrelicious]

I'm probably just going to play NOT goes distance. They're both bangers. Odds are high someone's going DOWN.

-260 is not a bad price for that.

[MD]

Let's discuss T. Silva for R. Cavalcante -- I'm a bit surprised everyone's on Rafael.

Of course he's extremely powerful -- but he's VERY slow. I think Silva has a good chance of beating him on speed and aggression alone.

What?!

I think you must be mistaken. Silva is the big, roided up Brazilian maniac, and Cavalcante is the-...

Well, either way, Cavalcante should have a big speed edge. Am I missing something here? I'm almost tempted to go back and watch some more footage on Cavalcante to see if I missed something. I honestly thought he'd be considerably faster than Silva. Hope you're wrong for my sake.

[Hannibal]

cavalcante is faster, but he's not that much faster that i see him getting off his shots without getting tagged as well
silva has managed to hit faster guys
he almost had rashad, and landed some nice shots on gustaffson as well
so basically both of them are going to get hit a lot, and i think silva is tougher. value with silva

[MD]

cavalcante is faster, but he's not that much faster that i see him getting off his shots without getting tagged as well
silva has managed to hit faster guys
he almost had rashad, and landed some nice shots on gustaffson as well
so basically both of them are going to get hit a lot, and i think silva is tougher. value with silva

Do you not feel as if Cavalcante's understanding of the striking game will give him the edge when it comes to ratio of strikes landed, though? Silva comes straight forward and never changes angles; he always enters straight forward and exits straight back. Cavalcante probably hits harder but I doubt it matters as either guy can put the other to sleep. I'd assume Silva's chin is better, but Cavalcante is infinitely more diverse and I expect him to frustrate Silva immensely with his kicks and knees. I think Silva doesn't have a good mind for striking and his go-to tactic will always be to throw bombs and hope one lands. I personally think Feijao is a great bet here.

[Hannibal]

cavalcante certainly looks the more polished and versatile of the two, but i think you have to look at the effectiveness
other than machida, who is somethng special, silva has been dangerous with his standing strkes in every fight
i used to think silva was a bit of a bum with limited striking, but he has proved me wrong
i went big on gus, and didnt expect gus to get hit as much as he did
also thought rashad would steam him and was surprised he had him on rollerskates
these are no fluke. silva has shown that he can land his simple strikes even on high level guys with greater speed advantage than rafael

[MD]

cavalcante certainly looks the more polished and versatile of the two, but i think you have to look at the effectiveness
other than machida, who is somethng special, silva has been dangerous with his standing strkes in every fight
i used to think silva was a bit of a bum with limited striking, but he has proved me wrong
i went big on gus, and didnt expect gus to get hit as much as he did
also thought rashad would steam him and was surprised he had him on rollerskates
these are no fluke. silva has shown that he can land his simple strikes even on high level guys with greater speed advantage than rafael

While I agree that it's easy to underestimate Silva, I think that Gus's defence isn't particularly great; he relies on his chin in a similar way to JDS, in that it is practically made of iron and nothing short of a gunshot wound is going to hurt him. Rashad obviously has poor defence, especially at that point in his career. Good example of a fighter who gets by while making a laundry basket full of technical errors by using his insane athleticism. I do think he's been effective standing against almost everyone he's fought, but most of the guys he's fought haven't been of Feijao's calibre. Still, it is a winnable fight for Silva, and I'll certainly be on the edge of my seat.

[TheCalculator]

I think Cavalcante has decent timing and has explosive spurts. But his footwork is very poor. He pretty much stands in the same spot and swings his arms. Silva will circle around him and try to pick his spots.

I do think essentially they have the same style. They will trade leather and push each against the cage. I think Cavalcante has more power and has a better chance of getting the KO.

I do think the line is pretty sharp and I don't really see much value except on the under.

[TheCalculator]

Just another tool in the tool box: http://hosteddb.fightmetric.com/fights/index/4355

[MD]

^ I find Fightmetric unreliable for my purposes because I don't think their stats are accurate.

[MD]

I think Cavalcante has decent timing and has explosive spurts. But his footwork is very poor. He pretty much stands in the same spot and swings his arms. Silva will circle around him and try to pick his spots.

I do think essentially they have the same style. They will trade leather and push each against the cage. I think Cavalcante has more power and has a better chance of getting the KO.

I do think the line is pretty sharp and I don't really see much value except on the under.

Yup, confirmed for troll.

[Vaughany]

Ha yee, Thiago is one of the most flatfooted guys in the division!

[Crassus]

Feijao is the man. Dude has great power (watch the Hendo fight, he fuckin drops Hendo), amazing TDD (King Mo fight and Blackhouses TDD coach), and good striking fundamentals.

I'm avoiding the bet because I'm a huge Feijao fan and I don't think I'll be able to think about it really objectively, but I can't see Thiago Silva beating Feijao. For one, Thiago has an incredible back injury that he fights through every time. You can see the difference between beastmode Thiago (up to the Machida fight) and Thiago with back injury. Not to mention he's a blackzilian not named Vitor so instantly add +100 to whatever odds he has.

[Rubber Guard]

Feijao should win, he is better. The price seems accurate though. Loved Feijao at that opening -150, -160 line.

[Beelzebubzy]

Cena breto assuncao at 110

[omalley21]

Henry hooft improved thiago's standup quite a bit recently. I like Feijao but I dont think its gonna be that easy.

[Dwil125]

odds out

[Dwil125]

played ronny markes/Derek Brunson ov 2.5 -260

[ArchieUD]

BFO and Fightbetnetwork still list Erick Silva ITD at -155 @5D, but when I log into my account 5D has it listed at -170. Same for everyone else?

[goodfellas433]

BFO and Fightbetnetwork still list Erick Silva ITD at -155 @5D, but when I log into my account 5D has it listed at -170. Same for everyone else?

Yes, and I took it fairly large at those odds. I would be really shocked if Silva doesnt put him away itd....
He is hoping to make a big statement.

[Dwil125]

Yeah it was -155 last night though, now its -170. I threw a little on the tko/ko line also, high has good bjj Im not sure if he gets subbed..

[PunisherIND]

Yeah it was -155 last night though, now its -170. I threw a little on the tko/ko line also, high has good bjj Im not sure if he gets subbed..

the thing that worries me about tko prop is silva could rock him, and then go for a choke. bjj doesnt work as well if youre on phag street.

edit: that said, i was very tempted to play tko at +210.

[TheCalculator]

Yup, confirmed for troll.

HA! Oh my goodness! The accusations fly!

For the record -- I think Cavalcante wins. Just don't see any value. I'll probably play it LIVE afterI see how they both move during the fight.

[mirinquads]

How good are Neto's takedowns? Smith was doing pretty damn good against Gracie until he was taken down in a strange way. Im mostly looking at the over here, which is decent plus money, and thinking Smith might just survive til he's getting something snapped up. Doubt he will last the whole fight though, unless he can knock Neto out.

[Grabaka]

From what i saw they werent good but my bro just told me to hold on cos they are pretty good. Too late.

[Grabaka]

The second one on Falcao was pretty good indeed. But hes tired as penetrate.

[NunyaBidness]

How good are Neto's takedowns? Smith was doing pretty damn good against Gracie until he was taken down in a strange way. Im mostly looking at the over here, which is decent plus money, and thinking Smith might just survive til he's getting something snapped up. Doubt he will last the whole fight though, unless he can knock Neto out.

His takedowns are better than Gracie's and he has a better chin than gracie and wades in a little more. Gracie is very cautious, only he could make Smith's TDD look good.

[Grabaka]

His takedowns are better than Gracie's and he has a better chin than gracie and wades in a little more. Gracie is very cautious, only he could make Smith's TDD look good.

Thats a bit of a stretch uncle nuns. Watch Amagov vs Smith. Amagov did took him down but he had pretty good balance and he was making all the right stuff. And Amagov is a an animal.

[Digo]

William Macario +185 against Leo Santos? WTF???? Or the odds are wrong, or its the best value that i did see in my life... William should be a huge favorite for this fight.

[NunyaBidness]

Thats a bit of a stretch uncle nuns. Watch Amagov vs Smith. Amagov did took him down but he had pretty good balance and he was making all the right stuff. And Amagov is a an animal.

Haven't rewatched that one in a while. You're probably right.

[PunisherIND]

William Macario +185 against Leo Santos? WTF???? Or the odds are wrong, or its the best value that i did see in my life... William should be a huge favorite for this fight.

did you watch the show? anyone else watch the show that has an opinion?

[Dwil125]

nope. didn't even realize that was the tuf finals until yesterday

[Grabaka]

did you watch the show? anyone else watch the show that has an opinion?

I watched it. Felt Patolino & argentinian are the only ones with a future there.

[PunisherIND]

I watched it. Felt Patolino & argentinian are the only ones with a future there.

what do you think about the final? do you agree with digo that macario should be the favorite here?

[Grabaka]

from what i saw in the show? yes
But im actually opening the files now and looking for Santos' fights to check his TDs.

[Grabaka]

1st fight....opponent dislocates finger and the fight is stopped. Santos moves to the house.