Jake's MMA Picks

[jamt31]

Fight was not as close as judges score cards.

I got scared for a about 10 seconds of that fight. Laying the juice on the next one?

[Sacrelicious]

I've got Faber in about 4 parlays.

Scott is going down.

[jakejd82]

I got scared for a about 10 seconds of that fight. Laying the juice on the next one?

[jakejd82]

I've got Faber in about 4 parlays.

Scott is going down.

Jorgensen has no advantage anywhere.

[Sacrelicious]

Jorgensen has no advantage anywhere.

Agreed, I'm quite heavy on Faber here.

Also a small play on Faber ITD.

[jakejd82]

Urijah is a cool cat...

[jakejd82]

Another great card, both fightwise and betwise... Just waiting for the wheels to come crashing off. Hope everyone had a Profitable Card.

Pineda +100. 1 Units to win 1 unit. +1 unit
Blanco -215. 2.15 Units to win 1 unit. +1 unit
Palaszewski -150. 1.5 Units to win 1 unit. -1.5 units
Marunde +140. 1 Unit to win 1.4 units. -1 unit
Quinlan +110. 1 Unit to win 1.1 unit. -1 unit
Barnatt -110. 1.1 Unit to win 1 unit. +1 unit
Browne -240. 4.8 units to win 2 units. +2 units
Tate +120. .5 units to win .6 units. -.5 units
Gastelum +320. .5 units to win 1.6 units. +1.6 units
Faber -450. 4.5 units to win 1 unit. +1 unit

Samman ITD -174. 1.74 units to win 1 unit. +1 unit

TUF 17 Finale: +4.6 units
UFC on Fuel 9: +5.3 units
Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +20.7 Units

[jakejd82]

Tate vs. Zingano FOTN... Excellent performance ladies

[MonkeyMoney]

I've got Faber in about 4 parlays.

Scott is going down.

it was a little scary watching the fight but faber is legit!! never been finished iirc..
had about 15 units in parlays with him left to win!!

[jakejd82]

Barao, Cruz, and Faber are light years better than any other BWs.

[Vaughany]

it was a little scary watching the fight but faber is legit!! never been finished iirc..
had about 15 units in parlays with him left to win!!

Mike Brown and Tyson Griffin are not impressed

[Vaughany]

Good stuff my man

[Sacrelicious]

Barao, Cruz, and Faber are light years better than any other BWs.

And arguably Barao is significantly better then Faber, depends to be seen in what kind of shape Cruz comes back in. That being said, if you name is not Cruz or Barao, Faber is a solid play against just about any other BW in the world right now.

He has really proven it with these last 2 performances.

[jakejd82]

Another Saturday and another UFC fight card, April is a great month. Im back from China so I will actually be enjoying this card on a Saturday night as opposed to Sunday morning like the last card. I am really looking forward to this card from an entertainment stand point. Lets keep the good times rolling as I look for my fifth successful card in a row... Cheers Fellas !

Henderson -265. 2.65 units to win 1 unit
Thomson +160. 1 unit to win 1.6 units
Larkin +150. 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Means +130. 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Njokuani -185. 1.85 units to win 1 unit
Starks +140. 1 unit to win 1.4 units

I will probably be placing some point line bets on Cormier, Mendes, Benavidez and Dillashaw as I see them all easily winning there fights but not worth the amount of juice.... Alpha Males continue to roll !

The Brown vs. Mein fight is the fight that I am most looking forward to, I might put a small bet on Brown as I feel this line is really inflated based on Mein's last fight vs. Miller. The kid is awesome but I dont see how he is -325 in this spot, that being said Mein has the potential to be a star and will probably win a hard fought close fight.

Good luck everyone on wagers and heres to another excellent night of fights.

TUF 17 Finale: +4.6 units
UFC on Fuel 9: +5.3 units
Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +20.7 Units

[NunyaBidness]

Good Luck, LT!

[PunisherIND]

Good Luck, LT!

[jamt31]

[MD]

Another Saturday and another UFC fight card, April is a great month. Im back from China so I will actually be enjoying this card on a Saturday night as opposed to Sunday morning like the last card. I am really looking forward to this card from an entertainment stand point. Lets keep the good times rolling as I look for my fifth successful card in a row... Cheers Fellas !

Henderson -265. 2.65 units to win 1 unit
Thomson +160. 1 unit to win 1.6 units
Larkin +150. 1 unit to win 1.5 units
Means +130. 1 unit to win 1.3 units
Njokuani -185. 1.85 units to win 1 unit
Starks +140. 1 unit to win 1.4 units

I will probably be placing some point line bets on Cormier, Mendes, Benavidez and Dillashaw as I see them all easily winning there fights but not worth the amount of juice.... Alpha Males continue to roll !

The Brown vs. Mein fight is the fight that I am most looking forward to, I might put a small bet on Brown as I feel this line is really inflated based on Mein's last fight vs. Miller. The kid is awesome but I dont see how he is -325 in this spot, that being said Mein has the potential to be a star and will probably win a hard fought close fight.

Good luck everyone on wagers and heres to another excellent night of fights.

TUF 17 Finale: +4.6 units
UFC on Fuel 9: +5.3 units
Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +20.7 Units

Do you watch any footage for your predictions, or do you just read up on your picks before you make them?

[jakejd82]

Just random guessing.... Never heard of most of these guys

[NunyaBidness]

What's your favorite MMA website? Favorite MMA writer?

[jakejd82]

What's your favorite MMA website? Favorite MMA writer?

MMAJunkie and MMAFighting are really the only MMA websites that I ever look at for fight news... To be honest, I couldnt name a writer off the top of my head besides Ariel Helwani. I do really enjoy his post fight interviews though.

Hope you had a good card ! it was insane

[jakejd82]

Henderson -265. 2.65 units to win 1 unit. +1 unit
Thomson +160. 1 unit to win 1.6 units. +1.6 units
Larkin +150. 1 unit to win 1.5 units -1 unit
Means +130. 1 unit to win 1.3 units -1 unit
Njokuani -185. 1.85 units to win 1 unit. +1 unit
Starks +140. 1 unit to win 1.4 units -1 unit

UFC on Fox 7: +.6 units
TUF 17 Finale: +4.6 units
UFC on Fuel 9: +5.3 units
Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +21.3 Units


Locking in a couple of early plays for next Saturdays cards as I dont see the lines getting any better.

Jones ITD -405. 2.02 units to win .5 units
Bisping -165. 3.3 units to win 2 units

I know its a square play and its not like me to lay that much juice especially on a prop but I really dont see any way that Sonnen wins this fight. Jones has the advantage anywhere this fight goes. I can see Jones playing with him in the first and finishing him in the second. I will probably make a wager on fight doesnt start third round as well. These guys dont belong in the same cage together.

I am really confident with the Bisping play. I believe he is the far superior fighter and should be closer to -250 or so. I got burned on the Bisping/Belfort fight but I dont see Bisping being as sloppy in this fight.

[jakejd82]

What a Focking card last night from start to finish. I wish I was able to have access to here last night as I am interested to hear everyones take on Larkin/Carmont fight. When they read the decision I was 100% sure that Larkin was going to get the victory. Im not really sure how all three judges scored that fight for Carmont, he seems to have a horse shoe stuck up his ass lately.

Also interested in seeing how everyone scored the Melendez/Henderson fight. Alot of really close rounds, I personally had Henderson winning 2,3 and 4 for the decision but there were many scores that were acceptable for this fight.

I unfortunately didnt pull the trigger on Brown but what a fight that was. One of my favorite fights of the year so far.

Alpha males have four impressive finishes in their last fight, who will be the first to take home UFC gold? I personally like Benavidez's chances in a rematch with MM over Mendes or Urijah's chances but all three certainly have a chance.

[BIGDAY]

Already on Bisping as well.

[jakejd82]

Already on Bisping as well.

Picks apart Belcher for UD

Congrats on the mendes play brotha ! He is a beast, striking is improving every fight. Has a legitimate chance of winning the title in the next year

[jakejd82]

I decided to write a few short sentences on each of my picks just to explain some of my reasoning(let the bashing begin). I take it most people wont actually read this whole thing but its more for me anyways. This undercard actually intrigues me more then the main card as there is alot closer fights oddswise. Usually on the close fights I tend to initially pick the guy at plus odds and then try to convince myself how the favorite can win and whether he is worth paying the juice.

Heres to another Great Card... Looking for my sixth straight profitable one. Good luck to everyone !

UFC 159
From previous post...
Jones ITD -405. 2.02 units to win .5 units
Bisping -165. 3.3 units to win 2 units

Holobaugh +105. 1 unit to win 1.05 units
Head -155. 1.55 units to win 1 unit
Garcia -175. 1.75 units to win 1 unit
Bedford -135. 2.7 units to win 2 units
Villante +165. 1 unit to win 1.65 units
Khabilov -300. 3 units to win 1 unit
Miller Dec -103. 1.03 units to win 1 unit
Kongo +200. .5 units to win 1 unit

The Holobaugh/Siler fight should be incredibly entertaining. Holobaugh really impressed me vs. Healy and I feel if he can get the fight to the ground he will have a significant advantage over Siler. If Siler stuffs the tds and keeps it on the feet then I could see him winning a hard fought decision. Either way it should be an exciting fight to open up the card.

Head belongs at 170 and for the most part has been impressive since dropping down ( other then getting caught in Pyle's clinch), I dont believe Catone is a UFC caliber fighter. Might look to add another unit to this.

I cant believe I am saying this but Garcia actually deserves to be more then a 2-1 favorite in a UFC fight. Both fighters appear to be on the way out with a loss but Garcia actually impressed me in his last fight with Max Holloway and I think he easily takes this fight against the incredibly one dimensional Mckenzie.

I love Bedford in this spot. His strength and aggression will be too much for Caraway to overcome. I actually didnt think that Caraway was going to be UFC material coming off of TUF but he has actually impressed me and is alot tougher then I thought but I feel this is a tough match up for me. Heres to hoping Miesha is in his corner for a fight that could have a close round or two.

I think the Villante/OSP fight should be closer to a pickem. OSP has loads of hype and really hasnt impressed me much. Villante should be able to overcome OSP's size and out grapple him for three rounds.

Khabilov controls this fight with his incredible Sambo and Greg Jackson will have a smart game plan. Meideiros is simply overmatched here and I feel very comfortable laying -300 in this spot.

Miller/Healy should be a great fight with two incredibly tough fighters. Im a big fan of Bam Bam but I just think Miller is at a different level here. I dont see either fighter getting the finish so the OVER may be a play also.

Roy Nelson is definitely the more consistent fighter but I really think if "Cup" Cheick Kongo comes to fight then he is certainly capable of getting the W and is definitely worth a fly at these odds.

UFC on Fox 7: +.6 units
TUF 17 Finale: +4.6 units
UFC on Fuel 9: +5.3 units
Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +21.3 Units

[jakejd82]

I also want to add, I think McMann rolls here. Her wrestling and top control should make this a fairly simple fight for her especially as the fight goes longer. I just cant bring myself to laying -750 vs. Gaff who is a great finisher

[PunisherIND]

jake, have you noticed that dirty fockn luke Thomas has been ripping off your picks for the past 4-5 events?

[MD]

jake, have you noticed that dirty fockn luke Thomas has been ripping off your picks for the past 4-5 events?

RISKING a thousand page-views on dogs, TO WIN a thousand page-views on favourites.

[NunyaBidness]

You mean this guy isn't Luke Thomas? I thought for sure he was gracing us with his presence since his picks are EXACTLY the same.

[PunisherIND]

You mean this guy isn't Luke Thomas? I thought for sure he was gracing us with his presence since his picks are EXACTLY the same.

maybe he is luke Thomas. crazier things have happened, I suppose. I really hope he is luke Thomas because I don't understand the point of pawning off someone else's picks as your own. that would be a real scumbag maneuver.

[Vaughany]

where are Luke Thomas' playz listed fellaz?

[Grabaka]

Whats the odds on 2 people making the same plays Nunya? Im not aspergy enough

[MD]

Whats the odds on 2 people making the same plays Nunya? Im not aspergy enough

Let's assume there's a 50% chance of selecting either fighter. In reality, there isn't, as there's often a clear favourite, but since Jake is selecting betting lines anyway, not fighters, it shouldn't matter. It's not fully accurate, though, so instead, we're going to go ahead and be ridiculous, and say that fights are so predictable that there's an 80% chance of two people selecting the same fighter to win. Assume ten fights a card. That's .8^10. There's a 10% chance that they'd select the exact same picks for one card, if we were to assume that there's an 80% probability of all of the individual fighters being selected. Punisher says the plays have been the same for 4-5 cards. .1^5 = 0.00001% chance that they're coincidentally making the same plays. If we were to assume a 50% probability of any given fighter being selected, those numbers would get even more ridiculous, even faster.

This method makes some assumptions that are difficult to quantify (I didn't check how many of Luke Thomas's picks he's copied in the last month or two, I just assumed ten per card, which is probably far too much), but the ridiculously high 80% probability input should more than make up for any faulty assumptions. I can say with almost complete certainty that the odds of them coincidentally selecting the same plays for this length of time are below 1%. Likely, far below.

If I messed up any of the math, my apologies, I just woke up from a nap and I'm pretty drowsy.

[jakejd82]

Just went back and added up the numbers. We have 61 ( which includes the 6 or 7 times I picked a large favorite to win ITD) picks the same and 11 picks different. Looking back at the bets I have made, I find it surprising how many favorites I took. I always thought that I bet on more underdogs, like I have said this is my first time keeping a running total of my wagers placed. Luke appears to pick over 90% favorites which makes sense because he is just picking who is going to win and not who has more value. I think picking who is going to win is way different then betting on specific odds as there could be value in betting on the underdog even though you think he loses more times then he wins.