Jake's MMA Picks

[jakejd82]

Well Mann looked awful, looked completely gassed from the beginning. I imagine it was a horrible weight cut which happens. Newton and Melo both looked pretty good. I was surprised at how easily Awad controlled that fight up until the very end, I definitely feel very fortunate as I know I was on the wrong end of that one. I actually am surprised so many people saw a problem with the stoppage, Awad was clearly hit before the bell, fell to the ground, didnt get back up and didnt respond to the referee therefor the ref has no choice but to stop it. Im not really sure what I am missing. Just because Awad said he wasnt out after the ref called the fight doesn't mean that he wasnt out at some point. The ref gave him the chance to respond and he didnt.

Mann -140 1.4 units to win 1 unit -1.4 units
Melo +100 1 unit to win 1 unit +1 unit
Newton -110 1.1 unit to win 1 unit +1 unit
Rickels -150 3 units to win 2 units +2 units

Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +7.55 Units

[Bradbatross]

Had nothing to do with the weight cut, that's just how Mann fights. He's way to passive, he always has trouble with fast aggressive guys.

[jakejd82]

I disagree. It clearly looked like something was wrong IMO. Whether it was a poor weight cut or cage rust. Oh well, it was a good card overall for me

[Bradbatross]

Mann fights exactly the same every fight, He has said himself that he's too passive. It was easy money on Lima.

[jakejd82]

Mann fights exactly the same every fight, He has said himself that he's too passive. It was easy money on Lima.

I clearly dont have the mma knowledge that you have ! Im sure you have won every bet you have ever posted !

[jakejd82]

Also nice pick on Trey Houston...... Great Bet

[MD]

No need to be a bitch about it bro.

[jakejd82]

No need to be a bitch about it bro.

I agree, no fight is "easy money". Thats what makes MMA so awesome, anything can happen. If Lima was "easy money", Brad probably wouldve had more then the $10 he had on him.

[MD]

I agree, no fight is "easy money". Thats what makes MMA so awesome, anything can happen. If Lima was "easy money", Brad probably wouldve had more then the $10 he had on him.

Apparently you didn't hear about GSP vs Diaz.

Also, being right or wrong doesn't make someone a bitch. Being a bitch makes someone a bitch.

[jakejd82]

We must have different definitions of the word bitch. To me, calling someone a bitch in a forum is a pretty bitch move when you clearly wouldnt do that in person. We are all adults here.... Well some more then others. I was simply stating my observations of a fight, stating a fighter that is a slight underdog is easy money is fairly ignorant imo. Fight couldve gone either way and I was on the wrong end of it, time to move on to the next fights.

[Sacrelicious]

[MD]

We must have different definitions of the word bitch. To me, calling someone a bitch in a forum is a pretty bitch move when you clearly wouldnt do that in person. We are all adults here.... Well some more then others. I was simply stating my observations of a fight, stating a fighter that is a slight underdog is easy money is fairly ignorant imo. Fight couldve gone either way and I was on the wrong end of it, time to move on to the next fights.

That's the thing, though, that's exactly what I thought when I read your post. "Easy to be a jackass on the internet."

He wasn't being an ass to you, he simply thought the other side was free money. It's handicapping, two people can have wildly different perspectives on the same fight. I'll still never understand how anyone could bet Munoz over Weidman. Don't take it so personally.

[jakejd82]

Didn't mean to come across as a dick but if I did I'm sorry. I was just trying to point out its hard to respect someone's opinion when they come in and say the other side of a fight was "easy money" after the fight is over when they also state another fight on the same card is easy money and lose that one. All im saying is its easy to say a fight was easy money after the fight is over. Some fights you get right some fights you don't. I was on the wrong end of this one, wasn't the first time and certainly wont be the last.

[Grabaka]

Jake is a cool cat

[jakejd82]

Jake is a cool cat

Thanks man! I just try to be rational, doesn't seem to be the norm around here.

[Sacrelicious]

Thanks man! I just try to be rational, doesn't seem to be the norm around here.

It's an internet forum for gamblers, I'm not sure what else you expected.

[jakejd82]

Lol good point !

[NunyaBidness]

It's an internet forum for gamblers, I'm not sure what else you expected.

Gamblers are such a funny lot.

Winning gamblers are by and large the brightest, most honest, trustworthy people I have ever met. I have made transactions for thousands of dollars with gamblers I have never met in real life on a word, never been stiffed.

Losing gamblers are the most pathetic, disgusting people on the face of the earth. They'll lock their kids in the car so they can put a dollar in a slot machine, they'll lie and steal wherever they can.

I think gambling is like alcohol, it amplifies the person you are within.

[Sacrelicious]

Gamblers are such a funny lot.

Winning gamblers are by and large the brightest, most honest, trustworthy people I have ever met. I have made transactions for thousands of dollars with gamblers I have never met in real life on a word, never been stiffed.

Losing gamblers are the most pathetic, disgusting people on the face of the earth. They'll lock their kids in the car so they can put a dollar in a slot machine, they'll lie and steal wherever they can.

I think gambling is like alcohol, it amplifies the person you are within.

What percentage of gamblers would you classify as winning gamblers? I'm thinking its probably in the 2-3% range, would that be accurate?

[bjpenn85]

Word!

[NunyaBidness]

What percentage of gamblers would you classify as winning gamblers? I'm thinking its probably in the 2-3% range, would that be accurate?

Off the top of my head, I would say 1%, maybe less. Winning gamblers surround themselves with other winning gamblers so they overrate the number. Losing gamblers hang around eachother and confirm their beliefs. Sit at a casino blackjack table and listed to those booger eating morons discuss strategy.

To be fair my statements only hold true to people who gamble very regularly, your grandma who goes to the casino twice a year doesn't count.

[sideloaded]

brad is piece of shit, I would ban him if I was a mod, dude is pushing it with me

[NunyaBidness]

There is a degenerate in my family, who bet me $50 on a board game and stiffed me when I won. On Christmas day. Then bragged on facebook the next day about winning $250 at the casino. I wrote, "if you had lost, would you have paid them?"

[jakejd82]

Gamblers are such a funny lot.

Winning gamblers are by and large the brightest, most honest, trustworthy people I have ever met. I have made transactions for thousands of dollars with gamblers I have never met in real life on a word, never been stiffed.

Losing gamblers are the most pathetic, disgusting people on the face of the earth. They'll lock their kids in the car so they can put a dollar in a slot machine, they'll lie and steal wherever they can.

I think gambling is like alcohol, it amplifies the person you are within.

I completely agree with this. Well said !

[MD]

Didn't mean to come across as a dick but if I did I'm sorry. I was just trying to point out its hard to respect someone's opinion when they come in and say the other side of a fight was "easy money" after the fight is over when they also state another fight on the same card is easy money and lose that one. All im saying is its easy to say a fight was easy money after the fight is over. Some fights you get right some fights you don't. I was on the wrong end of this one, wasn't the first time and certainly wont be the last.

Yeah, it's pretty easy to get carried away when you win. The thing that people fail to remember is that for every bet that's ever been won, there's at least a couple of people who are 100% sure they're going to win and feel like geniuses when they do. I saw some maniacs touting Newton over Mo. They're just as likely as anyone else to be a losing gambler in the end, though.

Gamblers are such a funny lot.

Winning gamblers are by and large the brightest, most honest, trustworthy people I have ever met. I have made transactions for thousands of dollars with gamblers I have never met in real life on a word, never been stiffed.

Losing gamblers are the most pathetic, disgusting people on the face of the earth. They'll lock their kids in the car so they can put a dollar in a slot machine, they'll lie and steal wherever they can.

I think gambling is like alcohol, it amplifies the person you are within.

18 months or so ago, I staked a friend of mine $1000 to play poker; I asked for no interest and no return of any kind, just that he give it back to me should he turn it into a proper bankroll. He blew it all, despite being a winning player over a large sample up to that point, due to some silly mistakes. I never asked for the money back, but he asked me to stake him again a few weeks later. When I said no, he took it as a personal insult and insisted that it meant I didn't believe in his ability to "make it" in gambling. We never spoke again.

[NunyaBidness]

18 months or so ago, I staked a friend of mine $1000 to play poker; I asked for no interest and no return of any kind, just that he give it back to me should he turn it into a proper bankroll. He blew it all, despite being a winning player over a large sample up to that point, due to some silly mistakes. I never asked for the money back, but he asked me to stake him again a few weeks later. When I said no, he took it as a personal insult and insisted that it meant I didn't believe in his ability to "make it" in gambling. We never spoke again.

I had a guy I was teaching to play poker, he had money but was a bankroll nit. We made a deal that if and when his poker bankroll ever reached 10k he'd give me 1k. He wasn't a very good student, was probably break even in easy games, a loser in anything else. But we were in vegas for the WSOP, and he binked in one of the smaller tournaments at another casino and started bragging about how his bankroll was now over 10k. As soon as I requested my 1k, he started backpeddling. I took way more from him in prop bets over the year, so it worked out. That person was a blood relative.

But then you have the story about some swedish kid who walked up to Daniel Negreneau at the WSOP and handed him 100k in cash trusting him to transfer it to him online (they give you shit if you carry more than 10k on international flights), DN had never met him before, but it worked out fine.

[jakejd82]

This is the most excited I have been for a Bellator Card in a while. What a main event this should be, as well as well as two tournament finales. Can you say STACKED?! I really like Hawn over Parisyan, however I dont like laying -550 on any fighter that isnt Silva, GSP, or Jon Jones so im going to stay away from this one. I really hope that "The Heat" shows up and makes this fight interesting, but I dont see this happening as Hawn has an advantage with his judo and is a much stronger opponent than the two bums he took out in Gladiator Challenge. The Cooper vs. Marshall fight is very interesting, Cooper is the better fighter but I dont think he deserves to be -300 considering how inconsistent he has been. Ill take a chance with Marshall at these odds. I really like "Frodo" over Richman, I think Richman will try to use his crisp boxing to keep some range but I dont see Frodo being content with letting the fight stay there. He will get inside, secure a trip/takedown and control the majority of this fight with constant movement and great control from the top. The Curran vs. Shamhalaev fight should be AWESOME. This fight really could go either way. Curran at times has had slow starts and we all know the fire power that Sham brings. Sham definitely has the chance to catch Curran early and finish him but I expect Curran to fight a smart fight and not just stand and bang. Could definitely see Sham winning one or two of the earlier rounds but Curran takes over in the later rounds and wins a decision.

Bellator 95
Curran -170 1.7 units to win 1 unit
Frodo -230 2.3 units to win 1 unit
Marshall +250 .5 units to win 1.25 units

Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +7.55 Units

Good luck everyone. Should be a really fun card !

[pouyasophy]

What percentage of gamblers would you classify as winning gamblers? I'm thinking its probably in the 2-3% range, would that be accurate?

Not everyone is destined for greatness. Your acceptance that you're a losing gambler will keep you there forever. I hope one day you can have a more positive outlook on life.

[pouyasophy]

brad is piece of shit, I would ban him if I was a mod, dude is pushing it with me

such a crybaby. You have quitter written all over your personality

[Vaughany]

I had a guy I was teaching to play poker, he had money but was a bankroll nit. We made a deal that if and when his poker bankroll ever reached 10k he'd give me 1k. He wasn't a very good student, was probably break even in easy games, a loser in anything else. But we were in vegas for the WSOP, and he binked in one of the smaller tournaments at another casino and started bragging about how his bankroll was now over 10k. As soon as I requested my 1k, he started backpeddling. I took way more from him in prop bets over the year, so it worked out. That person was a blood relative.

But then you have the story about some swedish kid who walked up to Daniel Negreneau at the WSOP and handed him 100k in cash trusting him to transfer it to him online (they give you shit if you carry more than 10k on international flights), DN had never met him before, but it worked out fine.

Viktor Blom?!

[NunyaBidness]

Viktor Blom?!

No, the kid was a no-name. Neg said he'd never heard of him or had any idea who he was.

[jakejd82]

A perfect 3-0 card. Very entertaining fights. I dont think either tournament winner will have much of a chance vs the respective champions but both were impressive. Hope everyone had a great card, there is definitely a few lines im looking at for saturday. Cheers men !

Bellator 95
Curran -170 1.7 units to win 1 unit. +1 Unit
Frodo -230 2.3 units to win 1 unit. +1 Unit
Marshall +250 .5 units to win 1.25 units. +1.25 units

Bellator 95: +3.25 units
Bellator 94: +2.6 units
WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +10.8 Units

[BIGDAY]

Keep killin em pal

[Vaughany]

Good work brah

[jakejd82]

Thanks guys !