Jake's MMA Picks

[BIGDAY]

Had a unit on Cramer. I mushed Cramer.

[jakejd82]

Had a unit on Cramer. I mushed Cramer.

Tough break. Cramer wins that fight 2 outta 3 times at least imo. What were your thoughts on Richman and Marshall scores?

[jakejd82]

Getting a few wagers in early as I like a couple lines.

Mein -170 1.7 Units to win 1
Ring -120 1.2 Units to win 1
Ellenberger -1.65 1.65 Units to win 1
Condit +115 2 Units to win 2.3

I will definitely be adding more units to the Ellenberger and Condit fight as these are two fights that I feel most confident in. I wanted to lock the other two bets in now because I think the line will get worse, the closer to the fight.

I really wanted to bet on my boy Cruickshank but I was expecting him to be in the -130 to -150 range so I will wait to see if his line drops at all as Makdessi is a very capable fighter.

I will be keeping a close eye on the line movements for this card. Im very interested in hearing everyones opinions. Only four days away.... Woooooooot

[Sacrelicious]

Shank opened at -140, I took him at that. With you on Ellenberger and Condit.

[jakejd82]

Shank opened at -140, I took him at that. With you on Ellenberger and Condit.

Man it must have moved fast. I really like Cruickshank here but im worried it is pure slappiness as I have trained with him at Mash Gym and he wrestled with my brother-in-law's brother in high school, very cool and funny guy. Im just worried a little bit about his chin, as he got dropped quite a few times in some of his pre-ufc fights as well as vs. Tickle. I dont put too much behind the Vick KO as that was pure luck and bad timing. Cruickshank has very underrated wrestling and he will be able to take this fight to the ground if NEEDS to so if he gets in trouble I could see him shooting in. Also his training camp worries me... Funk Fitness and Mash Gym (He is CLEARLY the best fighter there) vs. Tristar. One thing is for sure Daron will not be flustered being on Makdessi's home turf, the guy is cool as the other side of the pillow.

[Vaughany]

lol Funk Fitness and Mash Gym

Makdessi is one of the best strikers in MMA IMO. His use of the jab, his head-movement and overall timing is on a different level to majority of fighters in MMA. Obviously the wrestling is a concern tho

[Sacrelicious]

Man it must have moved fast. I really like Cruickshank here but im worried it is pure slappiness as I have trained with him at Mash Gym and he wrestled with my brother-in-law's brother in high school, very cool and funny guy. Im just worried a little bit about his chin, as he got dropped quite a few times in some of his pre-ufc fights as well as vs. Tickle. I dont put too much behind the Vick KO as that was pure luck and bad timing. Cruickshank has very underrated wrestling and he will be able to take this fight to the ground if NEEDS to so if he gets in trouble I could see him shooting in. Also his training camp worries me... Funk Fitness and Mash Gym (He is CLEARLY the best fighter there) vs. Tristar. One thing is for sure Daron will not be flustered being on Makdessi's home turf, the guy is cool as the other side of the pillow.

Lasted for less then 2 minutes, was the only opener I was able to hit. I have faith in Shank here.

[MD]

lol Funk Fitness and Mash Gym

Makdessi is one of the best strikers in MMA IMO. His use of the jab, his head-movement and overall timing is on a different level to majority of fighters in MMA. Obviously the wrestling is a concern tho

Njokuani.

[jakejd82]

lol Funk Fitness and Mash Gym

Makdessi is one of the best strikers in MMA IMO. His use of the jab, his head-movement and overall timing is on a different level to majority of fighters in MMA. Obviously the wrestling is a concern tho

I agree with you for the most part but Cruickshank is a very good striker as well, very flashy and creative. Both guys have a good chance to finish this fight. I think this fight has a chance for FOTN

[Vaughany]

Njokuani.

yes he's very good too, hence "one of the best"

[jakejd82]

Mein up to -270, glad I got it in when I did

[MD]

yes he's very good too, hence "one of the best"

I'm saying Njokuani pretty much exposed Makedessi in the stand up. Styles make fights, though; I don't expect Cruickshank to replicate that performance.

[Vaughany]

I'm saying Njokuani pretty much exposed Makedessi in the stand up. Styles make fights, though; I don't expect Cruickshank to replicate that performance.

ah yeah I see. Makdessi couldnt deal with Njokuani's reach tho could he, Makdessi is a tiny LW. Think Njo had a 7.5 reach advantage on him!

[MD]

ah yeah I see. Makdessi couldnt deal with Njokuani's reach tho could he, Makdessi is a tiny LW. Think Njo had a 7.5 reach advantage on him!

Indeed. Funnily enough though, Makdessi missed weight in that fight.

[jakejd82]

Adding one bet

Cruickshank -120 1.2 units to win 1

This is about where I thought the line would be and I think it actually has some value. Cruickshank should win this fight if he fights smart and has a good game plan. Really looking forward to this fight. I have watched so much mma this week already, really getting anxious for Saturday.

[jakejd82]

adding

Duran -135 1.35 units to win 1
Mulhern +350 .5 units to win 1.75
Elkins -220 2.2 units to win 1
Cote -170 1.7 units to win 1
another on Ellenberger -160 1.6 units to win 1
another on Condit +120 1 unit to win 1.2
hedging Condit bet with Hendricks KOTN +800 .5 units to win 4 units

Total bets for tonight.

Duran -135 1.35 units to win 1
Mulhern +350 .5 units to win 1.75
Cruickshank -120 1.2 units to win 1
Mein -170 1.7 Units to win 1
Elkins -220 2.2 units to win 1
Cote -170 1.7 units to win 1
Ring -120 1.2 Units to win 1
Ellenberger -1.65 and -1.60 3.25 Units to win 2
Condit +115 and +120 3 Units to win 3.5
Hendricks KOTN +800 .5 units to win 4 units

I will not be be checking on here that often tonight as my buddy is having some people over for the fights and im not a big fan of being glued to my phone/computer when im a guest.

Good luck everyone on your picks tonight, should be a fun card even though I foresee alot of decisions.

[Sacrelicious]

With you on Shank, Condit and Ellenberger. Good luck man.

[jakejd82]

With you on Shank, Condit and Ellenberger. Good luck man.

REALLY like Condit and Ellenberger tonight, might even add another unit to each. Good luck tonight Sac

[Sacrelicious]

REALLY like Condit and Ellenberger tonight, might even add another unit to each. Good luck tonight Sac

Also love those two, and Shank as well.

Waiting to see if BIGDAY makes a "pound" thread regarding Ellenberger. If he does, I may hold back on adding more to him.

[Grabaka]

BIGDAY please pound Ellenberger and GSP.

[jakejd82]

BIGDAY please pound Ellenberger and GSP.

Diaz is one of my favorite fighters but I really dont think he stands much of a chance here. Fight IQ is the name of the game here, GSP is too smart for Diaz. Will most likely be a rout IMO.... Hope im wrong

[Grabaka]

That why we need Bigday to pound him.

[jakejd82]

Duran -135 1.35 units to win 1 L -1.35
Mulhern +350 .5 units to win 1.75 L -.5
Cruickshank -120 1.2 units to win 1 L -1.2
Mein -170 1.7 Units to win 1 W 1
Elkins -220 2.2 units to win 1 W 1
Cote -170 1.7 units to win 1 W1
Ring -120 1.2 Units to win 1 L -1.2
Ellenberger -1.65 and -1.60 3.25 Units to win 2 W 2
Condit +115 and +120 3 Units to win 3.5 L -3
Hendricks KOTN +800 .5 units to win 4 units L -.5

UFC 158: -2.75
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +2.5 Units

Very entertaining card IMO. Main Event played out exactly like I and I think everyone else thought it would. Hendricks vs. Condit was an amazing fight, and boy was I wrong about it. I really thought Condit was going to be able to keep it on the feet more. Condit did more damage but the takedowns were the name of the game, I think I still have hard feelings for the victory Hendricks had over my boy Ryan Churella (GO Blue) in the '06 National Chamionship. Ellenberger went about how I thought it would. Only other thing to mention is Mein, the kid is a beast. I really feel he won that fight vs. Woodley off his back, hopefully he has fixed his holes in his TDD because he has potential written all over him. I think im going to steer clear of Bellator tonight as there is some basketball tourney going on.

Hope everyone had a better card then me, congrats Hendricks backers. Im looking forward to that fight vs. GSP.

[jakejd82]

Changed my mind, going to put a few bet in on Bellator 93 tonight.

Dave Jansen -145 1.45 units to win 1 unit
Ryan Martinez +170 1 units to win 1.7 units
Marcus Davis -185 1.85 units to win 1 unit

I will be recording the fights and watching them in the morning. Looking forward to seeing the Irish Hand Grenade again !

[Sacrelicious]

Davis is pretty faded these days... That being said, I am also on him, it looks like we might be the only two on the board. Also like Jansen, managed to catch a lucky opener.

I'm on Wiuff instead of Martinez, but I'm not overly confident in that play. This is not the most intriguing card, ah well, next 2 weeks are going to be awesome.

Best of luck, my man.

[jakejd82]

Yeah I know he isnt the fighter he used to be but he is still a very good boxer. Spiritwolf is the ultimate can though. I agree with you on this being a week card, thats why I will be taping it and watching it tomorrow morning, plus I despise Jimmy Smith so I will gladly fast forward through his non sense in between fights and on that note mute him during the fights.

Good Luck on you bets ! I will be placing some on WSOF 2 this weekend for sure.

[jakejd82]

Bellator 93

Dave Jansen -145 1.45 units to win 1 unit. W +1 Unit
Ryan Martinez +170 1 units to win 1.7 units. W +1.7 Units
Marcus Davis -185 1.85 units to win 1 unit NC 0 Units

Total +2.7 units

I was a little scared with the Jansen bet after the first round but the second and third went more like I expected. The Martinez victory was so quick that it was hard to really take anything from it, I thought that the fight should of been close to a pick em so I will always take the +money in that situation. Im also a little disappointed in the Davis ending, hopefully they schedule a rematch. Well, I recouped my losses from the Condit fight last card so I am happy. I will definitely be placing a few wagers on the WSOF 2 card tomorrow night, as I have a couple strong leans. The main event is almost impossible to cap considering the differences in Rumble and Pitbull, so Im not sure where I will go with that.

Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +5.2 Units

[jakejd82]

keep it rolling into WSOF 2. Should be a very Interesting card, Im really looking forward to it.

Arlovski -105 1.05 units to win 1
Moraees -175 1.75 units to win 1
Branch -220 2.2 units to win 1
Simpson -270 2.7 units to win 1
Gaethje -145 1.45 units to win 1

Good luck everyone on the card tonight ! Hope everyone is still alive in their NCAA tourney pools

[Sacrelicious]

keep it rolling into WSOF 2. Should be a very Interesting card, Im really looking forward to it.

Arlovski -105 1.05 units to win 1
Moraees -175 1.75 units to win 1
Branch -220 2.2 units to win 1
Simpson -270 2.7 units to win 1
Gaethje -145 1.45 units to win 1

Good luck everyone on the card tonight ! Hope everyone is still alive in their NCAA tourney pools

Whats NCAA?

[Vaughany]

Whats NCAA?

"Nunya's Calculus And Arithmetic" tournament I believe

[Sacrelicious]

"Nunya's Calculus And Arithmetic" tournament I believe

Oh! Okay.

[jakejd82]

Im pretty excited for this Bellator card with two tournament finals. Should be a very entertaining main card with alot really close lines which seems strange for a Bellator card. I really like Rickels here and I think this is a very good line even though Awad has looked great in the little time that he has spent in his last two fights in the bellator cage. I believe Rickels is a much better opponent then anyone Awad has fought and that this line should be closer to -200. I believe Rickels weathers the blitzkrieg from Awad and wins a fairly one sided decision. I will also be on Newton, Melo and Mann. That Newton/Zayats fight should be great !

Bellator 94

Mann -140 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Melo +100 1 unit to win 1 unit
Newton -110 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Rickels -150 3 units to win 2 units

Good luck everyone ! Go CAVEMAN !

[jakejd82]

Forgot to post totals.

WSOF 2: -.25 Units
Bellator 93: +2.7 Units
UFC 158: -2.75 Units
Bellator 92: -.95 Units
UFC on Fuel 8: +6.2 Units
Overall: +4.95 Units

[Grabaka]

Im pretty excited for this Bellator card with two tournament finals. Should be a very entertaining main card with alot really close lines which seems strange for a Bellator card. I really like Rickels here and I think this is a very good line even though Awad has looked great in the little time that he has spent in his last two fights in the bellator cage. I believe Rickels is a much better opponent then anyone Awad has fought and that this line should be closer to -200. I believe Rickels weathers the blitzkrieg from Awad and wins a fairly one sided decision. I will also be on Newton, Melo and Mann. That Newton/Zayats fight should be great !

Bellator 94

Mann -140 1.4 units to win 1 unit
Melo +100 1 unit to win 1 unit
Newton -110 1.1 unit to win 1 unit
Rickels -150 3 units to win 2 units

Good luck everyone ! Go CAVEMAN !

Holy freaking mole! You have the opposite of my bets.

[jakejd82]

Holy freaking mole! You have the opposite of my bets.

Well good luck sir! I've been known to be way off in the past