MD's House of Winnerz

MD · 05-25-13, 09:46 PM

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH.

Come on KO of the night.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 05-25-13, 09:57 PM

Originally posted by MD

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH.

Come on KO of the night.

????

MD · 05-25-13, 10:05 PM

I was on Grant KO +1000 and Grant KO of the Night +2300.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 05-25-13, 10:09 PM

oh come on now, when i said grant was a paly nearing +200 you said this

Originally posted by MD

Maynard wrecked Huerta, and fought Diaz entirely on the feet; Diaz shot for takedowns but Maynard didn't. That Guida fight was... well, nothing more needs to be said about it. Florian is by no means a smaller guy. He makes a rumblecut to get to 145.

I'm a little bit worried for Maynard as he may be on the decline, but honestly, it's a good match up for him stylistically. Grant has pretty bad takedown defence.

MD · 05-25-13, 10:15 PM

Uh... did you read the post above the one you originally quoted? I was still on Maynard, but I took Grant by KO and KO of the night because I thought if he won, it's almost always a KO because Gray is overconfident in his hands and doesn't exploit Grant's questionable TDD.

Glover absolutely starched Te Huna, I did not expect it to be that easy.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 05-25-13, 10:23 PM

lets see the screenshot

MD · 05-25-13, 10:29 PM

Of what? Read this post dude:

Originally posted by MD

Remaining plays:

Moderate-large on Hunt/JDS starts round two -222, large on Velasquez, moderate on Velasquez TKO, Grant/Maynard distance -145, Maynard hedged with Grant KO +1000 and a very tiny play on Grant KO of the night +2300. Also got a tiny play on Te Huna decision +650, and this parlay:

Pending	5 Team Parlay
		Pending	5/25/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1041 Velasquez wins by TKO/KO -365* vs Any other result
		Pending	5/25/13 11:30pm Props Fighting 1132 Any other result -569* vs Dos Santos wins by submission
		Pending	5/25/13 10:00pm Props Fighting 1428 Any other result -8725* vs Noons wins by submission
		Win	5/25/13 7:30pm Props Fighting 1922 Any other result -505* vs Burrell wins by TKO/KO
		Win	5/25/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 2116 Any other result -750* vs Stephens wins by submission

EDIT: Velasquez TKO/KO is at -225 by the way, played it on Paddy.

Click the blue arrow in the quote. Can't make this shit up bruhv.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 05-25-13, 10:33 PM

don't see TJ Grant by KO on that crren shot

MD · 05-25-13, 10:35 PM

...

I didn't post a screen-shot, I posted a quote of something I posted about an hour ago.

HOLY SHIT. Can't believe Hunt's chin. Over one round cashes big.

MD · 05-25-13, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by MD

Couple more of my plays for tonight:

Payan +180. I really like this bet, but I'm hesitant to bet much as I've only seen one of Payan's fights. He has some great tools, though, and I 'cap him at around -130, factoring in how little footage I have on him and how weak his competition was. If he looked like this in all of his fights, he'd be -200 easily, I think. Moderate on this.

I'll be on Trujillo, probably small-moderate. Nurmagomedov is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC and I don't consider him top twenty at 155. Tujillo has very good cardio, and the perfect style to beat Khabib, given his tendency to strike when pushed against the fence. His counter wrestling also looks very good. Khabib's striking is bad, but he swings with power, so he could find the knock out, but he should be out-matched here. Abel isn't a world-beater on the feet, or else I'd be larger on him. He should have the edge here though.

Maynard by decision moderate. Already summed up my thoughts on this. Hedged with Grant KO of the night +2300.

Moderate-large on Hunt/JDS starts round two at -222 and some other odds. Great prop I think.

Chalky, but I pounded Not Stevens Submission -750. Should be closer to the -2500 range. I love Whittaker ITD +525, amazing value, as it's a much closer fight than others seem to think. I have a lot of prop plays on this card and I'm starting to worry about it; I made many of them without considering how the lines would move, and ended up betting more props than I wanted to. I really like Cain/Bigfoot u1.5, moderate on that, and moderate on Bowles ITD, as I doubt he wins a decision here. I have a bet on Colton by decision, too.

I have some tiny plays on Te Huna by decision +650, and Cerrone by sub.

That's not it for my plays, but it's most of them. Will post the rest later when I've gotten more work done; a bit late getting stuff done for this card. A bit unhappy with some of my prop choices.

Cashed Thompson, missed on Maynard, but more than made up for it with Grant KO +1000, hit big on Starts Round 2 in the JDS/Hunt fight, Cain by KO and Cain straight, Stephens Not by Sub, Whittaker ITD. Lost small on Trujillo, took a hit on Payan and took an ugly hit on Holloway live. Lost my fliers on Te Huna decision and Cerrone sub, too. Lost a decent chunk on Bowles ITD, which was a poor bet in retrospect, won on Cain/Bigfoot u1.5. Got some Sklanksy bucks for Grant KO of the night, as until JDS got that insane finish, it looked like I was cashing.

Profitable night, although it could have been much better had I not gotten Jewed pretty hard on the Holloway fight.

**Sykes** · 05-25-13, 11:39 PM

Was a good night, dodgy decisions, final fight MO-FO ref.

MD · 05-26-13, 12:13 AM

GRANT TAKES KO OF THE NIGHT.

Holy SHIT.

**Vaughany** · 05-27-13, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by MD

GRANT TAKES KO OF THE NIGHT.

Holy SHIT.

ha yeah, Silva had it down as JDS but Mike Tyson made him change his mind and give it to TJ!

MD · 05-28-13, 10:54 AM

Any other result -305*vs Werdum wins in round 1

Value here.

Shields/Woodley goes 3 round distance -120* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Henderson/Evans goes 3 round distance -135*vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Played all three.

**PunisherIND** · 05-28-13, 11:18 AM

Originally posted by MD

Any other result -305*vs Werdum wins in round 1

Value here.

Shields/Woodley goes 3 round distance -120* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Henderson/Evans goes 3 round distance -135*vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Played all three.

nice grabs. i played the latter two before seeing this post (slightly worse odds). will tail on Not werdum in rnd 1. looks good to me, even at the current -420.

**Beelzebubzy** · 05-28-13, 12:43 PM

Fight starts round 2 at -250

**TheCalculator** · 05-28-13, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by MD

Shields/Woodley goes 3 round distance -120* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Henderson/Evans goes 3 round distance -135*vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

Value here.

Played all three.

MODERFAWKER -- you single handidly BLEW UP THE LINES.

I was going to go BIG on Shields/Woodley distance.

MD · 05-28-13, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

MODERFAWKER -- you single handidly BLEW UP THE LINES.

I was going to go BIG on Shields/Woodley distance.

MDTeam doesn't f-ck around. <3

**Sacrelicious** · 05-28-13, 06:51 PM

Those lines sure did not last long..

**Dwil125** · 05-29-13, 11:53 AM

Have you started working on cage warriors for this weekend at all?

MD · 05-29-13, 08:32 PM

^ I'll get back to you on that, I just started doing some handicapping for this card. I'll let you know what I think before Saturday.

MD · 05-29-13, 10:46 PM

I just finished watching footage on Cathal Pendred... oh my GOD. I got fourteen rounds into his fight with Grimaud, checked to see how many rounds were left, and realized I was only on round two, of a five round fight. Holy SHIT. Don't say I don't work for my money, bros.

I don't even know man. I pounded the hell out of Mills -120 on Paddy Power, with the expectation being that if I liked Mills after studying tape, I could keep my position, but if I liked Pendred, I could arb out and bet on him, as there was no way Mills -120 was lasting long. Unsurprisingly, Paddy still hasn't moved it. Laziest book of all time. I arbed big-time on 5D at +190. Not fully, though. Still deciding who I like here.

I'm pretty sure Che Mills needs a first or second round finish to win this, as if he doesn't, Pendred is just going to do whatever the hell he was doing to Grimaud. Lucky for Mills, he has a good chance of that, as he should have a striking edge, Pendred is easy to hit, and seemingly doesn't even try for takedowns, he just grinds against the fence.

I'm not sure what to make of this fight yet. If anyone wants a degen action play for the weekend, just put a flier on Elkins and leave it at that.

**Grabaka** · 05-29-13, 10:51 PM

Life sucks without Paddy. Enjoy it!

**ArchieUD** · 05-30-13, 06:13 AM

I pounded Mills at -125 (never saw it at -120), and was actually able to put down the amount I wanted to without being limited

Guess I'm not in the big leagues yet..

MD · 05-30-13, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by ArchieUD

I pounded Mills at -125 (never saw it at -120), and was actually able to put down the amount I wanted to without being limited

Guess I'm not in the big leagues yet..

Oops, yes, -125. I do my fractional conversions in my head and I somehow converted 4/5 to -120.

**ArchieUD** · 05-30-13, 08:00 AM

Ha. No biggie! Guess I should have arbed, but got greedy and waited for +200.. would not have arbed completely, anyways. Pendred got a f-cking ugly style and is often hit on his way in for clinching. Like I wrote in Vs thread he should have lost vs Carvalho. As for Mills I think his stint in UFC helped him up his game and he should be able to shrug of clinch attempts for three rounds and at least win 48-47 across the board if he does not find the ko early. CW will proably be happy with a more exciting belt holder.

MD · 05-31-13, 02:58 PM

Got Pendred +190 a couple of times, +180, and some other near +200 odds. Like I said, Mills probably needs the KO early to win. Pendred is honestly not a very good fighter but he's gritty enough to give a lot of guys problems. Me thinks Mills is on the down-slope and a guy who Pendred can roll through if he fights as he always does. Always the chance of Mills getting the KO, but I like those odds. My only play for tonight as I didn't pull the trigger on Fields.

As stated previously, a lot of my Pendred action was just my arbing on the Mills bets, but I did end up with a position on him. At pretty good odds too. I'd rather be on Pendred than Mills here to be honest.

**Dwil125** · 05-31-13, 03:08 PM

Cage warriors is tomorrow right? like 3pm in the U.S.?

MD · 05-31-13, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by Dwil125

Cage warriors is tomorrow right? like 3pm in the U.S.?

Yeah it is. Oops, I said "tonight".

Also, I'll probably put more down on Pendred if action comes in on Mills as I expect it to.

**Sacrelicious** · 05-31-13, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by MD

Got Pendred +190 a couple of times, +180, and some other near +200 odds. Like I said, Mills probably needs the KO early to win. Pendred is honestly not a very good fighter but he's gritty enough to give a lot of guys problems. Me thinks Mills is on the down-slope and a guy who Pendred can roll through if he fights as he always does. Always the chance of Mills getting the KO, but I like those odds. My only play for tonight as I didn't pull the trigger on Fields.

As stated previously, a lot of my Pendred action was just my arbing on the Mills bets, but I did end up with a position on him. At pretty good odds too. I'd rather be on Pendred than Mills here to be honest.

God damn, I was only able to hit him at +155.

**TheCalculator** · 05-31-13, 07:21 PM

Tough fight to cap.

I really like Che Mills style. That being said Pendred is extremely aggressive and his style doesn't really play well with Che's. Che MIGHT KO him or he might get out-grinded against the cage and possibly taken down. No play for me but I hope Che wins.

Good work to all those who arbed. Good prediction on the early line movement MD.

**Dwil125** · 06-01-13, 12:43 AM

How bad did mills miss weight? Did he try again after he missed?

MD · 06-01-13, 06:48 AM

He weighed 170.7, and the fight will be three rounds non-title, which I really don't like. Pendred's chances increase dramatically in a five-round fight. Still, I'm not too worried.

Also, played Aldo -145 and Miocic +205. Both soft lines. Pettis has absolutely nothing for Aldo and Miocic should be a slight favourite here. Frank Mir wrestlefucked Nelson, Miocic is more a wrestler than a boxer and should easily do the same if he wishes to. Is his fight IQ high enough to neutralize Big Country like he can, though? If I knew he had a great game plan, I'd 'cap him at around -300. Unfortunately, I don't know that.

**Sacrelicious** · 06-01-13, 06:58 AM

Tonight I'll be moderate on Pendred...

Your line on me betting Big Country -350 was correct, I will be pounding him here.

MD · 06-01-13, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by Sacrelicious

Tonight I'll be moderate on Pendred...

Your line on me betting Big Country -350 was correct, I will be pounding him here.

You'll be pounding Nelson at those odds? Insanity, in my opinion. To each their own, though. Miocic can and will try to take him down, and has advantages in cardio, speed, height, reach, strength and fight IQ. Luckily for you and unluckily for me, his ring work leaves something to be desired, so there's a good chance Nelson crowds him into a right hand against the fence like he did against Kongo. I do think Stipe's being horribly undervalued here though.