MD's House of Winnerz

[MD]

I have a small play on Love here. I feel like he should have the blackness advantage.

[Sacrelicious]

I have a small play on Love here. I feel like he should have the blackness advantage.

Ditto, also Love dec small for +180ish.

[Sacrelicious]

Was all looking good till that round... shit.

[Sacrelicious]

Well I'll take that win.

Whoever it was on here talking about how the judges will favor Love due to his connection to Mayweather, appreciate the heads up.

This sport is ridiculous.

[MD]

^ Wasn't me, but that was my plan. I watched no footage on this fight, just saw Mayweather Promotions were promoting the event and that Love is a Mayweather protogé. Easy money.

I did think Love won, though.

[mirinquads]

You are bad that's all i can say. Bad men

[Sacrelicious]

Your inbox is full, d00d.

[Sacrelicious]

Oops, double post, ignore this one.

[MD]

Oops. Cleared.

[MD]

Hey guys, just wanted to let you know that I've discovered an amazing new method of handicapping fights. I'm going to share it with you, and I guarantee at least 72% (!!!) winnerz using this method.

First of all, begin playing this song. You should do this immediately without continuing to read this post. Go ahead, I'll wait.

...

Done? Ok, good.

Next, while listening to the song, stare at this .gif until the song ends.



Now, the tricky part. You have to decide which fighter is which character in the above scene. In some fights, such as GSP vs anyone, it's easy to decide that GSP is the duckling, but what about in trickier fights, such as Belfort vs Rockhold? That's where handicapping ability comes into play.

With that said, I'm sure you guys will be able to pick 72% (!!!) winnerz using this method.

Deposit 2 points below if this method changed your life.

P.S: In almost all cases, the fighter you decide to bet on won't be riding a Roomba on fight-night. Account for that in your handicapping.

[MD]

Also, I maxi-bet Ziggler a half-dozen times at good odds at Sac's recommendation; posting it here for reference. Thanks Sac!

[Vaughany]

random post of the year contender!

[MD]

random post of the year contender!

And still more reputable than Gabe.

[Vaughany]

ye still makes more sense

[MD]

ye still makes more sense

If the cat flies, falls off of, or otherwise vacates the Roomba, it's called a "flier". If the cat lands on the duckling, it's a recommended play; if not, it's just a lean.

[MD]

BFO is recording O/U's now. Excellent.

[Vaughany]

What's your thinking with Cavalcante vs Throat Slasher? Not sure how this is gonna move and whether I should take Cavalcante now while he's at -170 on Pinny

[MD]

What's your thinking with Cavalcante vs Throat Slasher? Not sure how this is gonna move and whether I should take Cavalcante now while he's at -170 on Pinny

There are enough variables to make me want to stay away, but I think there's value on Cavalcante. He's better than Silva in pretty much every area, and Silva is on a harsh decline. Cavalcante should find the stoppage within two rounds.

[Vaughany]

yeah that's my thinking. I've taken him at -170. I capped him at winning this 65-70% of time so have to take it. I think his speed advantage and knees in the clinch will be key. Also his solid right leg kick will be there all day against somebody as stiff and plodding as Thiago. Also, after the amount of times Thiago has been caught with substances you have to think he wont have the balls to be on shiit again! When you actually look at Thiago's wins they aren't exactly impressive! Jardine is probably his most impressive one but anybody with aggression and power should be KO'ing Jardine! Nothing needs to be said about likes of Drwal, Houston Alexander, and Antonio Mendes...they speak for themselves (and Drwal actually won first round). Then was losing to a very small 205er but was saved by Nedkov gassing out . This just seems like quite a good fight for Feijao to use to make a big impression

[Vaughany]

saying all that wouldnt be surprised if one of them (most likely Thiago) pulls out with an injury

[NunyaBidness]

BFO is recording O/U's now. Excellent.

Another nail in the coffin, how grand.

[MD]

Another nail in the coffin, how grand.

We've been trying (poorly) to keep track of line movement on O/U's for a while now. Why is this a bad thing?

The only thing about it that strikes me as bad is that it takes some of the work out of gambling, and simplifies it too much.

[NunyaBidness]

Why is this a bad thing?

For the same reason BFO as a whole is a bad thing.

Imagine you live in a world where little pieces of gold are scattered around, and with a little bit of work and time invested you have figured out a way to find these nuggets easily.

Would you prefer to continue doing this, or would you rather some company come along and give away free metal detectors?

[MD]

For the same reason BFO as a whole is a bad thing.

Imagine you live in a world where little pieces of gold are scattered around, and with a little bit of work and time invested you have figured out a way to find these nuggets easily.

Would you prefer to continue doing this, or would you rather some company come along and give away free metal detectors?

That's what I assumed the issue was.

I agree with you; I look at it from a slightly more "glass half full" perspective, though, and not just because I don't have the ability to scrape my own lines. When the average 85 IQ parlays-everything-with-Matt-Riddle gambler starts to line shop, and perform other sharp actions without actually being sharp, it becomes harder to identify and limit sharp players. When the overall quality of gambling goes up, the disparity between a Nunya and a JSanford becomes more blurred; the icing, though, is that their handicapping doesn't improve. Whether they're paying -550 or -520 on their -EV wager is irrelevant. More action from square gamblers is a good thing, and I think BFO encourages it. I'd say I profit more than I've lost because of BFO; I'm sure the same isn't true for you, though, and it may not be true for myself a few years from now, either.

[NunyaBidness]

TWhen the average 85 IQ parlays-everything-with-Matt-Riddle gambler starts to line shop, and perform other sharp actions without actually being sharp, it becomes harder to identify and limit sharp players. When the overall quality of gambling goes up, the disparity between a Nunya and a JSanford becomes more blurred

These aren't who the competition is.

There are always going to be fish, they will make bad bets either way. There is a third group.

[MD]

For those who aren't aware, torrents are out for Trouble Will Find Me. I'm assuming that's the reason V has been posting so much less.

[omalley21]

Oops i had been harassing bfo on twitter for a while now to put o/u's up. Theyre also adding +3.5's too.

[Vaughany]

For those who aren't aware, torrents are out for Trouble Will Find Me. I'm assuming that's the reason V has been posting so much less.

ha that combined with fact I cant post on here at work anymore!

[MD]

My favourite plays for tonight:

Luke Rockhold moderate-large -114: I think Vitor Belfort has a really good shot at winning this fight, I do. I think he finishes Rockhold in the first couple of rounds around 30% of the time. That being said, I think Rockhold wins the other 70% of the time. He has too many tools, and honestly, it's easy to think either side is incredibly undervalued in this fight, simply because they're both awful stylistic match-ups for each other. Rockhold is easy to hit and is generally overaggressive while Belfort has trouble with distance strikers and kicks, and especially people who have big cardio edges, as Rockhold will. When I play this fight out in my mind, I actually think there's a good chance Rockhold knocks him out early, which would surprise a lot of people. It's a relatively competitive fight with a lot of value on Rockhold, but wouldn't be surprised to see Vitor get the stoppage. Great fight, very exciting.

Rafael Natal large -350: Guy is going to smoke Zeferino. Zeferino is overmatched in every area, Natal should be able to easily stuff his takedowns, and on the feet, Natal is lightyears ahead. His fight IQ scares me, but there's simply such a big skill discrepancy that I can't pass this up. Natal by knockout.

Lentz moderate -155: My problem with Hacran Dias is simply how untested he is. There's no reason to believe the hype. Yeah, he lay all over Alcantara, but Lentz could do the same thing. Absolutely no reason to think Lentz shouldn't lay all over Dias. I regret this bet more and more the closer we get to fight time, but empirical evidence is more important than gut-feeling and hype, and while I wish the evidence had told me that Dias should be the favourite, it didn't; he hasn't looked outstanding, although I'm somewhat expecting to be proved wrong.

Maldonado/Hollett o2.5 moderate-large +155: I posted a thread on this, write-up is in there.

I have a small-moderate play on Prazeres +150; I don't think Thiago is fade material yet, but Prazeres is a huge, stocky guy with bullish takedowns. I would expect him to be able to take Thiago to the ground, where he should have a clear path to victory. His cardio worries me, however.

This parlay at close to +300:

				Pending	5/18/13 9:30pm Props Fighting 1203 Anjos/Dunham goes 3 round distance -185* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance
				Pending	5/18/13 8:30pm Props Fighting 1406 Not Lentz inside distance -525* vs Lentz wins inside distance
				Pending	5/18/13 6:30pm Props Fighting 1806 Not Santos inside distance -1725* vs Santos wins inside distance
				Pending	5/18/13 6:00pm Props Fighting 1903 Maldonado/Hollett goes 3 round distance -120* vs Fight won't go 3 round distance

That's Iliarde, not Junior, by the way. I like that parlay a lot.

Then, some props: Paulo Thiago by KO +590. His clearest route to victory me thinks. Belfort by KO +210 as a hedge, Trinaldo/Rio under 1.5 +130, Rockhold by sub +700, Natal by KO +320 is a prop that I love, should be closer to even money.

Not sure how many more wagers I'll have. I won't be picking a side on the Dunham/RDA fight, but I'll probably be playing a prop there. Still contemplating the Jussier/Cariaso fight.

[Mercersux]

Second the lean on Rockhold. Vitor lets this one get out of the first round then Rockhold starts to pick him apart. Tko rnd 3-4. GL MD. Btw, small play on Peterson as well.

[MD]

Mercer! Good to see you around pal. Post more you scrub.

You like Peterson? I think that's a tough fight to call. Especially if it hits the cards, I doubt I'd be comfortable on either side.

What do you think of RDA/Dunham?

[Mercersux]

Mercer! Good to see you around pal. Post more you scrub.

You like Peterson? I think that's a tough fight to call. Especially if it hits the cards, I doubt I'd be comfortable on either side.

What do you think of RDA/Dunham?

I think that one's super tough to call. imo that fights a complete toss up. +165 on Dunham and let it ride.

[Dwil125]

Tailing you on that Fabio/hollet round prop.. kind of I took fight starts round 3. I'm thinking maldanado's body shots might finish him off late in the fight.

[visualrealism]

Made money on that one bellator bet. Riding all your bets again today pal!!

[MD]

^ Thanks for the faith man. Hope we cash big. Looks good so far in my second biggest play.

Live betting Hollett moderate at -115 and +125.