Dwils mma thread

[Sacrelicious]

30-27 Aliev, 29-28 Marshall, 29-28 Marshall, total garbage.

[Dwil125]

I think so too, I wish I had a bigger Br. I would have rebet frodo after losing that under 1.5, and with aliev losing also.

[MD]

I think so too, I wish I had a bigger Br. I would have rebet frodo after losing that under 1.5, and with aliev losing also.

Never chase, no matter how big your bankroll is. It's a recipe for disaster.

I guarantee you that if we took statistical data from every gambler who ever made over 50 bets and we looked at the ones who chased, their risk of ruin would be significantly higher than one who followed basic bankroll management. You can lose pick after pick after pick and still have an expectation of profit in the long run as long as your fundamentals are sound.

Just my two cents. Best of luck next weekend buddy.

[Dwil125]

If popo cashes, ill be betting more on frodo. probably a parlay with gsp straight.

I dont chase, Ive already seen many people do it with bad results. I was always already planning to add more on frodo, I had the under 1.5 with marshall paired with frodo. After that lost I wanted to bet on frodo because his line still had value even thought it was like -120. Thanks man, Ill be looking out for that gsp UD opener soon

[Dwil125]

How do you factor in Kelly, if all of your bet sizes are the same from following good br management though?

[sideloaded]

How do you factor in Kelly, if all of your bet sizes are the same from following good br management though?

there is a spread sheet that will do it for you. Just put in your edge and bankroll. I will post the link.

[sideloaded]

http://www.sendspace.com/file/idtxad

[MD]

How do you factor in Kelly, if all of your bet sizes are the same from following good br management though?

Kelly itself is good bankroll management. I don't like flat betting, and I don't like standardized bet sizes. Never have. I always use Kelly to size my wagers.

If you're interested in using Kelly, fool around with the SBR Kelly calculator for a while.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tools/kelly-calculator/

Try a .25 (1/4) multiplier (as full Kelly is far too aggressive for most purposes). Once you feel a bit more comfortable with Kelly, there are other resources you can use, such as Ganchrow's spread sheet to compensate for line movement and overbets.

[Dwil125]

Thanks guys! Im on st pierre decision, and straight in parlays. then Ricci, and dillashaw, also have ricci by decision. Ill post the format and amounts a little later.

[Sacrelicious]

We are largely in the same place man.

In terms of my bet sizing, I figure I'm far to new to this, correct me if I'm wrong MD, but would gathering a large enough sample size (ie. 1000 or so bets over a year) be a better indicator of edge calculation, or should I simply go for fractional kelly betting in order to arrive at the same percentage?

[MD]

We are largely in the same place man.

In terms of my bet sizing, I figure I'm far to new to this, correct me if I'm wrong MD, but would gathering a large enough sample size (ie. 1000 or so bets over a year) be a better indicator of edge calculation, or should I simply go for fractional kelly betting in order to arrive at the same percentage?

Pretty much everyone should use fractional Kelly regardless of the circumstances. Very few exceptions. Full Kelly is far too aggressive for most bettors.

[Dwil125]

I didnt catch all openers, but I caught dillashaw and ricci at a good number. Dillashaws line is probably going to close at 650-700 I think. I like the play you made on miller Sacrelicious, are you adding more on him now that its moved like 50 cents?

[Sacrelicious]

Waiting to see how it closes, I was not expecting it to go above +200, but we might see it get to like +260 to +270 at this rate. I will be adding a very small amount.

[Dwil125]

I'm looking at Duran vs roop right now, duran parlayed with gsp straight pays +110. Roop kinda sucks, I need to do more research on duran but ive auto faded roop before

[hobbesITD]

Duran is currently training with Naudi Aguilar, a self-taught fitness guru who is super into this new age "functional patterns" garbage. I wouldn't put money on anyone who wastes their time with him.

[Vaughany]

ha yeah, he certainly hasnt helped Lil Heathen recently!

[Sacrelicious]

What the hell.... might need to make a small play on Roop.

[Dwil125]

Haha maybe ill just stick with the plays that I have, I wouldnt let anyone video taping me doing this and calling it training.

[Dwil125]

Aliev killed some parlays that had gsp at the anchor, but for saturday so far I have Ricci Decision-small moderate to large on gsp decision -180. I also caught dillashaw as early as I could at -500.

168187268-1	3/12/13 4:08pm	$50.00	$49.69		Pending	3 Team Parlay
					Pending	3/16/13 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Georges St-Pierre -485* vs Nick Diaz
					Pending	3/16/13 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Mike Ricci -264* vs Colin Fletcher
					Pending	3/16/13 7:00pm UFC Fighting 2002 T.J. Dillashaw -503* vs Issei Tamura

[hobbesITD]

ha yeah, he certainly hasnt helped Lil Heathen recently!

Justin Lawrence joined up with them too. Aguilar is going hard for that "worse camp then the Blackzilians" trophy

[Dwil125]

Gsp (decision is in a bunch of parlays) Im also on condit +110 paired with gsp straight, really small. Thinking about adding more, If hendricks tries to strike with condit hes probably going to lose a decision.

[Dwil125]

Justin Lawrence joined up with them too. Aguilar is going hard for that "worse camp then the Blackzilians" trophy

Seems like michael johnson is the only one from the blackzillians that wins fights consistently

[hobbesITD]

Seems like michael johnson is the only one from the blackzillians that wins fights consistently

Not since joining them! Abel Trujillo is the only one with a plus .500 UFC record. Blackzillians don't even have a head coach right now.

http://themmareport.com/2013/03/blackzilians-by-the-numbers/

[Dwil125]

Lol I wasnt sure exactly when he switched, I just noticed he has a nice matchup for april 6th in sweden. Im going to watch for that opener

[Sacrelicious]

Also with you on Condit and GSP, I have faith in the natural born killer at dog odds.

With you on Ricci as well.

[Dwil125]

Lol im really small on Condit, I might add more tomorrow. I cant believe you caught that gsp -9.5 at -135

[Sacrelicious]

Lol im really small on Condit, I might add more tomorrow. I cant believe you caught that gsp -9.5 at -135

It was a lucky hit, managed to get it by literally a matter of 3 or 4 minutes. I need to write a script to start alerting me when lines come out, unfortunatelly the last time I did any programming I was about 13, the languages have changed quite a bit.

[Grabaka]

I dont think the bookie would like that. You would have to get behind a fake ip or something, me thinks. In case they find it.

[Sacrelicious]

I have a few ideas...

[NunyaBidness]

I dont think the bookie would like that. You would have to get behind a fake ip or something, me thinks. In case they find it.

No, they don't care. Some books even have RSS feeds to make it easier. That's what this is for, as well:

http://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

Other ones you can just parse the HTML. It's pretty simple, it just gets to be a pain, because every time a book changes its layout you need to modify your program to cope with it. Plus you get into problems of misspelling, if you're looking for Magomadrusal and they release Frodo for example, or half the books have LSU, the other have Louisiana State University, and another one lists LouisianaStateUniversity and another lists LouisianaSt.

[Sacrelicious]

No, they don't care. Some books even have RSS feeds to make it easier. That's what this is for, as well:

http://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

Other ones you can just parse the HTML. It's pretty simple, it just gets to be a pain, because every time a book changes its layout you need to modify your program to cope with it. Plus you get into problems of misspelling, if you're looking for Magomadrusal and they release Frodo for example, or half the books have LSU, the other have Louisiana State University, and another one lists LouisianaStateUniversity and another lists LouisianaSt.

Beautiful, thank you.

[PunisherIND]

No, they don't care. Some books even have RSS feeds to make it easier. That's what this is for, as well:

http://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx

this is interesting. they have some fights listed without a line yet (jim miller vs healy). i guess we can expect lines shortly. they also have entries for tex-te huna props.

[Dwil125]

I didnt even see gsp -9.5 until it was like -200, I caught most of the other lines at a good time though I have ricci by decision at +120, and dillashaw at -500. Most of my money on gsp decision was at -180 too, and the ud prop is at -170 right now. Only have gsp by dec with alot of juice in 2 parlays

166511236-1	3/3/13 3:40am	$30.77	$35.61		Pending	3 Team Parlay
					Pending	4/20/13 10:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Daniel Cormier -387* vs Frank Mir
					Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision -280* vs Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision
					Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance -380* vs Not Jones inside distance
166384702-1	3/2/13 6:11pm	$27.00	$64.84		Pending	4 Team Parlay
					Win	3/2/13 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Diego Sanchez -224* vs Takanori Gomi
					Win	3/2/13 7:30pm UFC Fighting 2001 Hyun Gyu Lim -269* vs Marcelo Guimaraes
					Pending	3/16/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1011 St-Pierre wins by 5 round decision -280* vs Not St-Pierre by 5 round decision
					Pending	4/27/13 11:00pm Props Fighting 1009 Jones wins inside distance -380* vs Not Jones inside distance

[Vaughany]

this is interesting. they have some fights listed without a line yet (jim miller vs healy). i guess we can expect lines shortly. they also have entries for tex-te huna props.

think they usually do that, at least on sportbet I've seen it many times before. Sometimes they have them showing months before they actually release them tho. Might different now that Kalikas is running the show

[Dwil125]

Looking at cammozi +3.5 right now, I wanna build up some more br for April,There's an event every weekend next month!