Cousin Gabe's picks for UFC on FX 5 and other sh!t

[gabe]

i do it because i'm good at it, not because it's a hobby. but it is a hobby, too, since i enjoy it and do it frequently.

clear?

[MD]

You guys have a "bankroll" you play with, like a hobby. For me, it's my bread and butter.

I like you, man, but this is pretty f-cking terrible right here. You have to accurately assess your risk of ruin if you're a gambler, and maintaining good bankroll management significantly reduces your risk of ruin. Having a bankroll isn't something that casuals do; maintaining good bankroll management is something that long-term winners do.

Even though I think some of the things you post (this, and "They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me.") are pretty ridiculous, I think you're a good handicapper and I really have no issue with you as a poster either. If you really believe what you said about bankroll management, I hope you'll reconsider that in the near future. With even a slight edge you can beat MMA bookies significantly with very few swings, if you follow bankroll management. If you did things correctly, you'd have far less swings, and probably a lot more success, too. Consistent grinding is for long-term winners, swings of large profits and large losses caused by bad bankroll management are for casual players. I know you've done well doing things the way you have until now, but I hope you'll at least take my advice to heart. It's the difference between a lottery player and a player who's beating the game.

[gabe]

I like you, man, but this is pretty f-cking terrible right here. You have to accurately assess your risk of ruin if you're a gambler, and maintaining good bankroll management significantly reduces your risk of ruin. Having a bankroll isn't something that casuals do; maintaining good bankroll management is something that long-term winners do.

Even though I think some of the things you post (this, and "They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me.") are pretty ridiculous, I think you're a good handicapper and I really have no issue with you as a poster either. If you really believe what you said about bankroll management, I hope you'll reconsider that in the near future. With even a slight edge you can beat MMA bookies significantly with very few swings, if you follow bankroll management. If you did things correctly, you'd have far less swings, and probably a lot more success, too. Consistent grinding is for long-term winners, swings of large profits and large losses caused by bad bankroll management are for casual players. I know you've done well doing things the way you have until now, but I hope you'll at least take my advice to heart. It's the difference between a lottery player and a player who's beating the game.

You clearly missed my point. I don't have a "bankroll" because life isn't free. I have to eat, pay bills, etc. I use my profits for that. You have a bankroll because you have money outside of your bankroll you can live off, making it more of a hobby. Sure, if I was making good money outside of gambling, I would have a bankroll and watch it grow, but I can't afford to do that.

[gabe]

hmmm let's ignore that I had Wiman and you had Sass then!

Sass wasn't one of my main plays. I'm referring to plays we're both big on and on opposite sides of. Sass wasn't one of my main plays, and you weren't big on Wiman, either.

[NunyaBidness]

I like you, man, but this is pretty f-cking terrible right here. You have to accurately assess your risk of ruin if you're a gambler, and maintaining good bankroll management significantly reduces your risk of ruin. Having a bankroll isn't something that casuals do; maintaining good bankroll management is something that long-term winners do.

Even though I think some of the things you post (this, and "They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me.") are pretty ridiculous, I think you're a good handicapper and I really have no issue with you as a poster either. If you really believe what you said about bankroll management, I hope you'll reconsider that in the near future. With even a slight edge you can beat MMA bookies significantly with very few swings, if you follow bankroll management. If you did things correctly, you'd have far less swings, and probably a lot more success, too. Consistent grinding is for long-term winners, swings of large profits and large losses caused by bad bankroll management are for casual players. I know you've done well doing things the way you have until now, but I hope you'll at least take my advice to heart. It's the difference between a lottery player and a player who's beating the game.

A noble effort, but its not worth the time.

I've tried 25 times. I gave up.

Nothing on this earth will convince Gabe he is not the greatest handicapper on earth. And somehow being broke is testament to that fact.

He's a good guy, just let him live.

[MD]

You clearly missed my point. I don't have a "bankroll" because life isn't free. I have to eat, pay bills, etc. I use my profits for that. You have a bankroll because you have money outside of your bankroll you can live off, making it more of a hobby. Sure, if I was making good money outside of gambling, I would have a bankroll and watch it grow, but I can't afford to do that.

My only sources of revenue for the past two years have been poker and sports betting. I only bet MMA now, and I took a break from poker months ago. Read some posts from that dww123 (probably got his name wrong) guy, he has a bankroll and still supports himself with his gambling.

Consider taking less money out of your profits, if you can, and instead making a more consistent bankroll to bet with. It'd be a good decision. I hope for your sake you find a way to stabilize your betting.

EDIT:

A noble effort, but its not worth the time.

I've tried 25 times. I gave up.

Nothing on this earth will convince Gabe he is not the greatest handicapper on earth. And somehow being broke is testament to that fact.

He's a good guy, just let him live.

Good point, I'll leave him to his own devices. Just thought it was worth chiming in, as I hate to see a guy lose if it's preventable.

[NunyaBidness]

Good point, I'll leave him to his own devices. Just thought it was worth chiming in, as I hate to see a guy lose if it's preventable.

I personally love to watch em lose. They push the line the wrong way, I scoop up the profits.

You travel the tournament circuit at all?

[MD]

I personally love to watch em lose. They push the line the wrong way, I scoop up the profits.

You travel the tournament circuit at all?

No, I played exclusively online. DoN's, then when I got frustrated with those, went back to cash games, which I haven't played in quite a few months. Titan poker locked me in with their security procedures so I couldn't withdraw, so I got frustrated and decided to stop playing for a while.

[Beelzebubzy]

No, I played exclusively online. DoN's, then when I got frustrated with those, went back to cash games, which I haven't played in quite a few months. Titan poker locked me in with their security procedures so I couldn't withdraw, so I got frustrated and decided to stop playing for a while.

I like this dude. Its rare to see a new poster survive past a week and live to tell the tail. Welcome MD. Enjoy the humor

[gabe]

A noble effort, but its not worth the time.

I've tried 25 times. I gave up.

Nothing on this earth will convince Gabe he is not the greatest handicapper on earth. And somehow being broke is testament to that fact.

He's a good guy, just let him live.

On earth? Probably not. I went 12-4 this past weekend. Who here did better than that? You? With your Kingsbury play? LOL!

Being broke is a testament to that fact? WTF are you talking about, man? If it weren't for the money I made from this, I would starve. Not only am I not starving, but I'm having sushi meals, son!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't get how you can look down on me as a capper when I consistently have GREAT nights. Not good nights, GREAT nights.

[gabe]

My only sources of revenue for the past two years have been poker and sports betting. I only bet MMA now, and I took a break from poker months ago. Read some posts from that dww123 (probably got his name wrong) guy, he has a bankroll and still supports himself with his gambling.

Consider taking less money out of your profits, if you can, and instead making a more consistent bankroll to bet with. It'd be a good decision. I hope for your sake you find a way to stabilize your betting.

EDIT:



Good point, I'll leave him to his own devices. Just thought it was worth chiming in, as I hate to see a guy lose if it's preventable.

I can't take less money out, it's the only money I've got. Now, I'm making less, because I can't parlay MMA, anymore. Need to find a book that let's me.

[gabe]

[MD]

I can't take less money out, it's the only money I've got. Now, I'm making less, because I can't parlay MMA, anymore. Need to find a book that let's me.

Does your bookie accept bets mid-card, before the fights start?

If you want to parlay Travis Browne and Mike Pierce, both at -200 (hypothetically), you could put $100 on Pierce and then, if he wins, call your bookie and put $150 on Browne. Same amount of profit.

You should be able to do this on most sites, but I'm assuming it's different with local books.

[gabe]

nfl [419] ten titans +205

200.00 usd / 410.00 usd

nfl [429] den broncos +230 100.00 usd / 230.00 usd

nfl [413] phi eagles +3½ -120 60.00 usd / 50.00 usd

nfl [418] ny giants -6½-170 (b+2)

85.00 usd / 50.00 usd

[gabe]

Does your bookie accept bets mid-card, before the fights start?

If you want to parlay Travis Browne and Mike Pierce, both at -200 (hypothetically), you could put $100 on Pierce and then, if he wins, call your bookie and put $150 on Browne. Same amount of profit.

You should be able to do this on most sites, but I'm assuming it's different with local books.

Don't need to call, they have websites.

If you look in my previous threads, you'll find that I made MANY parlays, not just one or two. I would make a lot of parlays, and on good nights, a majority of them would hit. Sometimes, all of them have hit. Turned $450 into $2,700 a couple months ago. ($3,150, if you include the initial the $450)

[gabe]

Just put $50 into 5dimes

$7.00	$355.85	Pending	7 Team Parlay
				Pending	10/5/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1202 Josh Neer -280* vs Justin Edwards
				Pending	10/5/12 8:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 John Dodson -220* vs Jussier da Silva
				Pending	10/5/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1401 Jeremy Stephens -230* vs Yves Edwards
				Pending	10/5/12 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jacob Volkmann -185* vs Shane Roller
				Pending	10/5/12 5:30pm UFC Fighting 1801 Bart Palaszewski +170* vs Diego Nunes
				Pending	10/5/12 4:30pm UFC Fighting 1951 Marcus LeVesseur -120* vs Carlo Prater
				Pending	10/5/12 4:00pm UFC Fighting 1975 Aaron Simpson +140* vs Mike Pierce

[MD]

Don't need to call, they have websites.

If you look in my previous threads, you'll find that I made MANY parlays, not just one or two. I would make a lot of parlays, and on good nights, a majority of them would hit. Sometimes, all of them have hit. Turned $450 into $2,700 a couple months ago. ($3,150, if you include the initial the $450)

So, why can't you do what I just suggested?

[gabe]

So, why can't you do what I just suggested?

I do pretty much do that. It's not the same as having multiple parlays.

[MD]

It's a bit more work, but it's exactly the same or better.

[gabe]

UFC ON FX 5

#1) Jacob Volkmann -185 > Shane Roller
Feels too easy. I cap Volkmann closer to -500 than I do -200. Shouldn't have trouble taking Roller down, and controlling him for an easy 30-27 UD. I have a feeling he might submit a gassed Roller in the 3rd. We'll see. I'm taking him straight, not by decision.

#2) Jeremy Stephens -220 > Yves Edwards
There is value in Stephens by KO. He got whooped by Cerrone, this is his bounce back fight. Should make it look easy. Worst case scenario, he wins a hard fought decision.

#3) Josh Neer -280 > Justin Edwards
I think Justin might be related to Yves. Not sure. Anyway, both are going to lose. Neer is the better fighter, and has many paths to victory. He will probably take one, since he can't take two. I can't predict how he'll win, but he'll win.

too st0ned off the indica dominant kush my main russki defacto hooked me up with, i'll be back with the rest later...

[Educ8d Degener8]

haha great shout...Edu were u at?! Put it on the screen dump of Gabe sitting on the shitter as well!

Post Gabe on shitter pic, and I'll get to work...

[gabe]

Post Gabe on shitter pic, and I'll get to work...

you gonna kick me, too?

[NunyaBidness]

On earth? Probably not. I went 12-4 this past weekend. Who here did better than that? You? With your Kingsbury play? LOL!

Being broke is a testament to that fact? WTF are you talking about, man? If it weren't for the money I made from this, I would starve. Not only am I not starving, but I'm having sushi meals, son!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't get how you can look down on me as a capper when I consistently have GREAT nights. Not good nights, GREAT nights.

Oh no I lost on my kingsbury play. I lost literally 50 times more on NFL this week than Kingsbury. It'll be okay though.

Congrats on eating sushi. My house is paid for.

[gabe]

Oh no I lost on my kingsbury play. I lost literally 50 times more on NFL this week than Kingsbury. It'll be okay though.

Congrats on eating sushi. My house is paid for.

Not putting you down, buddy, just saying it's crazy that you think I'm not any good at this, when you've seen how well I've been consistently doing since I've been here. Nurmagomedov and all...

[MD]

Not putting you down, buddy, just saying it's crazy that you think I'm not any good at this, when you've seen how well I've been consistently doing since I've been here. Nurmagomedov and all...

I don't believe he's saying you're bad at it. I believe he's saying you have extremely large holes in your game which will almost certainly cost you in the long run.

Please don't tell me you bet on Nurmagomedov against Tibau. You may have won the bet, but it was a robbery, and most certainly the wrong side. I saw you complaining (rightfully so) about being robbed on your Ogle bet, so I hope that the Tibau fight isn't the one you're referring to.

[gabe]

I don't believe he's saying you're bad at it. I believe he's saying you have extremely large holes in your game which will almost certainly cost you in the long run.

Please don't tell me you bet on Nurmagomedov against Tibau. You may have won the bet, but it was a robbery, and most certainly the wrong side. I saw you complaining (rightfully so) about being robbed on your Ogle bet, so I hope that the Tibau fight isn't the one you're referring to.

I had Nurma in that fight, and it was a just decision. He did enough to win, controlled Tibau... But I was referring to Nurma vs Shalorus, where he was a really big dog

[Vaughany]

On earth? Probably not. I went 12-4 this past weekend. Who here did better than that? You? With your Kingsbury play? LOL!

Being broke is a testament to that fact? WTF are you talking about, man? If it weren't for the money I made from this, I would starve. Not only am I not starving, but I'm having sushi meals, son!!!!!!!!!!!! Don't get how you can look down on me as a capper when I consistently have GREAT nights. Not good nights, GREAT nights.

That's another one to stick on Wannabet's meme!

[Vaughany]

Post Gabe on shitter pic, and I'll get to work...

ha I'll have a look, I thinkk it was Defacto who posted it in past?

And these ones on the Wannabet meme....

"This isn't just a hobby for me, it's a skill."

"They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me."

[Vaughany]

UFC ON FX 5

#1) Jacob Volkmann -185 > Shane Roller
Feels too easy. I cap Volkmann closer to -500 than I do -200. Shouldn't have trouble taking Roller down, and controlling him for an easy 30-27 UD. I have a feeling he might submit a gassed Roller in the 3rd. We'll see. I'm taking him straight, not by decision.

#2) Jeremy Stephens -220 > Yves Edwards
There is value in Stephens by KO. He got whooped by Cerrone, this is his bounce back fight. Should make it look easy. Worst case scenario, he wins a hard fought decision.

#3) Josh Neer -280 > Justin Edwards
I think Justin might be related to Yves. Not sure. Anyway, both are going to lose. Neer is the better fighter, and has many paths to victory. He will probably take one, since he can't take two. I can't predict how he'll win, but he'll win.

too st0ned off the indica dominant kush my main russki defacto hooked me up with, i'll be back with the rest later...

Volkmann at -185 isn't a bad line to be fair, I expected him to end up at -250. Not playing Roller unless he hits +200 to +220 range.

Playing a "Out of the mean streets of Des Moines" double on Lil Heathen and The Dentist, pays out better than evens on sportbet.

[gabe]

ha I'll have a look, I thinkk it was Defacto who posted it in past?

And these ones on the Wannabet meme....

"This isn't just a hobby for me, it's a skill."

"They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me."

For the record, my sense of humor is very active when I say things like that.

[DeFactoCrippler]

ha I'll have a look, I thinkk it was Defacto who posted it in past?

And these ones on the Wannabet meme....

"This isn't just a hobby for me, it's a skill."

"They're not, if you're the average person, but they are if you're me."

Best I could do pal.

[gabe]

creepy russian with poor grammar/punctuation lol what a cliche.

nice to know they have photoshop in moskva.

[gabe]

Best I could do pal.

lol that's actually kinda dope

[NunyaBidness]

Not putting you down, buddy, just saying it's crazy that you think I'm not any good at this, when you've seen how well I've been consistently doing since I've been here. Nurmagomedov and all...

You may or may not be a solid handicapper. But as I've stated numerous times before, being a solid handicapper is the LEAST important factor in beating sports betting, behind line shopping, having a proper bankroll, having lots of outs, etc.

[DirtyX]

Gabriel, serious thought here... Most of the poster's who do well on here, receive props without seeking it. If you post your plays and bets beforehand -ticket numbers and dollar amounts, your "Outstanding Skills" will speak for themself dude. No need to say how great you are, because if you truly are a top dog as you claim, people will recognize and speak on it. Just saying..