Bitcoin Price Tracking & Discussion -- 2026

[Madison]

Chuck, they're (BTC) breaking through the 65/66K support.

LMK, I was thinking of dipping back into ETH/USA but my hands have been cut to many times catching the falling knife???

[Madison]

Strategy shows no fear — it keeps adding to a losing bitcoin position as prices drop

[Madison]

Strategy shows no fear — it keeps adding to a losing bitcoin position as prices drop

The captain of the Titanic??

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Strategy shows no fear — it keeps adding to a losing bitcoin position as prices drop

MAD, it's ambitious for sure. My notes:
1) Put me in the Bitcoin-maxi camp. I don't like ETH (or other coins).
2) There's evidence that Businesses and Nation-states have been accumulated BTC.
3) Directional price of an Asset is not always predictive of future movement on that asset.
...IE: Momentum trades are not always great.

I'm a believer in Bitcoin. Mostly based on the scarcity. And also b/c many investors are asleep at the wheel.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

[Optional]

https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/

Be nice if that holds.


Using this chart, two conclusions (or perhaps, assumptions) are made.

1. The price will reach $100,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2021 and no later than 2028. After 2028, the price will never drop below $100,000.
2. The price will reach $1,000,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. After 2037, the price will never drop below $1,000,000.

As always, the logic of this chart and the assumptions derived from it depend on bitcoin's previous performance being indicative of the future.

[Madison]

Be nice if that holds.


Using this chart, two conclusions (or perhaps, assumptions) are made.

1. The price will reach $100,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2021 and no later than 2028. After 2028, the price will never drop below $100,000.
2. The price will reach $1,000,000 per bitcoin no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. After 2037, the price will never drop below $1,000,000.

As always, the logic of this chart and the assumptions derived from it depend on bitcoin's previous performance being indicative of the future.

Your input is always appreciated!!

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Your input is always appreciated!!

MAD, a few thoughts:
1) Raiders is one of the best posters for BTC info. Very good.
2) Bitcoin is an asset that generates disparate opinions. Try to figure out who's right.
3) Google the topic on "Bitcoin deaths." It's a long list. And that ties to BTC cycles and fair valuation.

[raiders72001]

Swing trading time. Next dump I'll start buying. If you get caught holding, no big deal. No one has ever lost money buying bitcoin and selling 4 years later.

[Madison]

Swing trading time. Next dump I'll start buying. If you get caught holding, no big deal. No one has ever lost money buying bitcoin and selling 4 years later.

Swing trading is something I did before the term was coined. You could write a book regarding "get caught holding" scenario. It's not necessarily hard, possibly very costly, to catch the proverbial falling knife especially for high conviction holdings. One trick I've seldom been able to profit from is when a holding breaks upside resistance and then just keeps on running. I have a list as long as my arm in failures there. Traded GLD and SLV, NVDA, and on and on.

Game is like golf, you can always do better.

BOL, gentlemen.

Chuckster ... I keep slowly adding to LAC, and have little reason to stop.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Hi, MAD. You know I love metals:
1) I've added aluminum recently. AA = Alcoa.
2) I hold some LAC. But I admit to not being so knowledgeable on Lithium.
3) What do you like so much about Lithium?

[pavyracer]

Swing trading time. Next dump I'll start buying. If you get caught holding, no big deal. No one has ever lost money buying bitcoin and selling 4 years later.

So far so good with the halving theory. The high of 125,000 was met with a 50% loss at 62,500 and so far it holds. The low could be tested again in the future a couple times and if it holds buy more and see you in 4 years with a 100% gain.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Swing trading is something I did before the term was coined. You could write a book regarding "get caught holding" scenario. It's not necessarily hard, possibly very costly, to catch the proverbial falling knife especially for high conviction holdings. One trick I've seldom been able to profit from is when a holding breaks upside resistance and then just keeps on running. I have a list as long as my arm in failures there. Traded GLD and SLV, NVDA, and on and on.

Game is like golf, you can always do better.

BOL, gentlemen.

Chuckster ... I keep slowly adding to LAC, and have little reason to stop.

Good stuff, MAD. Appreciate your insights. As you say, one can always do better.

I've studied risk for some time. I can say for a fact that people under-estimate the probability of EXTREME loss. IE, loss event that one might capture in Normal DIST.

Financial markets have proven to be riskier than people think. Kurtosis is a topic that shows up in Extreme Value modelling. And most people have no idea what kurtosis is.

[Madison]

Hi, MAD. You know I love metals:
1) I've added aluminum recently. AA = Alcoa.
2) I hold some LAC. But I admit to not being so knowledgeable on Lithium.
3) What do you like so much about Lithium?

1 of 5 companies the GOV owns a piece of. Lithium is tricky (See the 5 year on ALB/SQM). LAC has most if not all regulatory/native squabbles approved. They are aggressively bringing the heavy equipment to mine. I should have posted the link to the earnings/prospectus. Currently $5. They are on the cusp of being the sole domesticated Lithium mine. When the mine becomes productive KABOOM!! Lot's of room on the upside. Once again check out ALB in the last 2 years (Posted prior at 50). ALB is tied/affiliated to China/Chile ... which have their own geopolitical risks.

I'm in at $4 CB.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

MAD, you're a fountain of information. Investing is always speculative. We never know for sure.

Presenting this video on Lithium:

...My take is that not a lot of people know about Lithium. If you're Bullish on Lithium, I think you should believe in your conviction.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Metals have been very interesting. Some trading days where the board is almost all Red...except Metals in Green.

[raiders72001]

Next bull run the prediction is to want coins getting the most pub in quantum resistance along with DePin and RWA.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. MAD, you know I respect your opinion.

Will be watching the markets this week. Let's see if the Iran attack has any impact.

Will the BTC price move? And what about Metals?

[Optional]

Next bull run the prediction is to want coins getting the most pub in quantum resistance along with DePin and RWA.

Thnaks

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Bump. MAD, you know I respect your opinion.

Will be watching the markets this week. Let's see if the Iran attack has any impact.

Will the BTC price move? And what about Metals?

Will respond to my own Q. No agenda. What responded today?

+ = BTC and MSTR. Gas/Oil/Energy stocks.

- (a little) = Dow Jones avg. Metals (like Ag/Cu).

[raiders72001]

I posted in the other thread that this run I'm looking at coins getting the most pub with quantum resistance along with DePin and RWA.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

This guy was very interesting.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Not saying this IS or ISN'T. Litmus test in real-time: *Is BTC a flight-to-safety safe haven asset?

Look at price this morning. 71,500. Not judging: anecdotally, I keep hearing about governments accumulating.

[ProSportsEdge]

Saylor was on CNBC this am. Apparently his CB is circa76K. Maybe you can see on Youtube, or wherever. They kept pressuring him on pain threshold and he just kept reiterating, 'I'll just borrow more $$ and buy more"???

Hope you are holding your LAC??

GOV also has their fingers in USAR, which is right up your alley (rare earths/magnets). Up a ton though so tread careful.

Yeah I saw that too. Michael Saylor never really flinches and just keeps saying he will buy more no matter what. You have to respect the conviction even if it is not everyone’s style. In markets like this I would rather stay patient and pick my spots instead of chasing. Patience usually wins in the long run.

[raiders72001]

Huge day today. It'll be interesting to watch the price during this Iran war.

[Madison]

Yeah I saw that too. Michael Saylor never really flinches and just keeps saying he will buy more no matter what. You have to respect the conviction even if it is not everyone’s style. In markets like this I would rather stay patient and pick my spots instead of chasing. Patience usually wins in the long run.

Agreed!! BOL Bud.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

[ChuckyTheGoat]

By the way, I'm not questioning Madison's opinion. I'm just presenting information.

Will make two points:
1) Even now, Bitcoin price carries a huge Kurtosis. The volatility leads to massive fat-tail action.
2) In the markets, one has to think about where people are lining up. Contrarian opinion (against the masses) often has value.

[Optional]

I had nice timing with a reasonable size buy at 64K before the bounce. Had sold all I had in the mid 90s.

I need another dip in the next month or so to load up on some more.



Article talking about what might be behind the bounce;


Bitcoin rebounds towards $73K, and here’s what underlies the rally.

Bitcoin’s resurgence this week has been rapid.

The world’s largest digital currency has since rocketed back toward $73,000 after dropping to about $63,000 after the weekend U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran. That level is its strongest in almost a month.

At first glance, the move appears to be a straightforward risk bounce. But several factors are converging on the rally, and they extend beyond simply traders buying the dip.


ETF money is flowing back in

The most pressing impetus is institutional interest.

Fund flow data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs collected over $680 million in the last two days. That’s among the biggest inflow spikes since January and implies that bigger investors took advantage of the geopolitical selloff to buy in.

These ETFs have emerged as the primary artery linking Wall Street capital with Bitcoin since their launch. Price tends to follow flows when they are accelerating.

This week is another illustration of that dynamic.


Markets are wagering the war won’t snowball

Bitcoin’s weekend fall came at a time when markets feared a broader regional war following the strikes against Iran.

Those worries have not gone away, but traders are more recently starting to price in a limited conflict.

Global equities have rebounded from an initial shock, and oil has stabilized around $75 a barrel. That change in risk sentiment is giving crypto space to move higher once again.

Bitcoin has historically sold off during sudden geopolitical shocks only to rebound as markets reassess.


Crypto policy momentum in Washington

Politics, too, is encroaching on the narrative.

In the United States, the Senate is gearing up to vote on President Donald Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve, a candidate believed to be favorable towards Bitcoin and digital assets.

Separately, Trump this week rendered a public endorsement of the crypto industry’s fight against banks over yield-bearing stablecoins.

For markets, the bottom line is clear: Washington may be headed in a more crypto-friendly direction.


Liquidity expectations are shifting again

One other less-talked-about factor is the macro backdrop.

Fresh economic data on U.S. inflation showed it cooling somewhat in the services sector. That has rekindled chatter that the Federal Reserve will eventually shift back toward easing later in the year.
Bitcoin reacts violently to changes in liquidity expectations historically. When traders think the Fed might ease policy eventually, risk assets like crypto in particular often catch a bid.


Traders had already adjusted for a rebound

Finally, positioning mattered.

The decline in bitcoin to $63,000 led to heavy liquidation in derivative markets based on leverage. After that selling pressure lifted, traders were left with a thinner order book and space for prices to snap quickly back.

Open interest has been building back up since then, implying traders are once again leaning long.


The bigger picture

Add it all up and the rally becomes less of a mystery.

ETF inflows and improving risk sentiment, along with policy momentum in Washington and shifting liquidity expectations, all converged at once.

That mix has sent Bitcoin back toward $73,000, and reminded markets that in crypto, the bounce can arrive just as quickly as the drop.

---

If the Middle East conflict escalates, what happens to Bitcoin?

1. It rallies like gold
2. It trades like a risk asset
3. It becomes a capital escape
4. Hard to predict

[Madison]

Seems stuck 64K-70K??? What's the impetus to move higher or lower???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Seems stuck 64K-70K??? What's the impetus to move higher or lower???

Hey, MAD. Circling back on this. A few thoughts:
1) I would rarely say that BTC price is "stuck" in a range.
2) One truth about Bitcoin is that it's a high Kurtosis investment. The volatility is much MORE than any normal Asset (except maybe Ag Silver).
3) I strongly recommend a prospective BTC investor to study the risk.
4) How many hours of study? At least 100 hours. But one can go down a rabbit hole on this thing.
5) My last point (for now) is to ponder the Fixed Supply. Greater than 95% of the ALL-TIME supply has been issued. Wrap your head around that and think about whether Bitcoin might be deflationary.

[Madison]

5) My last point (for now) is to ponder the Fixed Supply. Greater than 95% of the ALL-TIME supply has been issued. Wrap your head around that and think about whether Bitcoin might be deflationary.

I don't think my head/intellect has enough left to fathom this.

What is 95% of nothing?? I'm 100% wrong here to date so???

[ChuckyTheGoat]

20 Million-th coin mined. I don't care what people think. It's a big deal:

[Optional]

I think the finite supply factor is being priced into BTC as we move along and there wont be any point in time where that produces a big bump we can predict.

And whilst not being able to mint more is a confidence factor for long term investors, that fact that it it is infinitely divisible means there is no supply shortage associated with the end of minting like there can be with real world assets.

Maybe some retail excitement to trade on as the day approaches and shortly afterward but personally I cant see the end of new minted supply being a big event.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I think the finite supply factor is being priced into BTC as we move along and there wont be any point in time where that produces a big bump we can predict.

And whilst not being able to mint more is a confidence factor for long term investors, that fact that it it is infinitely divisible means there is no supply shortage associated with the end of minting like there can be with real world assets.

Maybe some retail excitement to trade on as the day approaches and shortly afterward but personally I cant see the end of new minted supply being a big event.

Respect your opinion, Opti. And thx for the post.

I tend to disagree. Just my opinion. This means that buyers/sellers are trading with the current supply.

Juxtapose that w/ the USD. Politicians can turn on the printing-press. They do it all the time.

Spectrum of opinions is wide on the BTC topic. That's cool, that makes a market. I do think you have a good point on it possibly being (somewhat) factored into future price.

Guys who hit it clean were the early-buyers. Wow, they cleaned up.