Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat
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u should dive into my fade thread. fades hot. were winners 9 out of 11 plays against himComment -
Looks like BC is struggling to hold circa 66K. Just be careful (stop loss?) if it persists below. A few intelligent, former bulls, suggesting a break of 60-66 could see the 40's. Pretty scary when you consider all of the leveraged $$ which could divest.
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Penny for Saylor's thoughts.Originally posted by MadisonWhere's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
The problem is he has no one to hold him accountable. Egotistical maniac with no guardrails.Originally posted by stevenashComment -
He did extensive interview on CNBC Mon/Tue??Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
It's the normal cycle. BTC is the highest gaining asset class 3 years in a row and then there's a dump. That's all you really have to know about bitcoin. The rest is noise.Comment -
....Comment -
It's due to the halving every 4 years. Miner rewards get cut in half.Comment -
Can you predict the halving every 4 years? If it is predictable, then why not sell all your bitcoin at the max price and wait until it halves and buy back twice as many for the same amount of money. Seems like an easy way to make money if this 4 year pattern holds.Originally posted by raiders72001Comment -
Newsom?Originally posted by MadisonComment -
Yes, it's predictable. 1 block is mined approximately every 10 minutes and after 210,000 blocks are mined there's a halving.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
To add the bull run doesn't start on the exact day of the halving. It starts some time before. We don't know exactly when it starts or when it ends nor can anyone predict the all time high or low. We just know approximately there will be 3 good years and one bad year.
To make money in bear markets swing trade on current news.Comment -
Don't ask questions like this. We'd all be rich it our btc experts understood. It certainly has an impact and I believe well advertised.Originally posted by pavyracer
Why were not profiting???Comment -
It doesn't have some, it's the only thing that counts. Check out the bitcoin forum.Originally posted by MadisonComment -
Percentage drop each cycle top to bottom.
86%
84%
77%
48% currentlyComment -
It never hit the parabolic run but this was the start of the bear market.
"10-07-25, 03:18 PM
We should get a parabolic run and then the bear market."Comment -
The problem is that no one knows when it ends or how low the price goes. It could end tomorrow or it could end in 8 months.Comment -
One always sounds smarter AFTER they make a score. Forecasting the future is much harder.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Some of you might be interested in the below article from seekingalpha.com
Strategy executive chairman and founder Michael Saylor said the company (MSTR) will continue purchasing Bitcoin (BTC-USD) indefinitely, revealing plans to buy “every quarter forever” despite the cryptocurrency trading under $70,000 amid recent market volatility.
The firm recently added approximately $90M worth of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) to its holdings, doubling down while other investors have grown nervous about price fluctuations.
In an interview with CNBC, Saylor characterized Bitcoin (BTC-USD) as “digital capital” that will naturally experience two to four times the volatility of traditional assets like gold (XAUUSD:CUR), equity (SP500), (COMP:IND), (DJI), or real estate.
He framed this characteristic as an advantage rather than a liability, stating “the volatility is the bug, but the volatility is the feature.”
Saylor said that Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) superior performance this decade directly correlates with its higher volatility, making it the foundation for what he calls “digital credit.”
Addressing concerns that Strategy could be forced to sell its bitcoin holdings if prices continue declining, Saylor dismissed such worries as unfounded.
“The truth is our net leverage ratio is half the typical investment grade company,” he said, noting the company maintains two and a half years of cash reserves to cover both dividends and debt obligations. Even in an extreme scenario where Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 90% over four years, Saylor maintained the company would simply refinance its debt rather than liquidate holdings.
Saylor pointed to a broader market evolution where Wall Street banks and digital credit instruments will increasingly drive Bitcoin’s (BTC-USD) price dynamics. He argued that as major financial institutions like Citi, Schwab, JPMorgan, and BNY Mellon roll out credit products against Bitcoin, their influence will exceed that of miners by a factor of ten.
When asked about Strategy’s stock (MSTR) declining 60% over the past year, Saylor explained the company is “engineered to be amplified Bitcoin,” meaning it rises faster when Bitcoin increases and falls harder during downturns.
He noted the stock’s extraordinary liquidity and open interest exceed that of major technology companies by factors of two to four, creating opportunities for the company’s financial instruments.
Rather than making short-term price predictions, Saylor emphasized a multi-year investment horizon. “I think the Bitcoin is going to double the triple the performance of the S&P (SP500) over the next four to eight years, and I think that’s the only thing we need to know,” he said, urging investors to adopt at least a four-year perspective when evaluating digital capital.
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The only thing that I know is the bitcoin forum will be rocking again in the 4th Q 2026.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
Thanks for the explanation. I think what you are saying is there is a 4 year cycle when it goes down but you don't know where the downturn starts or when it ends. So what do you suggest in doing now? Should we buy more or should we wait for it to get lower?Originally posted by raiders72001Comment -
Wait 6-8 months and then buy for 3 years.Originally posted by pavyracerComment -
Discovered Bitcoin/Blockchain on flight to Hilton Head 1986. Quite frankly, everyone looked at me like I was wacked. I did little thereafter as I didn't have anyone to commiserate with.
Sometime 2022? I bought ETH/BTC. ETH circa 1500? I took a small hit and decided keeping my investments to what I understood and could adequately explain was prudent. Turn the clock forward 4 years and I feel like I'm back to 2022 with ETH hovering slightly above 1600/1700 ??.Comment -
Do any of you worry/understand the relationship to Quantum and the Blockchain. i have a cybersecurity background and am fascinated with cryptography and Quantum's potential to disrupt/decrypt security keys/algorithms. The predominant company there is the next NVidea.
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Hello Satoshi!Originally posted by Madison.Comment -
Ha-ha-ha. Very subtle.Originally posted by Optional
MAD might be Satoshi's dad. 1986 is WAY b4 the white-paper.
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
I'm with you there, Madison. My interest in sports and betting sports is not what it once was for various reasons. I scratch most of my gambling itch just watching the daily ups/downs of stock/crypto accounts. I can go weeks now without betting on a game which was not the case a decade ago.Originally posted by MadisonNothing goes up forever and you can never go broke making a profit. That is all for today
Been preaching same since inception. Essentially , why I've gambled millions plus and still standing.
Nowadays many of you are banging your heads wagering on people with a collaborative IQ of what 60?? And what incentive?
I'm winning and losing 1000's a day in the stock market. My interest in sports wagering has waned year over year. There was once a time we had a real chance, not much any longer.Comment -
Props to Optional. He did go about that in a smooth way.Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoatComment -
Apologies ... Don't ask how I turned 2016 into 1986?????Originally posted by Optional
A brain that used to do 3 tasks 99.999% correct 30 years ago and now ... well that post says it all. Problem is that at times I still think it's 30 years ago and you see the results. I think LOL????Comment -
No worries, MAD. That would have been one HELL of a story if you invented it 30 years early!Originally posted by Madison
BTW, there's a pretty strong link on John Nash>>>SATOSHI. If Nash WASN'T Satoshi, then there are strong links. At a minimum they were studying the same topics at a similar point in time.Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment -
Cycle (Halving Year) Peak Price (High) Peak Date Cycle Low Price Cycle Low Date Days Between Peak and Cycle Low Drawdown % (approx.) Current Drawdown % (from Peak) 2012 Halving Cycle $1,163 November 30, 2013 $177 January 14, 2015 410 -85% Historical 2016 Halving Cycle $19,666 December 17, 2017 $3,122 December 15, 2018 363 -84% Historical 2020 Halving Cycle $68,789 November 10, 2021 $15,599 November 21, 2022 376 -77% Historical 2024 Halving Cycle (so far) $126,272 October 6, 2025 Not confirmed N/A N/A N/A ~ -46.4% (as of Feb 20, 2026; BTC ~$67,734) Comment -
Cycle (Halving Year) Peak Price (High) Peak Date Cycle Low Price Cycle Low Date Days Peak to Cycle Low Drawdown % (Peak to Low) Current Drawdown % (from Peak) 2012 Halving Cycle $1,163 Nov 30, 2013 $177 Jan 14, 2015 410 -85% Historical 2016 Halving Cycle $19,666 Dec 17, 2017 $3,122 Dec 15, 2018 363 -84% Historical 2020 Halving Cycle $68,789 Nov 10, 2021 $15,599 Nov 21, 2022 376 -77% Historical 2024 Halving Cycle (so far) $126,272 Oct 6, 2025 Not confirmed N/A N/A N/A ~-46% to -50% (BTC ~$67K–$68K today) Comment -
I guess that suggests it should get down to around 25k before the end of this year. if the pattern holds.Originally posted by raiders72001.Comment -
when in doubt, zoom out
(and hodl)Comment -
This is one of my favorite graphs. There's NEVER an over-lap from the 4-year prior. I think the lowest 4-year Ratio is ~ 1.40. So, current of 1.50 is very much on the low-end:Originally posted by MalikHusam
Where's the fuckin power box, Carol?Comment
