Washington 60% - This is not a promising spot for Colorado. O'Connor is likely to throw a slightly better game than Fogg, and then Washington's edge in the pen for this game and their home edge combine to give them a significant likelihood of victory.
Detroit 66% - McClung has been bad recently but is likely to get a bit better in the future and this is a slightly better spot for him than it might seem at first glance. Rogers is likely to have another quality start. Both pens are in very bad conditions for this game, which benefits Tampa Bay.
St Louis 58% - There is a high degree of uncertainty with both starters today. Carpenter is likely to regain his past form sometime soon but it is not at all certain that he will do so here. Perez is unlikely to have a strong outing, although statistically we have no strong indications of that, which is probably due to the unclear causes of his problems, which are manifest in his command and party his velocity as well.
Yankees 56% - Wang has been very strong at home although this spot is a little dangerous for him. Byrd has been fairly consistent and effective recently but this is also a spot where he is more likely than normal to get hit. A high-scoring close game benefits the Yankees slightly.
Mets 54% - Madson has had a high degree of volatility this year which does not bode well for him here. Glavine has been very consistent this year although he is likely to perform worse as the season goes on. Statistically, the Mets rate a big edge, but situationally, Philadelphia does. Those competing edges lend a high degree of uncertainty to this game.
Toronto 79% - Everything supports Toronto here. Halladay is likely to have a strong game, and the Toronto lineup is likely to hit well.
Atlanta 53% - Atlanta will continue to be vulnerable due to their pen dragging them down. Statistically, Smoltz is likely to give up a handful of runs again. Johnson is likely to experience a downturn in his performances soon, and this could be the first one.
Detroit 66% - McClung has been bad recently but is likely to get a bit better in the future and this is a slightly better spot for him than it might seem at first glance. Rogers is likely to have another quality start. Both pens are in very bad conditions for this game, which benefits Tampa Bay.
St Louis 58% - There is a high degree of uncertainty with both starters today. Carpenter is likely to regain his past form sometime soon but it is not at all certain that he will do so here. Perez is unlikely to have a strong outing, although statistically we have no strong indications of that, which is probably due to the unclear causes of his problems, which are manifest in his command and party his velocity as well.
Yankees 56% - Wang has been very strong at home although this spot is a little dangerous for him. Byrd has been fairly consistent and effective recently but this is also a spot where he is more likely than normal to get hit. A high-scoring close game benefits the Yankees slightly.
Mets 54% - Madson has had a high degree of volatility this year which does not bode well for him here. Glavine has been very consistent this year although he is likely to perform worse as the season goes on. Statistically, the Mets rate a big edge, but situationally, Philadelphia does. Those competing edges lend a high degree of uncertainty to this game.
Toronto 79% - Everything supports Toronto here. Halladay is likely to have a strong game, and the Toronto lineup is likely to hit well.
Atlanta 53% - Atlanta will continue to be vulnerable due to their pen dragging them down. Statistically, Smoltz is likely to give up a handful of runs again. Johnson is likely to experience a downturn in his performances soon, and this could be the first one.
