Chaz's 2012 MLB

[CHAZ]

I hate pushes. Only thing worse than a push is a loss

Haha true are words

[Derty D]

I think the highest I've bet this season is -125. I'd have to go back and check through the spreadsheet. I've seen them go as high as -140.


The ML is easier for the books to adjust then the actual total. They have little room to move numbers, especially off of the key numbers (7 9 11). About 30% of baseball games end with those key numbers so you can see why they're important. So instead of coming off a number they just raise the juice. Sometimes I view high juice as the books standing there ground, that they don't wanna move it so they juice it to hell and make you pay for it if you want it.

Generally, though before I view the lines I have an idea at what I think it should be and go from there. Most plays arent based on line movement alone. You can't always believe it. I study the team, ump, stadium and weather then make my way to the lines.

Hopefully, I answered your question. If its all mumbled up sorry

Thank you very much for your clear reply. I really appreciate it.

[CHAZ]

1x St. Louis Cardinals +122

[CHAZ]

Wednesday June 27
1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)

2x Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals Over 9 (-120)

1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 (-115)

1x Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Over 7 (-120)

1x St. Louis Cardinals +122

1-3 (-2.13 units)



136-94 (+36.49 units)

[ghislaine]

Still up a lot of units ! Onboard tonight with all Your plays, got lucky and skipped them last night since at a bar for the Eurosoccer game..

[ghislaine]

Just went through my betting history and seems just Your picks have taken me from 120$ to almost 380$.
That's just the money I am betting for Your picks. That is pretty insane

Upping the units giving to You, let's get paid again tonight !!!

[Tofudog]

Rough day for ya Chaz.. It especially sucks when you decide to fade the Marlins and they finally win a game.. My homegirl ghislaine and I are still your groupies though.

Just a question but wouldn't yesterday put you at -2.4 units instead of 2.13?

[CHAZ]

Rough day for ya Chaz.. It especially sucks when you decide to fade the Marlins and they finally win a game.. My homegirl ghislaine and I are still your groupies though.

Just a question but wouldn't yesterday put you at -2.4 units instead of 2.13?

1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)
-1

1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 (-115)
+.87

1x Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Over 7 (-120)
-1

1x St. Louis Cardinals +122
-1


-3 + .87 = -2.13 (spreadsheet agrees)

How did you come up with 2.4?



Lets hope to recover today and make some $$$ back.

[CHAZ]

Thursday June 28
1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8½ (-120)

[Vasco]

What do you guys think of Cueto vs Bumgarner? I don't like fading either guy, but Cueto at plus money is enticing. Angels are hot, does anyone trust the bats to bail out Haren?

[Tofudog]

1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)
-1.2

1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 (-115)
+1

1x Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Over 7 (-120)
-1.2

1x St. Louis Cardinals +122
-1

1.2+1-1.2-1=-2.4 in my eyes.
I hadn't realized that you do it by risking the same amount. I guess when you lay -120 and I lay -120, I actually end up winning more if it wins. And if it loses I lose 1.2 units while you only lose 1... Just different methods

[ghislaine]

Isn't this thread the cutest thing
Everybody is so civil and polite. Chaz posts the picks, we who choose tail and make money.
Every now and then some pleasantries are exchanged and good discussion about the plays.

One of the only threads where we see no trolling !!
Keep stackin' them dollars Tofu !!!

[ghislaine]

Thursday June 28
1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8½ (-120)

Chaz hon, is this the only day game ?
Nothing on COL WAS ??
Going to be at the bar again for Eurosoccer so be back in time for night games

[ghislaine]

Damn betus

Got it over 9...

Can You maybe give some insight into this pick Chaz so I'll know if it still looks good.

[Vinnie Paz]

Just checking into this thread for the first time, Chaz excellent work thus far. I'll keep an eye out for some of your picks from now on, and ghislaine I agree with your above post, quite little thread you have going, one of few that seems to be troll-free. Ghislaine you seem like a class act as well, keep it up Chaz & good luck to all

[Tofudog]

Damn betus

Got it over 9...

Can You maybe give some insight into this pick Chaz so I'll know if it still looks good.

Well I'm not Chaz, but from what Ive been learning he would probably suggest you still take it because there is so much money on over that it went from -120 to -130 in my book at 8.5. Last time the numbers moved up like that was that Yankees game where the homers were flying left and right. He also thinks 9 is an important number and the fact they moved up to 9 is showing that its the right side.

Chaz would also probably say something like, "Well its your money so its your decision. The only difference is you are laying less juice and would have to deal with a push if the final result is 9 runs."

[ghislaine]

Good stuff Tofu. On it !

[CHAZ]

I hadn't realized that you do it by risking the same amount. I guess when you lay -120 and I lay -120, I actually end up winning more if it wins. And if it loses I lose 1.2 units while you only lose 1... Just different methods

Everything I post is to risk. So 1x is risking 1 unit to win _____

Nothing wrong with your way, I dont really bet alot of dogs(moneylines) and most of the time the totals don't have plus odds so its really just a habit to risk everything.

Nothing on COL WAS ??

I think I like the OVER here.

[Tofudog]

I doubled up on my bet so if it loses Im right there with ya

[CHAZ]

Well I'm not Chaz, but from what Ive been learning he would probably suggest you still take it because there is so much money on over that it went from -120 to -130 in my book at 8.5. Last time the numbers moved up like that was that Yankees game where the homers were flying left and right. He also thinks 9 is an important number and the fact they moved up to 9 is showing that its the right side.

Chaz would also probably say something like, "Well its your money so its your decision. The only difference is you are laying less juice and would have to deal with a push if the final result is 9 runs."

Pretty much, BUT moving from a key number is where it matters. The Yankees moved from 9 to 9.5.

[CHAZ]

Just checking into this thread for the first time, Chaz excellent work thus far. I'll keep an eye out for some of your picks from now on, and ghislaine I agree with your above post, quite little thread you have going, one of few that seems to be troll-free. Ghislaine you seem like a class act as well, keep it up Chaz & good luck to all

[CHAZ]

Damn betus

Got it over 9...

Can You maybe give some insight into this pick Chaz so I'll know if it still looks good.

Kendrick gives up BP and with the depleted bullpen he is gonna have to stay in for awhile even when he starts to blowup. We have to count on the Pirates to score us runs today. They are a very scrappy team too and have been hitting too. Hopefully the Phillies can squeeze something in.

[Tofudog]

Yeah I was actually just thinking that. I guess before, with it moving off of 9, that was an automatic signal. In this case one might not want to take 9 when it moves to it because it is a key number. Your saying from 8.5-9 is essentially only half the "right-side-indicator" that from 9-9.5 would be, correct?

I sort of feel the most important thing can be the line movement though and not necessarily getting better "value" (in one's eyes) with half a run either way...

On the other side, I would say it going from 8.5 -120 to 8.5 -130 and then to 9 -110 is fairly significant though..

[Ralphie Halves]

Isn't this thread the cutest thing
Everybody is so civil and polite. Chaz posts the picks, we who choose tail and make money.
Every now and then some pleasantries are exchanged and good discussion about the plays.

One of the only threads where we see no trolling !!

I've noticed that too, which is great, but all of these threads have a similar sequence when it comes to deterioration, and I'm already seeing the early symptoms. Chaz probably knows better than to let that happen, but I'm cautious.

BOL guys, keep up the prosperity.

[CHAZ]

Yeah I was actually just thinking that. I guess before, with it moving off of 9, that was an automatic signal. In this case one might not want to take 9 when it moves to it because it is a key number. Your saying from 8.5-9 is essentially only half the "right-side-indicator" that from 9-9.5 would be, correct?

I sort of feel the most important thing can be the line movement though and not necessarily getting better "value" (in one's eyes) with half a run either way...

On the other side, I would say it going from 8.5 -120 to 8.5 -130 and then to 9 -110 is fairly significant though..

Honestly, here 8 was the right number to take. I personally figure I can live with 8.5 though. Either way I have to win by 9.

Going across the key number is a significant money move. I can't preach to much about the value of the numbers because as you can see I constantly miss out on the best possible number. I could just pass when I miss the exact number I want but I'd hardly have any plays lol. If I get bored one of these days id like to go back and see how many more units I would of won with the best number. How much getting a bad number cost me even more units won.

Feel free to ask away if I'm not clear though

[Tofudog]

I appreciate the fact you take the time to write up on the line movements. Its funny you said that because I always catch it later since I'm half-blindly following your advice. Like today I have o8.5 -125 instead of -120. Its been consistently happening that way but I can't complain because your picks have been winning. It seems like 75% of ones with line movement like that are winners. I almost want to try to devise a system which you bet on the ones with -10 or +10 line movement in the direction which gives less "value".

Still a small sample size though..

Game is starting.. lets get it!

Also line is o9 -115 right now!

[ghislaine]

Looking good, at 7 top 6th

[hougigo]

Go pirates

[Tofudog]

Still looking good but nothing like 3HR/7 runs in the first two innings and only 1 in the next five innings. I doubled up on this game and its certainly raising my blood pressure. I think we still have it though..

Cant believe there isn't a "fingers crossed" smily... so I had to go with some squirrel taking a leak

[CHAZ]

I don't like jinxing myself lol

7 in the first 3 innings and it still 8 to get to 9 phew

[ghislaine]

LOOK AT YOU CHAZ



Please guys, help me out and hope Phillies are looking to even out so my over 9 wins too !
I am so going to kick myself if we can't get another run.

But congrats to You !

[ghislaine]

Push, oh well

[hougigo]

Push, oh well

Better than a loss, worse than a win

[Tofudog]

I know! I didn't want to say too much. Squeaked by on that play and followed your over lean on WAS/COL so all is looking great so far!

[Tofudog]

And Was/Col is already over!!!!