Chaz's 2012 MLB

[msetai]

hey Chaz, the over on the yankee game is 9.5 for me, would you still take this or stay out?

[CHAZ]

I thought it should be 10 anyways. Also to go from 9 to 9.5 says the over is the right side. That's a strong move.

BUT

I don't wanna tell anyone how they should bet or if they should play something. It's your money your call. GL bud!

[msetai]

thanks for the tip, bol

[Tofudog]

You have been on fire recently so I hope your tiny vacation won't effect your picks. Good luck!

[Tofudog]

Looking good so far Chaz. Like usual, the two plays (Mil and LAA) that I didn't tail are looking good

[Vasco]

hey Chaz, the over on the yankee game is 9.5 for me, would you still take this or stay out?

I hate making moves like this. Of course since you think the total will go over, you assume over 9.5 is the same as over 9. But it hurts too much when the game ends at 9 and you lose instead of push.

[CHAZ]

Haha! How lucky did we get with clev?!!

[lilb999]

Any picks for the late games?

[CHAZ]

The under in SANFRAN if I had to pick one

[ghislaine]

3-3

Seems even is as bad as You'll ever go.
Uneffinfortunately for me, had a Twin Peaks marathon with boyf, dozed off and missed the over game, as well as another winner You had, so went 1-2...

Oh well, need to pay more attention

Super duper alert tonight ! Keep attacking the books good man

[CHAZ]

No worries we'll get it back

[CHAZ]

Tuesday June 26
1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Under 7½ (-115)
1x Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers Under 10
1x Toronto Blue Jays vs. (922) Boston Red Sox Under 11
1x Los Angeles Angels vs. (918) Baltimore Orioles Under 8½
1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. (904) Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ (-105)
1x Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees Over 9

3-3 (-.23 units)




135-91 (+38.62 units)

[CHAZ]

Wednesday June 27
1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)
Greinke absolutely owns Cincy. I am a tad nervous with Bailey pitching, though. No Ryan Braun so hopefully that helps our cause.

[Derty D]

Hello CHAZ, good luck on your play(s) today. If you would be so kind to reply and answer a quick question...

Being that totals are set to be pretty close to where the MLB game ends, it is safe to say it is roughly a 50-50 proposition on betting the over-under. This, of course, is the sportbooks' opinion on what the public thinks the line should be to illicit equal betting on both sides. I usually do not bet totals with ML's over -120. What is your take on betting totals with high money lines? What was the highest ML you'd ever bet on a total?

Thanks in advance,

Derty D

[CHAZ]

Hello CHAZ, good luck on your play(s) today. If you would be so kind to reply and answer a quick question...

Being that totals are set to be pretty close to where the MLB game ends, it is safe to say it is roughly a 50-50 proposition on betting the over-under. This, of course, is the sportbooks' opinion on what the public thinks the line should be to illicit equal betting on both sides. I usually do not bet totals with ML's over -120. What is your take on betting totals with high money lines? What was the highest ML you'd ever bet on a total?

Thanks in advance,

Derty D

I think the highest I've bet this season is -125. I'd have to go back and check through the spreadsheet. I've seen them go as high as -140.


The ML is easier for the books to adjust then the actual total. They have little room to move numbers, especially off of the key numbers (7 9 11). About 30% of baseball games end with those key numbers so you can see why they're important. So instead of coming off a number they just raise the juice. Sometimes I view high juice as the books standing there ground, that they don't wanna move it so they juice it to hell and make you pay for it if you want it.

Generally, though before I view the lines I have an idea at what I think it should be and go from there. Most plays arent based on line movement alone. You can't always believe it. I study the team, ump, stadium and weather then make my way to the lines.

Hopefully, I answered your question. If its all mumbled up sorry

[CHAZ]

I think the highest I've bet this season is -125. I'd have to go back and check through the spreadsheet. I've seen them go as high as -140.


The ML is easier for the books to adjust then the actual total. They have little room to move numbers, especially off of the key numbers (7 9 11). About 30% of baseball games end with those key numbers so you can see why they're important. So instead of coming off a number they just raise the juice. Sometimes I view high juice as the books standing there ground, that they don't wanna move it so they juice it to hell and make you pay for it if you want it.

Generally, though before I view the lines I have an idea at what I think it should be and go from there. Most plays arent based on line movement alone. You can't always believe it. I study the team, ump, stadium and weather then make my way to the lines.

Hopefully, I answered your question. If its all mumbled up sorry

Look at the Yankees total today...

Opened at 9 and moved to 9.5 with 65-70% on the UNDER.

Derek Jeter is on rest today

Yet the total still moved off of this key number in the opposite way of the public. Now I gotta decide if I'm ok with 9.5 since I missed 9.

[ghislaine]

Wednesday June 27
1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)
Greinke absolutely owns Cincy. I am a tad nervous with Bailey pitching, though. No Ryan Braun so hopefully that helps our cause.

My book's got it at ( betus ) 7 1/2...
Thinking I need to skip it, whadda ya think Chaz ?

[CHAZ]

My book's got it at ( betus ) 7 1/2...
Thinking I need to skip it, whadda ya think Chaz ?

I was hesitant at 8. Cincy day temps and a hitters park along with Bailey being a FB pitcher.

[Tofudog]

My book's got it at ( betus ) 7 1/2...
Thinking I need to skip it, whadda ya think Chaz ?

I took 7.5 at -110 and after I placed my bet it went to -105 which is irritating but yours might move down too

[hougigo]

My book's got it at ( betus ) 7 1/2...
Thinking I need to skip it, whadda ya think Chaz ?

Same here

[ghislaine]

Thought as much, skipping...

Thanks man

[CHAZ]

Keep an eye on it, who knows maybe it'll drift back up

[eleuropeano]

Wednesday June 27
1x Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Under 8 (-120)
Greinke absolutely owns Cincy. I am a tad nervous with Bailey pitching, though. No Ryan Braun so hopefully that helps our cause.

Hey Chaz, just a question, if you think Greinke will own Cincy and with Bailey making you nervous, aren't you considering the Brewers moneyline at -110?

[CHAZ]

Hey Chaz, just a question, if you think Greinke will own Cincy and with Bailey making you nervous, aren't you considering the Brewers moneyline at -110?

Totals are my thing. I've done pretty good with them. Also, just cause Greinke owns Cincy doesn't mean its a clear cut win. Cincy has a better bullpen so the advantage goes to them later in the game. How long do you think Greinke is gonna last in 90 degree weather on a sunny day? If had to choose a side I think I would go with CIN as a dog at home.

[CHAZ]

2x Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals Over 9 (-120)
Line is about to move up

[eleuropeano]

Totals are my thing. I've done pretty good with them. Also, just cause Greinke owns Cincy doesn't mean its a clear cut win. Cincy has a better bullpen so the advantage goes to them later in the game. How long do you think Greinke is gonna last in 90 degree weather on a sunny day? If had to choose a side I think I would go with CIN as a dog at home.

I think that's an understatement.
Thanks for taking time to explain, I'm new to baseball betting and just trying to understand.

[CHAZ]

I think that's an understatement.
Thanks for taking time to explain, I'm new to baseball betting and just trying to understand.

Anytime

[CHAZ]

1x Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies Over 8 (-115)

[Tofudog]

3 runs already.. starting to second guess taking 7.5.. Lets hope that Cinci gets shut out 5-0 or something like that..

[CHAZ]

3 runs already.. starting to second guess taking 7.5.. Lets hope that Cinci gets shut out 5-0 or something like that..

Its done. Baileys ball is flying like I was afraid of.

[hougigo]

If the score sticks you are a hero

[CHAZ]

They just had to drag that out...

[CHAZ]

1x Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Over 7 (-120)



Looking like one of those days, tread lightly.

[CHAZ]

I can't believe all the double plays in the KC/TAM game. 6! Lol gah atleast it pushed

[eleuropeano]

I hate pushes. Only thing worse than a push is a loss