Red's corner - Talkin' baseball 4/16

[No coincidences]

To you Mets backers...I have to assume you think Gee is gonna shut down the Braves if you aren't on that over. You think the Mets hold the Braves under 4 today?

Not sure if I'll play this game or not -- I just know that Hanson's not worth -165 against similar competition.

[YOUNGBUCK]

ya dont really trust Garcia thinkin of goin with yanks tt over

[YOUNGBUCK]

really lookin at the under in the Oakland game

[Redscot]

really lookin at the under in the Oakland game

No Cespedes, for whatever that's worth....

[BigBoi]

Like Angels even more if no Cespedes.

[YOUNGBUCK]

u like under there Red anyone know the wind or ump?

[Redscot]

u like under there Red anyone know the wind or ump?

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/?MR=1

Doesn't look like wind or weather should be much of a factor. Waiting on the ump, but do lean under there atm.

[Redscot]

Looks like some serious wind blowing out in Chicago and Washington.

http://www.wunderground.com/sports/MLB/hometeam/Washington:Nationals.html?st=1334603100

I think the Nat's knock around Wieland tonight.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Id like that over if i could trust the cubs to get a hit but still would b a good bet IMO

[YOUNGBUCK]

i pulled trigger In La under for 1u

[ebbearsfb1]

Nothing wrong with laying chalk coin as long as your willing to pick your spots... yankees and rangers are the few teams at home I'm willing to lay it with... teams that are able to score runs that you aren't sweating a 1 0 lead in the 8th inninng

[Redscot]

Id like that over if i could trust the cubs to get a hit but still would b a good bet IMO

I think you meant the 'Stros. Regarding the 'Stros, it is early in the season, but they have actually been doing a good job of working counts and creating runs....just a bunch of no names atm. Check out their BB% atm and Wrc+.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=nl&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=16,d

[YOUNGBUCK]

ya its true they do look better J.D Martinez is gonna be a stud

[Bcatswin]

Interesting thread.

Just picked up J.D. on my Fantasy team. Any early leans for tomorrow Red

[YOUNGBUCK]

I drafted JD last rd Bcats

[YOUNGBUCK]

haha anyone watchin Yanks

[ebbearsfb1]

haha anyone watchin Yanks

yup gotta love the captain

[ebbearsfb1]

good thread for me to post in helpful tips that people would actually appericate

[Redscot]

Ump update on first page, that's how I will do it in the future so always check the first post for Umps.

[TC Woods]

First looking in, good to see you have your own thread

Let's get it

[YOUNGBUCK]

Ya everyone that matters on this forum to me has checked in cept Dex and my fam

[Love The Action]

Halladay or Lincecum tonight? Is Timmy really a shell of his former self without the same velocity and a refusal to throw a slider or is he just playing possum? No reason not to believe Halladay fails to show up. Better off with the under?

My model shows we're still getting value on the under at 6 -120. However, it's tough to gauge who Timmy is right now. Perhaps a better pass....? Or a play on Halladay....? Questions, questions, but an under between thee two always worth a shot assuming Timmy can return to form. The problem is that pitchers rarely jump more than 0.9 mph between their opening day velocity and their average velocity for the rest of the season. That tells me Timmy could be in for a long year.

[Redscot]

Halladay or Lincecum tonight? Is Timmy really a shell of his former self without the same velocity and a refusal to throw a slider or is he just playing possum? No reason not to believe Halladay fails to show up. Better off with the under?

My model shows we're still getting value on the under at 6 -120. However, it's tough to gauge who Timmy is right now. Perhaps a better pass....? Or a play on Halladay....? Questions, questions, but an under between thee two always worth a shot assuming Timmy can return to form. The problem is that pitchers rarely jump more than 0.9 mph between their opening day velocity and their average velocity for the rest of the season. That tells me Timmy could be in for a long year.

This! Tough game all around. My mind is so conditioned to Timmy, it is hard to adjust. Phillie's lineup does little to inspire atm as well. I think the best play here would probably be the Phil's....dunno.

[Redscot]

Wieland shucked and jived his way through 5 more or less, but the truth caught up to him.

[Dexter]

Halladay or Lincecum tonight? Is Timmy really a shell of his former self without the same velocity and a refusal to throw a slider or is he just playing possum? No reason not to believe Halladay fails to show up. Better off with the under?

My model shows we're still getting value on the under at 6 -120. However, it's tough to gauge who Timmy is right now. Perhaps a better pass....? Or a play on Halladay....? Questions, questions, but an under between thee two always worth a shot assuming Timmy can return to form. The problem is that pitchers rarely jump more than 0.9 mph between their opening day velocity and their average velocity for the rest of the season. That tells me Timmy could be in for a long year.

now we know why he lasted until the 9th or 10th pick in the 1st round....teams passed on him b/c of his size, and he is already declining at a young age. matt cain is turning into the better long term pitcher. his changeup will always make him a 1a or 2....but he will never again be a dominant ace on a consistent basis the way he was.

a slider is not needed....he already has (had) 3 ++ pitches.....a slider would send him to dr. andrews table in a heartbeat.

[MidgetTossers]

theres always talk about tim being done..im not buying it yet..he has some of the hardest mechanics to fine tune which he hasnt done yet but his track record says he will..his last start he was hitting 93-94 MPH..when you have these funky mechanics and youre off with them this is what happens..i really think people are jumping the gun right now but i could be wrong who knows..the thing that worries me is that he usually figures it out at the end of spring training but he hasnt this year..people expect him to throw 97 MPH like he used to but he hasnt thrown that hard in 3 years or so..should be interesting to see what happens though

[Redscot]

Nice call Met's Backers! ja-ja-ja-ja GEE un-it!

[Love The Action]

theres always talk about tim being done..im not buying it yet..he has some of the hardest mechanics to fine tune which he hasnt done yet but his track record says he will..his last start he was hitting 93-94 MPH..when you have these funky mechanics and youre off with them this is what happens..i really think people are jumping the gun right now but i could be wrong who knows..the thing that worries me is that he usually figures it out at the end of spring training but he hasnt this year..people expect him to throw 97 MPH like he used to but he hasnt thrown that hard in 3 years or so..should be interesting to see what happens though

I think your numbers are way off. Last season Timmy averaged 92 mph on his fastball and in his first start he was at 90 mph.

This article might interest you seeing as you are seemingly a SF fan:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/tim-lincecums-early-season-struggles/

[RoadDog]

Told you bout my boy Gee, Red. I wanted 6 innings 2 earned, he exceeded my expectations.

[Love The Action]

This! Tough game all around. My mind is so conditioned to Timmy, it is hard to adjust. Phillie's lineup does little to inspire atm as well. I think the best play here would probably be the Phil's....dunno.

I agree. Philly looks like a solid play, especially after the price just went down. Although, I tend to think right when everyone rights the guy off is when he shows up with a dominate performance.

[Redscot]

Told you bout my boy Gee, Red. I wanted 6 innings 2 earned, he exceeded my expectations.

I am very pleased that you hit this nail on the head. Ya gotta believe.

[Love The Action]

now we know why he lasted until the 9th or 10th pick in the 1st round....teams passed on him b/c of his size, and he is already declining at a young age. matt cain is turning into the better long term pitcher. his changeup will always make him a 1a or 2....but he will never again be a dominant ace on a consistent basis the way he was.

a slider is not needed....he already has (had) 3 ++ pitches.....a slider would send him to dr. andrews table in a heartbeat.

That slider was NASTY....still, better to adapt than go under the knife. I'm going to reserve judgment as I think all this talk about Timmy's demise is probably overblown. Tonight will be an important test.

[Love The Action]

Told you bout my boy Gee, Red. I wanted 6 innings 2 earned, he exceeded my expectations.

Good call. What price did you bet? I like Gee to improve this year and be 0.8 - 1.1 WAR guy. GL on the rest of your plays.

[MidgetTossers]

thanks for the website..i watch every single giants game and know tim pretty well as a pitcher..last start he was hitting 93-94 at times on the tv radar gun..im not concerned with him being 92 mph..its his location that is the problem because he hasnt found his mechanics yet..when he gets his fastball where he wants he is fine..its not about how hard you throw..whats funny to me is that even if he was at 92 mph last year(which im not saying is wrong) he still had a 2.74 ERA with 220 strikeouts while logging 217 innings..still dominant numbers that put him at the top of the class for pitchers...he has 94 mph in his arm if he needs it

[Redscot]

That slider was NASTY....still, better to adapt than go under the knife. I'm going to reserve judgment as I think all this talk about Timmy's demise is probably overblown. Tonight will be an important test.

Will be very interesting to watch him tonight. He is still funky enough to be a hell of a pitcher,but he might be moving into a low to mid 3's era type pitcher. I had him pegged at 3.24 at the start of the season...