Red's corner - Talkin' baseball 4/16

[Redscot]

Figured I'd try and start a daily thread for those inclined to discuss the games. I have always posted in LTA's (hell of a capper and a real educator on sports investing) threads, but kinda feel like his thread is holy ground and should really be about his plays. I am first and foremost a baseball enthusiast, 2nd capper, so this thread ain't about my plays. It's about trying to get as much info out there as possible to help us all get scrilla/escarole/chedda etc.

I will definitely try and get these threads up in the mornings in the future.

UMPS: (I get this info from capping the game, they do a great job)

Gerry Davis - New York ------------62% strike zone since 2005, that is stingy.
Nelson - Washington
Everitt - Atlanta
Bell - K.C. ------------------65% Home team victory over 217 game sample
Barrett - Chicago ---------------64% Home team over 214 game sample
Joe West - Colorado -------------------62.5 % last years somewhat stingy
Bellino - Arizona --------------------Has shown a healthy strike zone
Foster - San Fran
Barett - Angels -----------------------64% home team over 214 game sample size

Roof looks to be open in Zona for the Pitt series:

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

Taking a quick look at the card and some early thoughts:

I think the Nat's bats are due to get some results soon. I have watched almost all of their games this season and have been impressed with their patience. Last year they really struggled working AB's and they seem to have made a point of correcting that (Desmond withstanding). Wieland throws cheese, but doesn't have the secondary stuff to keep the nat's off balance enough imo. Waiting on Umps still but I lean over despite Strasburg on the mound. Houston has also impressed me with their patience early this season and will probably try and work Stras, who threw more than a 100 pitches for the first time as a pro in his last start. Nat's pen probably going to have to put in 3 innings and they are without Storen.

Lean under in Colorado. This may be a suicidal lean as both pitchers give up a lot of fly balls. Luebke has ace potential though and Guthrie is a work horse. Not sure about Gonzalez's status atm or the ump. *******Carlos Gonzalez out*******

I like Pittsburgh as they have the better pitcher going imo. Saunders had a great outing in Petco, but he always does. I think Saunders is in store for some big time regression from last season.

Baltimore seems to be a popular play. I wanna get a better read on Arrieta before I can start backing him....his velocity is up though and he seems to be healthy.

Ditto on Duffy, although he could be in line for a break out, just not sure if it is so soon, he has great stuff.

Angels coming off a high profile series in New York, fly home and get the A's - let down spot? McCarthy is good enough to keep them in this one...

Hanson's velocity remain a concern in atlanta. Tonight we get to watch two right handed pitchers who average under 90 mph on their cheese, does this game stay under 8 runs?

I'll be back as the ump assignments come in, look forward to any and all opinions.

BTW grew up a Muts fan so the thread title is definitely in honor of Ralph Kiner, a one of a kind.

[BigBoi]

Always enjoyed reading yours and LTA's analysis on games. Good Luck and keep up the good work.

[BiffTFinancial]

love the idea of you having a daily thread, Red - BOL to you and thanks for posting.

i'm on the over in the Bronx, in large part because of Davis (Pavano and wind blowing out to left-center doesn't hurt either). on Mets and Padres too. was leaning under in DC, but passed in large part because of the patient ABs for both teams that you mentioned (and Nats aren't going to let Strasburg stay out there for 120 pitches).

[RoadDog]

Like reading your write-ups from afar, Red. You know baseball. GL buddy.

[Redscot]

love the idea of you having a daily thread, Red - BOL to you and thanks for posting.

i'm on the over in the Bronx, in large part because of Davis (Pavano and wind blowing out to left-center doesn't hurt either). on Mets and Padres too. was leaning under in DC, but passed in large part because of the patient ABs for both teams that you mentioned (and Nats aren't going to let Strasburg stay out there for 120 pitches).

You think Gee shuts down the Braves? If not no lean over?

I could really see the Nat's going off today, but not enough to play a R/L at - $ . Yeah, Stras has to be efficient here, Nat's used all of their meaningful bull pen arms yesterday (save Burnett their lefty specialist) Lidge and Stamman through o ver 30 pitches each so I don't think they will be available. Hernandez can be lights out but he is combustible with his control.

I should also mention that the Rockies pen is a bit over extended atm.

[Redscot]

Like reading your write-ups from afar, Red. You know baseball. GL buddy.

Also watch you from afar Roadie, one of the sane people around here. Please feel free to use this thread for any thoughts, or to just kick the tires on any ideas you may have. A dude named BigDan used to create these threads and they were a great think tank. Wonder where my man BigD is......

[blackeyeshamus]

Yo! Where is BigDan? The dude contributed valuable commentary. Very astute cat...

[Redscot]

Yo! Where is BigDan? The dude contributed valuable commentary. Very astute cat...

Yeah man, must be celebrating the Cards World series still. Shamus, I see you. I check your plays every day bro, keep up the good work.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Good to see a thread from you red ur the man

[Les_Nuts]

Good to see you have your own thread, opening post was very informative. I am playing the over in the mets game and was wondering your thoughts? Thanks for confirming Davis btw

[Redscot]

I am really starting to warm up to the A's tonight , and potentially the under. Angel stadium is one of the better under parks.

McCarthy and Weaver are worlds apart stuff wise but strangely enough their advanced stats were pretty even last year. McCarthy is another cat who has added the cutter (the en vogue pitch of the last 2-3 years) and it has had a big impact on his success. As I mentioned earlier, Anaheim high profile series in NYC, late travel as it was a night game. Many people hold to the notion that first game back at home after a road trip is a good fade spot.....+170 I think there is some value there.

[Redscot]

Good to see a thread from you red ur the man

Welcome back from JahMakeYa cuz. Hope you had a blast! LickaShot! Boop! Boop!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbiaCF_qsrg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUT5Uf96Rh8

[RoadDog]

Also watch you from afar Roadie, one of the sane people around here. Please feel free to use this thread for any thoughts, or to just kick the tires on any ideas you may have. A dude named BigDan used to create these threads and they were a great think tank. Wonder where my man BigD is......

Haha, yep SBR is turning into a dumping ground for teenagers. The Players Talk Thread is an excuse for old/disgruntled/miserable gamblers to play grab-ass. It's funny that all the cappers I respect have already commented on your thread: Biff, Blackeye, Buck, and yourself. We need SASH and Sonny to comment and there's the new SBR Underground Cappers Dream Team hahaha

Let's get it my man.

[Redscot]

Added umps to the original post. BTW, you believe in home field advantage? Check out the book scorecasting, very interesting:

In baseball, the authors looked at the percentage of called pitches that are strikes. In crucial situations (high leverage), home teams got a lot more favorable calls. But in low-leverage situations, it was *road* teams that got more favorable calls. "This makes sense," the authors write. "If the umpire is going to show favoritism to the home team, he or she will do it when it is most valuable -- when the outcome of the game is affected the most. You might even contend that it noncrucial situations the umpire might be biased against the home team to maintain an overall appearance of fairness."

This adds up to an extra 7.3 runs per season given to each home team by the plate umpire alone. That might not sound significant, but cumulatively, home teams outscore their visitors by only 10.5 runs in a season." [That latter number isn't correct ... in 2010, it was 23.5 runs. 23.5 runs equals 2.35 wins out of 81, which is a .530 winning percentage. (UPDATE: Oops! I forgot to adjust for the home team not batting in the bottom of the ninth when leading. If you adjust for that, the home advantage is a lot bigger than 10.5 or 23.5 runs.)]

[BigBoi]

This is the stomping grounds of the best of the best. Literally, everyone one of you I respect your opinions on plays and yall have made me some major coin.

[blackeyeshamus]

Thanks, Red! Brilliant idea and very welcome information. You're definitely one of the good guys around SBR.

[BiffTFinancial]

You think Gee shuts down the Braves? If not no lean over?

I could really see the Nat's going off today, but not enough to play a R/L at - $ . Yeah, Stras has to be efficient here, Nat's used all of their meaningful bull pen arms yesterday (save Burnett their lefty specialist) Lidge and Stamman through o ver 30 pitches each so I don't think they will be available. Hernandez can be lights out but he is combustible with his control.

I should also mention that the Rockies pen is a bit over extended atm.

i do feel good about Gee, which is why i'm on the Mets. i think that Mets get their TT against Hanson, question is Braves lineup vs Gee. hard to play Nats RL, i parlayed Strasburg with Verlander.

[YOUNGBUCK]

I am really starting to warm up to the A's tonight , and potentially the under. Angel stadium is one of the better under parks.

McCarthy and Weaver are worlds apart stuff wise but strangely enough their advanced stats were pretty even last year. McCarthy is another cat who has added the cutter (the en vogue pitch of the last 2-3 years) and it has had a big impact on his success. As I mentioned earlier, Anaheim high profile series in NYC, late travel as it was a night game. Many people hold to the notion that first game back at home after a road trip is a good fade spot.....+170 I think there is some value there.

I agree with the under in this game i like Mccarthys stuff alot and As bats are weak regardless if its Weaver or not... Thinkin ab payin the juice for the Yanks they usually dont disappoint on primetime wat u think or anyone

[YOUNGBUCK]

Strasburg/Verlander seems popular thinkin the same thing

[Love The Action]

As you know, I already played the tb/red sox under, pirates ml (+121) & the padres ml (+125).

My final lean is on the orioles but no decision yet. I like balty because I see humber regressing this season and an improvement from arrieta. Two guys going in opposite directions imho.

Love the new daily thread and look forward to contributing. Good luck buddy

[RoadDog]

I'd stay away from Verlander tonight. Last start he went 9 innings, dont know how he'll respond today. Danny Duffy ready to breakout this season. Kid throws heat. Should be a tight one.

[RoadDog]

As you know, I already played the tb/red sox under, pirates ml (+121) & the padres ml (+125).

My final lean is on the orioles but no decision yet. I like balty because I see humber regressing this season and an improvement from arrieta. Two guys going in opposite directions imho.

Love the new daily thread and look forward to contributing. Good luck buddy

Hey, LTA. Something I just wrote in another thread:

I'm a huge White Sox fan and live less than a mile away from the park. Thoughts on the game:

Baltimore hits Humber really well .292 average with 4 home runs in 48 at bats. Not a big sample, but the players that matter hit him well (check out JJ Hardy, 4-4 with a HR). The wind is absolutely howling to dead center. I dont care what weather site you check, the wind is 20-30 mph blowing straight out. You cant even walk down the street because of the wind. I dont know what that means for either team, just something you should think about. Also, this is Humber's first start of the season. His first start was skipped due to a rain delay. Dude hasn't thrown a real inning for a long time. Not a great spot for a huge bet on the Sox tonight, but who knows, just my opinion. BOL I hope they win for ya. I'll be cheering them on haha.

So yea, I agree with you. I'd take Orioles if i had to.

[Redscot]

As you know, I already played the tb/red sox under, pirates ml (+121) & the padres ml (+125).

My final lean is on the orioles but no decision yet. I like balty because I see humber regressing this season and an improvement from arrieta. Two guys going in opposite directions imho.


Love the new daily thread and look forward to contributing. Good luck buddy

I agree about Humber (though still think WSox have great SP depth to have him as their 5th starter) and have been reading good things about Arrieta and his arm strength seems really back. Gonna try and watch that game tonight and see if he passes the eye test.

[YOUNGBUCK]

im on Os already like Arietta no Yanks love?

[Redscot]

None of you cats are biting on the A's huh? Bunch of Weaver nut huggers . Seriously though, would love to hear someone else's thoughts on that one.

[No coincidences]

Good to see you start a thread, Red. Long overdue.

Just my take, but if you're laying -180 on the road with any pitcher at any time -- let alone in April -- you're crazy. Verlander, Strasburg, Garcia and Weaver all way overpriced, but Hanson might take the cake. I wouldn't touch the Tigers, Nats, Yanks or Braves tonight. Not saying they won't cash, but long term, those are losing bets.

[Redscot]

I'd stay away from Verlander tonight. Last start he went 9 innings, dont know how he'll respond today. Danny Duffy ready to breakout this season. Kid throws heat. Should be a tight one.

I am really tempted here too Roadie. Duffy will be good, real good, just don't know if it is yet...Tigers are familiar with him and if he walks batters tonight they will make him pay.

[BigBoi]

Thoughts on A's. Weaver loves pitching at home. Night game to night game, so I dont see travel affecting much. A's have won 4 games with one of them being against a pitcher they faced three times, Third times the charm? Weaver also coming off a loss to the Twins.

[HoulihansTX]

Roof looks to be open in Zona for the Pitt series:

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/ari/ballpark/information/index.jsp?content=roof

Do you have info on the other stadiums with roofs?

Take the over in Zona. When that roof is opened, it shrinks the ballpark.

[Redscot]

Good to see you start a thread, Red. Long overdue.

Just my take, but if you're laying -180 on the road with any pitcher at any time -- let alone in April -- you're crazy. Verlander, Strasburg, Garcia and Weaver all way overpriced, but Hanson might take the cake. I wouldn't touch the Tigers, Nats, Yanks or Braves tonight. Not saying they won't cash, but long term, those are losing bets.

. I have always subscribedto that theory as well NoCo, Sonny seems to do pretty well though. Gonna have to start calling him Chalky Green (lays serious chalk but makes the green)

[RoadDog]

Good to see you start a thread, Red. Long overdue.

Just my take, but if you're laying -180 on the road with any pitcher at any time -- let alone in April -- you're crazy. Verlander, Strasburg, Garcia and Weaver all way overpriced, but Hanson might take the cake. I wouldn't touch the Tigers, Nats, Yanks or Braves tonight. Not saying they won't cash, but long term, those are losing bets.

Couldnt have said it better myself, particularly regarding Hanson tonight. I'm on the Mets. Tons of value.

I am really tempted here too Roadie. Duffy will be good, real good, just don't know if it is yet...Tigers are familiar with him and if he walks batters tonight they will make him pay.

Yea its a no play for me. Love Duffy's arm. Want to see how he does against a lineup like the Tigers this year before I bet him.

[YOUNGBUCK]

i agree NoCo but last night i couldnt have been more confident in the yanks comin off a loss

[Redscot]

To you Mets backers...I have to assume you think Gee is gonna shut down the Braves if you aren't on that over. You think the Mets hold the Braves under 4 today?

[RoadDog]

I had a write-up throwing out some numbers and why i like the mets in my thread if you want to take a look. It's pretty lengthy so I dont want to clog up your thread.

[No coincidences]

i agree NoCo but last night i couldnt have been more confident in the yanks comin off a loss

Yanks will hit Pavano, but if you trust Garcia at that price, you have bigger balls than me.