Mlb 2012

[svenodds]

Great work in the first half

GL rest of the season

[2daBank]

Biff, curious about what ump data you look at. I sort my list by strike % weighted by year over the past 3 years and then have K% and BB% alongside to see if there is any strong lean either way and if it matches up well with the listed pitchers.

You do anything terribly different?

Biff smarter than me but id say you doing it the way most go about it strike % then k/bb ratio...the only other thing id add is i like to know what the avg total in a gm that ump is calling and consequently avg amount of runs scored in those gms, you could always have a guy that has called a unusual amount of ace/ace matchups (low totals) or gascans (high totals) where obviously it may not be on him as the reason he calling lots of or not so many ks...

[gdaly11]

Good job Biff, keep up the great work in the second half, can't wait to get back at er!

[EXhoosier10]

I definitely don't want to look at O/U's, as I believe those are the most biased umpire stat you can look at, but I'd imagine runs scored is the next most biased, as a lot of those results should be out of the umps control.

sorry to semi-hijack your thread, Biff, but does anyone have a master schedule in excel for previous seasons (or a list of umpires for each game would be ideal)? I want to pull data from each game and run some numbers on them. I'd be willing to share results if anyone has something

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff, curious about what ump data you look at. I sort my list by strike % weighted by year over the past 3 years and then have K% and BB% alongside to see if there is any strong lean either way and if it matches up well with the listed pitchers.

You do anything terribly different?

i look at K%, K/BB ratio, differential between avg total/average actual runs scored, even actual performance (O/U) although i agree that it can be easily misinterpreted. however, i'm more looking at specific umps to look at how they performed relative to my initial ump factors that i prepared in the offseason and where there's a big deviation trying to assess why. for example, i expected T Welke, Holbrook, McClelland, L Barrett, S Barry, Danley and Wegner to be the biggest over umps, while Emmel wasn't even on my radar. i'm trying to look at the overall picture to tweak my second half ump factors. T Welke will go from having a big over factor to avoid entirely (aka the Gerry Davis Zone). Holbrook stays right where he is, McClelland maybe a minor downgrade but still an over ump. Emmel has to go on the over list, the question is how high i set his ump factor (same with Schreiber, Nauert). my maximum ump factor is +/- 15%. ump factor is an overlay on the total portion of the model, similar to park factor.

[BiffTFinancial]

Great work in the first half

GL rest of the season

thanks, BOL to you too.

[BiffTFinancial]

Biff smarter than me but id say you doing it the way most go about it strike % then k/bb ratio...the only other thing id add is i like to know what the avg total in a gm that ump is calling and consequently avg amount of runs scored in those gms, you could always have a guy that has called a unusual amount of ace/ace matchups (low totals) or gascans (high totals) where obviously it may not be on him as the reason he calling lots of or not so many ks...

nobody's smarter than you. very good point regarding relative level of totals. that's why i like the ump breakdowns on covers. that excel sheet on CTG is excellent too, esp that it has different lookback periods already sorted.

[BiffTFinancial]

Good job Biff, keep up the great work in the second half, can't wait to get back at er!

thanks, you too!

[2daBank]

nobody's smarter than you. very good point regarding relative level of totals. that's why i like the ump breakdowns on covers. that excel sheet on CTG is excellent too, esp that it has different lookback periods already sorted.

CTG where i learned all about umps ....getting booted from this place was best thing that ever happened to me...lmao

[BiffTFinancial]

I definitely don't want to look at O/U's, as I believe those are the most biased umpire stat you can look at, but I'd imagine runs scored is the next most biased, as a lot of those results should be out of the umps control.

sorry to semi-hijack your thread, Biff, but does anyone have a master schedule in excel for previous seasons (or a list of umpires for each game would be ideal)? I want to pull data from each game and run some numbers on them. I'd be willing to share results if anyone has something

hijack away dude. i'd love to see that. i have nothing of the sort, but there is a good spreadsheet stickied to the top of the MLB board at cappingthegame.com that has a bunch of stats easily sortable from prior years. i don't adjust for all umps, probably only 30-40%, and i really only adjust for total (don't bother much with the home/away stats, although i do think that how pitchers perform with a given ump can be relevant if recent enough, but i really only do ump adjustment for totals and sometimes pitchers). most of my ump adjustments are in the neighborhood of 5%, so i think of them as more a contributing factor for totals than a decisive one. that said, i want nothing to do with an under with Holbrook behind the plate or an over with Eddings.

[BiffTFinancial]

CTG where i learned all about umps ....getting booted from this place was best thing that ever happened to me...lmao

at least i know where to find you the next time you get put in the penalty box.

[2daBank]

hijack away dude. i'd love to see that. i have nothing of the sort, but there is a good spreadsheet stickied to the top of the MLB board at cappingthegame.com that has a bunch of stats easily sortable from prior years. i don't adjust for all umps, probably only 30-40%, and i really only adjust for total (don't bother much with the home/away stats, although i do think that how pitchers perform with a given ump can be relevant if recent enough, but i really only do ump adjustment for totals and sometimes pitchers). most of my ump adjustments are in the neighborhood of 5%, so i think of them as more a contributing factor for totals than a decisive one. that said, i want nothing to do with an under with Holbrook behind the plate or an over with Eddings.

give me holbrook, tmac, a few others in a bos/nyy series, gm in tex, a couple gascans on mound, and that all the capping i do on a total..over city

[2daBank]

at least i know where to find you the next time you get put in the penalty box.

no doubt....

[BiffTFinancial]

give me holbrook, tmac, a few others in a bos/nyy series and that all the capping i do on a total..

Can't argue with that. Unfortunately I have the tendency to over complicate things.

Start working on CFB later tonight. Can't wait.

[matt711]

Thanks for all the time you spend handicapping...wish i found you at the start of the year,guys like you Dex, Paco,LT Profits,Roxxy,and LTA when he was here are among the best.

[2daBank]

grabbed 1 early..

cards+117...i know, shocking right? lol...what can i say i believe in Wainwright..

[BiffTFinancial]

hilarious, i just now saw that you'd posted in thread. excellent that you like Cards, Cards and CWS my favorite sides. gonna go ahead and book, not sure what the deal is with Sox line being down.

[BiffTFinancial]

Friday 7.13.2012
2* Cardinals ML (+114)

[2daBank]

yea no idea what going on there, also seemed kinda short before it got taken down???? is Quintana a mirage? even if he pitching over his head he still a lefty that has pitched well facing a kc team that doesnt like lefties all that much.. no clue WTF it all bout...

[BiffTFinancial]

welcome back from summer vacation. great break. slept, watched Breaking Bad, drove around with the windows down singing Pavement. let's have a good second half.

on Cards, will be on White Sox when line posted.

leans
Twins (-1 or in parlay)
Royals TT under
Dbacks (probably in parlay)
Braves
Tribe TT over
Pirates
Rockies
Dodgers (RL or in parlay)

don't really want to play any totals without knowing umps, esp since i like a few sides a lot. save game totals for Saturday/Sunday or closer to gametime.

[BiffTFinancial]

Thanks for all the time you spend handicapping...wish i found you at the start of the year,guys like you Dex, Paco,LT Profits,Roxxy,and LTA when he was here are among the best.

[BiffTFinancial]

yea no idea what going on there, also seemed kinda short before it got taken down???? is Quintana a mirage? even if he pitching over his head he still a lefty that has pitched well facing a kc team that doesnt like lefties all that much.. no clue WTF it all bout...

i might play it action rather than listed. and you're right, it does seem somewhat short, but then again, everyone expects CWS to struggle against LHP. at that price, sure seems worth the risk.

[2daBank]

Cant wait for breaking bad to start back up Sunday! love that show!


lean twinks and dbags as well...

opposite lean on pit but that just my "bet Greinke @ miller,fade everywhere else" strategy (didnt really cap it, never do tho, lol) ..

lad juice is sick, prob be too high on the -1 and i dont trust them to score more than 1 let alone win by more than that, even w kemp and Either back i have my doubts that they just come in on a tear, prob pass for me, kinda like under but obviously someone thought 6 was too low cause that over hit a juiced 6.5 fast!

would like to play Braves as i think they should have nice second half but think i need to see them get their shit together at home before i jump in on them..

[BiffTFinancial]

Cant wait for breaking bad to start back up Sunday! love that show!


lean twinks and dbags as well...

opposite lean on pit but that just my "bet Greinke @ miller,fade everywhere else" strategy (didnt really cap it, never do tho, lol) ..

lad juice is sick, prob be too high on the -1 and i dont trust them to score more than 1 let alone win by more than that, even w kemp and Either back i have my doubts that they just come in on a tear, prob pass for me, kinda like under but obviously someone thought 6 was too low cause that over hit a juiced 6.5 fast!

would like to play Braves as i think they should have nice second half but think i need to see them get their shit together at home before i jump in on them..

i know, rewatching last season right now in preparation for Sunday. just awesome.

pretty much sure that i'll be on Twins and White Sox in some fashion. KC TT under is really intriguing me.

i lean Pirates, but i don't know how likely how i am to play them because of Greinke's home trends. that said, he's on weird rest and a headcase, so it's Rats or pass for me, but probably pass or play 1*. seems like a lot of value in Pirates, esp if it goes higher tomorrow, which i think it will. i could definitely justify 1u on Pirates +150-something.

Big Blue juice is huge, but i do really think they'll win and i like how that total jumped. Dbacks make perfect day-night parlay partner for either LAD or Twins, and i'm certainly more willing to go Twins -1 +110 than Dodgers -1 -125. Braves another good -1 candidate.

[BiffTFinancial]

parlay of Dbacks + Dodgers pays +169. that's not bad at all.

[2daBank]

yea cant really argue to strongly against bucs at that price, i just dont fade bitchboy at home, period.. but you right weird circumstances and who the fukk knows how his little pea brain handles that + the trade talks? i damn sure have no clue as ive never understood pussy all that well...


agree total jump on lad surely had to be triggered by thoughts of dodgers actually scoring runs cause i doubt ppl are looking for pads to smack cy Kershaw around..

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* Twins -1 (+109)

Friday 7.13.2012 updated card
2* Cardinals ML (+114)
2* Twins -1 (+109)

[2daBank]

id like to take this time before i leave for work to say what a joke it is that we have to wait so long toget the fukkin umps in 1st gms of series, like mlb dont know where guys are at? like they just picking names out of a hat this morning to determine who flies where...fukkin BS..lot of totals i like, hopefully im home in time to do some stalking.

need a connect at a airport tht can tell me who flying where..should be part of the "patriot act", lol

[BiffTFinancial]

id like to take this time before i leave for work to say what a joke it is that we have to wait so long toget the fukkin umps in 1st gms of series, like mlb dont know where guys are at? like they just picking names out of a hat this morning to determine who flies where...fukkin BS..lot of totals i like, hopefully im home in time to do some stalking.

need a connect at a airport tht can tell me who flying where..should be part of the "patriot act", lol

Yeah, that is some third world bullshit right there. To quote Homer Simpson: that's not America - that's not even Mexico.

[2daBank]

Yeah, that is some third world bullshit right there. To quote Homer Simpson: that's not America - that's not even Mexico.

fuk i dont wanna work today, already running behind yet still here on sbr...

[BiffTFinancial]

fuk i dont wanna work today, already running behind yet still here on sbr...

me either. let me know what totals you are eying and i'll see what my numbers say. i should have some time for capping at lunch. initially lean under in LAA/NYY and CWS/KC. i don't want to play any totals without knowing ump, and i don't want to have a huge card tonight, but we should start learning who umps are late afternoon and i want to be ready to react when that news hits. also, it's freaky friday so i plan on sitting outside drinking in the minutes leading up to first pitch not inside staring at line moves and finalizing my card. fk that noise.

[2daBank]

phi/col ov 10...already played this one, no ump can stop what is going down at coors these days...

stl/ciny ff un (kinda a theme lately)..prob still think it best to aviod cards pen even tho i think both starters go deep...should have prob jumped on 8.5 for gm last night.

oak/min un 8 (ugh, just saw it went down to 7.5)


those 3 prob my strongest...these more early stage leans as i havnt capped all yet..


tex/sea un 7.5

pit/mil un 7.5

lad/sd un 6.5...instant spike was maybe a sign not to mess w until i see lad at full stregth but Kersha and another solid lefty @ CR, hard to pass up...


hell maybe i should play salami under again, that was fun last day before break (1st time ever trying it, kinda exciting, lol)

[2daBank]

just realized i cant play salami under as freaking cubs total wont be out and i gotta gtf outta here ...do think scrubbies gm has potential for lot of runs but wont be playing as i gotta go..

[BiffTFinancial]

adding

2* White Sox ML (-116)

Friday 7.13.2012 updated card
2* Cardinals ML (+114)
2* Twins -1 (+109)
2* White Sox ML (-116)

bring on the major leagues.

[BiffTFinancial]

phi/col ov 10...already played this one, no ump can stop what is going down at coors these days...

stl/ciny ff un (kinda a theme lately)..prob still think it best to aviod cards pen even tho i think both starters go deep...should have prob jumped on 8.5 for gm last night.

oak/min un 8 (ugh, just saw it went down to 7.5)


those 3 prob my strongest...these more early stage leans as i havnt capped all yet..


tex/sea un 7.5

pit/mil un 7.5

lad/sd un 6.5...instant spike was maybe a sign not to mess w until i see lad at full stregth but Kersha and another solid lefty @ CR, hard to pass up...


hell maybe i should play salami under again, that was fun last day before break (1st time ever trying it, kinda exciting, lol)

will look into these early afternoon and report back with my numbers. i can say that i like PHI/COL over at first look.