3 chase systems

[jakejd82]

CIN +101. Did you pull the trigger on was?

[skjjb4]

I just did.


QUOTE=jakejd82;14425176]CIN +101. Did you pull the trigger on was?[/QUOTE]

[Stifler]

will probably wait till 12pm and see where the line is getting. Btw the line on covers.com will decide if im going to play this game or not, cause i used covers aswell for all the research.

currently +100, will see where this sits in 2 hours.

[Stifler]

Cin fade will not be played. They are -104 right now, so not fitting to the system.

for today the only game will be:

12.04.2012

S1

(A Bet) SD fade: Arizona 1,769 1,30u

[jakejd82]

??? They are +100 on covers right now. I'll guaranteed lose this one. Haha

[Stifler]

http://scores.covers.com/baseball-scores-matchups.aspx

still -104 on covers. pinnacle has them +100, but covers will decide whether its a game or not.

gl to those playing the series!

[jakejd82]

Weird.... http://m.covers.com/index.aspx#/Odds/MLB
Oh well. Thanks for the luck, I'll need it !

[jbizzle]

Aren't you supposed to skip the next 2 games after a streak is broken for S1 System? This is only the first game after San Diego's losing streak was broken.

[Stifler]

congratz on the win.

games for tomorrow....

13.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,725 1,38u
(A Bet) Cubs fade: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,826 1,21u
(A Bet) SF: SF Giants 1,595 1,68u
(A Bet) Balti fade: Toronto 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Oak fade: Seattle 1,637 1,57u
(A Bet) SD fade: Dodgers 1,820 1,22u


Detroit and CHW will also be on the list if the line for detroit moves to +100 and the line for CHW moves below +100.

[Stifler]

Aren't you supposed to skip the next 2 games after a streak is broken for S1 System? This is only the first game after San Diego's losing streak was broken.

covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2012/team2955.html

08.04. losing streak was broken, 10.+11.04. both games were skipped - today the chase begins

[skjjb4]

Looks like a lot of games coming up. GL to us all.

[jbizzle]

Thanks for the clarity stifler, so we are fading SD even though they won the 2nd game after the streak was broken?
Also, what % of your bankroll would you recommend betting for your A bet? I'm assuming if A bet loses your B bet is your loss from A bet and the desired unit to win? Sorry for the confusion.

[Stifler]

Yes skip the next 2 games after the streak was broken.
B bet amount would be the lost a bet amount +1unit.
I started with 30units, but i recommend starting with 50u to cover atleast 1 lost and leave some rest. But u all have to decide that on ur own.

[jakejd82]

If San Diego loses tonight then we no longer fade them... Correct?

[Stifler]

Right, the s1 series is over then.

Me @ sleepmode now. Cya tomorrow

[BoutDemCowboys]

Stifler my man! At work right now, working that overnight shift! Sucks, but anyways I had to log on to commend you on this system! I have been following and just recently have been tailing, and I have had nothing but success!

Thanks my man. I wish the BOL to everyone following this thread! Lets cash some winners baby!

Fade on SD was a great call

[Stifler]

12.04.2012

S1

(A Bet) SD fade: Arizona 1,769 1,30u

records:
S1: W 1 | L 0 (+1 unit)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 10 | L 0 (+10 units)

pending:
nothing

[jakejd82]

Lot of action today! Good luck everyone ! Stifler, you the man !

[Stifler]

its still a long season, thank me when we reach the previous numbers at the end. Everything else brings bad karma in.

[Shot Caller 666]

How much is 1 unit on your bankroll.I mean the percentage.

[Stifler]

1unit= 3% of br

but its way too aggressive. i advice to play 2% or even better 1% of ur bankroll. But the decision is yours. a loss would probably cost around 20-30 units.

[tar_baby]

I agree with 1 unit being around 1% or even less....that puts us up over 10% in about a week....not too shabby!

[alansmith23]

How did you determine what teams to put in and whether theyre winning or losing???

First year playing those systems, backtested for the last 6 years, numbers look good - still no guarantee this year will be the same...but i will give it a try. All systems will be 4 game chases.

Systems 1 (S1): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken skip the next 2 games after the streak-breaking game and follow that streak. Divide the games in home and road games (an overlapping streak doesnt count)

e.g. WWWL(Streak broken)WL(both games skipping) - next game start the chase (all games have to be either home or road games)


Systems 2 (S2): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken start the chase after the streak breaking game. Divide the games in home and road games (an overlapping streak doesnt count)

e.g. WWWL(Streak broken) - next game start the chase (all games have to be either home or road games)


System 3 (S3): Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are under +100 in the first game start the chase. Whenever a team starts a road-trip and the odds are +100 or higher in the first game start the chase and fade that team.

_____________________________

Only play the following teams on the systems:

S1:
NY Yankees (only winning streaks)
Kansas City (only losing streaks)
Pittsburg (only losing streaks)
St. louis (only losing streaks)
San Diego (only losing streaks)

S2:
Philadelphia
San Francisco (only winning streaks)
Arizona (only losing streaks)

S3:
NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Boston
Toronto
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
San Diego
San Francisco

_____________________________

Records:

2006: 309-5 (+ 196,53 units)
2007: 337-9 (+ 127,63 units)
2008: 327-8 (+ 117,16 units)
2009: 348-2 (+ 315,54 units)
2010: 335-5 (+ 184,09 units)
2011: 334-6 (+ 222,65 units)_____
overall: 1990-35 (+ 1163,60 units)


all the records for the teams and all records for 1.Game, 2.Game, 3.Game, 4.Game also available.

How did you determine what teams to put in and whether theyre winning or losing???

[alansmith23]

That question was weird i think. I meant how did you select the teams for S1, S2 and S3 and then how did you determine which ones were winning or losing streaks?

thanks

your thread is rad

[Stifler]

teams were picked due to their statistics over the last 6 seasons. The teams who showed best numbers and constance were picked.

[alansmith23]

If a team has 7 straight road games and opens as a +125 then we fade them.

If the fade works in that first game we win a unit.

The next game that same team is +140 and they have six straight road games do we fade again or is the whole seven game straight road games shot after that first win?

[alansmith23]

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WLWW then HOME WL

Those three wins in a row followed by a loss would not count correct?

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WWWL then HOME next game would that count?

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WWLL then HOME we already bet on a clearly qualifying game but need to chase then can we overlap home and away games?

Thanks

Alan

[Stifler]

If a team has 7 straight road games and opens as a +125 then we fade them.

If the fade works in that first game we win a unit.

The next game that same team is +140 and they have six straight road games do we fade again or is the whole seven game straight road games shot after that first win?

the series is over after u won the first game. No games will be played during the next 6 matches in that case.

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WLWW then HOME WL

Those three wins in a row followed by a loss would not count correct?

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WWWL then HOME next game would that count?

For S2 if it went ROAD WLW WWLL then HOME we already bet on a clearly qualifying game but need to chase then can we overlap home and away games?

no road / home overlapping. ROAD WLW WWWL - the chase opens @ the next road game and play them to win in that case. If the next game would be played @ home the chase wont start cause we divide home and road games.

hope that answers ur question

[Taro Punk]

anyways, most of them won today! hence, good job there!

[Stifler]

13.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,725 1,38u
(A Bet) Cubs fade: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Bos: Boston 1,826 1,21u
(A Bet) SF: SF Giants 1,595 1,68u
(A Bet) Balti fade: Toronto 1,541 1,85u
(A Bet) Oak fade: Seattle 1,637 1,57u
(A Bet) SD fade: Dodgers 1,820 1,22u

records:
S1: W 1 | L 0 (+1 unit)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 14 | L 0 (+14 units)

[Stifler]

14.04.2012

S3

(B Bet) Cubs fade: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,535 5,33u
(B Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,535 5,33u
(B Bet) Balti fade: Toronto 1,541 1,85u | Toronto 1,621 4,56u
(B Bet) Oak fade: Seattle 1,637 1,57u | Seattle 1,943 2,73u

[jakejd82]

For everyone who has nearly half their bankroll in play today, GOOD LUCK ! Hopefully Lance Lynn pitches better then Wainwright did yesterday.

[Taro Punk]

great work! 3-1

looks like double up on TOR !!!

[Stifler]

14.04.2012

S3

(B Bet) Cubs fade: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,535 5,33u
(B Bet) Stl: St.Louis 1,541 1,85u | St.Louis 1,535 5,33u
(B Bet) Balti fade: Toronto 1,541 1,85u | Toronto 1,621 4,56u
(B Bet) Oak fade: Seattle 1,637 1,57u | Seattle 1,943 2,73u

records:
S1: W 1 | L 0 (+1 unit)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 17 | L 0 (+17 units)

[Stifler]

15.04.2012

S3

(C Bet) Balti fade: Toronto 1,541 1,85u | Toronto 1,621 4,56u | Toronto 1,641 11,56u