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TheJewBear is gearing up Ladies and Gentlemen.
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Helluva Career
Hell's Bells...for the first time in 18 years - we'll have a baseball season without Trevor Hoffman.
Although he was clearly running on fumes last year in Milwaukee and to reach the 600 saves number he definitely stretched it a season too far - no question the guy was one of the great pitchers of the last 20 years. He's a certain first ballot HOFer and - along with Tony Gwynn - one of the two greatest Padres all time.
As too often happens with the great stars in baseball, his departure from the mother ship in SD was poorly handled on both sides - but glad to see Moorad is bringing him back to the organization. A smart move.
For much of his career, the dynamic in the ballpark when TH entered a game could only be compared to the likes of Eckersley and Rivera. Everyone knew the game was over - the fans knew it - his teammates knew it - and most importantly the opposition knew it. Once the din of Hell's Bells and the ovation subsided - you could hear the car keys coming out of thousands of pockets.
If you had San Diego, you knew your money was safe in his hands. How many teams have a closer you don't have to sweat these days? I can have a 4-run lead in the 9th and with half of these guys I'd still consider selling the ticket for a decent offer.
I'm a rolling thunder, spoutin rain
I'm comin' down like a hurricane
My lightning's flashing across the sky
You're only young but you're gonna die
I won't take no prisoners, won't spare no lives
Nobody's putting up a fight
I got my bell, I'm gonna take you to hellLast edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-12-11, 07:10 PM.Comment -
Interesting to see the season win total that the books hang for FLA after Uggla's big name departure. If they hang 77 or lower I will hammer it.
FLA's bullpen is vastly improved but not with big names. Contrarian play.Comment -
Must agree with you, Lock, that 77 would be a soft number for the Fish.
As you say, their pen should be improved (an analysis at the bottom of this post by Michael Jong pegs their current pen at > +2 games over 2010) and to me there’s a lot of other things to like about FLA overall. They have the kind of young talent that can surprise to the upside in a big way.
Up front, of course, Johnson and Nolasco provide a formidable 1-2. And they should be solid behind the plate with the addition of John Buck. They also have substantial team speed – and they figure to be better defensively (esp up the middle w/ Infante at 2nd).
Replacing Uggla’s run production will be a test – but with Hanley Ramirez, Mike Stanton, Gabby Sanchez at 1st, Logan Morrison and maybe the rookie Dominguez ready for The Show - it’s a lineup that should make some noise. Stanton in the 4-hole is a monster – could become one of the game’s truly great power/RBI men. I think the key questions for them offensively will be if the lead-off kid Coghlan can bounce back from the knee surgery, the young hitters can develop some consistency and plate discipline (they gave away a ton of ABs last year – only Morrison seems to have a strike zone), and if they can get those young legs on base and aggressively push the running game with success. If the young players come along under Edwin Rodriguez – I believe they could easily top last year’s 80 W’s.
And who knows? Miracle Marlins III? They may never win a Division title - but they do pick up a World Series Championship every so often.
Marlins’ pen statistical evaluation:
http://marlinmaniac.com/2011/01/12/marlins-bullpen-management-in-2011/Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-13-11, 02:13 AM.Comment -
Thanks BB for your analysis. The Contrarian Mafia will forward your analysis to newly elected Governor Rick Scott for his review.
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I can't believe it's only January with all this baseball talk, I'm starting to get psyched!!!! I love the analysis of the fish. Makes you think if they can put together a decent bullpen what they can really do.
I also noticed that the Seattle pick for the pennant received no comment....Sleeper at +4000??
King Felix, Ichiro, Justin Smoak, Chone Figgins... to name a fewComment -
Not warming up to it JewBear. By the way, the avatar with the Teddy Bear is the nutz. Perhaps the JewBear, can get the DrewBear to join the Contrarian Mafia?
By the way, 2-0 last night on College Baskets, posted on pick monitor. Got 2 going tonight, if you want them. Two solid contrarian indicators. PM for the link.Last edited by Pair of 5s Sir; 01-13-11, 06:54 AM.Comment -
Good afternoon Contrarios, just got back to the Observation Tower and capping college baskets. I can't wait until the start of MLB. Got my MLB.com subscription, and a carton of cracker jacks.Comment -
Another day Contrarians, be knocking them dead in college baskets. Getting ready to pull the trigger on the futures. Shortly the divisional number will be out to accompany the pennant and World Series.
A's and Stros are on my radar, how bout you. The JewBear has been sniffing on the M's and he doen't mean Matzo balls
Beware O ContrareComment -
A's About To Sign Grant Balfour
You might want to consider locking up your A's play, 5's. The price may not get any more attractive as the A's are about to get better with the addition of Balfour to their pen.
The big Australian is a fly ball pitcher who should be very effective in the Coliseum. He's also good for > 9 K's per 9 and brings a lot of attitude - tough as nails. Paired in personality with Dallas Braden he should toughen up the whole staff and club. A nice pickup if they sign him.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-14-11, 01:03 PM.Comment -
So I locked in some plays:
Pennant:
Astros-$20
A's - $20
Cards - $16
Mets - $16
M's - $5
World Series:
Astros- $5
A's - $5
Cards - $5
Mets - $5
M's -$3
Itching to get at the div. lines and win totals now.....and I think I'm in the mood for matzo balls now!Comment -
Matzo ball soups all around!Comment -
Good morning Contrarians, welcome to the Tower, off to family obligations today. We will talk later.Comment -
The Contrarian will be taking shop at the West Coast Observation Tower in Las Vegas, Nevada on February 12. I will be checking out the futures in a number of places, then I will pull the trigger. Looking forward to the zany cast of characters.
To this date, backstage tickets to the Tower go to TheLock,TheJewBear, BeatingBaseball. All others please fill out an application (code word, 1 point) for entry. TheJewBear is supplying Matzo Ball soup at the introduction ceremony.
Beware O ContrareComment -
who should be very effective in the Coliseum. He's also goodComment -
Good morning Contrarians. Had a boring day capping CBB yesterday. 9-6-1 is not bad. (POSTED on another site) What a grind with that -110 thing. MLB on the horizon.Comment -
yeah lose alot with that -110 on every game ... still cannot wait for baseballl crrrriiiippppeeeesssssComment -
Even though the -110, I am 5-0 today on College baskets, after 9-6-1 yesterday. All picks verified and monitored by pick monitor.com. PM for details.Comment -
Good morning contrarian. Been up to my armpits in College Hoops. Another day closer thank God. The Tower is revving up.Comment -
Look forward to following your picks this yearComment -
Good morning Contrarians. Making show reservations for Las Vegas trip in February. Went 2-0 last night on college hoops. 22-10 since January 6th. The Contrarian selections are warming up. Let's continue the positive vibe and in-depth capping.
The ContrarianComment -
What constitutes a "sharp" play?
There's a thread going right now in the Handicapper Think Tank that I found interesting - and revealing.
As most here know, the denizens of the "tank" are a little different. Few of them cap on fundamentals or gut feel for a matchup - but rather on pure mathematical "black box" models. The one thing you can say about them, however, is that as a group they generally really know their math. And that's what makes the thread I refer to intersting and revealing.
On the question of what constitiutes a "sharp" play - someone offered that a "sharp" play is simply a play that wins and that, get this, "it doesn't matter what price or what spread you bet into as long as you won the play." Wow! And if that concept isn't surprising enough - some people there quicky jumped in to agree with the guy.
The thread I refer to is: http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicappe...line-move.html
Since those here on 5's thread bet baseball (where price is paramount) and are largely contrarians to boot - the referenced thread might be worth a look - if for nothing else but to see the level of cluelessness re gambling, sports betting and book making that can exist even among a group of supposedly sophisticated players who apparently put real American dollars in action on a dally basis.
Of course, I am not complaining about them being in the pool. Quite to the "contrary." We should be thankful.Last edited by BeatingBaseball; 01-19-11, 06:45 PM.Comment -
I have been receiving a few PM's regarding baseball selections. I will be posting all selections to this thread. I sure wish the signature feature would be enabled. I guess the best way to address the record, we be to do a recap at the end or beginning of a day.
As far as unit count, I will be defaulting to one unit, one game as always. My money managment is private and face it, you just want the Contrarian to pick winners.
Any thoughts out there.Comment -
For your information, I will be posting all MLB selections to this thread. Addtionally, I will using a one unit per game recordkeeping method. I have been contemplating a change but the money managment of my selections is not really what you come here for. It is the selelction itself. I know the counter arguments, but my comfort level is what it is.
Beware O ContrareComment -
TheLock, who is my contrarian consigliere, is a fan of the 1-5 unit method. BB has chimed in as such. Perhaps it would be more challenging to apply this method. As you can see, very confused about which direction to go.Comment -
Great thread! It has me excited to cap some MLB (my fav) and I look forward to the great analysis here you here provide.
Speaking of futures~ Im liking the A's more and more as a longshot, they signed Fuentes yesterday and rumor they might add vladdy as well. Could be the SF of the 2011?
Look forward to following along...Comment -
You could be right.
Believe it or not - there are those who rate the A's starting staff #2 in the game - just below the Phillies and ABOVE the Giants:
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Pair, I highly recommend taking a look at betting on Matchbook. From a quick glance, I only saw maybe 1 in 5 games with a line of -110 or worse for a single team. If you match someone else's bet, you pay 1% (which still makes a -105 bet beat what you would have had to pay at -110), or if you lay your own odds, you make .2%. With College basketball, there may not be as many bettors and lines might not be as good as other sports, but with baseball and NFL, it is very rare where I don't see games +105 on a side when more mainstream sites give -110 on both.
Even if you rarely use it, a few bucks here and there always adds up.
Hopefully we have a good year this year and we can make some money. I really like the A's bet, though I'm not so sure the 'Stros have any chance.Comment
