Game 1 price/series price setting up exactly like ALCS

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    Game 1 price/series price setting up exactly like ALCS
    Remember when Detroit was favored to win Game 1 in Texas with Verlander vs. CJW yet the Rangers were -140 to take the series? That made very little sense, unless Texas was the play in Game 1.

    Same rules apply here. No reason for the Rangers to be priced the way they are overall -- especially without home field advantage -- if the books think they'll drop Game 1. I'm taking Texas Wednesday night for 5U minimum.
  • qbsafety8
    Restricted User
    • 10-23-10
    • 393

    #2
    im tryna remember but i think there was a similar situation in the heat-mavs finals too?? yet, the dog took the ship... idk, maybe nba has no application to the mlb but i think the cards take it tomorrow... either way, i think itll go over. (although i kind of sound like a square with all the overs i like lately) But, one of these two teams will score 6 runs minimum.
    Comment
    • lakerboy
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 04-02-09
      • 94379

      #3
      nba cant be compared. the cards are not the mavs and the rangers are certainly not the heat
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #4
        If the Cardinals were the play, you'd just take them to win the series at +145 or whatever, wait for the Rangers to lose Game 1, then pound the Rangers after Game 1 for an easy profit. Think about it.
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #5
          Originally posted by No coincidences
          Remember when Detroit was favored to win Game 1 in Texas with Verlander vs. CJW yet the Rangers were -140 to take the series? That made very little sense, unless Texas was the play in Game 1.

          Same rules apply here. No reason for the Rangers to be priced the way they are overall -- especially without home field advantage -- if the books think they'll drop Game 1. I'm taking Texas Wednesday night for 5U minimum.
          I cant remember, but didnt these same "rules" lose on an earlier series? Either the brewers/cards or tigers/yanks?

          Good luck in the world series bud
          Comment
          • ebbearsfb1
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 12-07-08
            • 18815

            #6
            Past results don't guarantee future success
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            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by Love The Action
              I cant remember, but didnt these same "rules" lose on an earlier series? Either the brewers/cards or tigers/yanks?

              Good luck in the world series bud
              Not that I know of, but I'm not sure.
              Comment
              • linedrivr
                SBR MVP
                • 01-04-10
                • 2223

                #8
                Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                Past results don't guarantee future success
                an excellent standard to live by! especially if you like to hang on to your money.
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                • No coincidences
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 01-18-10
                  • 76300

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                  Past results don't guarantee future success
                  I'd be interested to see what the series price would be if the Cards win Game 1. I just can't see the books giving away a +110 on the Rangers in Game 1, a +140 for the series on the Cards, and then a similar number when Texas loses the first game. That's just bad business.
                  Comment
                  • ebbearsfb1
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-07-08
                    • 18815

                    #10
                    If cards wins game 1 3 to 2 what do you think the price would be if they are minus 160 for the series...maybe rangers minus 110
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                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                      If cards wins game 1 3 to 2 what do you think the price would be if they are minus 160 for the series...maybe rangers minus 110
                      Score is irrelevant. I think TEX would be about +120 if they lost Game 1. You'd have a team with home field advantage with a 1-0 lead in a best of 7 series -- I don't know how the Cardinals wouldn't be favored at that point.
                      Comment
                      • ebbearsfb1
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-07-08
                        • 18815

                        #12
                        Will find out... cards win game 1 rangers 2 and 3... cards 4 5 rangers 6 cards 7
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                          Will find out... cards win game 1 rangers 2 and 3... cards 4 5 rangers 6 cards 7
                          You think the Cards win two in a row in Texas trailing 2-1 in the series?
                          Comment
                          • ebbearsfb1
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 12-07-08
                            • 18815

                            #14
                            that's my opinion.
                            Comment
                            • Jcm144
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 08-13-11
                              • 227

                              #15
                              What lines are u guys getting on Texas tonight?....... Im getting +109 wondering if I should wait for the line to go up? Or is the public on Texas for todays game
                              Comment
                              • thetrinity
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-25-11
                                • 22433

                                #16
                                agree nocoin, especially since cardinals have the pitching advantage and homefield for this game. for the series bets i kinda like under 5.5 games (+162) and texas -1.5 games (+133). better value then just taking texas -150ish for the whole series. it should be noted that both of these teams are pretty good road teams, winning a game 7 on the road in the world series is a very tough task though, i believe the last 8 game 7s were won by the home squad.
                                Comment
                                • Regul8er
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-06-07
                                  • 10666

                                  #17
                                  One difference NC......this game isnt being played in Arlington!
                                  Comment
                                  • og4667
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 09-17-09
                                    • 2438

                                    #18
                                    rangers being favored now up to -157 on bookmaker for the series says a lot especially considering the home field advantage....

                                    Also take into account that the alternate runline for texas -1.5 is +150 and the cardinals are -1.5 +175. So according to bookmaker the rangers being +115 for tonight's game have a better chance of winning by 2 or more runs than the cardinals who are the home favorite for tonight???

                                    I have seen this before and this situation would favor a play on the rangers tonight.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Regul8er
                                      One difference NC......this game isnt being played in Arlington!
                                      All the more reason to play them. At least in the DET series, you could say they were -140 with home field advantage. Now they don't even have that, they're still underdogs in the first game, yet they're still favored by an odd amount to take the series.

                                      TEX +116 (11U)
                                      TEX/StL under 7.5 (1U)
                                      StL TT under 4 (1U)

                                      If Texas loses tonight -- and yes, this is tied for my biggest MLB bet of the year -- I will probably go 15-20U on them in Game 2, as well as pounding the series price.
                                      Comment
                                      • BettingWizard
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-28-09
                                        • 6522

                                        #20
                                        you're overthinking this

                                        verlander isn't going to be a dog anywhere, except at yankees stadium

                                        carpenter isn't going to be a dog at home


                                        The series price is the way it is because st louis' weakest pitchers will be starting in arlington, and probably be in the +150 to +170 range
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                                        • No coincidences
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 01-18-10
                                          • 76300

                                          #21
                                          Just saw the most recent weather forecast -- might have to slow my roll. If there are delays coming, I'll still play the Rangers, but not nearly as big given the uncertainty of the starts and stops.
                                          Comment
                                          • BennyFang
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-27-09
                                            • 1412

                                            #22
                                            I thought this was interesting from my local book:

                                            Texas wins game 1 and series: +150
                                            Texas loses game one and wins series: +225

                                            So it looks as if, given that the oddsmakers are making Texas a decided series favorite, they are in a sense favoring them in Game 1. Am I missing something?
                                            Comment
                                            • dontbuythehook
                                              Restricted User
                                              • 09-23-11
                                              • 837

                                              #23
                                              Tex +120 bookmaker and -145 for series. This is because of the rain/money coming in on STL b/c of so? or just normal movement?
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by BettingWizard
                                                you're overthinking this

                                                verlander isn't going to be a dog anywhere, except at yankees stadium

                                                carpenter isn't going to be a dog at home


                                                The series price is the way it is because st louis' weakest pitchers will be starting in arlington, and probably be in the +150 to +170 range
                                                As opposed to the horses Harrison and Holland that Texas will be trotting out there.

                                                You're telling me those two are better than Lohse and Jackson?
                                                Comment
                                                • No coincidences
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 01-18-10
                                                  • 76300

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by BettingWizard
                                                  you're overthinking this

                                                  verlander isn't going to be a dog anywhere, except at yankees stadium

                                                  carpenter isn't going to be a dog at home


                                                  The series price is the way it is because st louis' weakest pitchers will be starting in arlington, and probably be in the +150 to +170 range
                                                  I wasn't surprised by the Game 1 line -- I was surprised by the series line. I thought the Game 1 line was pretty much spot on.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • lakerboy
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 04-02-09
                                                    • 94379

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                    As opposed to the horses Harrison and Holland that Texas will be trotting out there.

                                                    You're telling me those two are better than Lohse and Jackson?


                                                    Harrison has been pretty good for awhile. jackson will get rocked
                                                    Comment
                                                    • No coincidences
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-18-10
                                                      • 76300

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by lakerboy
                                                      Harrison has been pretty good for awhile. jackson will get rocked
                                                      Yeah, but Harrison's facing Lohse (who's been halfway decent) and Jackson's going against Holland, who's a fruity bum.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • lakerboy
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 04-02-09
                                                        • 94379

                                                        #28
                                                        no coin clear your fukkin inbox
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #29
                                                          Done LB. Sorry.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #30
                                                            f\*\*k this.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • No coincidences
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 01-18-10
                                                              • 76300

                                                              #31
                                                              Done in by mental midget Ron Washington.

                                                              Comment
                                                              • broadway6
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-14-09
                                                                • 13337

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by No coincidences

                                                                I'd be interested to see what the series price would be if the Cards win Game 1. I just can't see the books giving away a +110 on the Rangers in Game 1, a +140 for the series on the Cards, and then a similar number when Texas loses the first game. That's just bad business.



                                                                maybe the books are going to take all that -150/-160 texas juice
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ebbearsfb1
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-07-08
                                                                  • 18815

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by ebbearsfb1
                                                                  If cards wins game 1 3 to 2 what do you think the price would be if they are minus 160 for the series...maybe rangers minus 110
                                                                  this
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • No coincidences
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                                    • 76300

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Well, here comes the arb. Sharps can nail Texas at +120 or whatever after hitting the Cards at that ridiculous opening series number.

                                                                    Interesting.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • broadway6
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-14-09
                                                                      • 13337

                                                                      #35
                                                                      you act like the cards don't have a shot... shame on you no coin!!
                                                                      Comment
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