Capping and Discussions 4/11

[Wassymac]

Just to play devils advocate for a sec. It might do the Padres some good to get out of town for a while. Rockies really humiliated them. Today we have seen home teams playing tight in their home openers. T.B, Tigers, Pirates for example. Just don't see Marlins has having an edge tomorrow.

Thats why we're all here to discuss differing opinions. I understand the home teams playing tight but with their being zero expectations and nearly zero fans hopefully that won't affect the Marlins. Its more of a play on Mitre and against Woody if anything. At this point in their careers anything close to PK....I have to like Mitre.

[Wassymac]

Definitely seems worth a shot at +180 (could even get better)...Towers had a rough go of it and Beckett was lights out their first time out. That has to inflate the # even more.

Any thoughts on my Florida play?

[Alamorich]

One game that sticks out to me a bit is Florida -109 @ Home over the Padres. Mitre paid off for me in his first start (6 INN 3HITS 0ERs) and faces a very cold Padres squad with a aging Woody Williams on the hill. Doesn't feel great to lay any chalk with a 1-4 rebuilding squad but for tomorrow I like it.

Note the trend of Woody's ERA since I've paid attention to him (i.e...when the Cards stole him for Ray Lankford in 2001). I also seem to recall him struggling in day games but don't have the numbers in front of me.

2001 St. Louis 2.28
2002 St. Louis 2.53
2003 St. Louis 3.83
2004 San Diego 4.18
2005 San Diego 4.83

Just to play devils advocate for a sec. It might do the Padres some good to get out of town for a while. Rockies really humiliated them. Today we have seen home teams playing tight in their home openers. T.B, Tigers, Pirates for example. Just don't see Marlins has having an edge tomorrow.

[moses millsap]

At +180, Blue Jays need to win this game more than 35.7% of the time to produce value.

[Razz]

Couldn't have said it much better wassymac. Is Toronto going to win this game more than 50% of the time? Probably not. But they will win it 2 out of 5, which over time amounts to a nice profit. Beckett is the most highly publicized career .500 pitcher in baseball history, and I have feasted by going against him in the past.

[Wassymac]

I was going to comment on the Toronto/Boston game thinking +180 was quite the price for the Jays...against who I feel is a slightly overrated and inconsistent Beckett. I see Razz has 2 units on it...so maybe I was on the right track?

[Wassymac]

One game that sticks out to me a bit is Florida -109 @ Home over the Padres. Mitre paid off for me in his first start (6 INN 3HITS 0ERs) and faces a very cold Padres squad with a aging Woody Williams on the hill. Doesn't feel great to lay any chalk with a 1-4 rebuilding squad but for tomorrow I like it.

Note the trend of Woody's ERA since I've paid attention to him (i.e...when the Cards stole him for Ray Lankford in 2001). I also seem to recall him struggling in day games but don't have the numbers in front of me.

2001 St. Louis 2.28
2002 St. Louis 2.53
2003 St. Louis 3.83
2004 San Diego 4.18
2005 San Diego 4.83

[Illusion]

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