Post your comments and leans in this thread. If you have a play post it in the regular best bets thread. Remember, this is for comments and leans only. No results will be tracked from this thread.
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One game that sticks out to me a bit is Florida -109 @ Home over the Padres. Mitre paid off for me in his first start (6 INN 3HITS 0ERs) and faces a very cold Padres squad with a aging Woody Williams on the hill. Doesn't feel great to lay any chalk with a 1-4 rebuilding squad but for tomorrow I like it.
Note the trend of Woody's ERA since I've paid attention to him (i.e...when the Cards stole him for Ray Lankford in 2001). I also seem to recall him struggling in day games but don't have the numbers in front of me.
2001 St. Louis 2.28
2002 St. Louis 2.53
2003 St. Louis 3.83
2004 San Diego 4.18
2005 San Diego 4.83Last edited by Wassymac; 04-10-06, 10:32 PM.Comment -
I was going to comment on the Toronto/Boston game thinking +180 was quite the price for the Jays...against who I feel is a slightly overrated and inconsistent Beckett. I see Razz has 2 units on it...so maybe I was on the right track?Comment -
Couldn't have said it much better wassymac. Is Toronto going to win this game more than 50% of the time? Probably not. But they will win it 2 out of 5, which over time amounts to a nice profit. Beckett is the most highly publicized career .500 pitcher in baseball history, and I have feasted by going against him in the past.Comment -
At +180, Blue Jays need to win this game more than 35.7% of the time to produce value.Comment -
Just to play devils advocate for a sec. It might do the Padres some good to get out of town for a while. Rockies really humiliated them. Today we have seen home teams playing tight in their home openers. T.B, Tigers, Pirates for example. Just don't see Marlins has having an edge tomorrow.Originally posted by WassymacComment -
Definitely seems worth a shot at +180 (could even get better)...Towers had a rough go of it and Beckett was lights out their first time out. That has to inflate the # even more.
Any thoughts on my Florida play?Comment -
Originally posted by Alamorich
Thats why we're all here to discuss differing opinions. I understand the home teams playing tight but with their being zero expectations and nearly zero fans hopefully that won't affect the Marlins. Its more of a play on Mitre and against Woody if anything. At this point in their careers anything close to PK....I have to like Mitre.Comment -
Toronto can win that game tomorrow.
I also like Houston as a big dog only because Morris pitched well last game and he seems to either pitch lights out or he gets bombed. Good chance on him getting rocked tomorrow.
Can you see the Royals spoiling Yankees opener? I know I would like to see that very much.Comment -
I hate tomorrow's card. Will take a look at Nats, Rockies, and Twins a little deeper.Comment -
It looks like a Parlay rich environment. Should be two over -150 favorites that can be put together for a good payday.Comment -
Cubs just swept Cardinals...any chance they will be a little off tomorrow? Reds have been hitting the crap out of the ball and Arroyo is not all that bad.Comment -
I like the Rockies under 9.5 tomorow. Cook will improve off of his first outing (he's the best on the staff) and the Rockies bats were way to hot against San Diego, they'll cool of a bit against El DukeOriginally posted by OWNEDComment -
I also like this play Alamo, the cubs are on an emotional high, the city thinks this could be the year!! Time for a let down.Originally posted by AlamorichComment -
anyone else considering taking a shot with KC tomorrow ?Comment -
Was considering KC +2 @ +100, but not so sure. Likely to be a bloodbath with Mays dealing for themOriginally posted by bigboydanComment -
Im strongly considering it at +240ish.Originally posted by bigboydan
But like OWNED said, Mays is the question. He needs the run support to keep up with the runs he gives up.
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I think the Yankees win this game approximately 80 times out of 100, so no value in betting KC, imo, but anytime you can get two runs at even money, it's tempting.Comment -
Kind of a gimmick bet but I like the Royals/Yanks O 5.5 for the first 5 tomorrow. I could see this one hitting in the bottom of the 1st with Mays on the hill.Comment -
Big Apple's teams playing afternoon ball...
Kansas City (J.Mays) at New York (CM.Wang) – 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Weather: Should be a nice day in the Bronx, high of 65°, more sun than clouds and winds out of south at 10-20 MPH (blowing from RF corner to LF corner).
Umpires: Your guess as good as mine right now.
KCR: Joe Mays gets his second start of the season for the Royals after being pummeled by the Tigers in his first start of the year. He’s 0-3 with a 6.93 ERA in his last four starts against the Yanks (25.2 IP), and has a 10.97 ERA and 0-2 mark in his most recent pair of starts in the Bronx. Alex Rodriguez (.333, 2 HR, 24 AB), Hideki Matsui (/364, HR, 11 AB) and Robinson Cano (.714, 5-for-7) feast on Mays. Johnny Damon (.182, 22 AB) is the NYY hitter who has had the most trouble with Mays.
NYY: Chien-Ming Wang pitched a little better in his first crack last week in Oakland, but like Mays didn’t get out of the fifth inning in a no-decision to the A’s. He has a 3-0 record and 1.86 ERA in four career day starts, and is 5-2 with a 3.55 ERA in nine career starts at The Stadium. According to my files, this is his first start against the Royals, and Wang has limited experience against the hitters they will trot out. Reggie Sanders is 2-for-3 lifetime against Wang, with Tony Graffanino and Mark Grudzielanek a combined 0-for-5.
My Play: Hate the -270 price, but I’m either paying it for this one or not betting it at all.
New York (B.Bannister) at Washington (Ra.Ortiz) – 1:05 p.m. (ET)
Weather: Super spring day in DC, high 73°, sunny with south winds 10-20 MPH (blowing out).
Umpires: Your guess is as good as mine right now.
NYM: Rookie Brian Bannister makes just the second MLB start of his career on the road in pitcher-friendly RFK. The right-hander out of USC and Scottsdale, AZ, used 100 pitches in his start last week at home to the same Nats, and got in six innings of decent action before the bullpen fell apart for the Mets and helped Washington to a 9-5 win. In that game, Nick Johnson took Bannister deep, but Royce Clayton, Jose Guillen, Alfonso Soriano and Ryan Zimmerman were a combined 0-for-9.
WAS: Ramon Ortiz took the loss in his first start last week in New York against the Mets, serving up a homer among the 10 hits he allowed over five innings. This is only his second career start at RFK (0-1, 3.00 ERA), and he is now 1-2 with a 4.05 ERA in three career starts against the Mets. Carlos Delgado (.400, 5 HR, 30 AB) drools like Pavlov’s dog after a bell ringing contest when he sees Ortiz on the mound. Jose Valentin (.417, HR, 12 AB) has also had success against the skinny right-hander while Carlos Beltran (.174, HR, 23 AB) and Cliff Floyd (.167, 12 AB) have struggled.
My Play: Wind blowing out in a pitcher’s park has me leaning ever so slightly to the o8½. Don't like the price on the over, so I might wait until I hear the wind's still blowing at noon to make the bet. Nats are coming off some tough, close losses in Houston over the weekend with a bullpen slightly worn out from an extra inning game yesterday followed by flight home. The Mets, meanwhile, had Monday off. So I like the Mets (-124) in this one, also ever so slightly.Last edited by Willie Bee; 04-11-06, 09:45 AM. Reason: fat fingered typist I dictate my posts to messed upComment -
The Nationals just pulled an amazing, and likely unprecedented feat. After a leadoff single in the second inning, the next three batters all proceeded to get ahead 3-0 in their respective counts. Somehow, all three managed to get out.
Elsewhere, Giambi hits a 3-run HR on an 0-2 pitch.Comment -
Which do you guys like better out of the two?
Reds Team Total over 6.5 +110
Reds Team Total over 6 -120Comment -
Damn, passed on this bet and Reds got 3 HRs already. LOL.Originally posted by OWNEDComment -
I didn't have the guts to pull the trigger either....no guts no glory....hopefully Yanks will win it so I can stop kicking myself.Originally posted by OWNEDComment -
This is crap. almost everyday, all of my picks lose. cubs are losing, toronto is losing, yankees are losing, nationals are losing. this is unreal.Comment -
i just don't understand how i can be so unlucky to be down over 10 units in just over 1 week of the season.Comment -
I am playing 500 ball ml....jump on my back for a while till you get your head straight.Comment -
Surely the Royals don't blow this game...Comment -
Jeter comes through in the clutch as usual.Comment -
Couple of late contests this evening...
Hey witchking, fade me on my Houston picks and you'll be lighting $20 cigars with $100 bills before too long
Colorado (A.Cook) at Arizona (O.Hernandez) – 9:40 p.m. (ET)
Weather: Clear with temps in the low 70s, upper 60s at game time. SSE winds, 5 MPH (towards left-center).
Umpires: New crew.
Aaron Cook looks for his first win after pitching pretty well last week in his start at home in Denver (7 IP, 3 runs). Throws a hard sinker, and has completed two of his four previous starts against the Snakes (both in Coors, however). In the desert, Cook is 0-0 in a pair of starts with a 5.54 ERA. He hates to see Chad Tracy (.467, 15 AB) at the plate, but handles Shawn Green (.259, 27 AB), Luis Gonzalez (.235, HR, 17 AB), Craig Counsell (.176, 17 AB) and Tony Clark (.182, 11 AB) fairly well.
Orlando Hernandez burned up 96 pitches in just five innings at Denver last week, but picked up the win when he whiffed eight and didn’t allow a long ball. That was just his second career start against the Rox, and he doesn’t have much of a track record against any of their hitters as you’d expect. Todd Helton (3-for-4, 2 BB) has hit El Duque well, with Danny Ardoin, Matt Holliday and Brad Hawpe a combined 0-for-15 with eight strikeouts against Hernandez.
My Play: If Cook can keep Gonzalez and young Conor Jackson off the bases for the D-Backs, I like him in this game. Rockies are coming off a quiet sweep of the Pads in San Diego and looking to spoil Arizona’s home opener. Plus it’s the second time their young hitters have seen Hernandez.
Houston (T.Buchholz) at San Francisco (M.Morris) – 10:15 p.m. (ET)
Weather: Might not get this one in with rain this afternoon and forecast to continue this evening. Should be low 50s, with winds 10-20 MPH from the SE (in from right-center).
Umpires: New crew.
Taylor Buchholz makes his first MLB start after a fine spring won him the #5 starter’s job for the Astros. It’s only his second MLB appearance overall after a 2+ inning relief stint last week for Houston. Buchholz is the third and final pitcher from the Billy Wagner trade to Philly a couple of winters (others were Brandon Duckworth and Ezequiel Astacio).
Matt Morris gets his second start for San Fran after signing with the Giants in the offseason. The big righty tossed into the seventh against the Padres in San Diego last week, picking up the win with his 104 pitches. Houston has had mixed results against him in the past, with Morris owning a 3-5 record in 11 starts despite a nice 3.31 ERA and very strong .217 BAA (73.1 IP). But Morris has been awful at the new park by the bay, losing both starts he’s made with a 10.39 ERA (he was absolutely lit up in one start there). He doesn’t like to see Lance Berkman (.357, 2 HR, 56 AB) or Mike Lamb (.357, 3 HR, 14 AB) in the box against him. I’m looking for Lamb to get the start tonight at 1B with Berkman in LF and Preston Wilson starting on the bench. Morris has done well against Craig Biggio (.232, HR, 69 AB) and Morgan Ensberg (.214, 14 AB).
My Play: Oh lord, don’t ask me since I never seem to have my feces coagulated with regards to the 'Stros. Houston has had a lot of trouble playing in San Francisco, be it the new park or old Candlestick, going 1-2 there a year ago. However, I do like that +145 that was listed at VIP this morning
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Whoever wagered on the Royals I give you credit. To wager against the
Yankees on opening day!Comment -
I had them today and also had a quarter unit on the reverse runline.Originally posted by imgv94
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i have the yankees in a parlay with the indians. its sounded like a good way to bet since the money line was so bad, but these yankees almost always find a way to lose.Comment -
the twins offense comes alive with 6 runs in the bottom of the third. they are still batting as well. oakland is behind 6-4Comment -
Did you guys see that catch/trap by the Rockies left feilder? He trapped it, but still got the double play.Comment
