Wednesday

[God1]

I think about the only time I'm pissed when I get beat and can't help but be results oriented is to lose a total on a groundball in the 9th with 2 outs and 3-2 to a guy with under 50 lifetime ABs

[Boxer300]

"I think about the only time I'm pissed when I get beat and can't help but be results oriented is to lose a total on a groundball in the 9th with 2 outs and 3-2 to a guy with under 50 lifetime ABs"

[God1]

wade davis at home against another bad pitcher could you ask for a better situation?

[No coincidences]

wade davis at home against another bad pitcher could you ask for a better situation?

You have more faith in Davis than I do, but TB should win that game.

Notice Bodog's sitting at +103 and bookmaker -101 for Toronto, while Pinny's at +114 and Matchbook +112.

[God1]

You have more faith in Davis than I do, but TB should win that game.

whoa i'm betting against davis. i've been on the wade davis fade for weeks. he's the worst pitcher in baseball

it's a plus that he's at home and facing bad pitching because both circumstances distort the line

[No coincidences]

whoa i'm betting against davis. i've been on the wade davis fade for weeks. he's the worst pitcher in baseball

it's a plus that he's at home and facing bad pitching because both distort the line

My bad -- I thought you liked Davis. Someone on this forum tried convincing me once that he's underrated.

In any event, I wouldn't necessarily take Toronto in this spot either.

[No coincidences]

What do you think about Bumgarner and the Giants tomorrow God?

[God1]

My bad -- I thought you liked Davis. Someone on this forum tried convincing me once that he's underrated.

he's 2nd to last in SIERA, he was holding the crown for weeks recently

In any event, I wouldn't necessarily take Toronto in this spot either.

you don't like money

I love the giants, Lee given way too much of an advantage over the giants and the lefty/righty split pretty markedly favors the giants. The idea of philly being worse against lefties is wrong by a long margin though. Utley's lefty/righty split is an anamoly when to compared to his previous years. Howard gets crushed by lefties but Victorino's increase in OPS against them more than makes up for it. Philly is probably close to neutral righty/lefty but Giants are alot better against lefties

[Love The Action]

wade davis at home against another bad pitcher could you ask for a better situation?

I agree...I was just looking at the over. My model has it at 9.2 However:

• Cecil's splits are better on the road than at home. He has 3% better K%, .90 better FIP and .60 better xFIP.
• Cecil, for the fat pos he his, has pitched well of late.
• Cecil has limited this TB lineup to a .223 BAA and OPS under .650 over a small sample size, but still.

With that said, Davis is pitching and I've cashed with the over in his last three games. I expect the Toronto to rake tomorrow and get over 5 at least. The question is if TB will score off Cecil. You have to believe they will, but...

I hate 8.5 overs as well. Nevertheless, I can get 8.5 +100 right now and am contemplating it in now as I think we will see this one get to -120 on the over or more sometime tomorrow.

[No coincidences]

you don't like money

I like the under better than a side.

Will you promise me that the Jays win?

[No coincidences]

I agree...I was just looking at the over. My model has it at 9.2 However:

• Cecil's splits are better on the road than at home. He has 3% better K%, .90 better FIP and .60 better xFIP.
• Cecil, for the fat pos he his, has pitched well of late.
• Cecil has limited this TB lineup to a .223 BAA and OPS under .650 over a small sample size, but still.

With that said, Davis is pitching and I've cashed with the over in his last three games. I expect the Toronto to rake tomorrow and get over 5 at least. The question is if TB will score off Cecil. You have to believe they will, but...

I hate 8.5 unders as well. Nevertheless, I can get 8.5 +100 right now and am contemplating it in now as I think we will see this one get to -120 on the over or more sometime tomorrow.

8.5's a notorious over, but I think under is the play here.

[Love The Action]

I love the giants, Lee given way too much of an advantage over the giants and the lefty/righty split pretty markedly favors the giants

Exactly...Phillies hit markedly worse against lefties in almost every statistical category (standard or advanced), whereas the Giants hit slightly better against them. With that said, I also like the under.

[Love The Action]

8.5's a notorious over, but I think under is the play here.

Sorry...I meant the over. I hate taking 8.5 overs because of the 5-3, 6-2 finals. Nevertheless, I like the over in Toronto/TB game tomorrow and will probably lock it in soon.

[No coincidences]

Exactly...Phillies hit markedly worse against lefties in almost every statistical category (standard or advanced), whereas the Giants hit slightly better against them. With that said, I also like the under.

Only thing that worries me is Bum's occasional implosion. When he's off, he's really off. Still young and learning the ropes.

[No coincidences]

Sorry...I meant the over. I hate taking 8.5 overs because of the 5-3, 6-2 finals. Nevertheless, I like the over in Toronto/TB game tomorrow and will probably lock it in soon.

I thought I read once that more MLB games end on 7 or 9 than any other number?

[Love The Action]

Only thing that worries me is Bum's occasional implosion. When he's off, he's really off. Still young and learning the ropes.

Agreed...but he just had that last game. Check it out...after his implosions, he usually comes back with a strong performance. Plus, with the Phillies in town and with M Baum facing Lee, I have no doubt he is ready for this game.

[Love The Action]

I thought I read once that more MLB games end on 7 or 9 than any other number?

It's more of a thing with me...for some reason I have poor history of cashing 8.5 overs. Could be that I just remember losing them more often for on reason or another, but I struggle historically with that number. Just a weird thing...

[God1]

Phillies hit markedly worse against lefties in almost every statistical category (standard or advanced)

you need to look a little deeper than just the 100 games this season. to say the phillies will hit noticably worse vs lefties is just absurd. did chase utley just magically this year decide to start hitting righties better than lefties by a decent clip(.80 ops)? Or do you think it's more likely that we should trust his last 3 years which produced him hitting lefties better than righties by about .80 ops?

whereas the Giants hit slightly better against them.

instead of just looking at the entire giants team against lefties/righties during the season, which is way too broad, why not look at actually who is going to be playing tomorrow. it's more than a small advantage

[No coincidences]

It's more of a thing with me...for some reason I have poor history of cashing 8.5 overs. Could be that I just remember losing them more often for on reason or another, but I struggle historically with that number. Just a weird thing...

For me, 7.5 and 9.5 are good unders and 8.5 is a good over. But maybe that's just in my head too.

[God1]

[*]Cecil's splits are better on the road than at home. He has 3% better K%, .90 better FIP and .60 better xFIP.

you need to expand your sample size, it was the opposite last year. the idea of a pitcher being better than league avg away is garbage

[*]Cecil, for the fat pos he his, has pitched well of late.

more of a negative than a positive

[*]Cecil has limited this TB lineup to a .223 BAA and OPS under .650 over a small sample size, but still.

irrelevant when each batter has less than 10 ABs

[God1]

I thought I read once that more MLB games end on 7 or 9 than any other number?

obviously

[Love The Action]

you need to look a little deeper than just the 100 games this season. to say the phillies will hit noticably worse vs lefties is just absurd



instead of just looking at the entire giants team against lefties/righties during the season, which is way too broad, why not look at actually who is going to be playing tomorrow. it's more than a small advantage

To get a statistically significant edge, you need 500 AB's or more for each player to make a controlling determination. Historically, Howard has been dominated by lefties throughout his career. Utley, outside of a few categories, has fared a bit worse against lefties. Nevertheless, as a team this year, in about 1000 AB's versus lefties and 3000 versus righties, they are hitting signficantly worse against lefties. As you, yourself mentioned, "the lefty/right split markedly favors the giants." Your words, not mine. But I do agree as layed out above. Sure, 1000 AB's as a team in not anywhere near the sample size you would like, however, that's all their is for this year and I do give current season results a level of significance.

I'd love to look at who is playing tomorrow, but unless you have a crystal ball you are not sharing, the lineups have not been released yet. Don't be so dim. But I do review the expected starting lineups historical results.

[Love The Action]

you need to expand your sample size, it was the opposite last year. the idea of a pitcher being better than league avg away is garbage



more of a negative than a positive



irrelevant when each batter has less than 10 ABs

Again, I noted the small sample size. Cecil's recent positive performances could be a negative, if you expect him to regress. If you expect him to continue his success, which I do not, then it would not be a negative.

As an FYI, Longoria, Zobrist and Upton all have near 20 AB's against Cecil lifetime. Not that this is any more significant, but almost double the 10 you mention.

[God1]

To get a statistically significant edge, you need 500 AB's or more for each player to make a controlling determination. Historically, Howard has been dominated by lefties throughout his career. Utley, outside of a few categories, has fared a bit worse against lefties.

Utley from 08-2010 .942 OPS vs lefites, .861 vs righties. Ryan Howard hits for a .250 OPS less vs lefties over that same period(.300 this year). Victorino hits for .150 OPS better against lefties over the 08-2010 period(.350 OPS better this year). Rollins hit lefties better for .09 OPS during that period(over .200 OPS worse this year).

Last year philly hits lefties BETTER than righties by .30 OPS. 09 phillies hit lefties BETTER by .08 OPS.

Now you tell me, do you believe that Utley and Rollins, which make up most of the deficiency against lefties this year vs past years for the phillies, have just magically become COMPLETELY DIFFERENT hitters vs lefties in the last 100 games?

Nevertheless, as a team this year, in about 1000 AB's versus lefties and 3000 versus righties, they are hitting signficantly worse against lefties.

see above

"the lefty/right split markedly favors the giants." Your words, not mine.

Yes the giants hit lefties alot better

I'd love to look at who is playing tomorrow, but unless you have a crystal ball you are not sharing, the lineups have not been released yet. Don't be so dim.

You can guarantee that Roward will be platooning in place of Torres which is a huge bump in the leadoff spot. Keppinger and Beltran are now on the team and they weren't included in these season stats. Random terrible hanger ons like Emmanuel Burris, Brandon Crawford, Pat Burrell, and of course Buster Posey will not be playing(and Torres will be sitting) and they drag down the giants overall lefty stats by quite a bit. those guys combined for over 20% of the giants ABs vs lefties this year and combined they hit under .200

Now tell me why you should include those 5 when analyzing the game tomorrow?

[God1]

Again, I noted the small sample size. Cecil's recent positive performances could be a negative, if you expect him to regress.

any irrelevant information that influences the market to drive up the price of your position is a negative. I would rather him have gotten shelled for 10 runs in his last 2 starts because that would influence the market away from my position

[Lloyd Smuggs]

I'll be honest , when I see a game that is 7.5 and lower , I normally go for the under , especially if it is 6.5 . Put if I see a 8 or a 8.5 then ill most certainly will bet over. If its 9 or above then I also normally bet over over especially if its Boston playing , but if its 9 or over and a team like Cws or Cleveland is playing then ill normally bet under. But it really does depend on the teams that are playing...for example, cubs and Stl games always seem to start of around 7.5 even though most their games are high scoring ones .

[Boxer300]

LTA why waste your time with this guy? He thinks he knows more than anyone here and its obvious he doesn't. How did that Astros total work out for you?

[God1]

How did that Astros total work out for you?

Not as well as the astros ml or when i bet the under the last 2 games thats for sure!

[No coincidences]

any irrelevant information that influences the market to drive up the price of your position is a negative. I would rather him have gotten shelled for 10 runs in his last 2 starts because that would influence the market away from my position

If that were the case, the line would be moving in Toronto's favor. It isn't -- at least not yet. And again, note the significantly higher + number Pinny and Matchbook are hanging.

[Boxer300]

You are a liar Earlier you wanted to talk about how the Astros had no hitters left on their team, but you still picked them? BS! Maybe you should try to not be so condescending when you post.

[God1]

If that were the case, the line would be moving in Toronto's favor.

The reasons for a line moving or not are infinitely more complicated than if a pitcher has been doing well the past 3 games. But I didn't mean to imply that recent success translates to a definite decrease in value, I have no evidence of that. I guess I meant that i'd much rather be betting on a pitcher who has been torched the last few games(a net positive for value) than done well.

And again, note the significantly higher + number Pinny and Matchbook are hanging.

Why does a number that a less sharp book puts out matter at all?

[God1]

You are a liar

Scroll up in this thread I said astros before the game started

Earlier you wanted to talk about how the Astros had no hitters left on their team, but you still picked them? BS!

because they had a better chance to win than the price being offered

Maybe you should try to not be so condescending when you post.

Maybe you should try understanding how gambling works. A team can have 9 minor leaguers vs the red sox and if their chance of winning is 10% but the books are pricing it at 9% it's a good bet. now run along and go back to the kiddie games where you belong

[No coincidences]

The reasons for a line moving or not are infinitely more complicated than if a pitcher has been doing well the past 3 games. But I didn't mean to imply that recent success translates to a definite decrease in value, I have no evidence of that. I guess I meant that i'd much rather be betting on a pitcher who has been torched the last few games(a net positive for value) than done well.

Then you must love Britton and the Orioles tomorrow.

Why does a number that a less sharp book puts out matter at all?

Typically, if Pinny and Matchbook are hanging a number that is significantly higher than a Bodog or other rec. book, it's a bad sign.

Right now, Toronto is +116 at Pinny and just +103 at Bodog.

[God1]

Then you must love Britton and the Orioles tomorrow.

not getting out of the 1st inning in the last 2 starts is pretty exceptional and I'm not sure if normal rules apply. I'd have to be sure that there wasn't a material difference in his pitching those last 2 games before betting him. also, the market hates jeff francis so that complicates it more

Typically, if Pinny and Matchbook are hanging a number that is significantly higher than a Bodog or other rec. book, it's a bad sign.

why is that a bad sign? I still don't understand why a book like bodog who doesn't allow sharp bettors and has small limits and whose volume on a game is probably less than 5% of pinnacle's matters. All its worth is to be pounding an arbitrage if there is one to be had

[No coincidences]

why is that a bad sign? I still don't understand why a book like bodog who doesn't allow sharp bettors and has small limits and whose volume on a game is probably less than 5% of pinnacle's matters. All its worth is to be pounding an arbitrage if there is one to be had

Bodog appeals to the recreational gambler.

Sharp/big money is at Pinny.

You know all of this -- goes without saying.

If Toronto were a good looking early play, Pinny would typically lean more in their direction and usually the numbers would be reversed (i.e., public's taking Tampa and the line's moving accordingly in their favor; with the sharper/bigger money on Toronto to pull it back).

It's a very profitable venture to take a fave or dog that has a better number at Pinny than the recreational shops. If Toronto were +103 at Pinny right now and +116 at Bodog, I'd be very comfortable taking them. Since it's reversed, I have my doubts.