Wednesday

[God1]

If Toronto were a good looking early play, Pinny would typically lean more in their direction and usually the numbers would be reversed (i.e., public's taking Tampa and the line's moving accordingly in their favor; with the sharper/bigger money on Toronto to pull it back).

Line movements are infinitely more complex than what you are describing. A whale max betting can move a line just as a sharp can, just as a huge volume of recreational bettors can overwhelm "sharp" money.

It's a very profitable venture to take a fave or dog that has a better number at Pinny than the recreational shops.

lol i would love to see evidence. you are claiming that pinnacle lines all of a sudden aren't efficient as a result of a divergence in price put out by some hack book like bodog. you do realize how ridiculous that sounds?

If Toronto were +103 at Pinny right now and +116 at Bodog, I'd be very comfortable taking them. Since it's reversed, I have my doubts.

its beyond absurd that where bodog puts a line has an effect on the efficiency of pinnacle's lines. If i had to make a plausibility analogy I would say this is about as logical as Obama being an alien in disguise like in men in black

[No coincidences]

you are claiming that pinnacle lines all of a sudden aren't efficient as a result of a divergence in price put out by some hack book like bodog.

Quite the contrary. Pinny lines/leans are razor sharp.

Do you think they're just handing you a gift by giving out the best number on the market right now with Toronto?

[No coincidences]

its beyond absurd that where bodog puts a line has an effect on the efficiency of pinnacle's lines.

I never said that.

Bodog's sitting at +103 on Toronto right now because they're a hack book where no big/real/early money is being placed.

Meanwhile, Pinny's gone from +111 to +116. They're not going to trip themselves up and offer a dog at a price 13 cents better than shitty books (or 17 cents compared to Bookmaker) if their lean is Toronto.

Are you trying to convince me that some whale placed a huge bet at Pinny on Wade Davis for Thursday?

[God1]

Quite the contrary. Pinny lines/leans are razor sharp.

so then you realize the absurdity of claiming that where bodog's line is has some bearing on whether pinnacle's line is efficient?

Do you think they're just handing you a gift by giving out the best number on the market right now with Toronto?

The number that is out right now represents the opinion of the market that has been made so far in combination with pinnacle's weighting of sharp money. That basically describes the the number at any point whether it be now or 3 hours form now. The number that opens is a combination of what pinnacle thinks the probable outcome will be in combination with where they think volume and sharp money will come in(how this is weighted is anyone's guess and speculating is worthless).

[God1]

I never said that.

You said that if pinnacle had a line for a team that was alot cheaper than pinnacle, you would love to the bet at pinnacle. For example(your words), if toronto was +116 at bodog and +103 at pinnacle you would love Toronto. However, if Bodog's line was +103 this "lean" would never come into play. Therefore, the price Bodog sets it's line at is influencing, in your mind, whether pinnacle puts out an efficient line or not. Follow my logic?

[No coincidences]

so then you realize the absurdity of claiming that where bodog's line is has some bearing on whether pinnacle's line is efficient?

Again, where did I say that? Pinny's line is the most efficient on the market, bar none. Matchbook's is second. They're both offering Toronto at a great price because, at least early, their lean is Tampa.

Bodog's line and Pinny's line are mutually exclusive. It has zero bearing. Bodog's line is offering Toronto at +103 because no one is betting it there yet. Their members are lucky the damn number's even up.

The number that is out right now represents the opinion of the market that has been made so far in combination with pinnacle's weighting of sharp money. That basically describes the the number at any point whether it be now or 3 hours form now. The number that opens is a combination of what pinnacle thinks the probable outcome will be in combination with where they think volume and sharp money will come in(how this is weighted is anyone's guess and speculating is worthless).

I agree.

We'll see where it goes from here, but if Pinny closes with Toronto at, say, 5-7 cents higher than rec. books on Toronto with a similar - number on Tampa, the Rays will win. Watch.

[No coincidences]

You said that if pinnacle had a line for a team that was alot cheaper than pinnacle, you would love to the bet at pinnacle. For example(your words), if toronto was +116 at bodog and +103 at pinnacle you would love Toronto. However, if Bodog's line was +103 this "lean" would never come into play. Therefore, the price Bodog sets it's line at is influencing, in your mind, whether pinnacle puts out an efficient line or not. Follow my logic?

Replace Bodog with whatever. For me, it's basically Pinny/Matchbook vs. everyone else. Bodog has nothing to do with Pinnacle's line and vice versa. I'm saying early sharp money is hitting Tampa at Pinny, and Pinny opened with a higher + number on Toronto because their initial lean is also Tampa. Again, do you think it's a gift that the best number available if you like the Jays right now is at the two sharpest books?

[God1]

if Pinny closes with Toronto at, say, 5-7 cents higher than rec. books on Toronto with a similar - number on Tampa, the Rays will win. Watch.

This is obviously ridiculous. The rays have a defined probability of winning. If pinnacle closes the rays at -124/+117 and the rec books close at say -116/+106 all that means is that the rays will most likely win about 55% of the time(-120 true close)

[God1]

I'm saying early sharp money is hitting Tampa at Pinny, and Pinny opened with a higher + number on Toronto because their initial lean is also Tampa.

Lean is a bad word. The more accurate phrasing would be they think Tampa has a higher probability to win the game, obviously.

Again, do you think it's a gift that the best number available if you like the Jays right now is at the two sharpest books?

You are still taking into account where the rec books are at by saying this. The lines that rec books set are irrelevant period.

[No coincidences]

This is obviously ridiculous. The rays have a defined probability of winning. If pinnacle closes the rays at -124/+117 and the rec books close at say -116/+106 all that means is that the rays will most likely win about 55% of the time(-120 true close)

Notice I said similar - numbers.

Right now, it's +116/-123 at Pinny and +103/-123 at Bodog. It's just as key that Tampa is -123 at both shops as it is Toronto is 13 cents higher at the sharp book.

If it closes in a similar fashion -- where the + number is a big gap but the - number is almost the same -- Tampa will win.

If it closes at the numbers you posted, I agree -- there is no "hint" in the line and the game is anyone's guess.

[God1]

On one hand you seem to have a very clear understanding of how lines work but then some things you are saying are just the opposite I don't get it

[God1]

Notice I said similar - numbers.

Right now, it's +116/-123 at Pinny and +103/-123 at Bodog. It's just as key that Tampa is -123 at both shops as it is Toronto is 13 cents higher at the sharp book.

If it closes in a similar fashion -- where the + number is a big gap but the - number is almost the same -- Tampa will win.

Dude, this means that you think where Bodog(or any rec book) is setting their lines has some kind of influence on the efficiency of pinnacle's lines.

Let me ask you this: your scenario....A. bodog closes +110/-130 and pinnacle closes +116/-123 implying a about a 55% chance that the rays win. B. bodog closes +103/-123 and pinnacle closes +116/-123. Do you think now the rays have an implied probability of winning greater than 55% implied by the pinnacle true close?

[No coincidences]

On one hand you seem to have a very clear understanding of how lines work but then some things you are saying are just the opposite I don't get it

We'll see where this line closes. My argument is still incomplete -- I'm just posting what I see now, and that's Toronto's best price at the two sharpest baseball books which doesn't look good for Jays backers.

I don't know how many times I've cashed a big bet going strictly by the lines in the last 5 minutes at Pinny and Matchbook vs. everyone else. If the two sharp books, for instance, are offering +105 for Team A while everyone else is sitting at -107, I pound Team B -- especially if Team B opened as a dog. The most recent examples I can think of were Florida at Washington with Vaz pitching recently and Washington the other night vs. Lowe and Atlanta.

[No coincidences]

Dude, this means that you think where Bodog(or any rec book) is setting their lines has some kind of influence on the efficiency of pinnacle's lines.

Let me ask you this: your scenario....A. bodog closes +110/-130 and pinnacle closes +116/-123 implying a about a 55% chance that the rays win. B. bodog closes +103/-123 and pinnacle closes +116/-123. Do you think now the rays have an implied probability of winning greater than 55% implied by the pinnacle true close?

Yes I do. It tells me where the sharp money is, and who Pinnacle thinks will win. Not a foolproof plan, but that's a dangerous combination to fade.

If your B scenario happened, I'd bet Tampa every time -- even do it blindly. It's an even more valuable method to follow if a team closes as a dog at Pinny/Matchy but a fave nearly everywhere else. Not foolproof, but if I found out that hit at least 70% of the time I wouldn't be surprised at all.

[God1]

If your B scenario happened, I'd bet Tampa every time -- even do it blindly.

Then that means you think pinnacle's line efficiency changes based on where rec books set their lines. Come on man that is the dumbest thing i've ever heard

[God1]

Yes I do. It tells me where the sharp money is, and who Pinnacle thinks will win.

Obviously pinnacle thinks the rays will win 55% of the time if the line is set at +123/-116, regardless of where some rec book is. But you believe that pinnacle's close becomes inefficient just because of a line the rec books put out. On one hand you say pinnacle is razor sharp, but here you say that pinnacle's closer can become not razor sharp PURELY based on where the very inefficient rec books close at

[No coincidences]

Then that means you think pinnacle's line efficiency changes based on where rec books set their lines. Come on man that is the dumbest thing i've ever heard

Again, how are you drawing that conclusion? That means Pinny's line has been influenced by sharp money and its own take on the game. If they're offering a hint/lean in Tampa's direction at close, I'm taking Tampa unless I have a very strong reason to try and fade the sharpest money on the planet.

I just can't seem to communicate this with you: at the opening line, the 10 a.m. line and the closing line, Pinny and Matchbook are ahead of every other book with the efficiency of their lines. You know that and I know that. So if Pinny and Matchbook are seeing something the others aren't -- whether it be their oddsmakers or the money they're seeing coming in -- I'm giving that serious consideration. So if Pinny's hanging a +116/-123 at close while all of the other books are lagging behind at +103/-123, I'm taking the fave because sharp money is talking at the best books. Understand?

[No coincidences]

Obviously pinnacle thinks the rays will win 55% of the time if the line is set at +123/-116, regardless of where some rec book is. But you believe that pinnacle's close becomes inefficient just because of a line the rec books put out. On one hand you say pinnacle is razor sharp, but here you say that pinnacle's closer can become not razor sharp PURELY based on where the very inefficient rec books close at

I couldn't disagree more. Pinnacle's closer is way more razor sharp than a rec book, just like their opening number and where the money's headed at 10 a.m. So far, at the start of this line, Pinny is either seeing early big money or leaning in Tampa's favor. We'll see where it goes from here.

[God1]

Again, how are you drawing that conclusion?

dude I just gave you two scenarios where the ONLY difference was where bodog's line was and you said you would bet the second scenario everytime. That means that where bodog's line was influenced you to bet and of course you only make a bet if you think the line is inefficient and thus off by at least the vig

I just can't seem to communicate this with you: at the opening line, the 10 a.m. line and the closing line, Pinny and Matchbook are ahead of every other book with the efficiency of their lines. You know that and I know that. So if Pinny and Matchbook are seeing something the others aren't -- whether it be their oddsmakers or the money they're seeing coming in -- I'm giving that serious consideration. So if Pinny's hanging a +116/-123 at close while all of the other books are lagging behind at +103/-123, I'm taking the fave because sharp money is talking at the best books. Understand?

The sharp money at pinnacle has landed on a true line of rays -119.5, so how is -123 profitable?

I think the answer to our disconnect will be found in the answer to this question

[No coincidences]

dude I just gave you two scenarios where the ONLY difference was where bodog's line was and you said you would bet the second scenario everytime. That means that where bodog's line was influenced you to bet and of course you only make a bet if you think the line is inefficient and thus off by at least the vig

Not where Bodog's line is, but where Pinny's line is in comparison to it. I just use Bodog as an example, because I know sharp money isn't there. I value Pinny's line vs. the others, not the others vs. Pinny. I like to bet on the side of Pinny, not Bodog.

The sharp money at pinnacle has landed on a true line of rays -119.5, so how is -123 profitable?

I think the answer to our disconnect will be found in the answer to this question

The -123 is profitable based on the +116 at Pinny vs. the +103 at a rec. book. Again, why would Pinny offer a dog at 13 cents better than anywhere else if the dog was the play?

[God1]

The -123 is profitable based on the +116 at Pinny vs. the +103 at a rec. book.

lol so that means you think that pinnacle's close of -123/+116 is inefficient because of +103 at a rec book. that is exactly what you're saying. -123 being profitable would have to mean that pinnacle's line is inefficient. And since if the rec book had -130/+110 you wouldn't make the bet, you are assuming pinnacle's closer is inefficient PURELY based on where the rec book has its line. how are you not following this?

Again, why would Pinny offer a dog at 13 cents better than anywhere else if the dog was the play?

Pinnacle offers what it thinks is the "truest" line at that point in time, of course in combination with the market, pure and simple. Pinnacle does not care where any other inefficient book is, it's completely irrelevant to them

[No coincidences]

lol so that means you think that pinnacle's close of -123/+116 is inefficient because of +103 at a rec book. that is exactly what you're saying. -123 being profitable=pinnacle's line being inefficient. And since if the rec book had -130/+110 you wouldn't make the bet, you are assuming pinnacle's closer is inefficient PURELY based on where the rec book has its line. how are you not following this?

On the contrary -- Pinnacle's line is markedly efficient. Always. The rec. book is the one with the inefficient line. So where Pinny's line closes compared to everyone else is what I follow.

Here's another example: Pinny was juicing the over 5 TT for Boston and the over 4 TT for Cincinnati tonight. One of my books, BOL, offered Boston at 5.5 and Cincy at 4.5. So I took both TT unders -- not because of the inefficiency of Pinny's line, but the inefficiency of my rec. books. Get it? I tail Pinny's moves vs. the rec. books, not the other way around.

[No coincidences]

Anyway, I'm off to bed. I'm sorry I'm not getting my point across the way it should to you, because I agree with what you're saying. Take care.

[God1]

On the contrary -- Pinnacle's line is markedly efficient. Always. The rec. book is the one with the inefficient line. So where Pinny's line closes compared to everyone else is what I follow.

reread what you just responded to. The dependent variable in the scenarios is the rec book line, the pinnacle line stays the same in both scenarios therefore the rec book line is the one forcing the bet

Here's another example: Pinny was juicing the over 5 TT for Boston and the over 4 TT for Cincinnati tonight. One of my books, BOL, offered Boston at 5.5 and Cincy at 4.5. So I took both TT unders -- not because of the inefficiency of Pinny's line, but the inefficiency of my rec. books. Get it? I tail Pinny's moves vs. the rec. books, not the other way around.

This is completely different from what you were describing before. What you have here in an arbitrage where you bet cheaper lines at inefficient books. I get that, pinny arbitrage is the surest way to make money gambling. In the this blue jays line discussion you are betting the pinnacle line, not the cheaper line at a different book

anyway i'm going to sleep. this discussion is just going in circles good luck tomorrow

[God1]

still looking for an answer on this one....

I'd love to look at who is playing tomorrow, but unless you have a crystal ball you are not sharing, the lineups have not been released yet. Don't be so dim.

You can guarantee that Roward will be platooning in place of Torres which is a huge bump in the leadoff spot. Keppinger and Beltran are now on the team and they weren't included in these season stats. Random terrible hanger ons like Emmanuel Burris, Brandon Crawford, Pat Burrell, and of course Buster Posey will not be playing(and Torres will be sitting) and they drag down the giants overall lefty stats by quite a bit. those guys combined for over 20% of the giants ABs vs lefties this year and combined they hit under .200

Now tell me why you should include those 5 when analyzing the game tomorrow?

[BiffTFinancial]

2-1-1 +4.7u. Valverde turned a win into a push in the 9th in Detroit, but on the other hand, going FF under instead of game under in Houston paid big dividends. 5* plays now 5-2 on season.