LTA's MLB Plays

[Trivial]

I have today off work (first time in a while). On the road for a 2 hour drive to visit my wife's family. Good luck to all today. I am tailing today. I played the over 10 as i missed the 9.5 by 30 seconds or so for CWS.

Good luck to all.

[Love The Action]

I have today off work (first time in a while). On the road for a 2 hour drive to visit my wife's family. Good luck to all today. I am tailing today. I played the over 10 as i missed the 9.5 by 30 seconds or so for CWS.

Good luck to all.

Safe travels my friend. Hopefully we can make some money together today.

[meader99]

Thanks. Well, as you can see I went big on the Rays/Marlins under so that's my answer to your question about that game.

Be careful about the Balty under as the conditions are ripe for an over with really hot 97 degree weather and a wind blowing out at 10 mph. Very similar to the conditions in the White Sox over I played, although the pitchers in this game are much, much better. Hammel has put up great numbers so far, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? I like Philly to win that one, but I missed the best price in the -130's and I can't play it at the -140's so I will probably have to pass unless it drops back down.

I think that Bass has not been as sharp as late. He burned me when I backed him on the under in his last last start and that makes three bad starts in a row where he has given up at least 4 runs, whereas Gallardo has been pitching much better over the last month until his last start against the Cubs. With that said, however, Bass has never faced the Brewers before and has unfamiliarity working for him while Gallardo has been hit hard by that SD lineup that you mentioned is heating up. Based on the numbers, there is value on SD. I have them set at +137 but just not sure if I can trust Bass or SD right now. That reminds me of the Yankees/Mets game yesterday where there was a ton of value on Gee. I made the right decision and passed and I tend to think that might be the right decision again. We'll see.....

Cubs price just got better....up to +130's but as you mentioned I think we need to see more out of Liriano before we can back or fade him. Plus, the Cubs are the Cubs and if you don't get a complete game from the starting pitcher you always have to worry.

Anyway, good luck on all your plays my friend. Gotta get back to the card.

Something going on with Liriano? My book shows him pitching, but I notice on the sbr book they have someone else listed for the Twinkies.

[Love The Action]

Something going on with Liriano? My book shows him pitching, but I notice on the sbr book they have someone else listed for the Twinkies.

SBR odds often makes pitching listing errors. Always trust the pitchers listed on your book's website. Those are the ones that control. Liriano is pitching. Good luck on your plays.

[Love The Action]

5D still has O 9 -125 on reduced bet LTA...still like it?

Scratch that...went to play a half a unit and it is gone!

*********

But I wonder if there is value at NYY -1 with the Yanks being a perennial left handed hitting team and NYM struggling versus lefties so far this year?

Don't forget your half run calculations. http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-tool...nt-calculator/

-125 is a pretty heavy price to pay for any MLB total. I try to stick with -120 or less on all totals and I only play -120 where I think the half run is of the utmost importance. In this case, if you took over 9.5 at +105 or better then you are essentially getting the same price as 9 at -125. However, you don't get the protection of the push which is why you need to make the decision of whether it is worth that price. In most instances, this means you missed the best price and the better decision is to pass.

[Redscot]

Thanks. Well, as you can see I went big on the Rays/Marlins under so that's my answer to your question about that game.

Be careful about the Balty under as the conditions are ripe for an over with really hot 97 degree weather and a wind blowing out at 10 mph. Very similar to the conditions in the White Sox over I played, although the pitchers in this game are much, much better. Hammel has put up great numbers so far, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? I like Philly to win that one, but I missed the best price in the -130's and I can't play it at the -140's so I will probably have to pass unless it drops back down.


Anyway, good luck on all your plays my friend. Gotta get back to the card.

The heat bothers me more than the wind as these 2 are top 20 in GB%. If the pitchers get fatigued early these two pens are capable to hold the fort. The Phillies pen over the last month has been arguably the best in baseball by advanced stats standards. As per Hammel, I think he regresses but I also think we forget that he was a pretty decent pitcher 2009 and 2010, I think that more reflects him as a pitcher than last year. His increased use of the slider and his uptick in velocity should help him maintain decent enough numbers. Tough call here, because although Balty has been struggling offensively of late they have hit LHP well this season. I am really tempted here on the under, but will most likely pass, as you pointed out, the conditions are definitely adverse for that play....

[whtsox13]

The amount of unders I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning is staggering.. Whether I am playing a great bullpen or crap bullpen, I hit a run where most of my under plays have been losing late in the game because of poor bullpens and defense. However, that's just variance because eventually we have to hit a run here where the players start doing their job and those plays start hitting at the rate they imply by their 8th or 9th inning score. Those plays have always hit over the last two years so I don't see why they won't now. Its statistically unlikely that I can keep picking the one to three unders on every card that have a one to three run +ev cushion in the 8th or 9th inning and don't cash. When you have such a cushion like i have had in the majority of my unders, that implies a much larger hit rate than we have experienced thus far. Consequently, I expect that rate to increase soon in our favor and a big run to hit like it did earlier in the season when we got up to 18x. The unders were cashing then and they will once more. Good luck.

With this being my rookie season was curious if you ever look at "first five" scenarios, over/under or ML?

[Love The Action]

The heat bothers me more than the wind as these 2 are top 20 in GB%. If the pitchers get fatigued early these two pens are capable to hold the fort. The Phillies pen over the last month has been arguably the best in baseball by advanced stats standards. As per Hammel, I think he regresses but I also think we forget that he was a pretty decent pitcher 2009 and 2010, I think that more reflects him as a pitcher than last year. His increased use of the slider and his uptick in velocity should help him maintain decent enough numbers. Tough call here, because although Balty has been struggling offensively of late they have hit LHP well this season. I am really tempted here on the under, but will most likely pass, as you pointed out, the conditions are definitely adverse for that play....

To your point about Hammel, and one I should remember more often when evaluating him, is that he pitched in the thin air of Colorado for 3 full season which definitely will skew a pitchers numbers no matter how good they are. When you take that into account, the differences in his current numbers to career numbers that I highlighted in my post above to Guill about a possible Hammel regression may not be as significant as the numbers make them appear to be. I think I need to give him more deference and add look at his numbers by carving out a Coors field metric. I still don't think backing him against Lee is wise, but I think he is a guy to keep an eye and back moving forward in the right spots. He is not loved by the public, but the advanced stats love him and those are the guys you can really bank some money off of.

[Redscot]

With this being my rookie season was curious if you ever look at "first five" scenarios, over/under or ML?

Not answering for LTA here, but I tell ya, the more and more I cap, the more I am thinking of creating a separate spreadsheet and tracking 1st 5 plays. My evaluation of games revolves highly around the SP, so it only seems logical to me that eliminating the BP factor should favor me....I actually think it's time to explore it a little.

[Love The Action]

With this being my rookie season was curious if you ever look at "first five" scenarios, over/under or ML?

I generally stick with full game plays. When you add 1st five plays that adds overall variance and is not a "cure all" for tough beats brought on by bad bullpens. My model is set up for full game plays and that is what I generally play. It's a long season and baseball is about the grind. There will be rough patches and you just have to ride them out. I know what I have achieved in the past two seasons, so I am going to stick with what I know and have been successful with in the past rather than panic after a bad streak. Baseball is about keeping your head above water in times of negative variance and then capitalizing on your hot streaks while during a positive variance streak. I trust my model and abilities over the long term to recover from any bad streak. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Not answering for LTA here, but I tell ya, the more and more I cap, the more I am thinking of creating a separate spreadsheet and tracking 1st 5 plays. My evaluation of games revolves highly around the SP, so it only seems logical to me that eliminating the BP factor should favor me....I actually think it's time to explore it a little.

You will probably find that it all evens out over a large sample size. I tracked it for much of last season after we went through a similar streak of late inning losses caused by bullpens. However, what I found was that there ended up being a similar number of games that go over the 5 inning total but stay under the full game total as there were that stayed under the first five total but went over the full game total. With that said, I always encourage tracking so we can see what the current season trends are. Good luck and thanks for any work you put into it.

[Redscot]

I generally stick with full game plays. When you add 1st five plays that adds overall variance and is not a "cure all" for tough beats brought on by bad bullpens. My model is set up for full game plays and that is what I generally play. It's a long season and baseball is about the grind. There will be rough patches and you just have to ride them out. I know what I have achieved in the past two seasons, so I am going to stick with what I know and have been successful with in the past rather than panic after a bad streak. Baseball is about keeping your head above water in times of negative variance and then capitalizing on your hot streaks while during a positive variance streak. I trust my model and abilities over the long term to recover from any bad streak. Good luck.

I too have faith in your model bro...but philosophically speaking what would the pro's and con's of 1st 5 plays....Please chime in anyone who has an opinion.

For instance if Starting pitching is indeed one if not THE major component in capping a game, sure you eliminate BP concerns 1st 5, BUT the top notch starters value may increase in innings 6,7,8 where they distinguish themselves vs. 5 and fly guys, whose teams subsequently need to get into their middle relief (traditionally the weakest link on a pitching staff). Certainly 1st 5 is no panacea for escaping bad beats....I would be really interested in others thoughts on this subject....

[Love The Action]

I too have faith in your model bro...but philosophically speaking what would the pro's and con's of 1st 5 plays....Please chime in anyone who has an opinion.

For instance if Starting pitching is indeed one if not THE major component in capping a game, sure you eliminate BP concerns 1st 5, BUT the top notch starters value may increase in innings 6,7,8 where they distinguish themselves vs. 5 and fly guys, whose teams subsequently need to get into their middle relief (traditionally the weakest link on a pitching staff). Certainly 1st 5 is no panacea for escaping bad beats....I would be really interested in others thoughts on this subject....

As I mentioned above, over a large sample I think it would even out. I never tracked a large sample, only about 100 play sample and found that for the most part there was no true advantage. You might see a game between Verlander and Shields have a 4 run first five result that went over the 3.5 total, but the full game result stays under the full game total of 7.5 just as often as that same matchup would see the first five stay under 4 and go over 7.5. However, I would be interested in hearing from others that have tracked a very large sample where we could play around with the data. If we can find an edge, then we are doing our job. I will take an edge wherever I can find one....

[LoneStar]

You took my comment completely the wrong way, but I can see how you might have misinterpreted after I read my post. Not trying to be a dick....if you want to know I said what I said then PM me.

absolutely not, I took your comment for what was worth and address you. I thought it was pretty lame on your part to throw a good capper under the bus to defend your stance for your record as if my accountability (meaning winners/losers) wasn't noted on your fourm, regardless. I don't feel the need to PM ya, just to take this one off the record. I'm good with you acknowledging the fact after you read your own post and understanding the misinterpretation, so that just clarifies too me that I didn't take it the wrong way. You act as if I'd posted picks after they won. I posted winners/losser prior to the event! I could maybe understand the one "comment" about starting my own tread if I we're to piss on your plays or clog the tread, but I have done far from that pal. If your concern about my winners/loser for yesterday too, I went 11-3-1 (don't mind show screen shots of my wins or loses for yesterday) just didn't bother posting due to your outlandish comment and slow Internet connect due to weather. Next time don't kill the messenger, especially when hes delivering good mail on time.

[Redscot]

Pettitte have you (My attempt at gun shy ) Today? Admittedly the Yanks have hit LHP well this year, but you think 40 year old Pettitte out duels up and comer Neise today. I think he does, lol, but +175 for a resilient Muts bunch trying to avoid a sweep against their hated rivals sure is tempting.

[Redscot]

I have today off work (first time in a while). On the road for a 2 hour drive to visit my wife's family. Good luck to all today. I am tailing today. I played the over 10 as i missed the 9.5 by 30 seconds or so for CWS.

Good luck to all.

Always good to see you chime in Triv. Have a good day with the in-laws . Behave yourself or that will be a long 2 hour drive back home Hope all is well with you and yours.

[Love The Action]

absolutely not, I took your comment for what was worth and address you. I thought it was pretty lame on your part to throw a good capper under the bus to defend your stance for your record as if my accountability (meaning winners/losers) wasn't noted on your fourm, regardless. I don't feel the need to PM ya, just to take this one off the record. I'm good with you acknowledging the fact after you read your own post and understanding the misinterpretation, so that just clarifies too me that I didn't take it the wrong way. You act as if I'd posted picks after they won. I posted winners/losser prior to the event! I could maybe understand the one "comment" about starting my own tread if I we're to piss on your plays or clog the tread, but I have done far from that pal. If your concern about my winners/loser for yesterday too, I went 11-3-1 (don't mind show screen shots of my wins or loses for yesterday) just didn't bother posting due to your outlandish comment and slow Internet connect due to weather. Next time don't kill the messenger, especially when hes delivering good mail on time.

Nice day.... I am not sure why you are so offended, but I did not intend my comments with any malice which is why I said to PM me.

All the stuff you wrote above is irrelevant because it has nothing to do with my point. I am sure you are a great capper and I wish you all the continued success in the world.

However, I don't go into your thread and beat my chest about games I won on your losing days, so I would expect the same courtesy from you. This is especially true when you have failed to acknowledge the losing plays you have posted in my thread. I'm not looking to get into an argument, I probably should not have posted my response because I was more annoyed about a few tough beats that I had suffered more than anything else. My comments to you were made with no thought and it was just quick response with no offense intended. I hope you don't harbor ill feelings because I don't. I was simply trying to express that if you are going to come back and acknowledge/brag about the winners you post then you should come back after your losing plays as well and acknowledge them in the same way. That's all.

Good luck buddy.

[whtsox13]

As I mentioned above, over a large sample I think it would even out. I never tracked a large sample, only about 100 play sample and found that for the most part there was no true advantage. You might see a game between Verlander and Shields have a 4 run first five result that went over the 3.5 total, but the full game result stays under the full game total of 7.5 just as often as that same matchup would see the first five stay under 4 and go over 7.5. However, I would be interested in hearing from others that have tracked a very large sample where we could play around with the data. If we can find an edge, then we are doing our job. I will take an edge wherever I can find one....

You are right we'd need a larger sample size, but here is the edge I see, perhaps its a fresh perspective or me just being a rookie... First Five, 2 game parlay, dominant starters against weaker lineups. Too much huh?

[Love The Action]

Pettitte have you (My attempt at gun shy ) Today? Admittedly the Yanks have hit LHP well this year, but you think 40 year old Pettitte out duels up and comer Neise today. I think he does, lol, but +175 for a resilient Muts bunch trying to avoid a sweep against their hated rivals sure is tempting.

I think both guys get hit around but Pettite's numbers are really good and I can't really take the over 9.5 (+100) or (-105) when I could have had over 9 (-105) earlier. The steam got the jump on me before I could finish working on that game and the value is gone. Even so, the more I look at Pettite's numbers the more it is difficult to fade him.

I actually really liked Gee more in that spot against Hughes than Niese versus Pettite because the Yanks kill lefties while the Mets are improving but still average. I just don't know what to make out of Pettite. His numbers are unreal.

[Love The Action]

You are right we'd need a larger sample size, but here is the edge I see, perhaps its a fresh perspective or me just being a rookie... First Five, 2 game parlay, dominant starters against weaker lineups. Too much huh?

I don't see an edge there but if you think otherwise you should backtest your parameters for the last five seasons and see what you come up with. Good luck.

[whtsox13]

You should know better but I'll see what I come up with. Thanks for you persistence and expertise I'd have burned through my entire bankroll without the insight I get from this forum. Tough learning curve, this baseball...

[Redscot]

How the mighty have fallen. Lincecum at home, with a surging Giants team, Kung Fu Panda back to fortify the lineup and Texas is -131 despite the fact that it is doubtful Ogando could get past the 5th and the pen weakand by his absence....Wow.

[Love The Action]

Red....starting to warm up to Bass and the Padres. Have you dug any deeper?

[Trivial]

Safe travels my friend. Hopefully we can make some money together today.

Thank you LTA. I am hoping so. My wife said that if I make some money she will let me go to Vegas in August for a week with "the boys" for my 40th if she gets 50/50 for a dress she's been eyeing. Sounds like a deal (actually I get the better deal by far). I will miss my daughter though.

Let's get this!

[LoneStar]

Nice day.... I am not sure why you are so offended, but I did not intend my comments with any malice which is why I said to PM me.

All the stuff you wrote above is irrelevant because it has nothing to do with my point. I am sure you are a great capper and I wish you all the continued success in the world.

However, I don't go into your thread and beat my chest about games I won on your losing days, so I would expect the same courtesy from you. This is especially true when you have failed to acknowledge the losing plays you have posted in my thread. I'm not looking to get into an argument, I probably should not have posted my response because I was more annoyed about a few tough beats that I had suffered more than anything else. My comments to you were made with no thought and it was just quick response with no offense intended. I hope you don't harbor ill feelings because I don't. I was simply trying to express that if you are going to come back and acknowledge/brag about the winners you post then you should come back after your losing plays as well and acknowledge them in the same way. That's all.

Good luck buddy.

LTA look this is my last reply and I'm done address you. I never came on this tread and beat my chest, so don't make me out to be that guy. I simply posted a light bulb on my picks one time from prior day. So, thats just your illusion to dress-up your actions. Therefore calm down you don't own the internet, forum or thread so people should be free to post where they see fit. I think the comment here "beating my chest" just for posting a light bulb on my picks, is out of context on your part but now I clearly see the reasoning behind in which I initially thought after reading your prior post, now you just clarify more here that you had a bad day, annoyed ect...Just tighten your game up don't hate on the next person pal.

[Love The Action]

How the mighty have fallen. Lincecum at home, with a surging Giants team, Kung Fu Panda back to fortify the lineup and Texas is -131 despite the fact that it is doubtful Ogando could get past the 5th and the pen weakand by his absence....Wow.

I was tempted to play Timmy when the Giants hit +130, but just couldn't do it. Perhaps he is saving himself for later in the season to start throwing that slider again. Either that or I don't think we will see him bounce back as strong. He will always be good, but if he does not throw his slider anymore he will not return to Cy Young great.

[Trivial]

Always good to see you chime in Triv. Have a good day with the in-laws . Behave yourself or that will be a long 2 hour drive back home Hope all is well with you and yours.

Thanks Red. Hope the DR is treating you well. It is going to feel like 37 degrees here today. Hot as heck in Toronto. Hope your family is well in return. I am very fortunate. I love my in laws and they love me back. No fear about a long drive back. Hopefully it will be a 4-0 day.

[Redscot]

Red....starting to warm up to Bass and the Padres. Have you dug any deeper?

What intrigues me is +150 just seems Too high. The Padres have been generating runs the last couple of weeks, Quentin really stretches out that lineup. Also, they are actually just a tick under league average for the season generating runs on the road. Couple that with the Brew Crew's lineup

1. Corey Hart (R) RF
2. Norichika Aoki (L) CF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B
5. Taylor Green (L) 1B
6. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
7. Martin Maldonado (R) C
8. Edwin Maysonet (R) SS
9. Yovani Gallardo (R) P

7,8,9 is cruise city for Bass imo. Brewers have also fared poorly against RHP this season. I think their is a slight edge in SP for Gallardo here, the biggest concern is the Pad's BP is taxed and thinner without Cashner atm.

[Love The Action]

LTA look this is my last reply and I'm done address you. I never came on this tread and beat my chest, so don't make me out to be that guy. I simply posted a light bulb on my picks one time from prior day. So, thats just your illusion to dress-up your actions. Therefore calm down you don't own the internet, forum or thread so people should be free to post where they see fit. I think the comment here "beating my chest" just for posting a light bulb on my picks, is out of context on your part but now I clearly see the reasoning behind in which I initially thought after reading your prior post, now you just clarify more here that you had a bad day, annoyed ect...Just tighten your game up don't hate on the next person pal.

There's no hate buddy so don't misconstrue what I wrote. The light bulb response was just one of many when you came back in to acknowledge a winner. You have done that on multiple occasions....see post 6221 for an example. I can give you a few more if you like that illustrate my point, along with the losing plays that you posted and failed to comment on. I'm not saying you came back in talking disrespectfully because you did not. You are a respectful guy and that is why I treat you with respect. Again, all I'm saying is that you should recognize the plays you lose if you are going to do that to the plays you win. In the past, when you have posted plays in my thread you only came back to acknowledge the winners and never acknowledged your losers. That's all.

None of this matters dude...it's all just internet shenanigans. I personally don't care what you post or where you post. However, my opinion is that you should be accountable for all plays if you are going to post them. Good luck on your future endeavors and I hope you continue to kill the bookies. Those are our enemies not each other.

[Love The Action]

What intrigues me is +150 just seems Too high. The Padres have been generating runs the last couple of weeks, Quentin really stretches out that lineup. Also, they are actually just a tick under league average for the season generating runs on the road. Couple that with the Brew Crew's lineup

1. Corey Hart (R) RF
2. Norichika Aoki (L) CF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B
5. Taylor Green (L) 1B
6. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
7. Martin Maldonado (R) C
8. Edwin Maysonet (R) SS
9. Yovani Gallardo (R) P

7,8,9 is cruise city for Bass imo. Brewers have also fared poorly against RHP this season. I think their is a slight edge in SP for Gallardo here, the biggest concern is the Pad's BP is taxed and thinner without Cashner atm.

Spot on analysis and exactly how I am thinking about this game. When I saw the lineup, I had the same thoughts. As you say, however, SD has a weak bullpen and the loss of Cashner only limits their resources. Very solid value though. Game time decision....

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012

Play #1

Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)

It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)

I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rays/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 4x (Locked)

This went to plus money overnight and I missed that price, but I am jumping on this at -105 as Pinny just started to juice the under from the -102 it was sitting at. Shields is in a great bounce back spot and the advanced numbers for both guys jump off the page at you. My model loves this pitching matchup, we have solid bullpens with the Rays ranked top 10 and Marlins top 14 and the defenses are not below average. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 against righties and I think this sets up nicely for a big under play with most wagers backing the over. Not sure if the roof is open or closed, but the wind is blowing in if the roof is open. Either way, I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into this game in a real "pitchers duel." The ump is Fairchild who is a neutral o/u guy but with a strike rate in the high 62.8% range lifetime. I have this game set at 5.1 and it is going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.

Play #4

Dodgers ML (+101) 1x (Locked)

This is a pure value play so I will not worry about the reverse line movement just like I didn't worry about it yesterday when we see the same line movement favoring Seattle. I have this game set at -114 which is very close to where Pinny opened. The line movement created this value so I will jump on it now before it the more people buy the Dodgers. I'm not sure what Seattle money sees in this game because statistically speaking this is a pretty straightforward play because despite his inconsistency, Billingsley's numbers far outshine Beavan across the board, LA is the much better hitting team with top 10 stats versus righties compared to Seattle's bottom 10 numbers and the bullpens are not even close where again we have a top 10/bottom 10 Dodger advantage. I like the numbers in this game and the line movement created the value, so I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Rockies ML (-119) 1x (Locked)

The best available price for me this morning has been -115 and I regret not taking it a few hours ago. I've been waiting to see if this would drop a bit so I could get it around the -112 range, however, I think -119 is enough value to play considering I have the Rox set at -129. I know Tulo is out but we have a huge starting pitcher advantage with Friedrich who has unfamiliarity on his side over Santana who has poor numbers and has faced this Rox lineup in the past. Colorado will be looking to avoid the sweep and I expect Santana to get shelled in the thin of Colorado. I am rolling with the Rockies for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Tough start already in that big play under. I may have to stop playing unders altogether if this one doesn't hit for me

[brahmabull117]

LOL @ Padres having value


3.60 runs per game on the road, worst road era in the league and a road record of 6-20. Bass is 1-3 on the road himself with a 5.00 era. That team hasn't won a single road series all season so far either


Brewers win by 2-3 runs

[slikec]

I am just curios how much of your bankroll is for you 1unit? For me since i play up to 6 unit plays is 0,5% and i saw you playing 4x plays i would say you probably have set 1unit-1%?

[meader99]

What intrigues me is +150 just seems Too high. The Padres have been generating runs the last couple of weeks, Quentin really stretches out that lineup. Also, they are actually just a tick under league average for the season generating runs on the road. Couple that with the Brew Crew's lineup

1. Corey Hart (R) RF
2. Norichika Aoki (L) CF
3. Ryan Braun (R) LF
4. Aramis Ramirez (R) 3B
5. Taylor Green (L) 1B
6. Rickie Weeks (R) 2B
7. Martin Maldonado (R) C
8. Edwin Maysonet (R) SS
9. Yovani Gallardo (R) P

7,8,9 is cruise city for Bass imo. Brewers have also fared poorly against RHP this season. I think their is a slight edge in SP for Gallardo here, the biggest concern is the Pad's BP is taxed and thinner without Cashner atm.

Don't underestimate Gallardo's stick.