-
Comment -
I like both LA and Detroit quite a bit. I think Verlander is definitely due for a win and Kershaw is due for a dominant performance
I'm not going to play Detroit though. That team's been hemorrhaging money all season. I'll start playing them when they show some signs of life/a hot streakComment -
-
I can get the Mets for +148 right now....so tempting. Running out of time....have to make a decision soon.Comment -
I didn't know LTA was a mormon.Well today is a good day regardless of anything that can happen in the sports world then.
Seems like yesterday that little man showed up to bless you and your wives lives. Birthday parties, 
, oh the memories! 1 year olds are pretty tame though, wait till they hit 5 or so and watch them all turn into crack fiends after eating cake and ice cream , with the sugar rush that ensues.
The beats will turn around bro, been nuts. No way in heck LTA has time to cap all these games and please TWO or more women. GL today all. 
And Happy Birthday to the little guy......Bet he brings the winners.
Comment -
Multiple wives? Oh the horror! Oh the inhumanity!
IMO, this would be a very difficult existence. Name me the guy who has just one wife totally figured out?
LOLLast edited by Catchn_Picks; 06-09-12, 02:09 PM.Comment -
Comment -
Best of luck on your 5 plays today LTA. Speaking of regression to the mean, I like your Det-1 play...Verlander will get back to his average W/L numbers...
Go get 'em!
Question: How/when do you know the doors will be open in Arizona? Is there a temperature point?Comment -
Comment -
really.....
LTA don't start acting like a clown on me pal. I have never previously bump your thread; if so please show me other then this post. If I recall correctly; I have contribute to your forum with my plays and tried starting conversion with you, however you always appears to give me one-liners so I don't bother. I'm not sure what you're speaking about when you say bump winners/losers, when I've posted Thursday going 3-1-1 (which 1 was your pick) and yesterday I posted 4 winners. Prior too that If I recall; I posted 2 big under dogs which one of them was OAK AT+170 and the other one was a loser. So, how am I not contributing? LTA, whats so bazaar is the fact that you'll spend so much time with trolls that don't contribute in defending your picks but lack conversions with people that you may be unfamiliar with that contribute winners. Maybe I should come in here and piss on your picks if you feel so defensives about me posting winners pal.
Comment -
really..... LTA don't start acting like a clown on me pal. I have never previously bump your thread; if so please show me other then this post. If I recall correctly; I have contribute to your forum with my plays and tried starting conversion with you, however you always appears to give me one-liners so I don't bother. I'm not sure what you're speaking about when you say bump winners/losers, when I've posted Thursday going 3-1-1 (which 1 was your pick) and yesterday I posted 4 winners. Prior too that If I recall; I posted 2 big under dogs which one of them was OAK AT+170 and the other one was a loser. So, how am I not contributing? LTA, whats so bazaar is the fact that you'll spend so much time with trolls that don't contribute in defending your picks but lack conversions with people that you may be unfamiliar with that contribute winners. Maybe I should come in here and piss on your picks if you feel so defensives about me posting winners pal.
You took my comment completely the wrong way, but I can see how you might have misinterpreted after I read my post. Not trying to be a dick....if you want to know I said what I said then PM me.Comment -
LTA:
The difference between your record so far this season between your record on ML bets and your totals bets (in particular the under plays) is staggering. With totals being your focused plays in all sports it seems, is there anything you have noticed about your model or the season so far to account for this? It is almost getting weird.
BOL going forward always.Comment -
The amount of unders I have lost in the 8th or 9th inning is staggering.. Whether I am playing a great bullpen or crap bullpen, I hit a run where most of my under plays have been losing late in the game because of poor bullpens and defense. However, that's just variance because eventually we have to hit a run here where the players start doing their job and those plays start hitting at the rate they imply by their 8th or 9th inning score. Those plays have always hit over the last two years so I don't see why they won't now. Its statistically unlikely that I can keep picking the one to three unders on every card that have a one to three run +ev cushion in the 8th or 9th inning and don't cash. When you have such a cushion like i have had in the majority of my unders, that implies a much larger hit rate than we have experienced thus far. Consequently, I expect that rate to increase soon in our favor and a big run to hit like it did earlier in the season when we got up to 18x. The unders were cashing then and they will once more. Good luck.Last edited by Love The Action; 06-10-12, 07:46 AM.Comment -
LTA, Detroit's price has pushed out to +122 in their matchup with the Reds today. Drew Smyly's numbers have been superior to Bailey's thus far this season, and the Tigers are averaging a run more against rightys (Bailey) than leftys. Any thoughts/leans here?Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/9/2012 Recap
2 - 2 - 1 = -0.06x
MLB 2012 Regular Season
145 - 142 - 21 = -3.49x
Typical push on a play I need....onto Sunday. Good luck.Comment -
MLB 2012 Regular Season 6/10/2012
Play #1
Astros/White Sox over (9.5) 1x (Locked)
It's hot and steamy with the wind blowing out to left. Even though Harrell is a good ground ball guy, he pitches to way too much contract for a day like today. On the other side, Humber is one of the biggest fly ball pitchers in baseball and also pitches to too much contact. I expect a high scoring game where both pitchers labor despite the unfamiliarity with the lineups. Everitt is the ump and he does lean a bit under, but on a day like today with these pitchers and lineups, I don't think it will matter much. The White Sox are hitting righties at a great clip right now and I don't see that changing today. I have this game set at 10.8 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #2
Nationals/Red Sox under (9)(-105) 1.25x (Locked)
I expect a better game out of Lester today and Zimmerman is generally pretty dependable. I know the Red Sox lineup is fierce and the Nats are hitting better, but both pitchers have limited experience against these lineups which should help. The wind is blowing in and it's only in the mid-70's so it's not hot like in Chicago. I have this game set at 7.99 and it's going to take a final score of 10 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I rolling with the under for 1.25x. Good luck.Comment -
Looking to finish out the week strong. Hope you had a blast at your son's b-day party yesterday
.
Tempted on the Pad's at +150, Bass has been every bit as good as Gallardo this season and the Pad's have the hotter bats (not something you get to say very often).
Shields at + money is always tempting, or is an under there the play?
Definitely like the under in Balty at first glance, their bats have been the poorest in MLB over last couple of weeks....maybe a Phils -1 RL is the better play.
Cubs at +123.....could I really put myself through that punishment.....Liriano has thrown 2 good games in a row and getting respect from the books....is he really "fixed".
Lots of decisions to make..............
Comment -
CWS game juicing up hard right now. Could be 10 by gametime. Get 9.5 while you can.Comment -
Play #3
Rays/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 4x (Locked)
This went to plus money overnight and I missed that price, but I am jumping on this at -105 as Pinny just started to juice the under from the -102 it was sitting at. Shields is in a great bounce back spot and the advanced numbers for both guys jump off the page at you. My model loves this pitching matchup, we have solid bullpens with the Rays ranked top 10 and Marlins top 14 and the defenses are not below average. Both teams are ranked in the bottom 10 against righties and I think this sets up nicely for a big under play with most wagers backing the over. Not sure if the roof is open or closed, but the wind is blowing in if the roof is open. Either way, I expect both pitchers to pitch deep into this game in a real "pitchers duel." The ump is Fairchild who is a neutral o/u guy but with a strike rate in the high 62.8% range lifetime. I have this game set at 5.1 and it is going to take a final score of 8 to beat us. I think we stay under that number and I am rolling with the under for 4x. Good luck.Comment -
Thanks. Well, as you can see I went big on the Rays/Marlins under so that's my answer to your question about that game.Looking to finish out the week strong. Hope you had a blast at your son's b-day party yesterday.
Tempted on the Pad's at +150, Bass has been every bit as good as Gallardo this season and the Pad's have the hotter bats (not something you get to say very often).
Shields at + money is always tempting, or is an under there the play?
Definitely like the under in Balty at first glance, their bats have been the poorest in MLB over last couple of weeks....maybe a Phils -1 RL is the better play.
Cubs at +123.....could I really put myself through that punishment.....Liriano has thrown 2 good games in a row and getting respect from the books....is he really "fixed".
Lots of decisions to make..............
Be careful about the Balty under as the conditions are ripe for an over with really hot 97 degree weather and a wind blowing out at 10 mph. Very similar to the conditions in the White Sox over I played, although the pitchers in this game are much, much better. Hammel has put up great numbers so far, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? I like Philly to win that one, but I missed the best price in the -130's and I can't play it at the -140's so I will probably have to pass unless it drops back down.
I think that Bass has not been as sharp as late. He burned me when I backed him on the under in his last last start and that makes three bad starts in a row where he has given up at least 4 runs, whereas Gallardo has been pitching much better over the last month until his last start against the Cubs. With that said, however, Bass has never faced the Brewers before and has unfamiliarity working for him while Gallardo has been hit hard by that SD lineup that you mentioned is heating up. Based on the numbers, there is value on SD. I have them set at +137 but just not sure if I can trust Bass or SD right now. That reminds me of the Yankees/Mets game yesterday where there was a ton of value on Gee. I made the right decision and passed and I tend to think that might be the right decision again. We'll see.....
Cubs price just got better....up to +130's but as you mentioned I think we need to see more out of Liriano before we can back or fade him. Plus, the Cubs are the Cubs and if you don't get a complete game from the starting pitcher you always have to worry.
Anyway, good luck on all your plays my friend. Gotta get back to the card.
Comment -
Is it just me or is Hammel still not getting respect. +135 at home is ludicrous! Am I missing something? I know Lee is a stud but Hammel is really a different pitcher this year imoComment -
He's got great advanced numbers, but how long until he regresses to his career averages? He has an unsustainable LOB% of 80.1% which is way higher than his lifetime 69%. Likewise, his strikeout numbers are huge compared to his lifetime numbers with a current K% over 20% and a lifetime around 16%. His SwStr% is at 9.9% and his lifetime is 7.9%. Something has to give. I suspect he is benefiting from the AL's unfamiliarity with him and once he goes around the league a few times the pitchers will catch up.Comment -
Good luck to LTA and all on the big under.
A win here and we will make up for a lot of crappy late inning meltdowns!
Comment -
Pissed I didn't beat the steam on the Yankee over. That is a solid looking play at 9 -115 or better. Right now it's at 9.5 and can't play it that number. Hopefully it comes back down a bit so I may consider it again.Comment -
5D still has O 9 -125 on reduced bet LTA...still like it?
Scratch that...went to play a half a unit and it is gone!
*********
But I wonder if there is value at NYY -1 with the Yanks being a perennial left handed hitting team and NYM struggling versus lefties so far this year?Last edited by Catchn_Picks; 06-10-12, 09:56 AM.Comment -
Play #4
Dodgers ML (+101) 1x (Locked)
This is a pure value play so I will not worry about the reverse line movement just like I didn't worry about it yesterday when we see the same line movement favoring Seattle. I have this game set at -114 which is very close to where Pinny opened. The line movement created this value so I will jump on it now before it the more people buy the Dodgers. I'm not sure what Seattle money sees in this game because statistically speaking this is a pretty straightforward play because despite his inconsistency, Billingsley's numbers far outshine Beavan across the board, LA is the much better hitting team with top 10 stats versus righties compared to Seattle's bottom 10 numbers and the bullpens are not even close where again we have a top 10/bottom 10 Dodger advantage. I like the numbers in this game and the line movement created the value, so I am rolling with the Dodgers for 1x. Good luck.Comment
