LTA's MLB Plays

**No coincidences** · 05-28-12, 11:28 AM

Cards +128 now and climbing.

Edit: hit the ceiling and now dropped back a little.

**slikec** · 05-28-12, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

Lta i can get Seattle Rl at +115 and ml at +220 , my local is always moving lines 20 to 30 cents on favorites ,teams like Texas, and NY . Im thinking about just taking the oppisite of every line he moves. Do you believe this will be profitable ? Thank you for your plays and write ups

Seriously he is doing that? Start making sure bets lol this is sick value

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 12:12 PM

Originally posted by tonyp0387

Lta i can get Seattle Rl at +115 and ml at +220 , my local is always moving lines 20 to 30 cents on favorites ,teams like Texas, and NY . Im thinking about just taking the oppisite of every line he moves. Do you believe this will be profitable ? Thank you for your plays and write ups

Just compare those lines to pinny. If your local is 30 cents off the pinny price then he is a stupid local and deserves for you to put him out of business. Good luck and happy memorial day!

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by hey buddy

LTA, just to let you know Ruiz is out of the lineup today. Victorino batting clean-up.

That's a risk you take playing games before lineup are released but Philly has enough to win. GL

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

Lta, great looking card, happy memorial day, and lets pound
the books today.

Same to you buddy

**Catchn_Picks** · 05-28-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Happy Memorial Day to all and please remember the reason we honor this holiday is to honor the brave men and women of U.S. Armed Forces. The true heros....

Thank you LTA for remembering things that make a baseball game pale into insignificance.

BOL to all. Have a happy and healthy holiday.

Love to all, especially the vets who so selfishly walked into harms way so we can enjoy a beer, hot dog and an American baseball game.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Cards +128 now and climbing.

Edit: hit the ceiling and now dropped back a little.

That's a great number on the cardinals.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by Catchn_Picks

Thank you LTA for remembering things that make a baseball game pale into insignificance.

BOL to all. Have a happy and healthy holiday.

Love to all, especially the vets who so selfishly walked into harms way so we can enjoy a beer, hot dog and an American baseball game.

That's it buddy....we will never forget

**Squirrel Kokomo** · 05-28-12, 12:51 PM

whitesox/rays under getting hammered. nice.

**Madison** · 05-28-12, 01:16 PM

TOUGH bottom of the 2nd for the unders. Clearly blown tipped 3rd strike and appeal to 1st base calls ball hits the ground. Add another error and 3 essentially unearned runs. Clearly wrong call. Not even close.

Sorry Sox/Det

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 01:39 PM

Originally posted by Squirrel Kokomo

whitesox/rays under getting hammered. nice.

So did our Tigers/BoSox under, and now we must pray. Thankfully, I can pray with a vodka rocks in my hand as I enjoy the sun and water with my family thanks to those who made it possible on this Memorial Day.

**Clutch423** · 05-28-12, 02:37 PM

Cheers LTA, from a former member of our Armed Forces. Semper Fi!

How cool of you to remember why we're both drinking today. I raise my drink to fallen comrades and those of us that are still alive to enjoy today. Enjoy yourself my friend and THANKS more than you can imagine. It never gets old to hear the civilian population express their genuine appreciation and I would expect nothing less from you. Thanks for so much, but mostly for just being a solid dude

**dredmahawkus** · 05-28-12, 03:13 PM

red sox just gave up a 2 run HR to lose that under with 2 outs and 2 strikes. incredible!

**nrok2118** · 05-28-12, 03:14 PM

Another fukked up loss on the Boston Under

**Redscot** · 05-28-12, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by dredmahawkus

red sox just gave up a 2 run HR to lose that under with 2 outs and 2 strikes. incredible!

Yup, and they had tacked one on themselves with 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th. Brutal.

**Madison** · 05-28-12, 03:20 PM

3rd strike wasn't tipped and didn't hit the ground so that made 2 wrong calls on the same play.

**freshguy222** · 05-28-12, 03:27 PM

the under was a bad call from the beginning though, you cannot argue with that. 6 runs thru first five

**Redscot** · 05-28-12, 03:27 PM

Only one thing to do after a beat like that. Enjoy another cool beverage of your choice and check out Fausto Carmona's base running from last year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGCpWd76nsI

**hey buddy** · 05-28-12, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

That's a risk you take playing games before lineup are released but Philly has enough to win. GL

Worked out for you. Best of luck with the rest of the card.

**Pride** · 05-28-12, 04:40 PM

Brutal call on Dbacks

**hey buddy** · 05-28-12, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Pride

Brutal call on Dbacks

They are only playing 2 innings today?

**XFranchise** · 05-28-12, 05:00 PM

Nice play on the royals! At least we have a winner under the belt! I was one of the many suckers on the Cubs under, plus I tailed your Dbacks.. Oh I forgot about Tampa also! gJ. Been following you a couple weeks, just reset my password though. What do you think on the under 10.5 for the rangers mariners? 6 games this season and all U8.5

**Pride** · 05-28-12, 05:00 PM

Yes

**absolutkaos** · 05-28-12, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

the under was a bad call from the beginning though, you cannot argue with that. 6 runs thru first five

Originally posted by Pride

Brutal call on Dbacks

**fitguy67** · 05-28-12, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Got a question for ya LTA. You have consciously implemented the -1 R/L more into your capping this season, thus far with good results, in an attempt to open up the card more and create value on high chalk favorites. Wouldn't a logical extension of this be an attempt to utilize the +1 R/L in certain situations, ie. low totals where you anticipate a pitchers duel. Curious to here your thoughts on this, and why, perhaps there is a distinction in the value created by the -1 RL as compared to the +1 RL.

P.S. if any one else has thoughts on this matter feel free to chime in.

Red, funny you should mention that, cuz just today the same lightbulb went off for me, ending up in placing SEA+1 vs. TEX...and i discovered that any formula/sheet you use to generate RYO (roll your own) +1bets work...the key is to simply switch the roles of ML and RL in the formula...cuz now the basic idea is for the RL to finance the ML on the one-run losses....furthermore...i discovered the same "2 points and up" sevice-fee for taking the OTS (off the shelf) play from the book (in my case, Pinny...and if they're doing it there, there doing it everywhere). A word to the wised-up is sufficient.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by freshguy222

the under was a bad call from the beginning though, you cannot argue with that. 6 runs thru first five

Sorry bud, but that was my best play today. I bought it at 9.5 (-120) and 9 (+110). It closed at 9 (-115) at Pinny. A truly great play

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by Pride

Brutal call on Dbacks

Win or lose it was a bad play because I did not beat the closing price on the -1RL. It has nothing to do with the results on the field.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Only one thing to do after a beat like that. Enjoy another cool beverage of your choice and check out Fausto Carmona's base running from last year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGCpWd76nsI

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 06:11 PM

Originally posted by Clutch423

Cheers LTA, from a former member of our Armed Forces. Semper Fi!

How cool of you to remember why we're both drinking today. I raise my drink to fallen comrades and those of us that are still alive to enjoy today. Enjoy yourself my friend and THANKS more than you can imagine. It never gets old to hear the civilian population express their genuine appreciation and I would expect nothing less from you. Thanks for so much, but mostly for just being a solid dude

You da man Clutch....thanks!

**Les_Nuts** · 05-28-12, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Only one thing to do after a beat like that. Enjoy another cool beverage of your choice and check out Fausto Carmona's base running from last year.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGCpWd76nsI

Ha this is excellent, you should link it after every bad beat. Fantastic song choice by the uploader

**Madison** · 05-28-12, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Sorry bud, but that was my best play today. I bought it at 9.5 (-120) and 9 (+110). It closed at 9 (-115) at Pinny. A truly great play

That was a solid play LTA. Destiny was not your friend. Tough beat. I was leaning your way and got lucky when it went to 9 and juice and I passed.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 09:09 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/28/2012 Recap

4 - 3 = -0.18x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

120 - 112 - 15 = +2.83x

The Boston under loss hurt taking us from a 5-2 +4x day to a 4-3 juice losing day. Such is life throughout a seven month season. Back to the grind. Good luck on Tuesday.

**Love The Action** · 05-28-12, 09:37 PM

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Orioles ML (+136) 3x (Locked)

I am going to play this aggressively because we are getting a ton of value based on the public perception that Romero is an elite pitcher and Arrieta is a red-headed stepchild. However, we know that Arrieta is actually pitching much better than Romero as evidenced by the advanced stats. Consequently, even though the public looks to see that Romero has the better ERA and a 5-1 w/l record, the sharp money knows that Arrieta is the play in this game because of hits better WAR by .3, the better K% by 2% and the better tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA by about 1 point. When you consider that Baltimore is killing lefties right now ranking in the top 5 of most significant statistical categories, while Toronto is struggling against righties in the bottom 10 in the same categories and it becomes clear why I am playing this so aggressively. I have this game at +116 which gives us a ton of value at this number and I suspect we see a close around +120. As we hit this mid part of the season, it's time to get more aggressive and I love the value on this play. I am rolling with the Orioles for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Devil Rays -1RL (-108) 1.5x (Locked)

I love that TB is coming off a low scoring game against Sale. Now it's time for a little Humber and I expect their top 10 offense to be ready. Bottom line is that there is really no comparison between Shields and Humber and I expect a rather easy victory for TB tomorrow. I am rolling with the Devil Rays on the -1RL for 1.5x. Good luck.

**ebbearsfb1** · 05-28-12, 09:54 PM

biggest side play of the year so far correct?

**BeardedTaco** · 05-28-12, 10:00 PM

FWIW one of the best free posters I know also has Bal +135. This line should drop.