LTA's MLB Plays

[Dexter]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/23/2012 Recap

7 - 0 = +7.69

MLB 2012 Regular Season

107 - 98 - 14 = +6.5x

We finally have a break through day, but it's always about business. We move onto Thursday. Good luck.

sick day LTA

[absolutkaos]

looks like a profitable night overall...I got on the Jays/Rangers O along with your plays and if NYY holds on it looks to be a 5-3-1 overall....would have been nicer but damn STL couldn't close it out in the bottom of 9 to preserve the U and of course PHI goes for 2 in the 10th to screw us...thanks for the plays!

[pacocn]

Lta, nice day wish i had tailed that cubs under
I backed out with the possibility of rain.

[SlickRick1382]

despite some tough luck another positive day. Thanks for sacrificinng value in the name of getting us the plays before heading out. Much appreciated ...

[mikeyplata]

i took your tampa & detroit picks alongside my anaheim & mia/sf +7.5 to my local and cashed. thanks LTA

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/25/2012 Recap

5 - 3 - 1 = +2.97x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

113 - 103 - 15 = +8.22x

We missed out on a huge night when the cardinals game hit 8 runs in the 10th inning and the Mets under pushed....a profitable day nonetheless and we move onto Saturday. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/26/2012

Play #1

Royals/Orioles under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Chen has unfamiliarity and is facing a lineup that struggles agaibst lefties. I have laid off backing my boy Paulino since his return and he has been dominate. I will back him here and trust that he will have three great starts in a row. The ump is neutral and weather should not be an issue. I have this game set at 6.98 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cardinals -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Huge pitching advantage with Garcia over Kendrick and despite the results of this series, the cardinals are the better hitting team with the better bullpen. They need this win and I have the red birds set at -178 on the ML and it's currently at -161. I will risk the push and roll with the cardinals at the cheaper price on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

[brucethebear]

Agreed. I was on the under 7.5.
At 3-3 going into extra innings, this game ends on 7 maybe 90% of the time.
Stupid cards should have closed it out in the 9th.

Very nice call on the Rays mate. Any thoughts on the Rays tomorrow at +117 (Price)?

[guil0000]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/26/2012

Play #2

Cardinals -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Huge pitching advantage with Garcia over Kendrick and despite the results of this series, the cardinals are the better hitting team with the better bullpen. They need this win and I have the red birds set at -178 on the ML and it's currently at -161. I will risk the push and roll with the cardinals at the cheaper price on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

I'm not a big fan of high favs but this one is an exception. I kept coming back to it when I was capping and was glad to see you on it. As you mentionned they have the advantage in every category and after yesterday's lost they should be ready to knock around Kendrick.

Any thoughts on the Indians and the White Sox? I keep coming back to the Indians despite the pitching advantage for the sox. Both teams know the opposing pitcher pretty well and Lowe's ability to get ground balls should, in theory, work well at cellular field. GL as always. Keep the profits coming

[Redscot]

Onwards and upwards LTA, "Back in black" and not looking back!

I like the Cards to put it on Kendrick as well today. While Paulino having faced the Orioles recently gives me slight concern, they are a free swinging lineup who K a lot and don't draw many walks, which fits nicely for Paulino's skill set.

Think Detroit gets it going? If/when they do get hot, gotta figure there will be some good value for a stretch. Much the same as I see the Angels atm. Haren closed -117 the other day and then yesterday -118 against "leave it to" Beavan! I am not in the business of fading King Felix but +136 sure is tempting.

What do you think of a Reds -1 R/L. Also think I like the Cubs today at + $ .

Looking forward to the rest of your card, and hope you have a great day

Edit: Forgot about S.F.. +$ and a pitching discrepancy in their favor.....hmmm

[Redscot]

Angels were at + 136 when I looked at them early this morning, now down to +122. Think the value went pfffft on that one.

[Madison]

Went out last night so gotta work on the card fast and furious. No writeups but will discuss plays later if you like. Good luck today.

Recipe for sucess? Nice work LTA!

[BeardedTaco]

Ever feel like you are playing too many totals? I think it's important to have a lot of confidence in your model but based on the numbers I've tallied your sides do much better market wise then your totals (and most likely in units won as well).

[absolutkaos]

I'm thinking of getting on the Jays/Rangers U today. I know they put up a combined 17 yesterday, but after big games like that it seems that teams go low totals in the next one. Line is 10.5 right now, and 11 runs to beat us may be a lot. I could see this one ending 5-3, 5-4 or something like that. Thoughts?

[taxe91]

I'm thinking of getting on the Jays/Rangers U today. I know they put up a combined 17 yesterday, but after big games like that it seems that teams go low totals in the next one. Line is 10.5 right now, and 11 runs to beat us may be a lot. I could see this one ending 5-3, 5-4 or something like that. Thoughts?

- texas and toronto are both top 5 offenses in the major leagues.
- henderson alvarez is a contact pitcher with a horrible K%, and we all know what can happen to balls put in play at arlington.
- colby lewis is a flyball pitcher so bautista and encarnacion could do home run damage.

10.5 sounds like a fair line to me

[Love The Action]

Onwards and upwards LTA, "Back in black" and not looking back!

I like the Cards to put it on Kendrick as well today. While Paulino having faced the Orioles recently gives me slight concern, they are a free swinging lineup who K a lot and don't draw many walks, which fits nicely for Paulino's skill set.

Think Detroit gets it going? If/when they do get hot, gotta figure there will be some good value for a stretch. Much the same as I see the Angels atm. Haren closed -117 the other day and then yesterday -118 against "leave it to" Beavan! I am not in the business of fading King Felix but +136 sure is tempting.

What do you think of a Reds -1 R/L. Also think I like the Cubs today at + $ .

Looking forward to the rest of your card, and hope you have a great day

Edit: Forgot about S.F.. +$ and a pitching discrepancy in their favor.....hmmm

Been busy cooking breakfast and hanging with the fam....just put the little man down and checked the board. Missed way too much value on my leans to play them now. Here are a few of my leans. If they come back to reasonable numbers, I may play them later. I have some more work to do and a short window to get it done. Otherwise, I will pass and just stick with the two plays for today.

Astros +130 ish. I have them set at +116 and it's at +112 now. Have to pass at that number.

Astros/Dodgers under 7 (might play later depending on price)

Rockies/Reds over (9) (this is up to 9.5) keep an eye on this one, I can get -130 now at -9 but that's too much.

I like the over in Tor/Tex, but Alvarez never faced Tex before. Still, wind tunnel is in effect and he pitches to too much contact. Over 10 at -110 would be ok, but I don't play 10.5 overs.

I would play the under in Milw/AZ but the roof is open and I will rarely play an under with the roof open.

Still have some work to do on Nats/Braves, Pads/Mets, Giants/Marlins (missed value on MBaum), LAA/Seattle, Det/Minny, etc. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Ever feel like you are playing too many totals? I think it's important to have a lot of confidence in your model but based on the numbers I've tallied your sides do much better market wise then your totals (and most likely in units won as well).

No, it's all cyclical. This is an adjustment period for totals in MLB, especially if you are more of an under player like myself. The books need to adjust as well. Take today for example, most totals have seen steam on the over from the opener. Both the books algorythms and my model have been overvaluing unders just a tad and are just beginning to catch up with the recent surge in scoring (much of which is due to bullpen variance).

Earlier in the season when I was at or around +15x and before the negative variance of the previous three weeks, I was doing quite well on totals (both in terms of line value compared to the closer and units won), the majority of which were under plays. Since that time, baseball has gone through an adjustment period for scoring and the advanced statistical numbers are just catching up, which means my model is just catching up. This usually happens about 4 times per season when scoring adjusts itself.

Over the long term, my totals plays are solid money makers. I would say a hot streak with totals is coming fairly soon both in terms of line value and units won. I can't be concerned with a few bad weeks of totals plays because I know long term my model will be +EV.

[Derty D]

Hello LTA,

How about TOR/TEX over 10(-115)? At 5Dimes Reduced Baseball now...

[Derty D]

I appreciate all your time and effort for all of us who read you daily. Thank you. More importantly I'm happy to see that you are balanced in that you make time with your family. My brother is dying of cancer and despite my inability to be with him 24/7, that time with him is more precious than anything I do for profits on betting. I wish you all the THE BEST!
~Derty D~

[Kurtz]

Are bookmakers shading MLB totals way too low as hitters adjust? 7 games on the betting board catching major over steam already today.

Todd Fuhrman

@ToddFuhrman

[Love The Action]

Looks like all of the value is gone and not coming back on Baumgarner, Norris and Price. I leaned to Giants, Stros and TB but will pass now.

[BeardedTaco]

On all 3 at +128, +136, +115

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/26/2012

Play #1

Royals/Orioles under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Chen has unfamiliarity and is facing a lineup that struggles agaibst lefties. I have laid off backing my boy Paulino since his return and he has been dominate. I will back him here and trust that he will have three great starts in a row. The ump is neutral and weather should not be an issue. I have this game set at 6.98 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cardinals -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Huge pitching advantage with Garcia over Kendrick and despite the results of this series, the cardinals are the better hitting team with the better bullpen. They need this win and I have the red birds set at -178 on the ML and it's currently at -161. I will risk the push and roll with the cardinals at the cheaper price on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs ML (+113) 1x (Locked)

This play has lost a few cents of value but I think this is a nice play at an price over the +105 range. Despite how bad the Cubs are, the Pirates are not statistically that much better. When you consider that Maholm has a pretty significant advantage over Corriea in tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (Maholm is generally 1 point better) and even though neither is a big strike out guy, Maholm misses more bats and induces more ground balls than Correia. As you know, one "angle" I like to look for is to back a team that just got shutout the night before and the Cubs are coming off that 1-0 pitcher's dual. I have the Cubs set at +104 and I think they break the losing streak today. I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

On all 3 at +128, +136, +115

Great prices. Would have played them last night if I was around, so we'll see. Good luck, I hope you cash

[SlickRick1382]

Looks like all of the value is gone and not coming back on Baumgarner, Norris and Price. I leaned to Giants, Stros and TB but will pass now.

Glad I made the right call when I thought Price at +115 was of good value last night. Didn't see any plays last night so jumped on it before it was too late....

Enjoy the Memorial Day Weekend with the family bud ....

[pacocn]

Lta, looks like a nice card, have a great memorial
weekend

[G-manFan]

Everyone have a great weekend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[daddyv]

Looks like all of the value is gone and not coming back on Baumgarner, Norris and Price. I leaned to Giants, Stros and TB but will pass now.

im on dodgers so atleast i got the best value on that at -115 but yeh i jumped on TB +115 last night so hoping ur lean cashes. thanks for all the work n GL

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/26/2012

Play #1

Royals/Orioles under (8)(+105) 1x (Locked)

Chen has unfamiliarity and is facing a lineup that struggles agaibst lefties. I have laid off backing my boy Paulino since his return and he has been dominate. I will back him here and trust that he will have three great starts in a row. The ump is neutral and weather should not be an issue. I have this game set at 6.98 and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Cardinals -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Huge pitching advantage with Garcia over Kendrick and despite the results of this series, the cardinals are the better hitting team with the better bullpen. They need this win and I have the red birds set at -178 on the ML and it's currently at -161. I will risk the push and roll with the cardinals at the cheaper price on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Cubs ML (+113) 1x (Locked)

This play has lost a few cents of value but I think this is a nice play at an price over the +105 range. Despite how bad the Cubs are, the Pirates are not statistically that much better. When you consider that Maholm has a pretty significant advantage over Corriea in tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA (Maholm is generally 1 point better) and even though neither is a big strike out guy, Maholm misses more bats and induces more ground balls than Correia. As you know, one "angle" I like to look for is to back a team that just got shutout the night before and the Cubs are coming off that 1-0 pitcher's dual. I have the Cubs set at +104 and I think they break the losing streak today. I am rolling with the Cubs for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Rockies/Reds over (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of such juicy totals and would rather have a -120 on an under, but I love this over despite the fact that Guthrie is better away from Colorado. The ump leans over and the weather is blowing out slightly to left. I have this game set at 10.6 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Redscot]

Play #4

Rockies/Reds over (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of such juicy totals and would rather have a -120 on an under, but I love this over despite the fact that Guthrie is better away from Colorado. The ump leans over and the weather is blowing out slightly to left. I have this game set at 10.6 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Good luck on this one bud. Sweating out the Royals atm, would be the only under of 8 early games to hit .....

[absolutkaos]

nice close out by the Royals....nice to get one under the belt...GL with the rest of the games tonight all!

[Redscot]

That under should come with bonus points the way the scoring is going today. Nice hit home slice .

[slikec]

Play #4

Rockies/Reds over (9)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Not a fan of such juicy totals and would rather have a -120 on an under, but I love this over despite the fact that Guthrie is better away from Colorado. The ump leans over and the weather is blowing out slightly to left. I have this game set at 10.6 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play posted same time as betting closed

[Kurtz]

Until today's extra inning one run win, the last 15 Ranger wins had been by two or more runs.

[bigant78]

here comes dolis for the cubs. They need to send him back to triple B lol