LTA's MLB Plays

[Love The Action]

here comes dolis for the cubs. They need to send him back to triple B lol

Dolis is garbage....he has singlehandedly lost us like 5x or 6x this season.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/26/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.11x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

115 - 105 - 15 = +8.11x

Good luck on Sunday.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/27/2012

Play #1

Padres ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

[Laissez Faire]

was leaning towards mets tomorrow actually...with dickey vs. a team that doesn't hit at all...why do you like padres?

[Gamble32jn]

i was liking mets and Over

[Laissez Faire]

I don't think volquez will give up 4 runs in the 1st tomorrow...and I doubt the closer gives up 5 in the 8th haha...but I still think the mets get it done again (maybe not in as large of a fashion)

being new to baseball betting, and respecting your opinion LTA, I just want to know what I'm missing on this one...???

[Derty D]

At +130, there must be value and LTA believes after crunching his numbers that over the long haul, taking SD+130 in this situation is a solid play.

[Derty D]

Halladay+105? STL has hit a skid losing 11 of 16, so getting Halladay plus money vs a team in flux, is a good buy. LTA, any thoughts?

[Laissez Faire]

just saw that Mark Kotsay and Will Venable have all three of the HRs off of Dickey...and have three RBIs each off of him

definitely an interesting notion...

[Love The Action]

was leaning towards mets tomorrow actually...with dickey vs. a team that doesn't hit at all...why do you like padres?

i was liking mets and Over

I don't think volquez will give up 4 runs in the 1st tomorrow...and I doubt the closer gives up 5 in the 8th haha...but I still think the mets get it done again (maybe not in as large of a fashion)

being new to baseball betting, and respecting your opinion LTA, I just want to know what I'm missing on this one...???

You guys should roll with the Mets if you like the Mets. For me, I will roll with the value on the on the Pads who have fared well against Dickey and his knuckleball in the past. With possible rain, that will not help. On the other side, Volques has dominated this Mets lineup and overall both Volquez and Dickey have similar numbers. The Mets should not be more than +119 but we're getting +130. Too much value to pass up. GL

[Love The Action]

Halladay+105? STL has hit a skid losing 11 of 16, so getting Halladay plus money vs a team in flux, is a good buy. LTA, any thoughts?

Like the under better, but the wind is blowing out hard or is supposed to at least. I'll wait for that total to go up a bit....GL

[Laissez Faire]

two plays I contemplating for tomorrow... orioles ML & braves/nats under 6.5

if you have any thoughts LTA...would love to hear

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/27/2012

Play #1

Padres ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

Play #2

Reds -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Nationals/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for writeups. Reds should roll tomorrow and I have the Braves game set at 5 even. If that one goes up to 7, I will add another unit. Good luck.

[Laissez Faire]

You guys should roll with the Mets if you like the Mets. For me, I will roll with the value on the on the Pads who have fared well against Dickey and his knuckleball in the past. With possible rain, that will not help. On the other side, Volques has dominated this Mets lineup and overall both Volquez and Dickey have similar numbers. The Mets should not be more than +119 but we're getting +130. Too much value to pass up. GL

thank you for explaining your reasoning LTA...upon doing a little more reasearch, I found that Dickey doesn't fare so well against Padres....gonna sit that one out I think but taking the play with the value is the most logical...GL and thank you for your insight

[Laissez Faire]

Play #2

Reds -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Nationals/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Too tired for writeups. Reds should roll tomorrow and I have the Braves game set at 5 even. If that one goes up to 7, I will add another unit. Good luck.

was looking at both of these...glad we're on same side...the reds should be solid tomorrow

[Love The Action]

Keep an eye on the Boston/TB over....that will be a play if it drops down in price at a bit 10 or goes to 9.5...

[Laissez Faire]

i can get over 10 at -110 at 5dimes...what are you seeing it as? -115?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/27/2012

Play #1

Padres ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

As I type this Sunday morning, the price is up to +135 which really does not surprise me considering the results of this series so far. However, I do expect some sharp money on SD at some point. I have this game set at +119 because Dickey really does not have much of an edge over Volquez. When you consider that SD is familiar with Dickey's knuckleball, the wind is blowing in which hurts the knuckleball's movement and it might rain which also hurts the movement of Dickey's primary pitch and Volquez starts to look a lot better. It's like russian roulette when backing teams like the Pads, Cubs, etc., but when the value is there I will take it and I am rolling with the Pads for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

This is a case of pitchers going in opposite directions. Latos has been on fire and Moyer has been struggling mightily. It's never a bad idea to back the Reds when the face weak lefties considering they hit lefties at a top 10 in the league clip. I have the Reds set at -179 on the ML and they are currently in the -160's. I will reduce the juice, risk the push and play Cincy on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nationals/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Love this play and will probably add to it down the road. I have this game set at 5 even giving us quite a bit of value, especially if we see this go up to 7. It's starting to drop in price so that is doubtful. Both pitcher's have had a great start and rank in the top of WAR with scores in the 1.5 range this early in the season. Danley is the ump and a pretty neutral guy considering his slightly above average strike rate and his recent under lean. The wind is blowing directly in pretty strong at 14 mph which helps a fly ball guy like Beachy. I expect a classic low scoring Sunday night game and I am rolling with the under for 1x now and probably more down the line. Good luck.

Play #4

Devils Rays/Red Sox over (10) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get better than -110 but this one is starting to hit -115 at some books including Pinny so I will take this while I can. I would not be surprised to see the market take it down though, even to 9.5. However, I can't risk getting a worse price or number. I have this game set at 11.1 and if you remember a few weaks ago we had the over in the matchup at 8 in TB and it ended right at that number with a push. Now, despite that push, the books are opening at 10. Are they showing their hand in this one or reacting to the market. Well, my model agrees that the over is the play today and most uninformed "bettors" love Hellickson's conventional numbers and will back the under while us more informed "investors" know that Hellickson is primed to get blown up especially against a top 5 offense and one he has just seen. Bucholz is even worse and there's no reason TB's top 10 offense can't get to him. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

With Hudson coming off the DL, that is another over I like today. But the roof is closed in AZ so that is a no play now. If the roof was open, I would be on that over for sure.

[Derty D]

Best of luck on all four of your plays LTA. Thanks for your reply on my PHL+105 wager...

[Love The Action]

Best of luck on all four of your plays LTA. Thanks for your reply on my PHL+105 wager...

Good luck in whatever you choose. I am probably going to pass on that game all the way around.

[Vasco]

LTA, like the early plays. Do you lean under on Garza vs Bedard? Both offenses have been embarrassing themselves this series. Garza has been pretty solid except for 2 poor starts. Same can be said for Bedard. I see over 6.5 at -120, maybe this will go to 7?

[Redscot]

LTA, like the early plays. Do you lean under on Garza vs Bedard? Both offenses have been embarrassing themselves this series. Garza has been pretty solid except for 2 poor starts. Same can be said for Bedard. I see over 6.5 at -120, maybe this will go to 7?

Just hit 7 on most boards, surprised at that.

[Love The Action]

Just hit 7 on most boards, surprised at that.

I know...I can get -110 at 7. It's making it very hard not to pull the trigger, but neither starter has been in very good form over their last two starts and wind is blowing out. Plus, we all know that the Cubs bullpen is where turds go to get flushed. Still, these two offenses are really bad. I think 7 is a great number, but....

[BennyFang]

I know...I can get -110 at 7. It's making it very hard not to pull the trigger, but neither starter has been in very good form over their last two starts and wind is blowing out. Plus, we all know that the Cubs bullpen is where turds go to get flushed. Still, these two offenses are really bad. I think 7 is a great number, but....

Maybe all Cub & Cub under plays from here out should be FF.

[Dexter]

You guys should roll with the Mets if you like the Mets. For me, I will roll with the value on the on the Pads who have fared well against Dickey and his knuckleball in the past. With possible rain, that will not help. On the other side, Volques has dominated this Mets lineup and overall both Volquez and Dickey have similar numbers. The Mets should not be more than +119 but we're getting +130. Too much value to pass up. GL

going to the game....it will not rain much if at all. i made a homer bet on the mets.

[pacocn]

Lta got Padres at +136 on 5 dimes,
I think we are getting at least 15 cents
of value. Doesn't look like rain
but we will have a light cross wind that may
not help Dickey.

[No coincidences]

Mets just got hammered.

[pacocn]

Mets just got hammered.

may have to add another unit on the Pads.

[pacocn]

Padres at +140 now.

[No coincidences]

may have to add another unit on the Pads.

Hard to believe that Dickey is -150 vs. anyone. Just crazy.

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Good Luck today LTA! Way to bounce back from that tough stretch.

[Love The Action]

This over steam going on in the Mets/Pads, Cubs/Pit, SF/Mia and Phi/Stl is insane. It just keeps going higher and higher....

[NYSportsGuy210]

I Love the Cubs +101 today. Losing the first two to Pittsburgh in close games they should blow out the Pirates today with Garza on the hill.

Also like the OVER 9.5 in the Tigers-Twins games.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/27/2012

Play #1

Padres ML (+130) 1x (Locked)

As I type this Sunday morning, the price is up to +135 which really does not surprise me considering the results of this series so far. However, I do expect some sharp money on SD at some point. I have this game set at +119 because Dickey really does not have much of an edge over Volquez. When you consider that SD is familiar with Dickey's knuckleball, the wind is blowing in which hurts the knuckleball's movement and it might rain which also hurts the movement of Dickey's primary pitch and Volquez starts to look a lot better. It's like russian roulette when backing teams like the Pads, Cubs, etc., but when the value is there I will take it and I am rolling with the Pads for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Reds -1RL (-116) 1x (Locked)

This is a case of pitchers going in opposite directions. Latos has been on fire and Moyer has been struggling mightily. It's never a bad idea to back the Reds when the face weak lefties considering they hit lefties at a top 10 in the league clip. I have the Reds set at -179 on the ML and they are currently in the -160's. I will reduce the juice, risk the push and play Cincy on the -1RL for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nationals/Braves under (6.5)(+100) 1x (Locked)

Love this play and will probably add to it down the road. I have this game set at 5 even giving us quite a bit of value, especially if we see this go up to 7. It's starting to drop in price so that is doubtful. Both pitcher's have had a great start and rank in the top of WAR with scores in the 1.5 range this early in the season. Danley is the ump and a pretty neutral guy considering his slightly above average strike rate and his recent under lean. The wind is blowing directly in pretty strong at 14 mph which helps a fly ball guy like Beachy. I expect a classic low scoring Sunday night game and I am rolling with the under for 1x now and probably more down the line. Good luck.

Play #4

Devils Rays/Red Sox over (10) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get better than -110 but this one is starting to hit -115 at some books including Pinny so I will take this while I can. I would not be surprised to see the market take it down though, even to 9.5. However, I can't risk getting a worse price or number. I have this game set at 11.1 and if you remember a few weaks ago we had the over in the matchup at 8 in TB and it ended right at that number with a push. Now, despite that push, the books are opening at 10. Are they showing their hand in this one or reacting to the market. Well, my model agrees that the over is the play today and most uninformed "bettors" love Hellickson's conventional numbers and will back the under while us more informed "investors" know that Hellickson is primed to get blown up especially against a top 5 offense and one he has just seen. Bucholz is even worse and there's no reason TB's top 10 offense can't get to him. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

Cubs/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)

I'll tempt fate with this under. I know we've seen steam on the over, but the under just got hit a bit at Pinny dropping it to -105 as I type and I am getting +105 so that's good enough for me on a total I have set at 5.8. I think the intense 90 degree heat on the east coast and midwest has something to do with the over steam on all these games, but Pittsburgh should be a bit overcast. Both starters are in bounce back spots and rested enough to pitch deep into the game to avoid the bullpens. Layne is the ump and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.