LTA's MLB Plays

[taxe91]

FWIW one of the best free posters I know also has Bal +135. This line should drop.

already down to +131 on my book

[fitguy67]

down to -128 now at Pinny...

BTW, the TAM-1 is now a hair better at -107...but that's the "off the shelf" line...i "rolled my own" and got -103.68...3.22 points that would otherwise be donated to Pinny as a hidden "service fee" for the convenience of the -1 line...that's more than a 3% better line for taking a few seconds and doing it myself

[Love The Action]

down to -128 now at Pinny...

BTW, the TAM-1 is now a hair better at -107...but that's the "off the shelf" line...i "rolled my own" and got -103.68...3.22 points that would otherwise be donated to Pinny as a hidden "service fee" for the convenience of the -1 line...that's more than a 3% better line for taking a few seconds and doing it myself

How do you figure? A -152 ml and +140 rl does not give you -103. What numbers did you get?

[Les_Nuts]

How do you figure? A -152 ml and +140 rl does not give you -103. What numbers did you get?

I got -150 ml and +145 RL to give -102 I think

[Love The Action]

I got -150 ml and +145 RL to give -102 I think

Oh ok....good numbers. 5d and my local has not gone higher than +140 on the rl part. GL

[SlickRick1382]

FWIW one of the best free posters I know also has Bal +135. This line should drop.

Who's FWIW?

[taxe91]

Who's FWIW?

For What Its Worth

[pacocn]

FWIW one of the best free posters I know also has Bal +135. This line should drop.

Are you speaking about yourself in the 3rd person or Lta?

[CHAZ]

GL on your big play today LTA!

[daddyv]

GL on the Os play...my biggest play this season for 3U, its good to see we beat the closing line +122 now n going down...just hope it cashes!!!

[Madison]

Romero , 21 BB in his last 23 innings (4 games). GL

[jj108]

LTA, how are you sir? if you were leaning on the pads and cubs today who would you lean on more, the pads have stults on the mound and the cubbies have Samardzija?

[jj108]

or the Over under at 10 and being juiced at -120 some other spots have it at 10.5 on the cubs game

[SlickRick1382]

Anyone considering a play on 1st 5 innings if they like the Under?

[SlickRick1382]

Went out on a limb and played total Runs U6 for 1st 5 and No Runs 1st. We'll see how much I lose shortly xD

[brucethebear]

Went out on a limb and played total Runs U6 for 1st 5 and No Runs 1st. We'll see how much I lose shortly xD

Good work mate. Easy cash.

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season

Play #1

Orioles ML (+136) 3x (Locked)

I am going to play this aggressively because we are getting a ton of value based on the public perception that Romero is an elite pitcher and Arrieta is a red-headed stepchild. However, we know that Arrieta is actually pitching much better than Romero as evidenced by the advanced stats. Consequently, even though the public looks to see that Romero has the better ERA and a 5-1 w/l record, the sharp money knows that Arrieta is the play in this game because of hits better WAR by .3, the better K% by 2% and the better tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA by about 1 point. When you consider that Baltimore is killing lefties right now ranking in the top 5 of most significant statistical categories, while Toronto is struggling against righties in the bottom 10 in the same categories and it becomes clear why I am playing this so aggressively. I have this game at +116 which gives us a ton of value at this number and I suspect we see a close around +120. As we hit this mid part of the season, it's time to get more aggressive and I love the value on this play. I am rolling with the Orioles for 3x. Good luck.

Play #2

Devil Rays -1RL (-108) 1.5x (Locked)

I love that TB is coming off a low scoring game against Sale. Now it's time for a little Humber and I expect their top 10 offense to be ready. Bottom line is that there is really no comparison between Shields and Humber and I expect a rather easy victory for TB tomorrow. I am rolling with the Devil Rays on the -1RL for 1.5x. Good luck.

Play #3

Nationals/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 1.5x (Locked)

Love this play as well as the rest of today's card. I have this game set at 6.09 and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[CHAZ]

Play #3

Nationals/Marlins under (7.5)(-105) 1.5x (Locked)

Love this play as well as the rest of today's card. I have this game set at 6.09 and I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Do you know if the roof is opened or closed?

CLOSED = 16-4 O/U, 10.15 Runs/Game, 1.45 HR/Game

[gohabsgo]

Do you know if the roof is opened or closed?

CLOSED = 16-4 O/U, 10.15 Runs/Game, 1.45 HR/Game

Should be opened, thunderstorms right now but weather.com projecting a clear sky all night

[Love The Action]

What is going on with pitchers killing us with their poor fielding. Matt Garza has killed two of our unders with throwing errors to first base and now tonight Arrieta cost us a run with an error. It's infinitely more difficult to win when you are giving out free runs. Make the earn it damnit.

[Love The Action]

Do you know if the roof is opened or closed?

CLOSED = 16-4 O/U, 10.15 Runs/Game, 1.45 HR/Game

Yeah, but I have not heard that there is any specific reason for the high scoring like the wind tunnel effect at Arlington or whatnot. To me, that's a number that will even out as more games are played when the roof is closed. In any event, we will need at least 2 - 3 seasons worth of games with the roof closed to draw any meaningful conclusions. GL

[fitguy67]

How do you figure? A -152 ml and +140 rl does not give you -103. What numbers did you get?

at 4:50am/EST when i hit it and a few mins before i posted...ML=-152, RL=+143, available -1RL=-107

rolling your own (risking $100 for example) involves:
ML (-152)==> risk 60.32 to win 39.68
RL (+143)==>risk 39.68 to win 56.75

Combined==>risk 100 to win 96.43 (pushing if TAM wins by 1 run)
equivalent to -103.70 to win 100
aka. -103.70

which is 3.30 points better than the "off the shelf" (what I now consider "square") -107 posted at the same time that I reported in my post...that's 3.1% less chalk laid on the identical play at the identical book at the identical time with the identical ML and RL's on the board.
_______________________

But you're right, for the example you site...ML=-152 and RL=+140...the "true" -1RL odds (ie. that are available if you take the trouble to do it yourself) is a bit worse than that...as you know, it's exactly -105 (ML=-60.32/+39.68.....RL=-39.68/+55.56===>-100/+95.24==>-105/+100)
...and at this combination, the -1RL available at Pinny (and I assume at most/all other books that offer the convenience) at the same time would have to be AT LEAST two points worse than that..cuz it was already -107 in my earlier example...so it would have adjusted to -108/-109 to make up for the lower RL in this case...in order to maintain their characteristic yet-little-known "surcharge" over the true -1RL price


my point (which I've beaten to death by now!!!) was that the only way to get the true mathematical (where "RL-win finances the ML-risk") -1RL is to do it yourself...otherwise you're being unwittingly "taxed" 2 or more points for placing your bet the easy way
_____________

sorry i didn't state the ML and RL quotes that went along with the TAM-1, -107 when i reported it earlier today...

[Love The Action]

at 4:50am/EST when i hit it and a few mins before i posted...ML=-152, RL=+143, available -1RL=-107

rolling your own (risking $100 for example) involves:
ML (-152)==> risk 60.32 to win 39.68
RL (+143)==>risk 39.68 to win 56.75

Combined==>risk 100 to win 96.43
equivalent to -103.70 to win 100
aka. -103.70

which is 3.30 points better than the "off the shelf" (what I now consider "square") -107 posted at the same time

That was a great RL price....good luck buddy

[gambler1270]

arrieta blowing it all around.poor fielding,poor pitching.baltimore has made 3 errors all ready.5-1.still early hopefuuly the o's bats will wake up

[Love The Action]

arrieta blowing it all around.poor fielding,poor pitching.baltimore has made 3 errors all ready.5-1.still early hopefuuly the o's bats will wake up

Sucks....tough to predict three errors in one game. The Orioles are middle of the pack in most field stats, so there's no reason to expect three farging errors. Very frustrating. No regrets about the play, but definitely a frustrating way to lose if indeed they do not explode. Good luck.

[Catchn_Picks]

Baltimore tonight was the underdog play of the day among serious, credible cappers. They caught fire last night, bottomed out mid day and came a bit back up. But they were on a lot of lists of people I respect.

Sometimes "fashionable" plays get a bit scary for whatever reason.

I think you released this before everyone last night LTA, but I kept cringing when I saw so many others piling on. Romero at home should have been a steam play and Balt should have been a sharp.

4 runs down is not insurmountable tho. Especially when you consider the bullpen meltdowns we've seen this year.

[Love The Action]

Baltimore tonight was the underdog play of the day among serious, credible cappers. They caught fire last night, bottomed out mid day and came a bit back up. But they were on a lot of lists of people I respect.

Sometimes "fashionable" plays get a bit scary for whatever reason.

I think you released this before everyone last night LTA, but I kept cringing when I saw so many others piling on. Romero at home should have been a steam play and Balt should have been a sharp.

4 runs down is not insurmountable tho. Especially when you consider the bullpen meltdowns we've seen this year.

Like who....touts or other real cappers?

Toronto was a big "public" play though....ofcourse that really means squat these days.

[daddyv]

ah well baltimore play is pretty much finished now...still could be a break even day if the other two hit

[SlickRick1382]

ah well baltimore play is pretty much finished now...still could be a break even day if the other two hit

Never over. Even down 8-1 they wound up tacking on 3 more in an inning. 8-4 is still plausible although if Arrieta did what he was supposed to do there is no doubt we most likely would of cashed.

[Smutbucket]

anyone see all these "questionable" calls too....I saw 2 questionable strikeouts, one of em wasnt even questionable it was obviously not a check swing by andino at his 2nd at bat, yet home plate ump called out without even checking.....and then i saw rediculous walk in the 3rd i think it was yunel escobar right before lawrie knocked in the 2.....

I turned game off but then I saw wieters got ejected? anyone see why? was he argueing a legit bad call?

[Catchn_Picks]

Like who....touts or other real cappers?

Toronto was a big "public" play though....ofcourse that really means squat these days.

Please, give me enough credit to know the difference between touts and cappers with solid records. I would never breach your thread with names of other posters. That would be silly and demeaning. I respectfully told you that I saw, rather unusually, that Baltimore was a live dog among others that I respect. Either I am lying or telling the truth based upon my review only. It could be different for others. The web is obviously big.

I also told you that these postings appeared long after you posted Balt as a 3U play, so you did not get the idea that I would ever credit you with following anyone, but rather being ahead of the curve among those that I respect.

As far as Toronto as a public play:

According to SBR (5D), Balt opened as +132, bottomed at 10:13 am at +115 and closed as +124.

Toronto opened at -142, bottomed at 10:13 at -125 and came back to -134.

This does not qualify as a public play imo.

The overall intent of my comment was to express surprise that Toronto did not pick up steam and Balt closed well below their opening number. Judging by your write-up on the game, I would have thought that you would have agreed.

No insult or mean-spirited comment was ever intended. That is not my style.

BOL

[Love The Action]

Please, give me enough credit to know the difference between touts and cappers with solid records. I would never breach your thread with names of other posters. That would be silly and demeaning. I respectfully told you that I saw, rather unusually, that Baltimore was a live dog among others that I respect. Either I am lying or telling the truth based upon my review only. It could be different for others. The web is obviously big.

I also told you that these postings appeared long after you posted Balt as a 3U play, so you did not get the idea that I would ever credit you with following anyone, but rather being ahead of the curve among those that I respect.

As far as Toronto as a public play:

According to SBR (5D), Balt opened as +132, bottomed at 10:13 am at +115 and closed as +124.

Toronto opened at -142, bottomed at 10:13 at -125 and came back to -134.

This does not qualify as a public play imo.

The overall intent of my comment was to express surprise that Toronto did not pick up steam and Balt closed well below their opening number. Judging by your write-up on the game, I would have thought that you would have agreed.

No insult or mean-spirited comment was ever intended. That is not my style.

BOL

I think we got our signals crossed bud....No worries...I was just wondering who else was on Balty that's all. Some people check all the boards like the tout boards and what not, I was just wondering if that "Lang" guy was on Balty.

As far as a "public" play, I generally define that as one where 60% of all wagers is one one side. In this case, Toronto was around 65% or more at SI, SSpy, Score/Odds, etc.

If you are going to look at line movement, forget about 5D and just follow Pinny. That's the market that really matters and 5D basically mirrors their moves.

Good luck buddy...we're going to need it.

[Smutbucket]

cordero warming up! we have a chance!

[Catchn_Picks]

Thanks LTA, I did not know the public percentages, I just followed the line move. So, truthfully I just had only a part of the story.

Overall tho, it is a very strong dog play that went against the grain of the public perceptions which is required to win over time.

Win or lose, I loved the contrarian play.



Mia under looks good right now. We are overdue on the unders.

BOL

[ebbearsfb1]

arrieta always screws me over..

piece of shyt, hes garbage, wont touch his games rest of the year