LTA's MLB Plays

[bleedtoledo]

The balls are juiced, commish wants more offense - fills seats. You saw how that kid on the Reds literally threw his bat at the ball & hit a dinger. The damn bat wasn't even in his hands!!

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/31/2012

Play #1

Astros ML (+112) 1x (Locked)

May add to this in a bit. I have the Astros set at +102 and I am rolling with Houston for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Tigers/Red Sox under (9)(+110) 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at 8.01 and I am rolling with the under for 1. Good luck.

[paco]

Yanks miss Mariano

[taxe91]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/30/2012

Play #1

Yankees (+102) 1.5x (Locked)

As I mentioned before, I have the Yanks set at -105 giving us decent value at plus odds. I will back the better starting pitcher and the team looking to avoid the sweep by rolling with the Yankees for 1.5x. Good luck.

[aznbluff]

LTA I have a question for you, up to you if you decide to answer it. You seem like an experienced, intelligent and, thus, successful bettor. What is your average ROI like monthly? yearly? What should I be aiming for month to month and year to year ROI wise.

Is over 10% sustainable or is that a nice benchmark to try to hit on a yearly basis?

[taxe91]

With all that said, however, the amount of bullpen meltdowns is getting crazy. I have not done any specific research, but it seems like bullpens have been horrible. Perhaps someone can check out fangraphs to compare league-wide bullpen numbers from the last couple seasons to this season (especially if you can compare monthly splits). I would venture to say the league-wide bullpen numbers for tERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA are up while K%, K/9, K/BB, SwStr% and GB/FB are all down.

I have actually looked at this recently and its interesting, from 2008-current tERA, xFIP, and SIERA were all in a constant downtrend and I believe K%, BB% were fairly constant. What I did notice out of the norm though was that for the first time since 2005, NL ERA is higher than AL ERA. I'm not sure if that's relevant to you but I have noticed that a certain Cubs reliever has been responsible for a few of your lost plays..

[Love The Action]

LTA I have a question for you, up to you if you decide to answer it. You seem like an experienced, intelligent and, thus, successful bettor. What is your average ROI like monthly? yearly? What should I be aiming for month to month and year to year ROI wise.

Is over 10% sustainable or is that a nice benchmark to try to hit on a yearly basis?

Nice topic, of course i will answer. I track ROI per sports market on a seasonal basis. Because of variance, I really don't concern myself with monthly fluctuations. Although, with that said, I always try to mirror or outpace the performance of my 401k stock portfolio which earns an ROI between 3% to 6% every six months from a majority of conservative investment strategies.

My two true investment sports markets are the NBA and MLB where my units are $500+, compared to the NCAAF and NFL markets in which my units are half that amount and in which I invest mainly as a challenge and for fun (although I am still profitable in those markets my ROI and zscore is not up to par of my NBA and MLB investments). Consequently, I like my ROI for the NBA and MLB markets to be no less than 5% and closer to 10% or above.

It is immaterial to worry about a monthly ROI because variance will curtail your ability to sustain a high ROI on a regular basis. Instead, at the end of each season you should try to be in that meaty 5% to 10%+ range. For example, this shortened NBA season has been a bit down for me as I peaked at +25x by March but hit a cold spell in April dropping me back down to +5x. Now I am back at +14x which puts my seasonal ROI at 8.8% and still in the meaty part of my preferred range. Had I not hit that cold spell or had a full 82 game regular season my ROI in NBA would be higher. Nevertheless, if I can hit +20x by the End of the NBA finals, I will get that ROI around 11% for a total profit exceeding $10K.

Therefore, to answer your question, I would not worry about your monthly ROI as much as your seasonal ROI in each market and you should be shooting for a minimum ROI of between 5% and 10%+. To me, your final profit numbers on the last day of each respective season are what matters. Good luck.

[EXhoosier10]

Just want to clarify, LTA; your ROI is based on amount bet on all games and not your initial bankroll, correct?

[Love The Action]

MLB 2012 Regular Season 5/30/2012 Recap

2 - 3 = -0.20x

MLB 2012 Regular Season

123 - 117 - 15 = -0.49x

Just can't seem to get on a roll but we'll eventually get there, it's just a matter of "when" not "if". We do improve to 2-4 on plays of 2x or more. Good luck on Thursday.

[Love The Action]

Just want to clarify, LTA; your ROI is based on amount bet on all games and not your initial bankroll, correct?

Correct....but broken down by market not with all markets bundled together.

[BennyFang]

Is there any merit to considering Dodgers today? I haven't run any models but K-Rod has pitched 3 days in a row, Axford 4 days in a row.....might not be available today. Maybe the over???

[Love The Action]

I have actually looked at this recently and its interesting, from 2008-current tERA, xFIP, and SIERA were all in a constant downtrend and I believe K%, BB% were fairly constant. What I did notice out of the norm though was that for the first time since 2005, NL ERA is higher than AL ERA. I'm not sure if that's relevant to you but I have noticed that a certain Cubs reliever has been responsible for a few of your lost plays..

Hmmmm....so the numbers do not show the relief pitching is worse this season than the previous two seasons?

[aznbluff]

Would you say that 10+% is achievable and sustainable on a regular basis. I'm currently at 8% across all markets but Im still making mistakes and bad plays left and right.

I feel like I should be able to eventually improve to 9 or 10% but then also realize that mistakes will always be present and it doesn't take many to drop your ROI back to the 7ish range.

How many seasons do you get in the 10+ range? 1 every 3 years? Or more regularly than that

[Love The Action]

Looks like I really erred by waiting and not going bigger on the Astros today. They are down from the +112 I got last night to -103 now. Hopefully we get some buy back on the Rox and we can get some more down later on Houston.

[Love The Action]

Would you say that 10+% is achievable and sustainable on a regular basis. I'm currently at 8% across all markets but Im still making mistakes and bad plays left and right.

I feel like I should be able to eventually improve to 9 or 10% but then also realize that mistakes will always be present and it doesn't take many to drop your ROI back to the 7ish range.

How many seasons do you get in the 10+ range? 1 every 3 years? Or more regularly than that

While i have wagered on sports since high school and have worked on my models for about five years, this will only be my third season of investing full time in NBA and MLB. Both of my first two seasons of NBA and MLB have ended above 10% ROI. As I mentioned earlier, this season's NBA is at 8.8% and MLB is currently negative. I expect both to improve but as long as I am in that meaty 5% to 10%+ range on the last day of each market's respective season, then I will have done my job. 10% is nice, but don't get fixated on that number. As long as you profit long term, then that is what counts. Good luck.

[slikec]

Houston is +115 now

[Donkeys2012]

Beckett is ******* awful. Gives up single and doubles to guys batting under .200 total turd.

[SlickRick1382]

Talk about a rough start to a game ....

[Love The Action]

Brutal....

[SlickRick1382]

Brutal....

Norris being relieved already after 1 2/3 innings. Speechless ...

[Love The Action]

Norris being relieved already after 1 2/3 innings. Speechless ...

That's what Coors will do to you. The only good part is that Guthrie is still pitching and...well...this is Coors. You are never out of it in Colorado. Gotta scores some runs though.

[SlickRick1382]

Tough when it's 9-1 already but crazier things have happened.

[Redscot]

Plenty of time in Colorado....Lets get a scoreless inning in Boston . LTA, Tomorrow I should have some time in the morning, gonna do some research on the bullpens relative to the last few years. Will check in hopefully

[SlickRick1382]

They let Cabrera steal 2nd and some errors so he gets to 3rd. ... Amazing.... Then

of course Prince Fielder brings him home with a triple of his own.... Lets not even mention that it could of been caught ...


Edit:

One run top of the 8th, two more top 9th to kill the under. Brutal stretch of games ...

[Love The Action]

They let Cabrera steal 2nd and some errors so he gets to 3rd. ... Amazing....Then

of course Prince Fielder brings him home with a triple of his own.... Lets not even mention that it could of bene caught ...

I can't buy a break dude. It's unreal. When it rains it pours.

[Redscot]

[Catchn_Picks]

Can we get MLB to make the game just 8 innings long?

Longest streak of late inning bad beats I have seen in years.

[Love The Action]

I bet my under lean on Brewers/Dodgers cashes though...typical.

[Redscot]

I bet my under lean on Brewers/Dodgers cashes though...typical.

It's been a bad run.....bank roll management aside,would probably be a good time to bet heavier....variance has to bounce back. Actually you may have been applying this reasoning this week if I am not mistaken.

[SlickRick1382]

I bet my under lean on Brewers/Dodgers cashes though...typical.

Don' be so sure. Already 3 runs thru 2 innings.

Had bases loaded no outs in the Astros game and Carlos Lee (you'd figure the guy you'd want up in that position) ground into a double play....

[Dexter]

The balls are juiced, commish wants more offense - fills seats. You saw how that kid on the Reds literally threw his bat at the ball & hit a dinger. The damn bat wasn't even in his hands!!

what do you think of this LTA? All it takes is a slightly tighter stitching on the baseball to change things up.

now the big question is, does MLB have to publicize this type of information?

[No coincidences]

what do you think of this LTA? All it takes is a slightly tighter stitching on the baseball to change things up.

now the big question is, does MLB have to publicize this type of information?

Are you kidding me?

Baseball has to do something. Their stars -- especially the older ones -- are dropping like flies because no one can be on the juice anymore. Most fans don't want to see a 3-1 game, and they don't want to see games without the big names. Can't do a whole lot about the latter, so they'll do something about the former instead.

People are under the false assumption that steroids were there to get guys big and powerful. I'd say they were more used to recover from injury than anything else, and now we're seeing the side effects of not having that quick recovery concoction.

[Dexter]

Are you kidding me?

Baseball has to do something. Their stars -- especially the older ones -- are dropping like flies because no one can be on the juice anymore. Most fans don't want to see a 3-1 game, and they don't want to see games without the big names. Can't do a whole lot about the latter, so they'll do something about the former instead.

People are under the false assumption that steroids were there to get guys big and powerful. I'd say they were more used to recover from injury than anything else, and now we're seeing the side effects of not having that quick recovery concoction.

am i kidding you about what?

[No coincidences]

am i kidding you about what?

Why would they have to publicize that info?

[pacocn]

Lta, Red we have another thread started
"bet like your next meal depends on it" would love
to see you guys throw something in it. Red you cashed your select last week.
Do it again